North Carolina 2020 Redistricting (user search)
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Author Topic: North Carolina 2020 Redistricting  (Read 84716 times)
lfromnj
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« on: November 04, 2019, 10:00:28 PM »


You realize the purpose of the court order is to "undo" the current partisan gerrymander...correct?

I think he knows
He drew that ringmander a few days ago. He just trolling us good for fun. Love it Smiley
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1 on: November 07, 2019, 10:48:43 PM »

Yeah I think Forsyth/Guildford should be kept seperate as each of them are large enough for their own COI but when faced against each other Guilford would usually win.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #2 on: November 08, 2019, 04:39:52 PM »

My map LOL
super ugly


FYI not a gerrymander for any party. Its a gerrymander for competitive districts. I don't think it will h ap
4 Safe D, 4 Safe R, 5 Tossups

Safe Ds are red Charlotte, NE black 42% district, Northern Wake+part of Raleigh and Greensboro.
Safe R is the western Asheville District., Pink district and Western Charlotteburbs
Tossups
Yellow Charlotte. Trump +0.7. Takes in a larger part of Mecklenburg because the red district takes in less of Charlotte because it takes Cabarrus county. and stops just before Robeson and doesn't take any part of Cumberland county. Dan Mcready would have ran here and would easily won here either year maybe even by double digits.


Wilmington-Fayetville, takes all of Fayetville and Robeson and moves east to Wilmington. As all of New Hanover can't be in it I take the blue parts of Wilmington which keeps it competetive at Clinton +0.2

I took the idea of using Winston Salem and dragging it around to Durham. Clinton +0.7. Tossup once again.
Part of Raleigh and south east = another tossup at Trump +0.4
The most contraversial part is taking exurbs/rurals in central NC which are super red and mixing it with lean blue Chatham and the deep blue Chapel Hill/Durham to make a pure tossup district Tongue at +1.

I guess in general COI are somewhat preserved but it isn't really the best when considering COI especially in the triad region.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #3 on: November 08, 2019, 04:59:16 PM »

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1192232580008964096

Also it seems like the GOP is accepting an 8-5 map at the least?

Unless they are gonna try to save another seat to a 9-4.

They would have to be stupid to try a 10-3
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lfromnj
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« Reply #4 on: November 14, 2019, 10:48:11 AM »

Btw anyone notice the GOP wants a winnable Nc 1? The one in that map is clinton +6.5. Definitely winnable for the GOP in a wave.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #5 on: November 14, 2019, 11:19:14 AM »

I don’t understand why they are doing like 30 maps.. hha
Its fun:p
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lfromnj
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« Reply #6 on: November 14, 2019, 07:42:43 PM »

Hold on, does Governor Cooper get a say in any of this? It seems like he should.
Nope
Nc is the state of parties self owning.
Democrats and the veto
The GOP and a partisan court.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #7 on: November 15, 2019, 05:58:31 PM »

That really just leaves Ohio and Texas as the last two surviving "major" R Gerrymanders left in the country.   (Not saying the NC Map is perfect now or anything)

We'll see how well the Texas one holds up next year though.
Georgia too.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #8 on: November 15, 2019, 11:14:39 PM »
« Edited: November 15, 2019, 11:18:19 PM by Deluded retread Vice Chair LFROMNJ »

The NCGOP is playing much smarter than the PA GOP is. The PA GOP just tried an absurd map only conceding 1 seat out of them all and using that to shore up the remaining seats. Instead they got smacked by the courts. A fair map would probably have a 6-7 delegation but the GOP can reasonably fight for a 5-8 delegation as a 5-8 isn't an extreme gerrymander or insane either. Unfortunately for them the NC dems did not give bipartisan cover so the courts will probably give a tossup/Tilt D seat to the D's with Fayetville.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #9 on: December 02, 2019, 11:51:18 PM »
« Edited: December 02, 2019, 11:58:52 PM by Deluded retread Vice Chair LFROMNJ »



Looks like its set in for an 8-5 delegation. This does push my house rating from lean D to Likely D even if this was already confirmed.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #10 on: December 04, 2019, 12:33:58 AM »



Also just confirming the feds won't get involved.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #11 on: December 04, 2019, 12:38:52 AM »

Also what a garbage article by the Washington post on this.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/12/03/north-carolinas-new-congressional-map-shifts-two-seats-toward-democrats/?arc404=true
Quote
The new 2nd has been carved out of a Democratic stronghold in Raleigh. There is little change in the 12th District, where Charlotte Democrats and minorities remain packed.

Yes two completely compact districts wholey within their counties and communities are examples of a gerrymander, not the fact that a Dem tilting region was split among 3 GOP districts.

Also uses some really garbage PVI and it claims NC 4th in the new map which is 65% Clinton only leans to Democrats by less than 5%. They must be on crack.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #12 on: December 06, 2019, 10:46:15 PM »

The court map splitting guilford 4 times?

I know it doesn't really affect the partisanship of the map but its just flat out ugly.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #13 on: April 18, 2020, 02:23:36 PM »
« Edited: April 18, 2020, 02:50:10 PM by lfromnj »



Anyone think they might split Mecklenburg like this.(not the GOP but the courts) The red district is only 50% white in 2010 and 35.6% black in 2010. Its almost 37% black by 2018 which is close to the current district. However its much more polarized at only Clinton 58.1 and Trump 37.8% The yellow district now has a few more minority precints to be around 20% black but also loses all of Union county and gains less red Cabarrus.
This district is nearly identical to VA 10th at Clinton 52.1% and Trump 42.8%(even has similar demographics just less asian and more black). Also voted for Romney but its basically Likely/Safe D. Because literally half of NCs population growth being in Durham/Wake and Mecklenburg I expect a 4th D leaning district in the triad to Raleigh.


Pardon why the pink district is ugly was just testing how black it could go(36.3% in 2018 and its getting less black by the year so it probably will just include wake burbs and raleigh will get its own district with the rest of Wake county. The green district is still relatively safe at Clinton +10 but also voted for Romney so making the pink district cleaner won't matter, so a "neater" map would help Democrats here .

The only reason I even split durham there was for population equivalency as greenvilles precincts were like 7k each
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lfromnj
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« Reply #14 on: April 18, 2020, 02:37:02 PM »
« Edited: April 18, 2020, 02:42:28 PM by lfromnj »



Anyone think they might split Mecklenburg like this.(not the GOP but the courts) The red district is only 50% white in 2010 and 35.6% black in 2010. Its almost 37% black by 2018 which is close to the current district. However its much more polarized at only Clinton 58.1 and Trump 37.8% The yellow district now has a few more minority precints to be around 20% black but also loses all of Union county and gains less red Cabarrus.
This district is nearly identical to VA 10th at Clinton 52.1% and Trump 42.8%(even has similar demographics just less asian and more black). Also voted for Romney but its basically Likely/Safe D.

I suspect the courts wouldn't go for a map that obviously gerrymandered if overruling a GOP gerrymander.

Tough to call it obvious when Charlotte has to be split anyway and the population growth makes it possible for it to consider 2 districts based mainly in charlotte as Mecklenburg by itself is around 10/7 of a district.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #15 on: April 18, 2020, 03:03:45 PM »

Although its pretty obvious that a 35% black seat in the triangle isn't very likely to elect the candidate of choice in a primary against white progressives in the area.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #16 on: April 18, 2020, 04:21:08 PM »

Anyway there is still a decent chance the NC Could sweep the supreme court races this year giving 4-3 control of the courts in which case the NC GOP could do 11-3 or 10-4.
If not it depends how hardball each side plays, I think Democrats will be much better prepared for the 2022 cycle and will hardball as possible for either the Charlotte split or 4 districts in the Piedmont to Wake or even both,
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lfromnj
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« Reply #17 on: April 18, 2020, 06:07:43 PM »

Anyway there is still a decent chance the NC Could sweep the supreme court races this year giving 4-3 control of the courts in which case the NC GOP could do 11-3 or 10-4.
If not it depends how hardball each side plays, I think Democrats will be much better prepared for the 2022 cycle and will hardball as possible for either the Charlotte split or 4 districts in the Piedmont to Wake or even both,

A sweep this year would still be 4/3 Dem control afterward.   The lone Republican held seat is one of the 3 that are up. 

My bad thank you !
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lfromnj
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« Reply #18 on: April 18, 2020, 08:07:48 PM »

One thing that's funny about the current map: The GOP kind of left some numbers on the table in the split of the 2nd and 4th. The 2nd could have been drawn more Republican-ly by having the 4th's bite out of Wake County take in areas in the Cary/Morrisville/RTP area rather than the Northern portion.

Ironically that's actually better for communities of interest too--if you're putting any part of Wake in a district with Orange and Durham, that corner certainly is oriented the most towards those latter two counties.

I think they saw what happened with the greedy PA legislators who just sacrificed a retiring incumbent's seat to shore up everything else(infact that seat would have flipped in 2018 anyway) so they didn't really want to compete in the 2nd district and the 6th anymore


They could also have drawn this district Clinton +0.5 or instead just drawn Guilford+rockingham+Alamance for a Clinton +8, the first one could easily see Walker winning(not safe R of course just IMO tilt R) and the 2nd one atleast gives him a fighting chance. I don't think anyone can really call 3 whole counties a gerrymander.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #19 on: April 19, 2020, 04:09:20 PM »

The problem with the NC state legislature right now is that due to the growth its still quite hard for Democrats to have a fair count of their population.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #20 on: April 19, 2020, 04:23:49 PM »

The problem with the NC state legislature right now is that due to the growth its still quite hard for Democrats to have a fair count of their population.

Yeah it's likely that Blue counties would naturally be apportioned >50% in at least 1 chamber come 2020. Charlotte and Wake are growing that fast. However, there is no guarantee all seats would be safe, or even democratic - there are red parts of blue counties and visa versa.   
I mean they wouldn't be safe per se but in a wave year like 2018 Dems swept almost all the seats in these areas
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lfromnj
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« Reply #21 on: May 04, 2020, 11:32:57 AM »

Have y'all tried drawing with NC on the new population numbers? I've been tinkering around with some maps (nothing finished yet). So far it seems like the population distribution is a little better as far as drawing decent community of interest based districts ( Smiley ) but there seem to be fewer whole-county combinations which make concise districts ( Sad ).

There also seem to be a few other "difficult points." The 1st district has been declining in population all decade even as NC has been gaining a seat, so it doesn't change much from 2010. Eastern North Carolina seems to have had laggy growth in general, but unlike last time it does seem to be possible to draw three ENC districts. Another thing worth noting is that Eastern Wake County is increasingly black; it means that a district based in Johnston or Franklin County might shouldn't cut in in that direction.



Yeah the map with the Charlotte split was with 2018 numbers as its now possible for a majority minority district there while keeping a Safe D white suburban district, anyway I wouldn't try for whole counties in a map rn, 2018 estimates are close to what actually happens but 2 years is still a lot of possible deviation.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #22 on: May 04, 2020, 01:36:03 PM »

Have y'all tried drawing with NC on the new population numbers? I've been tinkering around with some maps (nothing finished yet). So far it seems like the population distribution is a little better as far as drawing decent community of interest based districts ( Smiley ) but there seem to be fewer whole-county combinations which make concise districts ( Sad ).

There also seem to be a few other "difficult points." The 1st district has been declining in population all decade even as NC has been gaining a seat, so it doesn't change much from 2010. Eastern North Carolina seems to have had laggy growth in general, but unlike last time it does seem to be possible to draw three ENC districts. Another thing worth noting is that Eastern Wake County is increasingly black; it means that a district based in Johnston or Franklin County might shouldn't cut in in that direction.



Yeah the map with the Charlotte split was with 2018 numbers as its now possible for a majority minority district there while keeping a Safe D white suburban district, anyway I wouldn't try for whole counties in a map rn, 2018 estimates are close to what actually happens but 2 years is still a lot of possible deviation.

That's fair. Still it's depressing to see that concise whole county NC-11 is basically impossible, at least under the current numbers, especially when there were multiple reasonable whole county combinations in 2010.

Actually you can start from the west and go to Asheville and then drag a county strip to wautaga for a deviation of only +333. Not perfectly compact but still follows the COI of the mountain ranges and allows for the most competitive seat in the region possible. So its basically a no brainer seat.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #23 on: May 04, 2020, 01:44:46 PM »
« Edited: May 04, 2020, 01:49:00 PM by lfromnj »

Have y'all tried drawing with NC on the new population numbers? I've been tinkering around with some maps (nothing finished yet). So far it seems like the population distribution is a little better as far as drawing decent community of interest based districts ( Smiley ) but there seem to be fewer whole-county combinations which make concise districts ( Sad ).

There also seem to be a few other "difficult points." The 1st district has been declining in population all decade even as NC has been gaining a seat, so it doesn't change much from 2010. Eastern North Carolina seems to have had laggy growth in general, but unlike last time it does seem to be possible to draw three ENC districts. Another thing worth noting is that Eastern Wake County is increasingly black; it means that a district based in Johnston or Franklin County might shouldn't cut in in that direction.



Yeah the map with the Charlotte split was with 2018 numbers as its now possible for a majority minority district there while keeping a Safe D white suburban district, anyway I wouldn't try for whole counties in a map rn, 2018 estimates are close to what actually happens but 2 years is still a lot of possible deviation.

That's fair. Still it's depressing to see that concise whole county NC-11 is basically impossible, at least under the current numbers, especially when there were multiple reasonable whole county combinations in 2010.

Actually you can start from the west and go to Asheville and then drag a county strip to wautaga for a deviation of only +333. Not perfectly compact but still follows the COI of the mountain ranges and allows for the most competitive seat in the region possible. So its basically a no brainer seat.

That excludes Henderson County no? Frankly I'd call a version of NC-11 which excludes Henderson County unreasonable, considering how interconnected Buncombe and Henderson are. Still, a good catch, though I might actually prefer a map with a county split to cleaving those two counties.
No just look at Oryx slayers map, it will probably have to take a few precints from the next county over too but seriously this district makes no sense not to make in any court/fair map


Preserves COI's(mountain ranges)
has a mostly reasonable shape with a very slightly odd arm
and keeps a slightly competitive district(Trump got 54% here) and it was only MCrory +2, trends aren't great here for D's but its the best district possible.
Obama lost it by 3.5 in 08 and if you divide the district into 2 parts(Wautaga+Henderson+Buncombe) vs the rest  you get a Roy Cooper +10 and Obama +4, part and a Mccrory +20 which was Mccain +16 so trends aren't completely awful here but it isn't great as Cooper still overperformed in the western rurals.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #24 on: May 04, 2020, 01:52:51 PM »

Have y'all tried drawing with NC on the new population numbers? I've been tinkering around with some maps (nothing finished yet). So far it seems like the population distribution is a little better as far as drawing decent community of interest based districts ( Smiley ) but there seem to be fewer whole-county combinations which make concise districts ( Sad ).

There also seem to be a few other "difficult points." The 1st district has been declining in population all decade even as NC has been gaining a seat, so it doesn't change much from 2010. Eastern North Carolina seems to have had laggy growth in general, but unlike last time it does seem to be possible to draw three ENC districts. Another thing worth noting is that Eastern Wake County is increasingly black; it means that a district based in Johnston or Franklin County might shouldn't cut in in that direction.



Yeah the map with the Charlotte split was with 2018 numbers as its now possible for a majority minority district there while keeping a Safe D white suburban district, anyway I wouldn't try for whole counties in a map rn, 2018 estimates are close to what actually happens but 2 years is still a lot of possible deviation.

That's fair. Still it's depressing to see that concise whole county NC-11 is basically impossible, at least under the current numbers, especially when there were multiple reasonable whole county combinations in 2010.

Actually you can start from the west and go to Asheville and then drag a county strip to wautaga for a deviation of only +333. Not perfectly compact but still follows the COI of the mountain ranges and allows for the most competitive seat in the region possible. So its basically a no brainer seat.

That excludes Henderson County no? Frankly I'd call a version of NC-11 which excludes Henderson County unreasonable, considering how interconnected Buncombe and Henderson are. Still, a good catch, though I might actually prefer a map with a county split to cleaving those two counties.
No just look at Oryx slayers map, it will probably have to take a few precints from the next county over too but seriously this district makes no sense not to make in any court/fair map


Preserves COI's(mountain ranges)
has a mostly reasonable shape with a very slightly odd arm
and keeps a slightly competitive district(Trump got 54% here) and it was only MCrory +2, trends aren't great here for D's but its the best district possible.


I really think Asheville would be Dem enough to dominate that CD by the end of the decade, especially with Boone included.

Again it still Trended R from 2008 to 2016  at the presidential level, it would be a good wave seat for D's to pick up but would still stay GOP out of that, this district might be enough to entice Schuler to come back however.
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