Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)

[GeorgiaModerate]

You'd think people on this board would have learned about wild extrapolations from early unofficial turnout reports by now. We're not learning anything new until 7:30, y'all, go read a book or watch a movie or something until then

If this ever happens, it will be the end of the world as we know it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think he might be objecting to the alignment where the "REP" and "DEM" in the column for his race are very close to the bubbles for the race to its right, which might cause people to fill in the wrong ones.  But that's purely a guess.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If Santa Claus doesn't advance, the election is rigged.

It turns out that neither elves nor reindeer are eligible to vote.

[GeorgiaModerate]

From Geoffrey Skelley on the 538 live blog:

Well, well, well, this is interesting. We’re looking at all the primaries tonight, but there’s also a special election in Nebraska’s 1st District for the remainder of the term in the current Congress. And now we’re on a surprise watch: Democratic state Sen. Patty Pansing Brooks is leading by about 11 points right now over Republican state Sen. Mike Flood, with 36 percent reported per the Associated Press. Now, before we go crazy, it does look like a fair bit of rural turf in this relatively red district hasn’t reported, but still, this is not at all what we expected to see here. I have a hypothesis: the overturning of Roe v. Wade has juiced Democratic turnout in a super low-turnout special election (Nebraska doesn’t have other notable elections on the ballot; its primary was in May).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Funny that this special has turned out to be the race of the night.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I should note that MN-1 isn’t the sort of district where you’d expect a Dem resurgence to rear its head.  I’d be cautious about reading too much into a poor showing here.

Parts of it though are definitely worth looking at. Turnout in Rochester for example.

Agreed Re: Rochester, just trying to head off some of the bad hot takes

Takes!  Get your takes here!  We got hot takes, cold takes, lukewarm takes!  We got good takes, bad takes, and takes that make you go wtf!  We got all your takes here!

-- Proposed new Talk Elections slogan

[GeorgiaModerate]

Would a R+2 result be good for either side? You figure the narrowest of victories for Molinaro could suggest a short stint in Congress with high turnout Ithaca in the November version.

R+2 result in a Biden +2 district would be consistent with a dead even national environment (or slightly D-leaning, depending on how much stronger you think Molinaro is than Ryan, though I don't think he's that much stronger.) Would at least be encouraging for the Dems to see that a red wave is looking less likely, although it would also be a little disappointing given it would be a considerably worse performance than NE-01 or MN-01.

I saw a post on Twitter from a political analyst (don't recall which one, unfortunately) with a scale of possible outcomes in this race.  It was something like the following, with the caveat that this is from memory and some of them might be slightly off:

D+2 or more - fabulous for D
D+0-1 - very good for D
R+0-1 - good for D
R+2-3 - neutral
R+4-5 - good for R
R+6-7 - very good for R
R+8 or more - fabulous for R

[GeorgiaModerate]

Another dump of about 3500 just dropped.

Peltola 49%
Begich 26%
Palin 25%

If the final result is Pelolta 50.1% does she win?

Yes, if one candidate had a majority of the first-round votes, they would be elected.  But as noted above, the 49% was only for that batch, and there's no way she'll get to 50%+1 overall.

[GeorgiaModerate]

From yesterday:

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1559882241743982592

[GeorgiaModerate]

Moderator note: the inflation discussion is off-topic for this thread.  Take it elsewhere (USGD would be a good board, and there's probably already at least one thread there).  Future posts on the topic in this thread will be deleted.

[GeorgiaModerate]

What do we think is the magic number for Peltola in the first round?  41% or so?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wow. Duchess early vote has Ryan 74-26

A bit of trivia that I never knew until visiting the county is that it's actually spelled "Dutchess", which is an archaic form of the word "Duchess" that's used today.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ak_elections/status/1562252581883154433

[GeorgiaModerate]

RYAN, PAT (DEM)- 21,762 (63.41%)
FANBOY, HITLER (REP)- 12,559 (36.59%)

Isn't Carl Paladino the Hitler fanboy?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/TKensingtonian/status/1562270607210848256

This is NOT the real Wasserman!

[GeorgiaModerate]

538 blog is estimating 120K votes in this race.

[GeorgiaModerate]

538 blog is estimating 120K votes in this race.

We're almost done then, we're at 113k in NYT now

Don’t put too much faith in it. Now they’re saying they don’t know how many are left.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Insert dog-who-caught-the-car meme, but with an elephant.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Let’s all give Data for Progress a big hand!

Or 1/5 of it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Would a R+2 result be good for either side? You figure the narrowest of victories for Molinaro could suggest a short stint in Congress with high turnout Ithaca in the November version.

R+2 result in a Biden +2 district would be consistent with a dead even national environment (or slightly D-leaning, depending on how much stronger you think Molinaro is than Ryan, though I don't think he's that much stronger.) Would at least be encouraging for the Dems to see that a red wave is looking less likely, although it would also be a little disappointing given it would be a considerably worse performance than NE-01 or MN-01.

I saw a post on Twitter from a political analyst (don't recall which one, unfortunately) with a scale of possible outcomes in this race.  It was something like the following, with the caveat that this is from memory and some of them might be slightly off:

D+2 or more - fabulous for D
D+0-1 - very good for D
R+0-1 - good for D
R+2-3 - neutral
R+4-5 - good for R
R+6-7 - very good for R
R+8 or more - fabulous for R

Reposting this one as we await the final margin.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1562408840272007168

[GeorgiaModerate]

One aspect of these specials that hasn't been discussed at all: New York finally (mostly) got it together when it comes to counting votes!!!!

How many absentees are still out? I believe anything that arrived after last Friday still needs to be counted. Still much better. Now they need to improve their results website.

I don't know how many there are, but they could still come in for a few days.  I believe New York accepts ballots until a week after Election Day as long as they're postmarked by E-Day.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RealPData/status/1562563085595844609

And the point is....?

You're going to have to provide more details than a vague tweet about what the actual procedure was, and what the tweet is trying to imply.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Alaska Survey Research guy's analysis after the last update has the race on a knife edge.  Click to read the whole thread.

https://twitter.com/IvanMoore1/status/1563518077664251907

[GeorgiaModerate]

The zombie OH-11 poll is gone thanks to Virginia showing me how to remove it.

The end of an era

More like the end of an error.