North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[lfromnj]

Hot take- In this environment and given the trends in the black belt/results in similar seats, the black belt seat will flip unless they add Durham to it or something like that

Meh its pretty inelastic . Should be around biden +6. . Sandy Smith isn't great either. They could recruit a state house candidate who is running for the Wilson state house seat.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Hot take- In this environment and given the trends in the black belt/results in similar seats, the black belt seat will flip unless they add Durham to it or something like that

I'm skeptical of a Biden +8 or 9 racially polarized Southern seat flipping

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Hot take- In this environment and given the trends in the black belt/results in similar seats, the black belt seat will flip unless they add Durham to it or something like that

I'm skeptical of a Biden +8 or 9 racially polarized Southern seat flipping

Racial polarization is literally decreasing as we speak. Blacks swung right in 2016 and even further right in 2020. Why do you think Butterfield is retiring? He knew the court was 4-3 dem and would never accept the 10-3-1 map so he had to see some writing on the wall

[Nyvin]

Hot take- In this environment and given the trends in the black belt/results in similar seats, the black belt seat will flip unless they add Durham to it or something like that

This would be totally fine since the district that has the rest of Durham county along with Orange and Chatham will still be safe D,  and the black belt seat will be MUCH more Dem.





https://davesredistricting.org/join/d7c4144a-e6d9-4e4d-b993-01aa273eb149

[Stuart98]

7-5-2 is a great deal for a state like NC, at least if the 2 swing districts are genuine swing districts (ie went for Biden narrowly).

Sandhills should be Clinton Trump. Its a small struggle to draw a Biden district there.

Not really.


Can easily make it bluer if you sacrifice compactness by losing most of Harnett and add Richmond and Anson.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1493389564580446214?s=20&t=32n3rmQnjmzTa8E5...

One can now read the full (longer) opinion on the previous decision to strike down maps at the link above.

[Tekken_Guy]

Hot take- In this environment and given the trends in the black belt/results in similar seats, the black belt seat will flip unless they add Durham to it or something like that

This would be totally fine since the district that has the rest of Durham county along with Orange and Chatham will still be safe D,  and the black belt seat will be MUCH more Dem.





https://davesredistricting.org/join/d7c4144a-e6d9-4e4d-b993-01aa273eb149

I assume Republicans win both 4 and 7 this year if this were the map.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

What will be really interesting is that a Sandhills district would be majorly influenced by the Lumbee tribes. Making it the only district this side of the Mississippi, and one of maybe three districts with a sizable indigenous population. Not to mention the black population and growing Hispanic community. It will be a new minority majority seat, which is really great to see as after 2010 there has been no minority representation for the border region in either state.

This is in general a huge win for minority communities, and people who support representative democracy in general. It’d be amazing to see a Lumbee get elected to congress. I wouldn’t be surprised if Charles Graham wins such a district, even in 2022, as the Lumbee would be the king makers of it.

[lfromnj]

What will be really interesting is that a Sandhills district would be majorly influenced by the Lumbee tribes. Making it the only district this side of the Mississippi, and one of maybe three districts with a sizable indigenous population. Not to mention the black population and growing Hispanic community. It will be a new minority majority seat, which is really great to see as after 2010 there has been no minority representation for the border region in either state.

This is in general a huge win for minority communities, and people who support representative democracy in general. It’d be amazing to see a Lumbee get elected to congress. I wouldn’t be surprised if Charles Graham wins such a district, even in 2022, as the Lumbee would be the king makers of it.

That implies he wins the primary. Ben Clark is also running and he is a state senator from Fayetville/Hoke county.

[lfromnj]

[T]here are multiple reliable ways of demonstrating the existence of an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander. Mean-median difference analysis; efficiency gap analysis; close-votes, close-seats analysis; and partisan symmetry analysis may be useful in assessing whether the mapmaker adhered to traditional neutral districting criteria and whether a meaningful partisan skew necessarily results from North Carolina’s unique political geography.”

From the opinion, what does this even mean?

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/DallasWoodhouse/status/1493344287983120388

I maintain that the NCGOP would have saved themselves so much grief had they not gotten greedy and cracked Greensboro.

Looks like Tim Moore is using this redraw to get back at Cawthorne.

https://twitter.com/lekhashupeck/status/1493596496180228100?s=20&t=mF9Z_dArU...

[Oryxslayer]

[T]here are multiple reliable ways of demonstrating the existence of an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander. Mean-median difference analysis; efficiency gap analysis; close-votes, close-seats analysis; and partisan symmetry analysis may be useful in assessing whether the mapmaker adhered to traditional neutral districting criteria and whether a meaningful partisan skew necessarily results from North Carolina’s unique political geography.”

From the opinion, what does this even mean?

Those are all various metrics that an be used to determine the equity of districts when compared to the expected partisan distribution based on statewide results. This line was in the initial shorter order as well.

[BoiseBoy]

Expect to see the revised maps today.

[Vern]

It sounds like the new 13 will have a lot of Charlotte in it

[Vern]

Expect to see the revised maps today.

What makes you say that?

[BoiseBoy]

Senate redistricting committee will meet tomorrow afternoon to consider the new maps (which have not been made public yet).
https://twitter.com/Lynn_Bonner/status/1493692940144676865?s=20&t=mgN55ejFlG...

[Oryxslayer]

Senate redistricting committee will meet tomorrow afternoon to consider the new maps (which have not been made public yet).
https://twitter.com/Lynn_Bonner/status/1493692940144676865?s=20&t=mgN55ejFlG...

House to reconvene on the same issue at 11am tomorrow.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/DallasWoodhouse/status/1493754452351852545?s=20&t=F23jhV...

[ProgressiveModerate]

That district 9 is certainly unexpected... looks like a swingy district though

[ProgressiveModerate]

Looks like:

Safe D:

NC-02
NC-04
NC-06
NC-12

Likely D:

NC-01 (Trending R)

Lean R:

NC-08 (Trending D)
NC-14
NC-09

Likely R:

NC-11

Safe R:

NC-03
NC-05
NC-07
NC-10
NC-13

Looks fair overall, glad we could have this map for at least 2022.

[Roll Roons]

God bless them for keeping the district numbers the same as the current ones. That was one of the most egregious features from the map that got tossed.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

God bless them for keeping the district numbers the same as the current ones. That was one of the most egregious features from the map that got tossed.

Agreed.

[ProgressiveModerate]

8 seems incrediably close on 2020 Pres... 9 def went to Trump and 14 did as well.. Everything else seems pretty straightforwards

[Sestak]

Surely there’s a better way to make a swing seat than that 9th…

[Gass3268]

Here is a guesstimate map:

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1493757866494218260?s=20&t=F23jhVyZyBh...