North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[Oryxslayer]

No matter, we will surely impeach those radical judges. Poor idiots, did they really think they could get away with it?

I'm sorry you hate fair maps and black people.

Also, forgive me if I am wrong, but Impeachment threats only mattered before a case to recuse Justices. There aren't the votes to convict of any accused crimes in the Senate. What purposes would that serve now that the verdict is decided besides create living martyrs. Court retention elections often have some of the highest comparable crossover voting - even in NC where this only means 2-5% - so giving the Justices prominence when the GOP's goal should just be to win the 2022 elections is peculiar at best.

Frankly, it appears someone has only been paying attention to the buzzwords.

[NYDem]

I never want to hear again how the gop has a systemic bias in its favor

NY can have a 22-4 map and get away with it

Oregon can get away with its bs

Illinois can get away with its bs

These rulings always go in one direction. Always.

Even if we accept that the post-redistricting House has a "systematic bias" in the Democrats' favor, a debatable assertion at best, that still means that the GOP is systematically favored in our system. Republicans currently have an advantage in the Senate for obvious reasons, and a growing advantage in the Electoral College. That's 1 1/2 branches of the government. The federal judiciary is selected by the President and approved by the Senate, meaning that its selection is also biased in the Republicans' favor. But go ahead and get angry because one half of 1 branch favors the Democrats, all while there is a Republican bias on the other 2 1/2 branches.

[Skill and Chance]

This has been a disaster this cycle for the GOP

On the Margin

Midterms have never been determined by redistricting

It hasn't determined which party had a majority, but there is a substantial difference between an R+15-20 majority and an R+30 majority.

This could make it far easier for Democrats to take back the House in 2024.

NC gop will certainly do a mid decade redraw for 2023 unless the court doesn't flip.

How safe would the R majorities in the state legislature be, though?  They literally read efficiency gap into the state constitution!

Also, worth noting that mid-decade redraws for state legislative maps aren't allowed in NC, so whatever legislative maps result from this process are for the whole decade.

I suppose they could go to SCOTUS with the "independent state legislature" argument since congressional maps are for federal elections.  A favorable ruling would give them back control of NC, OH, and AZ and also throw out the rules in FL, but it would also give Dems a chance to draw 49 67% Biden districts in CA and the NY courts would lose their ability to block the gerrymander there.  It would also result in immediate Dem control of WA and CO redistricting and a probable mid-decade Dem gerrymander in VA.

[Skill and Chance]

No matter, we will surely impeach those radical judges. Poor idiots, did they really think they could get away with it?

Republicans insisted on leaving redistricting to the states and rejected every federal reform proposal for a decade.  If they don't like the results, they are welcome to send at least 10 US Senators to the negotiating table at any time.

[ProgressiveModerate]

My guess is either the GOP doesn't cooperate at all and the court ends up drawing the map, or they try and see if the court will accept something akin to the 2020 map; a 9-5 map that sort of naturally packs Dem voters via some R favorable decisions that isn't a full on gerrymander

[Dan the Roman]

This has been a disaster this cycle for the GOP

On the Margin

Midterms have never been determined by redistricting

It hasn't determined which party had a majority, but there is a substantial difference between an R+15-20 majority and an R+30 majority.

This could make it far easier for Democrats to take back the House in 2024.

NC gop will certainly do a mid decade redraw for 2023 unless the court doesn't flip.

How safe would the R majorities in the state legislature be, though?  They literally read efficiency gap into the state constitution!

Also, worth noting that mid-decade redraws for state legislative maps aren't allowed in NC, so whatever legislative maps result from this process are for the whole decade.

I suppose they could go to SCOTUS with the "independent state legislature" argument since congressional maps are for federal elections.  A favorable ruling would give them back control of NC, OH, and AZ and also throw out the rules in FL, but it would also give Dems a chance to draw 49 67% Biden districts in CA and the NY courts would lose their ability to block the gerrymander there.  It would also result in immediate Dem control of WA and CO redistricting and a probable mid-decade Dem gerrymander in VA.

Pretty safe. The Democrats' real chance to win a State Senate majority was in 2020, when despite losing 5 seats in the State House they gained one in the Senate, and probably would have won a majority with a 1% popular vote lead, almost definitely with a 2% one. The issue for Democrats is they have a bit of an exaggerated view of what gerrymandering does in NC as they view NC like Wisconsin as being about 5% more Democratic than it actually is.

Democrats kind of view NC as a D+1 state which due to gerrymandering behaves like a R+7 one. In reality, it is an R+3 state which because of gerrymandering behaves like an R+7 one. Democrats might win legislative majorities on entirely non-partisan maps in a landslide year like 2018, but even then you would be talking about maybe one to two seat margins. Notice the NCSC Ds went further than last time. They realized that neutral/nonpartisan maps will probably never produce D majorities so demanded affirmative gerrymanders in favor of Democrats with the proportionality stuff.

In short, gerrymandering is largely why the GOP generically would have 32-18 and 73-47 majorities rather than 28-22 and 66-54 ones most years. Democrats range from 45-50% of statewide vote and GOP from 48-54%. As was seen with 2020 statewide races, even a landslide reelection for Cooper wasn't that wide.

[DrScholl]

No matter, we will surely impeach those radical judges. Poor idiots, did they really think they could get away with it?

So you think Donald Trump was unfairly impeached for actually doing wrong things, but you want judges impeached for acting within the law? Republicans aren't entitled to anything at all.

[Vern]

If I were the Democrats I would put up a 7-7 map and a 8-6 map

[lfromnj]

This has been a disaster this cycle for the GOP

On the Margin

Midterms have never been determined by redistricting

It hasn't determined which party had a majority, but there is a substantial difference between an R+15-20 majority and an R+30 majority.

This could make it far easier for Democrats to take back the House in 2024.

NC gop will certainly do a mid decade redraw for 2023 unless the court doesn't flip.

How safe would the R majorities in the state legislature be, though?  They literally read efficiency gap into the state constitution!

Also, worth noting that mid-decade redraws for state legislative maps aren't allowed in NC, so whatever legislative maps result from this process are for the whole decade.

I suppose they could go to SCOTUS with the "independent state legislature" argument since congressional maps are for federal elections.  A favorable ruling would give them back control of NC, OH, and AZ and also throw out the rules in FL, but it would also give Dems a chance to draw 49 67% Biden districts in CA and the NY courts would lose their ability to block the gerrymander there.  It would also result in immediate Dem control of WA and CO redistricting and a probable mid-decade Dem gerrymander in VA.

Pretty safe. The Democrats' real chance to win a State Senate majority was in 2020, when despite losing 5 seats in the State House they gained one in the Senate, and probably would have won a majority with a 1% popular vote lead, almost definitely with a 2% one. The issue for Democrats is they have a bit of an exaggerated view of what gerrymandering does in NC as they view NC like Wisconsin as being about 5% more Democratic than it actually is.

Democrats kind of view NC as a D+1 state which due to gerrymandering behaves like a R+7 one. In reality, it is an R+3 state which because of gerrymandering behaves like an R+7 one. Democrats might win legislative majorities on entirely non-partisan maps in a landslide year like 2018, but even then you would be talking about maybe one to two seat margins. Notice the NCSC Ds went further than last time. They realized that neutral/nonpartisan maps will probably never produce D majorities so demanded affirmative gerrymanders in favor of Democrats with the proportionality stuff.

In short, gerrymandering is largely why the GOP generically would have 32-18 and 73-47 majorities rather than 28-22 and 66-54 ones most years. Democrats range from 45-50% of statewide vote and GOP from 48-54%. As was seen with 2020 statewide races, even a landslide reelection for Cooper wasn't that wide.

Yup this is definitely being overturned. You can even reverse the logic if one wishes . The decision by the NC supreme court clearly prevents the Republicans of Buncombe County from being able to have any representation  on their county commision.  I think the Rs on the court would just a complete reversal though .

Also fun fact. The Wilmington state senate seat was gerrymandered in 2018 and Democrats won it. Later in 2020 this was ungerrymandered and Democrats lost it.

[Mr.Phips]

This has been a disaster this cycle for the GOP

On the Margin

Midterms have never been determined by redistricting

It hasn't determined which party had a majority, but there is a substantial difference between an R+15-20 majority and an R+30 majority.

This could make it far easier for Democrats to take back the House in 2024.

NC gop will certainly do a mid decade redraw for 2023 unless the court doesn't flip.

How safe would the R majorities in the state legislature be, though?  They literally read efficiency gap into the state constitution!

Also, worth noting that mid-decade redraws for state legislative maps aren't allowed in NC, so whatever legislative maps result from this process are for the whole decade.

I suppose they could go to SCOTUS with the "independent state legislature" argument since congressional maps are for federal elections.  A favorable ruling would give them back control of NC, OH, and AZ and also throw out the rules in FL, but it would also give Dems a chance to draw 49 67% Biden districts in CA and the NY courts would lose their ability to block the gerrymander there.  It would also result in immediate Dem control of WA and CO redistricting and a probable mid-decade Dem gerrymander in VA.

Pretty safe. The Democrats' real chance to win a State Senate majority was in 2020, when despite losing 5 seats in the State House they gained one in the Senate, and probably would have won a majority with a 1% popular vote lead, almost definitely with a 2% one. The issue for Democrats is they have a bit of an exaggerated view of what gerrymandering does in NC as they view NC like Wisconsin as being about 5% more Democratic than it actually is.

Democrats kind of view NC as a D+1 state which due to gerrymandering behaves like a R+7 one. In reality, it is an R+3 state which because of gerrymandering behaves like an R+7 one. Democrats might win legislative majorities on entirely non-partisan maps in a landslide year like 2018, but even then you would be talking about maybe one to two seat margins. Notice the NCSC Ds went further than last time. They realized that neutral/nonpartisan maps will probably never produce D majorities so demanded affirmative gerrymanders in favor of Democrats with the proportionality stuff.

In short, gerrymandering is largely why the GOP generically would have 32-18 and 73-47 majorities rather than 28-22 and 66-54 ones most years. Democrats range from 45-50% of statewide vote and GOP from 48-54%. As was seen with 2020 statewide races, even a landslide reelection for Cooper wasn't that wide.

I really don’t think winning the senate majority in 2020 was this easy.  Even Cooper only won 23 out of 50 seats when he won by five statewide.  The only other seat they would have won with less than a five point popular vote lead was the Wilimington seat.

[Mr.Phips]

This has been a disaster this cycle for the GOP

On the Margin

Midterms have never been determined by redistricting

It hasn't determined which party had a majority, but there is a substantial difference between an R+15-20 majority and an R+30 majority.

This could make it far easier for Democrats to take back the House in 2024.

NC gop will certainly do a mid decade redraw for 2023 unless the court doesn't flip.

How safe would the R majorities in the state legislature be, though?  They literally read efficiency gap into the state constitution!

Also, worth noting that mid-decade redraws for state legislative maps aren't allowed in NC, so whatever legislative maps result from this process are for the whole decade.

I suppose they could go to SCOTUS with the "independent state legislature" argument since congressional maps are for federal elections.  A favorable ruling would give them back control of NC, OH, and AZ and also throw out the rules in FL, but it would also give Dems a chance to draw 49 67% Biden districts in CA and the NY courts would lose their ability to block the gerrymander there.  It would also result in immediate Dem control of WA and CO redistricting and a probable mid-decade Dem gerrymander in VA.

Dems would also get control in NJ and draw a 10-2 map.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Because dumping independent commissions wouldn't hurt Democrats, I doubt SCOTUS will do it now. If such a case is raised then they'll either not take it (most likely) or come up with some esoteric reasoning as to why they're not really legal but also why they can't be overturned now like Scalia did.

[Skill and Chance]

Because dumping independent commissions wouldn't hurt Democrats, I doubt SCOTUS will do it now. If such a case is raised then they'll either not take it (most likely) or come up with some esoteric reasoning as to why they're not really legal but also why they can't be overturned now like Scalia did.

It would hurt Democrats significantly if they extended it so far that governors couldn't veto.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Because dumping independent commissions wouldn't hurt Democrats, I doubt SCOTUS will do it now. If such a case is raised then they'll either not take it (most likely) or come up with some esoteric reasoning as to why they're not really legal but also why they can't be overturned now like Scalia did.

It would hurt Democrats significantly if they extended it so far that governor's couldn't veto.

Not something they'd likely do in a case over independent commissions even if they have the votes for that, which I doubt. Plus I can totally see a scenario in 2030 if there's a Republican elected in 2028 where a Democratic wave brings in D majorities in both houses of the Texas Legislature but a popular Republican Governor gets narrowly re-elected.

[Nyvin]

I read through most of the court order but there isn't any real guidance on how to draw the districts other than mentioning metrics and generic measurements (efficiency gap, mean-median difference test, etc) and that it had to adhere to Federal regs and use whole counties when possible. 

The phrase the caught my eye the most was "If some combination of these metrics demonstrate there is significant likelihood that the plan will give the voters of all political parties substantially equal opportunity to translate votes into seats across the plan, then the plan is constitutional"

I'd read that phrase as requiring proportionality in all the maps to some acceptable degree.

Here's what I came up with for a state Trump won by 1.34%.





https://davesredistricting.org/join/921b5964-9f3a-4024-b5dd-520f0aeffbbd

The court might actually demand another Dem seat, but that's the best I could do while minimizing county splits.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I read through most of the court order but there isn't any real guidance on how to draw the districts other than mentioning metrics and generic measurements (efficiency gap, mean-median difference test, etc) and that it had to adhere to Federal regs and use whole counties when possible. 

The phrase the caught my eye the most was "If some combination of these metrics demonstrate there is significant likelihood that the plan will give the voters of all political parties substantially equal opportunity to translate votes into seats across the plan, then the plan is constitutional"

I'd read that phrase as requiring proportionality in all the maps to some acceptable degree.

Here's what I came up with for a state Trump won by 1.34%.





https://davesredistricting.org/join/921b5964-9f3a-4024-b5dd-520f0aeffbbd

The court might actually demand another Dem seat, but that's the best I could do while minimizing county splits.

Nice job. If you really want a 7th Biden seat have the 8th take in all of Cabbarus County

Ye Dems have a slight packing issue in NC, especially since a lot of their “mid sized” cities aren’t enough to make a blue leaning CD (Winston Salem, Asheville, and Fayetteville).

[ProgressiveModerate]

If it weren't for the partisan fairness requirement, a map like this could be quite reasonable from a COI standpoint while still making the map R favorable.

[Torie]

The word "fair" should probably be banned from the English language.

[politicallefty]

If it weren't for the partisan fairness requirement, a map like this could be quite reasonable from a COI standpoint while still making the map R favorable.

I think one of the more rational conceptions keeps Winston-Salem and Greensboro in the same district. Separating the two cities dilutes their influence. I think that and the fact they tried to dismantle the Butterfield district is what put this map over the line. A 9R-5D  map with a few lean R seats probably would have been acceptable overall.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

RIP to one of Hudson/Bishop

[Oryxslayer]

Here's my attempt at an equitable map for NC. Note - I use the word equitable not fair. A equitable map looks to state's lean - in this case a marginal swing state - and the efficiency gap and corrects for imbalances. A fair map would need to do neither of those things cause every state would be using the same criteria to avoid gerrymandering.

As it should be aware by now I view the goals of minority access and opportunity to be paramount, especially in Southern States, and I also always get the map down to 0 deviation after DRA released block edits.



Lets look at the map East to West, numbered based on the old system.

NC-01: Biden+14, Clinton+16.1, Cooper '20+19.2, Lewis Holley+13.4.

Goal here is a seat that is plurality African American by population without using the Triangle. And while DRA says this seat is 46.4% AA to 43.1% White, that is a distortion of the truth. Civil Rights groups when analyzing seats prefer to use the data DRA calls "NH Race" where the Others and Two+ Races categories are their own separate thing. This is because those groups cannot be easily measured to behave like the single-race electorate. DRA does something in the backend with the PL-94 171 files to distribute the respondents with mixed races between the minority groups. Downloading the files from the redistrictingdatahub and using GIS dissolve reveals that under a single race analysis that treats mixed and other groups separately, this seat is 43.9% African American to 43.1% White by Population. Also obviously remains majority-minority VAP, but also by CVAP.

NC-07: Trump '20+19.4, Trump '16+23.5, Forest+13.1, Robinson+21.2.

This should be the standard seat for this region, given that the six whole counties in the seat are only 188 population short of a single seat, and it keeps the core Wilmington metro whole.

NC-03: Trump '20+28.3, Trump '16+30.2, Forest+22.5, Robinson+29.6.

The White seat between two minority seats. One could best describe the seat as a mid-belt seat, covering the are between Fayetteville, Rocky Mount, Raleigh, and the Ocean, extending out to the Albemarle and Pamlico sounds. However, it has to also take in the White counties South of VA beach, cause they are too lily-White for a minority seat.

NC-09: Biden+2.3, Clinton+5.5, Cooper '20+10.1, Lewis Holley+3.4.

Obviously a majority minority seat given the presence of the Lumbee, but it likely wouldn't be an easily performing. The majority of the Lumbee are now likely to prefer the GOP, whereas the African Americans and Hispanics prefer the Democrats. A competitive and minority seat though is desirable given equitability. Bishop might hop on over here rather than risk a primary, given his decent Lumbee appeal, but of course he will be facing Charles Graham - an actual Lumbee.

NC-04: Biden+38.6, Clinton+37.8, Cooper '20+43.2, Lewis Holley+37.2.

New Research triangle minority access seat that pairs East Raleigh with Durham via South Franklin. Majority Minority by VAP and likely a plurality AA Democratic primary electorate given the presence of a few GOP White areas.

NC-02: Biden+22.9, Clinton+15.7, Cooper '20+28.6, Lewis Holley+18.4.

Nested Wake County White seat. Wake Forest is in this seat even though it should be in NC-04 since adding it in and dropping East Raleigh diverse areas would make the seat majority White by VAP.

NC-14: Biden+10, Clinton+7.5, Cooper '20+16.4, Lewis Holley+7.6.

Somewhat marginal Dem seat between the two metro areas. Dem votes mainly come from Chapel Hill, Chatham, and the mainly-Apex slice of Wake. GOP areas are mainly in the west. That said, this is a diverse area politically and only Chapel Hill can be said to be entirely for one party, and that is reflected in the topline.

NC-06: Biden+27.9, Clinton+25.1, Cooper '20+33.5, Lewis Holley+25.2.

All Cities of the metro area in one seat, and why wouldn't they? Together they are less than 100K away from a seat, and that 100K is obtained through linking them together. Also made sure the seat was majority-minority by VAP, but the Dem primary electorate is likely plurality African American anyway.

NC-13: Trump '20+41.1, Trump '16+42.2, Forest+32.6, Robinson+42.4.

Lily-White suburban-exurban central NC Republican seat. The compacting of the Charlotte suburban seats inevidably leads to the emergence of something like this central seat.

NC-08: Trump '20+2.1, Trump '16+9.2, Cooper+2, Robinson+5.8.

This seat could be made into a version that voted for Biden, but it isn't. This is because of equitability. Instead it is drawn as a mirror to NC-09 with both seats +2 for their party. This seat is moving towards the Dems, NC-09 towards the GOP.

NC-12: Biden+45.2, Clinton+40.5, Cooper '20+47.3, Lewis Holley+41.8.

Obvious majority-minority Charlotte seat is obvious, though this version is drawn so that it takes in some of the whiter south city - so as to given NC-08 some minority precincts and become marginal - but not too many so as to prevent the seat from being majority-minority by CVAP.

NC-10: Trump '20+29.4, Trump '16+33, Forest+23.9, Robinson+31.4.

Not much to say about the White west suburbs seat other than it compacts down into a neat and geographically sensible 4 county + North Charlotte block.

NC-05: Trump '20+46.9, Trump '16+46.9, Forest+37.7, Robinson+46.

Western NC or non-Mountain White Appalachian Republican seat. Reflects the human Geography of the region better than a version with Iredell.

NC-11: Trump '20+7.2, Trump '16+12.4, Forest+1.4, Robinson+9.

The mirrored version on NC-14 is the Western NC Appalachian mountain seat, obviously made competitive by Ashville. This collection of counties up to Boone is only overpopulated by 3K, so only a single precinct cut is needed and it should be the obviously alignment. Adding in Boone also produces political competition - once again equitability. Cawthorn will have to run back here if he doesn't want to primary a fellow Republican.

DRA link for those that desire it.  

[patzer]

RIP to one of Hudson/Bishop

To be fair, there are only seven Republican incumbents running for reelection- it's quite possible to make a 7-7 map shoring up all of them.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This map would never happen for a variety of reasons, but here's an attempt to maximize black power. Unfortunately for NC Dems, black voters are distributed in a way which makes getting them seats pretty difficult. In this map, 1 is 45% black, 14 is 40% black, 6 is 36% black, and 12 is 41% black.

Again, this is not necessarily the best or even a good map from a COI perspective, just an experiment

[Nyvin]

Nice job. If you really want a 7th Biden seat have the 8th take in all of Cabbarus County

Ye Dems have a slight packing issue in NC, especially since a lot of their “mid sized” cities aren’t enough to make a blue leaning CD (Winston Salem, Asheville, and Fayetteville).

I heeded this advice, since that's the most likely place for a 7th dem seat.






https://davesredistricting.org/join/2475684a-c73c-4263-a6c1-947c274bcb2c

I think this is an authentic 8-7 map,  the courts would probably like it.

[nclib]

Great news! Dumb (but not surprising) for the GOP to try to pass a map just as partisan as the map that was rejected for use in the 2020 election.

I think this is an authentic 8-7 map,  the courts would probably like it.

I don't think the courts will allow an 8-7 map.