Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Damn I wanted Hughes, Malloy will be a meh normiecon like Blake Moore.
At least this all but guarantees Edwards is DOA.

Democrats, can we please swap Nevada and Utah? We don't want the Mormons.

Alls well ends well.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Piute County is in. Maloy 76%, Edwards 9%.

That ain't good.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

If Maloy kills it in rural southern UT, she could end up close to Edwards. It might come down to the St. George area.

[Blue3]

I put in the RI special election megathread, will put here too:



Here’s some potential National politics takeaways

-Obama/Biden connections were most important to Dem primary voters.

-the Biden/Obama connection was more important than demographics (RI is mostly White/Latino, less than 10% black, less than 1% Asian or Native American or other). And there was a lot of talk about electing the first Latina, who would be representative of RI’s rising demographic, but even if they didn’t split that vote (mostly between Sandra Cano and Sabina Matos) it wouldn’t have been enough. Cano and Matos combined would still be behind both Amo and Regunberg.

-the Biden/Obama connection was more important than pure progressivism, which got Regunberg far (including Sanders and AOC in endorsements) but not all the way. But this could also be due to the attacks on Regunberg’s father-in-law creating a super PAC to fund him. But Regunberg himself was clearly the closest to the national progressive model, especially on class issues and climate change, while Sandra Cano and others were more of a local issues based progressive

- the Biden/Obama connection was more important than other interest group spending and support, with Gun Control and Pro-Choice/Abortion very much favoring Sabina Matos

- the Biden/Obama connection was more important than other labor Union support, which was mostly going towards Sandra Cano


https://twitter.com/GrahamVyse/status/1699243569813279180?s=20

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=540000.150

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Saw on Twitter that for Edwards to win, she can't be more than 25 points behind Maloy in Washington County. Might be tough. Maloy seems positioned to sweep southern Utah, and although Edwards will do better in St. George than the 9% she got in Piute County, even 30% for her there might be tough.

Not sure if everyone looked at the first returns, thought Edwards had it in the bag and left for the night, but Maloy honestly might be in a better position to win at the moment.

[Utah Neolib]

If Maloy kills it in rural southern UT, she could end up close to Edwards. It might come down to the St. George area.

Piute is the second least populated county in the state. Chill.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Saw on Twitter that for Edwards to win, she can't be more than 25 points behind Maloy in Washington County. Might be tough. Maloy seems positioned to sweep southern Utah, and although Edwards will do better in St. George than the 9% she got in Piute County, even 30% for her there might be tough.

Not sure if everyone looked at the first returns, thought Edwards had it in the bag and left for the night, but Maloy honestly might be in a better position to win at the moment.

Yeah I think I'd rather be Maloy at this point given that she will sweep the Southern rurals. I'm also not sure what the breakdown of the remaining 20% in SLC/Davis are, but they could all be election day.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

If Maloy kills it in rural southern UT, she could end up close to Edwards. It might come down to the St. George area.

Piute is the second least populated county in the state. Chill.

I know that. But it'll likely be indicative of the rural counties, and Edwards can't afford to be down 60% in that part of the district.

[Benjamin Frank]

I put in the RI special election megathread, will put here too:



Here’s some potential National politics takeaways

-Obama/Biden connections were most important to Dem primary voters.

-the Biden/Obama connection was more important than demographics (RI is mostly White/Latino, less than 10% black, less than 1% Asian or Native American or other). And there was a lot of talk about electing the first Latina, who would be representative of RI’s rising demographic, but even if they didn’t split that vote (mostly between Sandra Cano and Sabina Matos) it wouldn’t have been enough. Cano and Matos combined would still be behind both Amo and Regunberg.

-the Biden/Obama connection was more important than pure progressivism, which got Regunberg far (including Sanders and AOC in endorsements) but not all the way. But this could also be due to the attacks on Regunberg’s father-in-law creating a super PAC to fund him. But Regunberg himself was clearly the closest to the national progressive model, especially on class issues and climate change, while Sandra Cano and others were more of a local issues based progressive

- the Biden/Obama connection was more important than other interest group spending and support, with Gun Control and Pro-Choice/Abortion very much favoring Sabina Matos

- the Biden/Obama connection was more important than other labor Union support, which was mostly going towards Sandra Cano

I think the main takeaway is this was another Democratic primary win for the 'liberal' over the 'progressive.' And in this case, a progressive everyone thought had it in the bag. This may represent a backlash against the 'progressive' Democrats with renewed concern that excess government spending leads to inflation (even though there isn't actually much evidence that was much of a reason for the increase in inflation, but most voters aren't exactly experts in economics.)

[NewYorkExpress]

I don't think Edwards is getting enough in Salt Lake County to win.

It's still a little early, but I'd expect a call for Maloy within the hour.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

I don't think Edwards is getting enough in Salt Lake County to win.

It's still a little early, but I'd expect a call for Maloy within the hour.

Yeah I also think the outstanding vote in Salt Lake/Davis are election-day, meaning that Edwards's margins in those counties will decrease.

[Blue3]

I put in the RI special election megathread, will put here too:



Here’s some potential National politics takeaways

-Obama/Biden connections were most important to Dem primary voters.

-the Biden/Obama connection was more important than demographics (RI is mostly White/Latino, less than 10% black, less than 1% Asian or Native American or other). And there was a lot of talk about electing the first Latina, who would be representative of RI’s rising demographic, but even if they didn’t split that vote (mostly between Sandra Cano and Sabina Matos) it wouldn’t have been enough. Cano and Matos combined would still be behind both Amo and Regunberg.

-the Biden/Obama connection was more important than pure progressivism, which got Regunberg far (including Sanders and AOC in endorsements) but not all the way. But this could also be due to the attacks on Regunberg’s father-in-law creating a super PAC to fund him. But Regunberg himself was clearly the closest to the national progressive model, especially on class issues and climate change, while Sandra Cano and others were more of a local issues based progressive

- the Biden/Obama connection was more important than other interest group spending and support, with Gun Control and Pro-Choice/Abortion very much favoring Sabina Matos

- the Biden/Obama connection was more important than other labor Union support, which was mostly going towards Sandra Cano

I think the main takeaway is this was another Democratic primary win for the 'liberal' over the 'progressive.' And in this case, a progressive everyone thought had it in the bag. This may represent a backlash against the 'progressive' Democrats with renewed concern that excess government spending leads to inflation (even though there isn't actually much evidence that was much of a reason for the increase in inflation, but most voters aren't exactly experts in economics.)

Mmmm… no.

Outsiders thought Matos, and then Regunberg, had it in the bag.

Locals knew otherwise.

The SuperPAC attack on Regunberg really hurt him… it hurt his progressive credentials. It was the attack that hurt him more than any of his positions on the issues.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Apparently Washington County is going to drop any minute now.

If Edwards isn't getting 30-35% there, and if Maloy is more than 2:1 over Hough, it's callable for Maloy.

[NOVA Green]

Late to the party...

Anybody got data on EV vs ED numbers for UT?

[Tekken_Guy]

Apparently Washington County is going to drop any minute now.

If Edwards isn't getting 30-35% there, and if Maloy is more than 2:1 over Hough, it's callable for Maloy.

How much would Maloy need to win on that batch alone?

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Apparently Washington County is going to drop any minute now.

If Edwards isn't getting 30-35% there, and if Maloy is more than 2:1 over Hough, it's callable for Maloy.

How much would Maloy need to win on that batch alone?

Even 55-60% would be great for her chances

[Minnesota Mike]

I don't think Edwards is getting enough in Salt Lake County to win.

It's still a little early, but I'd expect a call for Maloy within the hour.

Yeah I also think the outstanding vote in Salt Lake/Davis are election-day, meaning that Edwards's margins in those counties will decrease.

I believe Utah is entirely vote by mail, I don't think there will be a huge difference between early votes and votes recieved today.

[Benjamin Frank]

I don't think Edwards is getting enough in Salt Lake County to win.

It's still a little early, but I'd expect a call for Maloy within the hour.

I'd be impressed if there were more votes reported within the hour.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

I don't think Edwards is getting enough in Salt Lake County to win.

It's still a little early, but I'd expect a call for Maloy within the hour.

Yeah I also think the outstanding vote in Salt Lake/Davis are election-day, meaning that Edwards's margins in those counties will decrease.

I believe Utah is entirely vote by mail, I don't think there will be a huge difference between early votes and votes recieved today.

https://apnews.com/article/election-utah-primary-congress-27bc321fe72490fb17e7a2a5ff946378

"Elections in Utah are conducted predominantly by mail, although voters have the option of voting in person on Election Day. Mail ballots may be received by Sept. 19 but must be postmarked by Tuesday."

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Garfield County came in. Maloy is beating Hough so badly there that Edwards placed ahead of Hough even though she only got 16%.

Edwards needs to pray that Hough can get to 25% in Washington.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Hough at 27% in Kane.

[Ferguson97]

Which Utah Republican is the least insane?

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Which Utah Republican is the least insane?

Edwards. She voted for Biden.

[Roll Roons]

Which Utah Republican is the least insane?

Edwards would make Brian Fitzpatrick look like Matt Gaetz.

[Sestak]

Sevier splits 54-23-23. That’s not bad for Edwards.