North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Least partisan member of the NCGOP.

https://www.ncleg.gov/EnactedLegislation/Constitution/NCConstitution.html

Where does this document prohibit gerrymandering?

To be honest? I don't know. As terminally online as I am, I spend my days thinking about things that matter instead of my state's constitution. I just like getting cheap shots against the state Republican party in.

I'll help you out: it doesn't. Maybe our out of state posters should review the actual constitution of NC before they assert that it prohibits gerrymandering of any sort?

[GALeftist]

Yeah. The idea that the Court owes the NCGOP the time of day is ridiculous given that they tried to pull the same trick last decade, got caught, and took almost the entire decade dithering and wrangling before finally being forced by the court to draw a fair map that only ended up applying to the very last election of the cycle. And now they're trying to pull the same sh*t again. The Court is being too generous with them, if anything.

There's nothing illegal about the maps....

Are you for real? You're a ing hack.

Lol. Point out to me the specific clause in the North Carolina Constitution that prohibits gerrymandering.

"No person shall be denied the equal protection of the laws."

Equal protection clauses have not been historically interpreted at either the federal or the state level as prohibiting gerrymandering. Neither an originalist nor a textualist perspective supports such an interpretation. That's especially clear considering the context, which you misquoted by putting a period at the end: "No person shall be denied the equal protection of the laws; nor shall any person be subjected to discrimination by the State because of race, color, religion, or national origin."

I think they should, though, and evidently the NCSC agrees with me. How is such an approach not textualist? Partisan gerrymandering very explicitly makes some votes count more than others. I don't really care for originalism.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Yeah. The idea that the Court owes the NCGOP the time of day is ridiculous given that they tried to pull the same trick last decade, got caught, and took almost the entire decade dithering and wrangling before finally being forced by the court to draw a fair map that only ended up applying to the very last election of the cycle. And now they're trying to pull the same sh*t again. The Court is being too generous with them, if anything.

There's nothing illegal about the maps....

Are you for real? You're a ing hack.

Lol. Point out to me the specific clause in the North Carolina Constitution that prohibits gerrymandering.

"No person shall be denied the equal protection of the laws."

Equal protection clauses have not been historically interpreted at either the federal or the state level as prohibiting gerrymandering. Neither an originalist nor a textualist perspective supports such an interpretation. That's especially clear considering the context, which you misquoted by putting a period at the end: "No person shall be denied the equal protection of the laws; nor shall any person be subjected to discrimination by the State because of race, color, religion, or national origin."

I think they should, though, and evidently the NCSC agrees with me. How is such an approach not textualist? Partisan gerrymandering very explicitly makes some votes count more than others. I don't really care for originalism.

Partisan gerrymandering does not make some votes count more than others. It puts votes together in a way that legislators can predict will lead to a pre-determined outcome, but all votes put together are counted equally. That's why the Supreme Court ruled in Reynolds that the equal protection clause prohibits unequally apportioned districts, but has also ruled that the equal protection clause does not prohibit partisan gerrymandering.

[Sol]

y'know, I get defending NC's dumbf**k maps if you're an actual member of the Republican party in the general assembly, but if you're just a normal member of society why do you care? It's fairly obvious that even a perfectly fair map of the state would elect a Republican NCGA in both chambers most of the time, and a Democratic trifecta would be fairly rare. Why go to bat defending something which in practice changes little for you?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/JoshStein_/status/1489735069422002180?s=20&t=q6eTRJrhaVa...

The quickest and most expected of turnarounds. New maps must be drawn in the next two weeks.

[Roll Roons]

Shocker. So does the map go back to the legislature?

[Oryxslayer]

Shocker. So does the map go back to the legislature?

I am trying to find the order. Please hold, this is just the press statements on twitter atm. The Legislature has two weeks, though the contours beyond that are missing.

[BoiseBoy]

From what I read, the court mandated proportionality for all maps. I would guess we get an 8-6 out of this.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wonderful news!!

Whatever else we can say, this cycle has generally been a win for people pushing back against egregious gerrymanders. While a few states are still doing horrible stuff, by and large there has been a far more aggressive effort from the judiciary, activists and even institutional actors to avoid the worst excesses see in the past few decades. I hope we can all celebrate that.

[Oryxslayer]

Read the full order here.

Will update with finer points.

- Legislature has till Feb. 18 to draw plans in compliance with this order. After which the court will select maps by the 22nd. The parties can submit maps.

- Primaries May 17. Candidate filing on the 24th.

- "When, on the basis of partisanship, the Assembly (mappers) enacts a plan that diminishes or dilutes a voters opportunity to aggregate with likeminded voters to  elect a governing majority - that is when a districting plan systematically makes it harder for one group of voters to elect a governing majority than another group of voters of equal size -  the Assembly unconstitutionally infringes upon that voters fundamental right to vote." This is ordering use of the efficiency gap

- Cites mean-median difference analysis, efficiency gap analysis, close votes, close seats analysis, and partisan symmetry analysis in assessing whether mappers followed neutral principles in reflection of the states geography. A plan is fair if it passes some combination of these metrics and gives both parties opportunity proportional to the expected state lean.

- Incumbent protection is fine if applied to all and consistent with the above.

- RPV must be done before anything else and districts must be drawn that therefore follow Section 2. NC-01 is back.

[windjammer]

This has been a disaster this cycle for the GOP

[Matty]

This has been a disaster this cycle for the GOP

On the Margin

Midterms have never been determined by redistricting

[Matty]

I never want to hear again how the gop has a systemic bias in its favor

NY can have a 22-4 map and get away with it

Oregon can get away with its bs

Illinois can get away with its bs

These rulings always go in one direction. Always.

[Ferguson97]

This has been a disaster this cycle for the GOP

On the Margin

Midterms have never been determined by redistricting

It hasn't determined which party had a majority, but there is a substantial difference between an R+15-20 majority and an R+30 majority.

This could make it far easier for Democrats to take back the House in 2024.

[OBD]

I never want to hear again how the gop has a systemic bias in its favor

NY can have a 22-4 map and get away with it

Oregon can get away with its bs

Illinois can get away with its bs

These rulings always go in one direction. Always.

We look forward to Republicans joining us in the passage of a fair redistricting initative nationwide.

[Roll Roons]

I never want to hear again how the gop has a systemic bias in its favor

NY can have a 22-4 map and get away with it

Oregon can get away with its bs

Illinois can get away with its bs

These rulings always go in one direction. Always.

To be clear, gerrymandering by both parties is bad.

[Roll Roons]

Where would a sixth Dem district even come from? I count one seat in Charlotte, one in Raleigh, one in Durham/Chapel Hill, one in Greensboro/Winston-Salem and one in the Northeast black belt (that's trending R).

[Oryxslayer]

I never want to hear again how the gop has a systemic bias in its favor

NY can have a 22-4 map and get away with it

Oregon can get away with its bs

Illinois can get away with its bs

These rulings always go in one direction. Always.

To be clear, gerrymandering by both parties is bad.

Agreed. But the reason why these tend to go in one direction is cause of race. If you don't dilute the power of minorities, then a case is much harder, and Dem gerrymanders these days tend to expand that access.

[Gass3268]

I never want to hear again how the gop has a systemic bias in its favor

NY can have a 22-4 map and get away with it

Oregon can get away with its bs

Illinois can get away with its bs

These rulings always go in one direction. Always.

Only one party supported the Supreme Court declaring partisan gerrymandering unconstitutional. Only party is proposing legislation to deal with partisan gerrymandering.

[Ferguson97]

I never want to hear again how the gop has a systemic bias in its favor

NY can have a 22-4 map and get away with it

Oregon can get away with its bs

Illinois can get away with its bs

These rulings always go in one direction. Always.

If the GOP is really mad about it, they could always support the Democrats in supporting fair nationwide redistricting.

[Gass3268]

Where would a sixth Dem district even come from? I count one seat in Charlotte, one in Raleigh, one in Durham/Chapel Hill, one in Greensboro/Winston-Salem and one in the Northeast black belt (that's trending R).

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1489745732634558471?s=20&t=Fc3VJsnVvxZ...

[Oryxslayer]

Where would a sixth Dem seat come from? I count one in Charlotte, one in Raleigh, one in Durham/Chapel Hill, one in Greensboro/Winston-Salem and one in the Northeast black belt (that's trending R).

Some ideas:

- Sandhills, though perhaps paired with parts of the triangle.

- Separate Chapel Hill and Durham. Pair Durham with the PoC in east Charlotte for minority access, nest the Wake seat in the remaining territory. Chapel hill easily outvotes the territory in between the the two metros if paired with the right adjacent counties.

- OR Wake is large enough to anchor two seats if paired with the right stuff. Durham + Chapel go west, Wake gets 2.

- Cabarrus + parts of Mecklenburg + other suburb = 2 seats. RPV will no doubt find that you can toss some GOP whites with the cities PoC, so a second dem seat can emerge.


And reminder, per the above order, if the court doesn't like the legislatures map, they'll do there own thing after the 18th - likely selecting an Elias map based on the text of the order. Leg can't F around and find out.

[BoiseBoy]

Where would a sixth Dem district even come from? I count one seat in Charlotte, one in Raleigh, one in Durham/Chapel Hill, one in Greensboro/Winston-Salem and one in the Northeast black belt (that's trending R).

This is a map I drew derived from the tabled CST-10 plan. It is a 7-7 map (both 2016 and 2020) with two tossup seats along the south border. It could be 8-6 map for either party depending on the environment.



https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::3a5ebc6f-e9e4-4ac3-946e-e65e18c666ba

[lfromnj]

This has been a disaster this cycle for the GOP

On the Margin

Midterms have never been determined by redistricting

It hasn't determined which party had a majority, but there is a substantial difference between an R+15-20 majority and an R+30 majority.

This could make it far easier for Democrats to take back the House in 2024.

NC gop will certainly do a mid decade redraw for 2023 unless the court doesn't flip.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This has been a disaster this cycle for the GOP

On the Margin

Midterms have never been determined by redistricting

It hasn't determined which party had a majority, but there is a substantial difference between an R+15-20 majority and an R+30 majority.

This could make it far easier for Democrats to take back the House in 2024.

NC gop will certainly do a mid decade redraw for 2023 unless the court doesn't flip.

I forget if it’s the legislature or Congress, but I think one of those can only be drawn once per decade