North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[Sol]

This has been a disaster this cycle for the GOP

On the Margin

Midterms have never been determined by redistricting

It hasn't determined which party had a majority, but there is a substantial difference between an R+15-20 majority and an R+30 majority.

This could make it far easier for Democrats to take back the House in 2024.

NC gop will certainly do a mid decade redraw for 2023 unless the court doesn't flip.

I forget if it’s the legislature or Congress, but I think one of those can only be drawn once per decade

Legislature; Congress can and probably will be redrawn post-2022. Legislature might be redrawn too tbh by a Republican controlled court post 2022, but that's a bit vaguer.

Good news, though I'm not a fan of using proportionality standards, which in combination with the county cluster rules will probably result in crummy districts.

[new_patomic]

To be fair this cycle has been 'bad' the GOP in part because the last cycle was such an unmitigated win for them. Even without court interventions it would probably be hard to do that much better.

[GALeftist]

To be fair this cycle has been 'bad' the GOP in part because the last cycle was such an unmitigated win for them. Even without court interventions it would probably be hard to do that much better.

Hey! I'll have you know that Illinois, Arkansas, and West Virginia Republican Parties languished for untold years under the demonratic gerrymanders there.

[Pink Panther]

I am so surprised. This totally didn't happen a couple of years ago!

[Brittain33]

I never want to hear again how the gop has a systemic bias in its favor

NY can have a 22-4 map and get away with it

Oregon can get away with its bs

Illinois can get away with its bs

These rulings always go in one direction. Always.

1. New York's litigation has just begun.
2. This is the 3rd redistricting cycle of my adult lifetime and the last two favored Republicans heavily, most especially in 2010. If Democrats have a small advantage this time (and only because so many R states like TX locked in good maps in past cycles) it is still new and small.

[lfromnj]

Anyway excited for the Libertarian state house seat

[7,052,770]

I never want to hear again how the gop has a systemic bias in its favor

NY can have a 22-4 map and get away with it

Oregon can get away with its bs

Illinois can get away with its bs

These rulings always go in one direction. Always.

And yet the national map is a lock to have an overall Republican slant.

[GALeftist]

The real reason why these decisions get so much blowback, of course, is because some Republicans correctly realize that they might mean that the Republicans have to win the NPV for the House in a presidential year to get a trifecta this decade and that they have chosen to change their coalition to one which is hyper-efficient in the Senate and very efficient in the Electoral College at the expense of appealing to a popular majority. Sorry, guys! Not our fault!

[Ritz]

I never want to hear again how the gop has a systemic bias in its favor

NY can have a 22-4 map and get away with it

Oregon can get away with its bs

Illinois can get away with its bs

These rulings always go in one direction. Always.

And yet the national map is a lock to have an overall Republican slant.

It's not really a lock at all.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Where would a sixth Dem district even come from? I count one seat in Charlotte, one in Raleigh, one in Durham/Chapel Hill, one in Greensboro/Winston-Salem and one in the Northeast black belt (that's trending R).

It’s very easy to draw 5 democratic seats in the north central region, plus 2 competitive (or one safe, one Republican leaning competitive) in the Charlotte suburbs and the black area around Lumberton, Fayetteville. This adds another minority seat too!

[Virginiá]

I never want to hear again how the gop has a systemic bias in its favor

How is it not true for the Senate and currently the EC? It's starting to even out for the House due to changes in party coalitions and redistricting "wins," but as far as the Senate goes, it is still very much a major factor.

The systemic bias issue was never solely about gerrymandering and I'm pretty sure few if any argued as much, either.

[7,052,770]

I never want to hear again how the gop has a systemic bias in its favor

NY can have a 22-4 map and get away with it

Oregon can get away with its bs

Illinois can get away with its bs

These rulings always go in one direction. Always.

And yet the national map is a lock to have an overall Republican slant.

It's not really a lock at all.

The redistricting experts on Twitter seem to think otherwise, that a 50-50 national House popular vote split in 2022 will almost certainly lead to a Republican controlled House.

[MillennialModerate]

I never want to hear again how the gop has a systemic bias in its favor

NY can have a 22-4 map and get away with it

Oregon can get away with its bs

Illinois can get away with its bs

These rulings always go in one direction. Always.

And yet the national map is a lock to have an overall Republican slant.

It's not really a lock at all.

The redistricting experts on Twitter seem to think otherwise, that a 50-50 national House popular vote split in 2022 will almost certainly lead to a Republican controlled House.

I could deal with a slight R bias…. But once the Dems win the popular vote by 2%…. It should be a lock they have control of the house. Like the electoral college. If Dems lost the EC after winning the popular vote by 50k… I could deal. But like this year if they had won the popular vote by only 6 million they would’ve likely lost the EC that is INSANE

[Ritz]

I never want to hear again how the gop has a systemic bias in its favor

NY can have a 22-4 map and get away with it

Oregon can get away with its bs

Illinois can get away with its bs

These rulings always go in one direction. Always.

And yet the national map is a lock to have an overall Republican slant.

It's not really a lock at all.

The redistricting experts on Twitter seem to think otherwise, that a 50-50 national House popular vote split in 2022 will almost certainly lead to a Republican controlled House.

Maybe back last year, but the current consensus seems to favor the House having a neutral bias or only a slight one for either party.

[Oryxslayer]

I never want to hear again how the gop has a systemic bias in its favor

NY can have a 22-4 map and get away with it

Oregon can get away with its bs

Illinois can get away with its bs

These rulings always go in one direction. Always.

And yet the national map is a lock to have an overall Republican slant.

It's not really a lock at all.

The redistricting experts on Twitter seem to think otherwise, that a 50-50 national House popular vote split in 2022 will almost certainly lead to a Republican controlled House.

You obviously are out of the loop cause Dave Wasserman and Nate Cohn, among many others, now expect the House to probably be a bit to the left of the 2020 popular vote. This is still a slight R bias compared to if the entire nation were mapped using the same standards: just as the median senate seat was 4 points to the right of the 2020 popular vote, the median House seat would probably be something like 3 points to the left. This is just what happens when parties focus on the easiest path to the presidency, and one parties path doesn't involve winning the popular vote.

Now, what you may be confused by is when other situational factors, like retirements, funding, candidates - and how a handful of incumbents are in mismatched seats by partisanship - that go beyond the overall topline analysis. But the GOP will have to take seats Biden won to get a majority, whereas the Dems in 2018 could just walk Clintons path to victory. And its easy to imagine a Dem majority in 2024, unless the topline is a landslide.

[7,052,770]

I never want to hear again how the gop has a systemic bias in its favor

NY can have a 22-4 map and get away with it

Oregon can get away with its bs

Illinois can get away with its bs

These rulings always go in one direction. Always.

And yet the national map is a lock to have an overall Republican slant.

It's not really a lock at all.

The redistricting experts on Twitter seem to think otherwise, that a 50-50 national House popular vote split in 2022 will almost certainly lead to a Republican controlled House.

You obviously are out of the loop cause Dave Wasserman and Nate Cohn, among many others, now expect the House to probably be a bit to the left of the 2020 popular vote. This is still a slight R bias compared to if the entire nation were mapped using the same standards: just as the median senate seat was 4 points to the right of the 2020 popular vote, the median House seat would probably be something like 3 points to the left. This is just what happens when parties focus on the easiest path to the presidency, and one parties path doesn't involve winning the popular vote.

Now, what you may be confused by is when other situational factors, like retirements, funding, candidates - and how a handful of incumbents are in mismatched seats by partisanship - that go beyond the overall topline analysis. But the GOP will have to take seats Biden won to get a majority, whereas the Dems in 2018 could just walk Clintons path to victory. And its easy to imagine a Dem majority in 2024, unless the topline is a landslide.

Your two Tweets agree with me. Wasserman says a 2 or 3 seat gain from current maps for Dems, which would still be a Republican lean, and Cohn is skeptical of the idea that we could end up with a Dem-leaning map, but doesn't dismiss the possibility altogether. I follow both of them on Twitter, as well as G. Elliot Morris.

Ultimately, it comes down to exactly what people are talking about when they are discuss leans. I am referring to which way the House goes in an exactly 50-50 map by national House popular vote, not based on Biden districts (since Biden did better than 50-50 in the two-party vote for Trump, and even if he didn't, it would be a presidential vote and not a House vote), and not based on a comparison to last decade's super gerrymandered map. But as Cohn says in the Tweet, we just won't know for sure until we get the rest of the maps.

However, the fact that 100% of one party's Representatives and Senators support banning gerrymandering, and 0% of the other party does really speaks volumes about which side is benefiting more from it.

[patzer]

Here's my go at a fair map. 8 Trump-6 Biden in 2020, but two of the Trump districts are Trump+1 and Trump+2 so essentially tossups, making a 6-6-2 map. I tried to largely base it around existing districts and incumbents- flipped the 13th blue because its incumbent is retiring.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/67e98765-689f-491f-ae3c-f161f714ad8f

[Pericles]

I never want to hear again how the gop has a systemic bias in its favor

NY can have a 22-4 map and get away with it

Oregon can get away with its bs

Illinois can get away with its bs

These rulings always go in one direction. Always.

And yet the national map is a lock to have an overall Republican slant.

It's not really a lock at all.

The redistricting experts on Twitter seem to think otherwise, that a 50-50 national House popular vote split in 2022 will almost certainly lead to a Republican controlled House.

You obviously are out of the loop cause Dave Wasserman and Nate Cohn, among many others, now expect the House to probably be a bit to the left of the 2020 popular vote. This is still a slight R bias compared to if the entire nation were mapped using the same standards: just as the median senate seat was 4 points to the right of the 2020 popular vote, the median House seat would probably be something like 3 points to the left. This is just what happens when parties focus on the easiest path to the presidency, and one parties path doesn't involve winning the popular vote.

Now, what you may be confused by is when other situational factors, like retirements, funding, candidates - and how a handful of incumbents are in mismatched seats by partisanship - that go beyond the overall topline analysis. But the GOP will have to take seats Biden won to get a majority, whereas the Dems in 2018 could just walk Clintons path to victory. And its easy to imagine a Dem majority in 2024, unless the topline is a landslide.

The tipping point district could vote very slightly to the left of the nation in 2022, but in 2024 with lots of swing district Republican incumbents that should shift the lean of the map slightly. By then, Democrats would likely need to win the popular vote at least slightly to win a majority.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Glad to see that god awful congressional map was overturned (I agree the legistlative maps generally weren't terrible), but still kinda sad how we could get a fair map for 2 years that is redrawn back into a gerrymander as soon as Rs flip the court.

[Roll Roons]

The NCGOP just completely overreached with the initial map. I feel like it wouldn't have been overturned had they kept Guilford intact and made Butterfield's district a few points more Dem.

[ProgressiveModerate]

What I'm most curious about is how the new maps handle the greater Raleigh metro, including Durham. It feels like the size of COIs is always slighly off the CD size

[Vern]

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::c4f80bd3-cfea-4095-b83f-53618a371d03

This map has 3 minority districts. Which are 1, 8 and 11. 

Here is a map I did not too long ago. I think this would be a fair map for NC

[ProgressiveModerate]

I never want to hear again how the gop has a systemic bias in its favor

NY can have a 22-4 map and get away with it

Oregon can get away with its bs

Illinois can get away with its bs

These rulings always go in one direction. Always.

And yet the national map is a lock to have an overall Republican slant.

It's not really a lock at all.

The redistricting experts on Twitter seem to think otherwise, that a 50-50 national House popular vote split in 2022 will almost certainly lead to a Republican controlled House.

You obviously are out of the loop cause Dave Wasserman and Nate Cohn, among many others, now expect the House to probably be a bit to the left of the 2020 popular vote. This is still a slight R bias compared to if the entire nation were mapped using the same standards: just as the median senate seat was 4 points to the right of the 2020 popular vote, the median House seat would probably be something like 3 points to the left. This is just what happens when parties focus on the easiest path to the presidency, and one parties path doesn't involve winning the popular vote.

Now, what you may be confused by is when other situational factors, like retirements, funding, candidates - and how a handful of incumbents are in mismatched seats by partisanship - that go beyond the overall topline analysis. But the GOP will have to take seats Biden won to get a majority, whereas the Dems in 2018 could just walk Clintons path to victory. And its easy to imagine a Dem majority in 2024, unless the topline is a landslide.

Your two Tweets agree with me. Wasserman says a 2 or 3 seat gain from current maps for Dems, which would still be a Republican lean, and Cohn is skeptical of the idea that we could end up with a Dem-leaning map, but doesn't dismiss the possibility altogether. I follow both of them on Twitter, as well as G. Elliot Morris.

Ultimately, it comes down to exactly what people are talking about when they are discuss leans. I am referring to which way the House goes in an exactly 50-50 map by national House popular vote, not based on Biden districts (since Biden did better than 50-50 in the two-party vote for Trump, and even if he didn't, it would be a presidential vote and not a House vote), and not based on a comparison to last decade's super gerrymandered map. But as Cohn says in the Tweet, we just won't know for sure until we get the rest of the maps.

However, the fact that 100% of one party's Representatives and Senators support banning gerrymandering, and 0% of the other party does really speaks volumes about which side is benefiting more from it.

When they say "2 or 3" seat gain, they're quantifying it specifically to 2022. 538 for instance says Dems gain 10 Dem leaning seats, but their methodology is also flaws (i.e. TX-32 is a Dem "gain"). I have run the numbers before, and if most remaining open questions continue to fall Dems way, then the median seat will vote to the left of the nation, which it seems there's a very viable chance happens. Either way, i think the House bias ends up being pretty insignificant at the start of the decade, and it really comes down to how a few candidates do in the tipping point races.

Furthermore, I think Rs are less likely to support gerrymandering Ban because it's part of their general ideology to begin with and it helps to give them locks on many state legistlatures, but on the House level the playing field is pretty even as long as the prior year isn't a wave. If going into 2030, Democrats manage to control most swing state legislatures, I guarantee you the GOP position will change.

[BigSerg]

No matter, we will surely impeach those radical judges. Poor idiots, did they really think they could get away with it?

[BoiseBoy]

No matter, we will surely impeach those radical judges. Poor idiots, did they really think they could get away with it?

I'm sorry you hate fair maps and black people.