Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)

[Arizona Iced Tea]

This looks like a very high turnout election

[Birdish]

This looks like a very high turnout election

Utah, home of the mail in ballot. Makes every election ez pz.

[Matty]

Pretty amazing the dem is winning 65-27 in SLC, a county Romney won

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Pretty amazing the dem is winning 65-27 in SLC, a county Romney won

1. This isn't the whole county, the county is split between all 4 districts.
2. Romney had unusually good appeal to Utah because he's a Mormon. We'll probably never see his margins again for any R, anywhere in Utah.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Even in Salt Lake this is lackluster for dems. 66% vs McMullin getting 68%.

McMullen was pretty much the high water mark for Dems although technically he wasn't a Dem.  The margin will be somewhere between Trump's margin in 2020 (17?) and Stewart's in 2020 (26).

Which is the real takeaway here. The Utah GOP remains popular, even as the the population opposes Trumpism. Almost 10% for the indies should tell you where the people who voted against Trump but GOP downballot went.

It looks like how pro-life or pro-choice a place is is mostly determining outperformances/underperformances in specials, with the notable exception of MS-Gov (where Presley ran as pro-life).

[Roll Roons]

Pretty amazing the dem is winning 65-27 in SLC, a county Romney won

1. This isn't the whole county, the county is split between the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th districts.
2. Romney had unusually good appeal to Utah because he's a Mormon. We'll probably never see his margins again for any R, anywhere in Utah.

This district also specifically includes the most liberal parts of SLC.

[Alben Barkley]

Washington County is such a naturally beautiful place, including the gorgeous Zion National Park.

Shame the people there are bats--t crazy.

[MT Treasurer]

This looks like a very high turnout election

Which largely works to the benefit of Republicans now and likely contributed to this showing. I don’t think it’s representative of future special elections.

[Alben Barkley]

Looks like yet another Republican underperformance in a special election in the Biden era.

LOL at those proclaiming the opposite when no votes from SLC were even in yet.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Looks like yet another Republican underperformance in a special election in the Biden era.

LOL at those proclaiming the opposite when no votes from SLC were even in yet.

Maloy is on track to outrun Trump though by a decent amount.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Looks like yet another Republican underperformance in a special election in the Biden era.

LOL at those proclaiming the opposite when no votes from SLC were even in yet.

Maloy is winning by more than 20% now. This isn't quite Stewart levels but it's better than Trump and FAR better than Mike Lee.

[Alben Barkley]

I remember visiting Utah and being stuck buying 3.2% beer. Imagine my relief when I visited Zion and, because it was federal land, they had a bar selling REAL beer in there! Then imagine my further relief when I drove down to Arizona to see the Grand Canyon and they had even more bars and unfettered access to alcohol! THEN imagine my extra EXTRA relief when I went to Vegas! Enough said...

Now I see that Utah got rid of that law a few years ago:

https://www.cbsnews.com/colorado/news/utah-low-alcohol-beer-sales-ending/

So raise a glass to FREEDOM, non-Mormon and non-practicing Mormon Utahns!

UT-02 was always going to elect a Republican, but with 40% of the SLC vote outstanding, it looks like it will be by a substantially lower margin than 2022 and possibly 2020. I think that's enough reason to celebrate.

Looks like yet another Republican underperformance in a special election in the Biden era.

LOL at those proclaiming the opposite when no votes from SLC were even in yet.

Maloy is winning by more than 20% now. This isn't quite Stewart levels but it's better than Trump and FAR better than Mike Lee.

Outrunning Trump and a guy going up against a Mormon non-Democrat? THAT'S the benchmarks we're going by now???

LMFAO, cope.

[Minnesota Mike]

Looks like yet another Republican underperformance in a special election in the Biden era.

LOL at those proclaiming the opposite when no votes from SLC were even in yet.

Maloy is on track to outrun Trump though by a decent amount.

Great thing about these results are everybody can spin the results to their desire.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

We've certainly seen some overperformances (VA-04, MS, KY, PA) but we've also seen a 'break even' performance (RI-01) and several underperformances (VA leg compared to Biden 2020 numbers, NY county executives, LA, and tonight's race compared to 2020 and ML 2022). This is a very mixed verdict for Ds overall. Remember how slim Biden's winning margins were in several crucial states. Even the slightest declines could have potential to sink him. This isn't really convincing for '24 from Biden's perspective.

[Tekken_Guy]

We've certainly seen some overperformances (VA-04, MS, KY, PA) but we've also seen a 'break even' performance (RI-01) and several underperformances (VA leg compared to Biden 2020 numbers, NY county executives, LA, and tonight's race compared to 2020 and ML 2022). This is a very mixed verdict for Ds overall. Remember how slim Biden's winning margins were in several crucial states. Even the slightest declines could have potential to sink him. This isn't really convincing for '24 from Biden's perspective.

It's not exactly a positive sign for Biden's chances, but it isn't really one for Trump's either given Utah is much redder downballot.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

We've certainly seen some overperformances (VA-04, MS, KY, PA) but we've also seen a 'break even' performance (RI-01) and several underperformances (VA leg compared to Biden 2020 numbers, NY county executives, LA, and tonight's race compared to 2020 and ML 2022). This is a very mixed verdict for Ds overall. Remember how slim Biden's winning margins were in several crucial states. Even the slightest declines could have potential to sink him. This isn't really convincing for '24 from Biden's perspective.

It's not exactly a positive sign for Biden's chances, but it isn't really one for Trump's either given Utah is much redder downballot.

Special elections don't really mean anything for Presidential races. Mike Garcia flipped CA-25 in 2020 but its not like that was a good indicator of what would happen between Trump and Biden.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

We've certainly seen some overperformances (VA-04, MS, KY, PA) but we've also seen a 'break even' performance (RI-01) and several underperformances (VA leg compared to Biden 2020 numbers, NY county executives, LA, and tonight's race compared to 2020 and ML 2022). This is a very mixed verdict for Ds overall. Remember how slim Biden's winning margins were in several crucial states. Even the slightest declines could have potential to sink him. This isn't really convincing for '24 from Biden's perspective.

It's not exactly a positive sign for Biden's chances, but it isn't really one for Trump's either given Utah is much redder downballot.

Off-year elections just don't mean much. They have very different turnout and very different candidates. This one had higher turnout than most specials, but even then the candidate dynamics are very different.

[jvmh2009]

The d did better than Stewart margins which is all I cared about. Wish it would have been closer but not the end of the world.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Ah, so suddenly special elections matter again now.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

We've certainly seen some overperformances (VA-04, MS, KY, PA) but we've also seen a 'break even' performance (RI-01) and several underperformances (VA leg compared to Biden 2020 numbers, NY county executives, LA, and tonight's race compared to 2020 and ML 2022). This is a very mixed verdict for Ds overall. Remember how slim Biden's winning margins were in several crucial states. Even the slightest declines could have potential to sink him. This isn't really convincing for '24 from Biden's perspective.

It's not exactly a positive sign for Biden's chances, but it isn't really one for Trump's either given Utah is much redder downballot.

Special elections don't really mean anything for Presidential races. Mike Garcia flipped CA-25 in 2020 but its not like that was a good indicator of what would happen between Trump and Biden.

It certainly previewed that 2020 Pres wasn't going to be a landslide, which was true. It also previewed the GOP's strong performance in the House of Representatives results and arguably their decent results in the Senate.

[Birdish]

We've certainly seen some overperformances (VA-04, MS, KY, PA) but we've also seen a 'break even' performance (RI-01) and several underperformances (VA leg compared to Biden 2020 numbers, NY county executives, LA, and tonight's race compared to 2020 and ML 2022). This is a very mixed verdict for Ds overall. Remember how slim Biden's winning margins were in several crucial states. Even the slightest declines could have potential to sink him. This isn't really convincing for '24 from Biden's perspective.

I tend to think the incumbent party holding thier own in competitive races is a good sign. The bottom hasn't fallen out so to speak.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Ah, so suddenly special elections matter again now.

No I thought the previous ones don't matter and this one doesn't matter either. The polls for 2024 are probably a far better indicator.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

We've certainly seen some overperformances (VA-04, MS, KY, PA) but we've also seen a 'break even' performance (RI-01) and several underperformances (VA leg compared to Biden 2020 numbers, NY county executives, LA, and tonight's race compared to 2020 and ML 2022). This is a very mixed verdict for Ds overall. Remember how slim Biden's winning margins were in several crucial states. Even the slightest declines could have potential to sink him. This isn't really convincing for '24 from Biden's perspective.

I tend to think the incumbent party holding thier own in competitive races is a good sign.

I mean it's not a bad sign, but this year clearly isn't 2017 when Dems were overperforming across the board. Certainly signals that any Biden 2024 win will be a narrow one that will place the GOP squarely in control of the Senate and limit D gains in the House.

[Tekken_Guy]

We've certainly seen some overperformances (VA-04, MS, KY, PA) but we've also seen a 'break even' performance (RI-01) and several underperformances (VA leg compared to Biden 2020 numbers, NY county executives, LA, and tonight's race compared to 2020 and ML 2022). This is a very mixed verdict for Ds overall. Remember how slim Biden's winning margins were in several crucial states. Even the slightest declines could have potential to sink him. This isn't really convincing for '24 from Biden's perspective.

It's not exactly a positive sign for Biden's chances, but it isn't really one for Trump's either given Utah is much redder downballot.

Special elections don't really mean anything for Presidential races. Mike Garcia flipped CA-25 in 2020 but its not like that was a good indicator of what would happen between Trump and Biden.

It certainly previewed that 2020 Pres wasn't going to be a landslide, which was true. It also previewed the GOP's strong performance in the House of Representatives results and arguably their decent results in the Senate.

Also was a warning that the CA freshmen (Cox, Rouda, Cisneros) were in big trouble that November, and that Garcia himself would not be easy to beat in the rematch.

[Progressive Pessimist]

We've certainly seen some overperformances (VA-04, MS, KY, PA) but we've also seen a 'break even' performance (RI-01) and several underperformances (VA leg compared to Biden 2020 numbers, NY county executives, LA, and tonight's race compared to 2020 and ML 2022). This is a very mixed verdict for Ds overall. Remember how slim Biden's winning margins were in several crucial states. Even the slightest declines could have potential to sink him. This isn't really convincing for '24 from Biden's perspective.

I tend to think the incumbent party holding thier own in competitive races is a good sign.

I mean it's not a bad sign, but this year clearly isn't 2017 when Dems were overperforming across the board. Certainly signals that any Biden 2024 win will be a narrow one that will place the GOP squarely in control of the Senate and limit D gains in the House.

You're discerning that from a special election in a safe R Utah district? After a very favorable election day two weeks ago where Democrats won almost entirely across the board?

Let's see how a NY-3 special goes if Santos is removed, what do you reckon?