Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26) (user search)
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  Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)  (Read 136500 times)
Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« on: July 12, 2021, 11:11:57 AM »
« edited: July 12, 2021, 04:08:24 PM by Josh Shapiro for Governor »
A new internal poll commissioned by Shontel Brown's campaign shows her trailing Turner 43-36%.

https://t.co/wcSiUFPgi7

Yes, it is an internal poll and you typically want to be leading in those, but the Brown team's past surveys have shown her trailing by 30+ points.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1 on: July 15, 2021, 06:25:03 PM »
« Edited: July 19, 2021, 04:49:56 PM by Josh Shapiro for Governor »
Yeah, it's pretty obvious that Turner's internal polls aren't as rosy as they were a few months ago.

I still think she’s gonna win, though.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #2 on: August 03, 2021, 06:48:40 PM »
Oh damn.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #3 on: August 03, 2021, 08:07:22 PM »
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #4 on: August 03, 2021, 08:52:31 PM »
The fact that Turner went from a 35-point lead in her own polls to outright losing this race is just incredible.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #5 on: August 03, 2021, 09:18:14 PM »
Turner conceded.

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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #6 on: August 03, 2021, 09:51:10 PM »
Not that it really matters at this point, but the AP officially made the call:
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #7 on: August 04, 2021, 12:04:29 PM »
IDK if anyone posted this yet, but apparently both campaigns’ internal polls near the end of the race showed Brown was winning:
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #8 on: June 28, 2022, 09:44:44 PM »
Oh wow, ok. This is interesting.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #9 on: August 09, 2022, 11:20:10 PM »


Same thing we saw with the Kansas amendment.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #10 on: August 09, 2022, 11:24:34 PM »
« Edited: August 09, 2022, 11:48:56 PM by Josh Shapiro for Governor »
I'm very eager to see the Olmsted numbers. Hopefully they quit dragging feet over there.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #11 on: August 09, 2022, 11:38:46 PM »
« Edited: August 09, 2022, 11:43:09 PM by Josh Shapiro for Governor »
Boom and boom

Biden won Winona by 0.4% and lost Mower by 5.8%.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #12 on: August 10, 2022, 12:11:43 AM »
Ettinger wins Blue Earth County 55-43%. Big over performance from Biden (51-46%).
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #13 on: August 10, 2022, 12:42:38 AM »
It's interesting how mediocre the GOP's special election performances have been so far during the Biden era, especially when compared to how the Democrats did post-Trump inauguration leading up to the 2018 midterms. The KS-04 special in 2017 saw a 26 point shift leftward, SC-05 saw a 17 point shift, and PA-18, which voted for Trump by nearly 20 points, was an outright flip. We've seen nothing close to that so far from the Republicans and yet we're supposed to believe that they're going to have a 2010-style red wave election victory.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #14 on: August 10, 2022, 11:01:07 AM »
Conservative election Twitter is in full cope mode over the MN-01 results. You love to see it.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #15 on: August 10, 2022, 11:28:55 AM »
Quote from: Minnesota Mike on August 10, 2022, 11:09:50 AM
Quote from: Josh Shapiro for Governor on August 10, 2022, 11:01:07 AM
Conservative election Twitter is in full cope mode over the MN-01 results. You love to see it.

FWIW I actually don't think this is a great result for Democrats, not bad, expected, but not great. MN-01 was never as red as the Trump numbers would indicate, last nights election is Republicans largest congressional  margin of victory there since 2004.

If a devastatingly large red wave was coming, then they would’ve won this district by far more than just 4 points. They didn’t and that’s why the results were good for the Democrats.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #16 on: August 16, 2022, 11:52:27 AM »
Quote from: Devout Centrist on August 15, 2022, 10:57:00 PM
Think Molinaro wins by a lot and people here freak out.

Make sure you all have SL on ignore for tonight.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #17 on: August 16, 2022, 04:14:20 PM »
Quote from: gracile on August 16, 2022, 02:31:56 PM
Quote from: Hardboiled Weevil on August 16, 2022, 02:20:07 PM
Quote from: Josh Shapiro for Governor on August 16, 2022, 11:52:27 AM
Quote from: Devout Centrist on August 15, 2022, 10:57:00 PM
Think Molinaro wins by a lot and people here freak out.

Make sure you all have SL on ignore for tonight.
I thought the election was on the 23rd.

It is, along with NY-23. Tonight is just AK-AL.

Yeah, my bad. But it's good to get a head start so you don't forget.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #18 on: August 23, 2022, 10:24:40 PM »
Win or lose, Malinaro was expected to win this race comfortably. If he’s struggling to win a Biden +1 district…
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #19 on: August 23, 2022, 10:33:40 PM »
Oh my God. Wow.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #20 on: August 23, 2022, 10:37:33 PM »
I would give BOTH of my kidneys to be able to be a fly on the wall of the RNC conference room tomorrow morning.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #21 on: August 23, 2022, 10:56:32 PM »
« Edited: August 23, 2022, 11:24:57 PM by Josh Shapiro for Governor »
Quote from: Ferguson97 on August 23, 2022, 10:54:27 PM


Off topic, but Youngkin definitely would've lost in Virginia if the election was held this year.

Mayra Flores may have even lost as well if her special was held after Dobbs…
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #22 on: August 31, 2022, 07:04:21 PM »
OH MY GOD
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #23 on: February 21, 2023, 08:40:57 PM »
Damn, these results are wild. I know that low turnout special elections can give strange outcomes, but it's nice to see that Democratic voters continue to be engaged and energetic.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #24 on: November 20, 2023, 05:13:13 PM »
If the Republican over performs the media narrative will be that this is evidence of voter backlash against Biden and that he’s doomed. If the Democrat over performs, it will mean nothing because low turnout. Just preparing you all Smiley
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