North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Butterfield might need Durham back, in some deal or so considering he is only up by 8 points. I think a 9-5 map is probably what happens. NC D's look likely to take a net of -1 in the state supreme court and possibly -2 to a total of 4-3.

Not good enough. If we don't win the senate and pass hr 1 dem courts need to enforce as many d leaning maps as possible.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I don't care if its 4 or 5, I want a d leaning map lol
NC dems should appeal the Republicans map no matter what they draw

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Technically it should be neither, it would be a swing district but all of us know thats unlikely.

Yeah Harnett, Johnston and southern wake right

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

And I'll say again

Hr1 needs to be passed. I don't care if Biden has to sign an executive order, that way no one will gerrymander. This is insanity and has to stop.  The legislatures have shown they are not capable of drawing fair districts. I dont like when dems do it either, I know you have to fight fire with fire but it needs to stop nationwide.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

And I'll say again

Hr1 needs to be passed. I don't care if Biden has to sign an executive order, that way no one will gerrymander. This is insanity and has to stop.  The legislatures have shown they are not capable of drawing fair districts. I dont like when dems do it either, I know you have to fight fire with fire but it needs to stop nationwide.

would it survive SCOTUS?

I doubt it lol Thats why I'm hoping we win the senate so we could pass it legislatively

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Here's a rough pass at a fair map.

link

Did Biden win your NC-14?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/lekhashupeck/status/1448698473348542466

State senate draft

Democrats could try a VRA lawsuit between 1 and 2 for the county splits but I think those clusters were forced by the algorithm. Nothing too crazy besides Wilmington I guess. Fayetteville I guess is weird but honestly just blame the algorithm there.

Seems to be 20 Biden districts in 2020 although the Northern Wake + Granville would be relatively close.

Robeson Scotland and Hoke being together is great for the Lumbee though.


For Democrats to win a majority they need to win the Nash/Franklin/Vance district which is Trump +1, Wilmington district which is like Trump +3,Robeston,Scott, Hoke which is Trump +8 but Clinton +2 the Wilson/Wayne district at Trump +6, and Cabarrus county which is Trump +8 and zooming left

What are the 2020 numbers on the congressional NC-1?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Welp, hopefully this gets struck down but I doubt it. Newby will probably stall until GOP wins the court

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

What's the Trump-Biden number on the Fayetteville seat(NC-04)

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Renee Ellmers Round 3?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Remember, only the congressional maps can get a mid decade redraw. If the court strikes down the legislative maps, they're stuck with whatever the court does.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/MurphinNC/status/1467895850533851145

Looks like I spoke too soon! Filing halted with like 15 minutes to spare. Fair maps might be back on the menu!

Serves the GOP right after the farce in Wisconsin. Least change, please.

Absolute horsesh**t. Won't matter after 2022 either way.

Let's say the courts rule in favor of the Democrats, and then the NCSC flips in 2022; what would the Republicans do? Mid-decade redistricting that would get sued and hope for a ruling in their favor this time? Is such a thing possible in North Carolina?

According to skill and chance, the state legislative maps cannot be redrawn mid decade but the cds can

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

This is pointless. The SCONC will flip anyway and republicans will draw another gerrymander mid decade

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

RIP to one of Hudson/Bishop

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Hot take- In this environment and given the trends in the black belt/results in similar seats, the black belt seat will flip unless they add Durham to it or something like that

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Hot take- In this environment and given the trends in the black belt/results in similar seats, the black belt seat will flip unless they add Durham to it or something like that

I'm skeptical of a Biden +8 or 9 racially polarized Southern seat flipping

Racial polarization is literally decreasing as we speak. Blacks swung right in 2016 and even further right in 2020. Why do you think Butterfield is retiring? He knew the court was 4-3 dem and would never accept the 10-3-1 map so he had to see some writing on the wall

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I bet they pick Ben Clark's map 4-3

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I bet they pick Ben Clark's map 4-3

That one is the best of the three, although I preferred CST-10 over CST-8.

That Durham split (I know it's not a good COI but it helps us out in the south wake seat lol)

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Somebody or several bodies needs to read the Allen v. Milligan decision with more care, assuming they have read it at all.

Here is the cleanest map I can draw that I had the skill to draw that turns NC-01 into a Gingles CD. It was tough going.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/fe568442-204c-48a4-be07-54e2969d0fff

Can we stop with the splitting of Guilford and Forsyth counties?  I understand that they don’t need to be put in the same district, but at least keep them whole.  Something like the 2016 map is fine in this area, but just keep Guilford whole this time.

If you want to do an effective Republican gerrymander splitting Guilford is basically mandatory.

Another reason why the first order of business of Dems in their next trifecta needs to be to pass a national law mandating that counties and cities cannot be split unless a district(s) is a already fully contained within that county or city and the remainder doesn’t not have enough population to house another whole district.  Would solve the problem here and in Jacksonville FL and SLC Utah.

This is the Ohio rule and we already know it doesn't solve the problem because, uh, Ohio. Counties are bad proxies for COI. Just require partisan proportionality based on contested federal races and opportunity districts, and a requirement that metro areas not be split if it's unnecessary to achieve the prior objectives.

In states like NV, MA, WI, WA etc you have to gerrymander to achieve Partisan proportionality

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Somebody or several bodies needs to read the Allen v. Milligan decision with more care, assuming they have read it at all.

Here is the cleanest map I can draw that I had the skill to draw that turns NC-01 into a Gingles CD. It was tough going.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/fe568442-204c-48a4-be07-54e2969d0fff

Can we stop with the splitting of Guilford and Forsyth counties?  I understand that they don’t need to be put in the same district, but at least keep them whole.  Something like the 2016 map is fine in this area, but just keep Guilford whole this time.

If you want to do an effective Republican gerrymander splitting Guilford is basically mandatory.

Another reason why the first order of business of Dems in their next trifecta needs to be to pass a national law mandating that counties and cities cannot be split unless a district(s) is a already fully contained within that county or city and the remainder doesn’t not have enough population to house another whole district.  Would solve the problem here and in Jacksonville FL and SLC Utah.

This is the Ohio rule and we already know it doesn't solve the problem because, uh, Ohio. Counties are bad proxies for COI. Just require partisan proportionality based on contested federal races and opportunity districts, and a requirement that metro areas not be split if it's unnecessary to achieve the prior objectives.

In states like NV, MA, WI, WA etc you have to gerrymander to achieve Partisan proportionality

Probably CA and CT too.

A fair map of CT would have a trump 2016 seat I think. Not sure about CA

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Idk, I think Robinson will crash and burn and tank the supermajority in the house.