Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/KosichJohn/status/1390305904055046150
I can't believe Turner is becoming the established politician's favorite.

If you can't beat em, join em?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

My take is that this endorsement will have minimal impact on the race. Almost no one who isn't terminally online has even thought about Hillary Clinton in like half a decade, and she's done this before with a rather poor track record (e.g. Eliot Engel).

Agreed. I just don't see Hillary's endorsement really moving many votes at best.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How is Shontel Brown a transphobe? I listened to that segment, and the most you could accuse her of would be the offense of "misgendering". From the tone that she used and the language that she used, I didn't get the impression that she was bigoted or prejudiced. As I've said elsewhere, you have legitimately hateful people out there who ought to be criticized, but there are many reasonable people who don't fully understand all of the nuances around gender identity and sexual orientation, and the like, but who are supportive of LGBT rights and who are trying to seek greater understanding about the issue. This woman seems to fall into that category.

Frankly, people who call Shontel Brown a transphobe are unintentionally doing bigots a favor by watering down the term through overuse and thus making it harder for them to be called out effectively. Save the term for actual transphobes; let's not use it as political football against Dems we don't like.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If Brown holds on (and it is looking good for her) what should we thread title be?

Twitter in Disarray

This

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Zionists have the right to involve themselves in Dem primaries and so do anti-Zionists. But either can get blamed for outcomes they help cause. At the end of the day DMFI is just another interest group and so are their ideological opposites.
Worth noting DMFI was not the only player in this result. The CBC was a huge player in this, as was the local party establishment as well. Turner ultimately was rather thin in terms of heavyweight backing even if she was broadly the most popular on social media and among activists.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Shontel Brown 35,504 50.41%
Nina Turner 31,202 44.30%

That's almost 10 percent of the district's total population. Impressive.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What's his point here?   He was listed first on the ballot which is actually an advantage.   What's his problem with the ballot?

https://twitter.com/VoteMariner/status/1479954065631203328

I'm shocked, shocked, that in a Titanium Safe D district, there are more Ds running than Rs.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/NapervillePol/status/1562288030005821440?t=aPR8cA45HGZxAICoY...

Interesting, I wonder what the result would be if you equalized turnout in all the counties.

Probably, Molinaro wins very narrowly. Ulster County's boost in turnout helped Democrats considerably on the margins here.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

"The ones that have been include the Mat-Su"
Mat-Su Borough is very Republican. Mat-Su voted 72-24 Trump in 2020; while the rest of the state voted only 50-46 Trump.
This is more good news for Peltola.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So Ryan only won two counties which is pretty weird for a non-urban district. What are Ulster and Columbia counties like?

I get the impression that Ulster County is basically like Vermont, while Columbia is probably "to the left" on social issues while being fiscally moderate. Both counties lean Democratic, to varying degrees.
Torie would be able to speak with more eloquence on this topic, I feel.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Democrats winning here is far from unusual. Rs have won the CD Ulster County has mainly or completely been within at most in just one election out of five in the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s.
The general pattern over the past half-century has been Ulster County turning whatever district it was within Dem-leaning.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1605427368117637120

Is...this legal?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1605427368117637120

Is...this legal?

It's not *illegal*, but it should result in loss of the tax exemption. Of course, the IRS has been asleep at  the wheel on politicking by churches for ages now.

Thankfully Joe Biden got tons more IRS agents. Perhaps something this blatant gets punished. I'm not getting my hopes up of course.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Wow, this is the first time a McLennan has won battles in Virginia. (the early 1860s doesn't count).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Wow, this is the first time a McLennan has won battles in Virginia. (the early 1860s doesn't count).

On the other hand, a McClellan fleeing Richmond for DC is a fairly routine sight.

True.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So I know this is still Utah, but Maloy going for a total abortion ban seems pretty ill advised here, and IIRC, as of a week or two ago, Reibe was the only one airing ads. I feel like this one could get pretty interesting:

https://twitter.com/sltrib/status/1725294447242420337

Will be interesting to see how the chips fall, in the end.