Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)

[Roll Roons]

Why would anyone even want this seat, it is 100% going to be redistricting into oblivion.
If the OH-GOP is smart they would break this and the Youngstown seat up while making a Cincinnati Dem pack. The map would look very nice (won’t prompt backlash) and would still be a pretty safe way to net a seat.

I'm pretty sure this is a VRA seat.

[Roll Roons]

People are acting like Turner is a total joke. She was an Ohio Senate Minority Whip.

And? Ohio Democrats are a joke whose only success in the past decade has been Sherrod's reelection victories. Their incompetence rivals Florida Dems.

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New Mexico does it right in terms of timing. And for a special, I think it's ok to have the parties pick the nominees.

[Roll Roons]

Wasn't Stivers the one who demanded the incredibly awkward splitting of Franklin county in 2011?

He lives there, so maybe. Apparently, the original plan was to split Columbus between four Republican districts. Given what's happened there, the Ohio GOP was smart to cede a sink.

[Roll Roons]

I'm fairly sure she holds Stivers' old State Senate seat.

Assuming she gets nominated, she will likely put OH-15 completely out of play, but her Senate seat is more likely than not to flip.

[Roll Roons]

Boom:

https://twitter.com/EvilChristos/status/1422732300824064007

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Ok, the previous one was a joke account.

For real tho:
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1422732738839392258

[Roll Roons]

Allison Russo has been quietly running a very aggressive campaign for OH-15 - we're not likely to see a lot of polling here and there are no signs yet the GOP is concerned about a district that is quite Republican, but possibly worth keeping an eye on.

I obviously expect a Republican win, but the race not getting any attention and therefore not being nationalized can only play to Russo's benefit.

[Roll Roons]

So here's something that understandably went unnoticed: Mike Carey won OH-15 by just under 17 points, while Trump had won it by 14.

This result was definitely not consistent with what we saw in NJ or VA. Why was the swing in this district so much smaller?

[Roll Roons]

An as expected result in FL-20 with almost all the vote in.


Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick- Democrat 41,881-  78.4%

Jason Mariner- Republican- 10,636 19.9%

Cherfilus-McCormick improved slightly on Biden's numbers.

Did any special elections end with a republican overperformance compared to Biden ?

I think the Ohio ones both did, but it was slight. Carey in OH-15 actually did far worse than Stivers did in 2020.

TX-06 isn't a perfect comparison because of the format, but the collective GOP vote share in the first round was far better than Trump's.

[Roll Roons]

Are any right-leaners getting a bit worried about the lack of over-performances? I know they haven’t been very competitive, but still you’d expect some noticeable movement

Ah yes, a notorious lack of overperformances.

[Roll Roons]

Based upon the rural counties nearly entirely in so far, Brooks appears to be doing best and Lancaster where she overperformed Biden in Seward County quite a bit. Flood appears to be overperforming in rural counties in the Northern and Western parts of the district

Don’t you mean Sarpy? She’s only down there by 4, Trump won it by 12.

Sarpy is split between NE-01 and NE-02. I'm not sure how Trump did in NE-01's share of it.

[Roll Roons]

What were the campaigns like? Did Flood get lazy and did Brooks work super hard?

Also I feel like this district actually may have flipped if Trump was still president.

[Roll Roons]

This was a real shocker. It seems like Lincoln drove pretty much all of the leftward shift? Did the rural counties also vote more D than in 2020?

Aside from suburban backlash following Roe, I can't think of why this would be so close, but also I know very little about the candidate quality. But if it is Roe, it's probably a temporary thing given how recent that news is.

Waukesha, Ozaukee problems coming for RonJohn? It won't be a temporary thing there with the 1800s law on the books.

This should make Dems take a second look at what seats are targets....maybe writing off NJ-7 is a bad idea in light of the suburban trends.

If anything, I'd say there may be less backlash in blue states because there's no chance that abortion would become illegal.

[Roll Roons]

I have to say, both Flood and Brooks are like the epitome of "Generic R" and "Generic D" on basically everything. Obviously I didn't witness the campaign first hand but everything about them makes it seem like they were grown in a lab.

They were nominated by the parties instead of elected via primaries, which is generally a breeding ground for generic candidates.

It seems to depend. In this case, yes.

But don't forget that Mike Lee came into office because he beat a more moderate incumbent at a party convention.

[Roll Roons]

Honestly, perhaps the GOP needs some cold water splashed in its face.

Shut the f**k up about 2020. Do not advocate for total bans on abortion. Do not say you want Obergefell overturned.

[Roll Roons]

One aspect of these specials that hasn't been discussed at all: New York finally (mostly) got it together when it comes to counting votes!!!!

[Roll Roons]

So... is whoever wins this seat gonna keep it or is it just gonna be a three-month rental?

In the event of Peltola winning, Begich can absolutely attack Palin as someone unable to win a statewide race in Alaska which might help him with first preferences in the general; conversely, in the event of Palin winning (particularly if it's somewhat decisive), more Alaskan Dems might decide that a Dem is unable to win statewide and vote Begich first to try to eliminate Palin (just as they'll vote for Murkowski first).

On the other hand, incumbency benefit may help out. Will be very interesting to see.

I think if Peltola wins, Republicans will swallow their pride and have Begich drop out and take the chance that Palin can win head-to-head.

Peltola only has a chance because Palin is so unpopular. Why would Republicans support her?

[Roll Roons]

Candidate. Quality. Matters. Never let anyone ever tell you otherwise.

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https://twitter.com/ryanobles/status/1628193276258910210

Surprise surprise: all three are in their early 50s.

[Roll Roons]

Since specials are weird:
https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1628207661123620866?cxt=HHwWhMC-3bePx5gtA...

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/UtahGOP/status/1672755267212292099?cxt=HHwWhsDRpbGD6bYuAAAA

[Roll Roons]

Woah:
https://twitter.com/UtahGOP/status/1672781581747118081?cxt=HHwWgoDT7Yv_9LYuAAAA

[Roll Roons]

Which Utah Republican is the least insane?

Edwards would make Brian Fitzpatrick look like Matt Gaetz.

[Roll Roons]

I feel like that Washington number was quite a bit weaker than expected for Maloy. Pure tossup.