Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1336437265631948805

[WD]

Who are the Democrats most likely to run here?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Not sure which AA Cleveland politician will win the primary, but I'd be surprised if it was Turner.  She's burned tons of bridges locally.  Had she not gone off the deep end from 2016-onward, she'd have been the frontrunner.  Now though?  She could make a good grift out of it, but probably no more than that.

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1336440200592023554

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1336440200592023554

Biden won't get any Cabinet picks unless the Democrats win both Georgia runoffs.

[free my dawg]

Congresswoman Turner would be awesome.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Congresswoman Turner would be awesome.

She's probably looking at a 4th or 5th place finish, maybe a distant 3rd at best.

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1336461982879207425

[Tekken_Guy]

https://mobile.twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1336158608371773441

It would appear Frank Jackson, the mayor of Cleveland, may run for the seat.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Watch them mess up and all resign like Richmond is, before the speaker vote

[Bootes Void]

none of them should resign their seat until after January 20th, although Richmond's position doesnt need senate confirmation

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not unexpected, she is expected to be Redistricted out in 2022

[KaiserDave]

Turner will not be competitive

Anyway the general is Titanium D

[It’s so Joever]

Why would anyone even want this seat, it is 100% going to be redistricting into oblivion.
If the OH-GOP is smart they would break this and the Youngstown seat up while making a Cincinnati Dem pack. The map would look very nice (won’t prompt backlash) and would still be a pretty safe way to net a seat.

[Roll Roons]

Why would anyone even want this seat, it is 100% going to be redistricting into oblivion.
If the OH-GOP is smart they would break this and the Youngstown seat up while making a Cincinnati Dem pack. The map would look very nice (won’t prompt backlash) and would still be a pretty safe way to net a seat.

I'm pretty sure this is a VRA seat.

[Calthrina950]

Congresswoman Turner would be awesome.

I don't have a stake in who Fudge's successor will be, but to put it bluntly, proud and loud black politicians-especially proud and loud black female politicians-tend not to be well-liked by the powers that be, if you get what I mean. Nina Turner is certainly someone the Democratic establishment would oppose, and it remains to be seen whether she can win the primary.

[lfromnj]

Why would anyone even want this seat, it is 100% going to be redistricting into oblivion.
If the OH-GOP is smart they would break this and the Youngstown seat up while making a Cincinnati Dem pack. The map would look very nice (won’t prompt backlash) and would still be a pretty safe way to net a seat.

Kaptur is the other seat the GOP can crack. Her district runs from Toledo to Cleveland This seat is actually from Cleveland to Akron but will have to retract to Cleveland. Its also an AA VRA seat and still very Safe D and impossible to crack.



Instead expect it to look something like this as in the green district.A fairly logical and compact COI that splits only one town but is also a natural Democratic pack.The purple district is the rest of Cuyahoga and it actually voted for Trump! It isn't an overpacking of AA's either. It just puts all of the white liberals who live in the same towns as the AA's +Lakewood together.

[lfromnj]

Also honestly her complaints are stupid.

"HUD is a leftover for black members"

Its not like every HUD cabinet member has been black, you have to go back like 6 or 7 before Carson to find someone.

The expectation for Agriculture was a bit silly especially for someone from such an urban district. Yes there are obviously some urban concerns regarding the Agriculture department but those aren't exclusively urban issues such as Food Stamps.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Also honestly her complaints are stupid.

"HUD is a leftover for black members"

Its not like every HUD cabinet member has been black, you have to go back like 6 or 7 before Carson.

The expectation for Agriculture was stupid especially for someone from such an urban district. Yes there are obviously some urban concerns regarding the Agriculture department but those aren't exclusively urban issues such as Food Stamps.

Lol, Urban League deals with HUD issues, I was a product of Urban League and they helped

[free my dawg]

Congresswoman Turner would be awesome.

She's probably looking at a 4th or 5th place finish, maybe a distant 3rd at best.

Oh, I'm aware. This is the Democratic Party primary, not the People's Primary one.

I'm just saying, it would be nice to have a leftist who isn't woefully incompetent at messaging.

[It’s so Joever]

Why would anyone even want this seat, it is 100% going to be redistricting into oblivion.
If the OH-GOP is smart they would break this and the Youngstown seat up while making a Cincinnati Dem pack. The map would look very nice (won’t prompt backlash) and would still be a pretty safe way to net a seat.

Kaptur is the other seat the GOP can crack. Her district runs from Toledo to Cleveland This seat is actually from Cleveland to Akron but will have to retract to Cleveland. Its also an AA VRA seat and still very Safe D and impossible to crack.



Instead expect it to look something like this as in the green district.A fairly logical and compact COI that splits only one town but is also a natural Democratic pack.The purple district is the rest of Cuyahoga and it actually voted for Trump! It isn't an overpacking of AA's either. It just puts all of the white liberals who live in the same towns as the AA's +Lakewood together.

You are right, I mixed this one up with Kaptur’s snake.

[KaiserDave]

Congresswoman Turner would be awesome.

She's probably looking at a 4th or 5th place finish, maybe a distant 3rd at best.

Oh, I'm aware. This is the Democratic Party primary, not the People's Primary one.

I'm just saying, it would be nice to have a leftist who isn't woefully incompetent at messaging.

I don't really agree she's very competent at messaging....

Curious to know why you think so

[Donerail]

Turner will not be competitive

Turner will absolutely be competitive and should probably be considered the frontrunner for the seat. This election is going to draw every serious candidate in Cleveland (and Akron). It's a once-in-a-lifetime chance to make the jump to Congress, and it's a special, so none of them will have to give up their current seats to run. Turner has a committed ideological base and will raise an unimaginable amount of money — and if you only need 25% of the vote to win the primary...

[KaiserDave]

Turner will not be competitive

Turner will absolutely be competitive and should probably be considered the frontrunner for the seat. This election is going to draw every serious candidate in Cleveland (and Akron). It's a once-in-a-lifetime chance to make the jump to Congress, and it's a special, so none of them will have to give up their current seats to run. Turner has a committed ideological base and will raise an unimaginable amount of money — and if you only need 25% of the vote to win the primary...

Outside of the Twitterverse Nina Turner is not actually a popular or very well known politician. She drove Our Revolution into the ground and while she was never going to win in 2014, it remains only her foray into actually competitive politics and she failed miserably.

[DrScholl]

Nina Turner's podcast is sponsored by Goldman Sachs. That's really progressive.