North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[Nyvin]

Great news! Dumb (but not surprising) for the GOP to try to pass a map just as partisan as the map that was rejected for use in the 2020 election.

I think this is an authentic 8-7 map,  the courts would probably like it.

I don't think the courts will allow an 8-7 map.

duh, oopps.

[nclib]

I wasn't sure if the post about Wasserman that you just deleted, was serious or not.

[Nyvin]

I wasn't sure if the post about Wasserman that you just deleted, was serious or not.

My map has the same basic config as his, just I split way fewer counties, although I don't get zero deviation, that's too much work.

I don't know why 8-7 got into my head for NC.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1489764964244074496

[ProgressiveModerate]

If I could this is the map I would submit:



It keeps COIs together, is relatively fair from a partisanship standpoint, protects minorities (mainly black voters), and limits County splits

[DrScholl]

If proportionality is to be considered then this would create a 6-6-2 map with an opportunity for a tied delegation or 8-6 in either direction.

[Sol]

RIP to one of Hudson/Bishop

To be fair, there are only seven Republican incumbents running for reelection- it's quite possible to make a 7-7 map shoring up all of them.

Hudson and Bishop both live in the areas that would likely be included in a competitive Charlotte suburban seat though--Hudson lives in Concord and Bishop in South Charlotte.

[jimrtex]

The word "fair" should probably be banned from the English language.

Should we switch "fair" to "middling"?

[compucomp]

I can't post Twitter links at work but Dave Wasserman said there, citing someone else, that NC Republicans may refuse to draw another map, because if the court draws a map it is effective for one cycle only, and they can hope to retake the NCSC in 2022 and then put their gerrymander back into place in 2023.

[lfromnj]

I can't post Twitter links at work but Dave Wasserman said there, citing someone else, that NC Republicans may refuse to draw another map, because if the court draws a map it is effective for one cycle only, and they can hope to retake the NCSC in 2022 and then put their gerrymander back into place in 2023.

https://www.ncleg.gov/EnactedLegislation/Statutes/HTML/BySection/Chapter_120/GS_120-2.4.html

In the event the General Assembly does not act to remedy any identified defects to its plan within that period of time, the court may impose an interim districting plan for use in the next general election only, but that interim districting plan may differ from the districting plan enacted by the General Assembly only to the extent necessary to remedy any defects identified by the court.

I get what they did for congressional maps but still don't understand why they want to force a radical redraw of relatively reasonable legislative maps instead of just making them more reasonable or force consistency. In the state senate just force the NE redraw and state house just needs a few more D winnable seats in areas like Cabarrus/Gastonia. Redraw Forsyth as well.

[ProgressiveModerate]

God why do NC laws basically guarantee  the legislature can guarantee no matter what.

[lfromnj]

God why do NC laws basically guarantee  the legislature can guarantee no matter what.

The house ... always wins

[DrScholl]

God why do NC laws basically guarantee  the legislature can guarantee no matter what.

Because old world Democrats were afraid of a Republican winning the Governor's seat and did all they could to seal their powers. Little did they know that some day that the situation would be reversed and a Democratic Governor would be hamstrung.

[If my soul was made of stone]

God why do NC laws basically guarantee  the legislature can guarantee no matter what.

Because old world Democrats were afraid of a Republican winning the Governor's seat and did all they could to seal their powers. Little did they know that some day that the situation would be reversed and a Democratic Governor would be hamstrung.

The office of North Carolina Governor didn't have veto power over anything until the 90s, and since then overrides only require three-fifths of the legislature!

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/NCCapitol/status/1490798277431906317?s=20&t=XmuZ1nlsNIlp...

So there will be some maps on the Justice's desks for them to potentially toss aside.

[Antonio the Sixth]

God why do NC laws basically guarantee  the legislature can guarantee no matter what.

Because old world Democrats were afraid of a Republican winning the Governor's seat and did all they could to seal their powers. Little did they know that some day that the situation would be reversed and a Democratic Governor would be hamstrung.

Yeah, there's no denying that NC Dems f**ked around and found out when it comes to bending and twisting democratic norms beyond recognition. Of course, what's true for one state Democratic party is true for the entire national GOP.

[Virginiá]

God why do NC laws basically guarantee  the legislature can guarantee no matter what.

Because old world Democrats were afraid of a Republican winning the Governor's seat and did all they could to seal their powers. Little did they know that some day that the situation would be reversed and a Democratic Governor would be hamstrung.

tbf, while you're right about the shenanigans of the old southern democrats, I'm pretty sure this interim map requirement was actually a change by the NCGOP post-2016 when they first lost control of the state supreme court and feared their maps would get struck down. They did it to limit the power of the court for this exact reason.

The fact is, at least in North Carolina, so long as Democrats do not have even occasional control of at least one chamber of the GA, it's going to be really hard to stop Republicans from gerrymandering and transferring power around to keep themselves in control most of the time even when they lose control of the executive branch. It's plausible with control of the executive and the judicial branches, but not viable to hold those in a rigidly partisan R+3 state.

I'd love to be wrong but I think the story of North Carolina politics for the 2020s will be one that started out great from a Democratic perspective and then quickly went wayward, and right back to its regularly-scheduled Republican-controlled fiefdom after the good people of NC inevitably opt to vote in a Republican state supreme court by 50.1% - 49.9%

[ProgressiveModerate]

It would be funny if somehow Democrats actually end up winning at least one if not both chambers of the GA assembly in 2022 under the new Court map. This is extremely unlikely, though certainly not impossible.

Democrats are extremely lucky though that the County Splitting rules for districts are in place because it curbs GOP gerrymandering at least a bit.

The bad news for Dems in NC is their self-packing problem will probably get worse. Yes, some 50-50 suburbs are likely to get bluer, but the fact is most rural D areas are depopulating and getting redder by the day.

My guess is Dems will control NC legislature when/if the blue bubbles of the cities actually become close to a majority of the population.

I suspect statewide NC is going to be in reach of both parties for a while; there are just so many counteracting trends. Ultimately assuming political coalitions roughly stay the same, I think Dems and the cities will eventually begin win out more and more though

[lfromnj]

It would be funny if somehow Democrats actually end up winning at least one if not both chambers of the GA assembly in 2022 under the new Court map. This is extremely unlikely, though certainly not impossible.

Democrats are extremely lucky though that the County Splitting rules for districts are in place because it curbs GOP gerrymandering at least a bit.

The bad news for Dems in NC is their self-packing problem will probably get worse. Yes, some 50-50 suburbs are likely to get bluer, but the fact is most rural D areas are depopulating and getting redder by the day.

My guess is Dems will control NC legislature when/if the blue bubbles of the cities actually become close to a majority of the population

If you kept the GOP map in the senate but fixed the NE district here are the swing districts.

1 Exurban/Black mix that is Clinton Trump. Trended R for 2020.
One NE black seat that is Biden +4 and trending R
One Trump +8 seat that voted for Clinton based in Robeson.
One Cabarrus seat that had a very strong D trend in 2020
3 swing seats in Mecklenburg and Wake all of which have trended very D except the northern wake one which is partially blunted by rural Granville.

Overall 22 Biden seats and 28 Trump seats which seems relatively reasonable and a lot of Clinton -Trump / Trump- Biden seats which shows the map is quite responsive.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It would be funny if somehow Democrats actually end up winning at least one if not both chambers of the GA assembly in 2022 under the new Court map. This is extremely unlikely, though certainly not impossible.

Democrats are extremely lucky though that the County Splitting rules for districts are in place because it curbs GOP gerrymandering at least a bit.

The bad news for Dems in NC is their self-packing problem will probably get worse. Yes, some 50-50 suburbs are likely to get bluer, but the fact is most rural D areas are depopulating and getting redder by the day.

My guess is Dems will control NC legislature when/if the blue bubbles of the cities actually become close to a majority of the population

If you kept the GOP map in the senate but fixed the NE district here are the swing districts.

1 Exurban/Black mix that is Clinton Trump. Trended R for 2020.
One NE black seat that is Biden +4 and trending R
One Trump +8 seat that voted for Clinton based in Robeson.
One Cabarrus seat that had a very strong D trend in 2020
3 swing seats in Mecklenburg and Wake all of which have trended very D except the northern wake one which is partially blunted by rural Granville.

Overall 22 Biden seats and 28 Trump seats which seems relatively reasonable and a lot of Clinton -Trump / Trump- Biden seats which shows the map is quite responsive.

Ye I think the Court is kind of overplaying it's hand a bit when it comes to the state legislative maps, though I think what the GOP did with the NE really gave the impression they drew the entire map with bad faith.

It important to remember the court isn't an expert on redistricting, so a lot of their opinion will be based on visual observations and stuff.

Makes me think the court will implement a D-leaning map which may give Dems a narrow path but still a path to control one of the chambers in 2022.

[lfromnj]

It would be funny if somehow Democrats actually end up winning at least one if not both chambers of the GA assembly in 2022 under the new Court map. This is extremely unlikely, though certainly not impossible.

Democrats are extremely lucky though that the County Splitting rules for districts are in place because it curbs GOP gerrymandering at least a bit.

The bad news for Dems in NC is their self-packing problem will probably get worse. Yes, some 50-50 suburbs are likely to get bluer, but the fact is most rural D areas are depopulating and getting redder by the day.

My guess is Dems will control NC legislature when/if the blue bubbles of the cities actually become close to a majority of the population

If you kept the GOP map in the senate but fixed the NE district here are the swing districts.

1 Exurban/Black mix that is Clinton Trump. Trended R for 2020.
One NE black seat that is Biden +4 and trending R
One Trump +8 seat that voted for Clinton based in Robeson.
One Cabarrus seat that had a very strong D trend in 2020
3 swing seats in Mecklenburg and Wake all of which have trended very D except the northern wake one which is partially blunted by rural Granville.

Overall 22 Biden seats and 28 Trump seats which seems relatively reasonable and a lot of Clinton -Trump / Trump- Biden seats which shows the map is quite responsive.

Ye I think the Court is kind of overplaying it's hand a bit when it comes to the state legislative maps, though I think what the GOP did with the NE really gave the impression they drew the entire map with bad faith.

It important to remember the court isn't an expert on redistricting, so a lot of their opinion will be based on visual observations and stuff.

Makes me think the court will implement a D-leaning map which may give Dems a narrow path but still a path to control one of the chambers in 2022.

Anita Earls was the redistricting lawyer for Democrats in 2010. She knows what she is doing.

https://twitter.com/StephenBWiley/status/1484258786105778185?cxt=HHwWkoCzyZDgkpk...

Most of this thread is without context(VRA districts being significantly changed since 2016) but she now wants to claim the Durham exurban/rural district she drew 10 years ago is now an egregious gerrymander.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Just to be 100% clear

The only way Dems could keep a “fair” map in place for the decade is always controlling at least either the State Supreme Court or at least 1 chamber of fue legistlature?

[lfromnj]

It would be funny if somehow Democrats actually end up winning at least one if not both chambers of the GA assembly in 2022 under the new Court map. This is extremely unlikely, though certainly not impossible.

Democrats are extremely lucky though that the County Splitting rules for districts are in place because it curbs GOP gerrymandering at least a bit.

The bad news for Dems in NC is their self-packing problem will probably get worse. Yes, some 50-50 suburbs are likely to get bluer, but the fact is most rural D areas are depopulating and getting redder by the day.

My guess is Dems will control NC legislature when/if the blue bubbles of the cities actually become close to a majority of the population

If you kept the GOP map in the senate but fixed the NE district here are the swing districts.

1 Exurban/Black mix that is Clinton Trump. Trended R for 2020.
One NE black seat that is Biden +4 and trending R
One Trump +8 seat that voted for Clinton based in Robeson.
One Cabarrus seat that had a very strong D trend in 2020
3 swing seats in Mecklenburg and Wake all of which have trended very D except the northern wake one which is partially blunted by rural Granville.

Overall 22 Biden seats and 28 Trump seats which seems relatively reasonable and a lot of Clinton -Trump / Trump- Biden seats which shows the map is quite responsive.

Ye I think the Court is kind of overplaying it's hand a bit when it comes to the state legislative maps, though I think what the GOP did with the NE really gave the impression they drew the entire map with bad faith.

It important to remember the court isn't an expert on redistricting, so a lot of their opinion will be based on visual observations and stuff.

Makes me think the court will implement a D-leaning map which may give Dems a narrow path but still a path to control one of the chambers in 2022.

25 Biden seats + 1 Clinton-Trump Exurban Raleigh/Black belt seat and 1 Clinton Trump Robeson county seat.

61 biden seats + D friendly as possible Robeson seat. (Make All Wake/Meck/Buncombe seats Safe D which is a total of 29.)'

This is basically a Texas style gerrymander more or less. NC Dem geography isn't really that bad legislatively overall. As I showed a fair senate map is probably 22 Biden seats but getting to that half way mark does seem a bit hard. They could just overturn the county provision and institute their own gerrymander from there I guess which would be the smart thing to do if they were going down this route anyway.

[Vern]

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::67973db4-edc3-4337-975b-85dcaa16621e

This would be fun map. 1,2,3,4 and 5 all are lean to strong Biden. 6(Biden),12(Trump) and 14(Trump) are all with-in a few point. and the rest are Trump lean to strong.

In a decent year Dems could win 6,12 and 14 while holding on to 1-5. But in a good Republican year they could win 6,12, 14 and maybe 5 while holding on to the others. The good thing for Dems about this map is 5, 6 and 11 are going to be trending toward them while 12 will bounce back and forward. 14 is a hard one to judge. It will most likely be a slight lean Republican district.

DRA has this as a 4-4-6 map.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It would be funny if somehow Democrats actually end up winning at least one if not both chambers of the GA assembly in 2022 under the new Court map. This is extremely unlikely, though certainly not impossible.

Democrats are extremely lucky though that the County Splitting rules for districts are in place because it curbs GOP gerrymandering at least a bit.

The bad news for Dems in NC is their self-packing problem will probably get worse. Yes, some 50-50 suburbs are likely to get bluer, but the fact is most rural D areas are depopulating and getting redder by the day.

My guess is Dems will control NC legislature when/if the blue bubbles of the cities actually become close to a majority of the population

If you kept the GOP map in the senate but fixed the NE district here are the swing districts.

1 Exurban/Black mix that is Clinton Trump. Trended R for 2020.
One NE black seat that is Biden +4 and trending R
One Trump +8 seat that voted for Clinton based in Robeson.
One Cabarrus seat that had a very strong D trend in 2020
3 swing seats in Mecklenburg and Wake all of which have trended very D except the northern wake one which is partially blunted by rural Granville.

Overall 22 Biden seats and 28 Trump seats which seems relatively reasonable and a lot of Clinton -Trump / Trump- Biden seats which shows the map is quite responsive.

Ye I think the Court is kind of overplaying it's hand a bit when it comes to the state legislative maps, though I think what the GOP did with the NE really gave the impression they drew the entire map with bad faith.

It important to remember the court isn't an expert on redistricting, so a lot of their opinion will be based on visual observations and stuff.

Makes me think the court will implement a D-leaning map which may give Dems a narrow path but still a path to control one of the chambers in 2022.

25 Biden seats + 1 Clinton-Trump Exurban Raleigh/Black belt seat and 1 Clinton Trump Robeson county seat.

61 biden seats + D friendly as possible Robeson seat. (Make All Wake/Meck/Buncombe seats Safe D which is a total of 29.)'

This is basically a Texas style gerrymander more or less. NC Dem geography isn't really that bad legislatively overall. As I showed a fair senate map is probably 22 Biden seats but getting to that half way mark does seem a bit hard. They could just overturn the county provision and institute their own gerrymander from there I guess which would be the smart thing to do if they were going down this route anyway.

Wow nice job. Even if the court is partisan I don’t think they’d go that far; “worst case” would prolly be a Marcy Kaptur 2.0 situation which would actually prolly work out better in NC given the state is closer, or an “accidental” unpacking of Dem maps.

I think unfortunately for Dems, 2022 is prolly the wrong year even with the right maps, and at least one of 2024 or 2026 will prolly be the right year with the wrong maps

[lfromnj]

It would be funny if somehow Democrats actually end up winning at least one if not both chambers of the GA assembly in 2022 under the new Court map. This is extremely unlikely, though certainly not impossible.

Democrats are extremely lucky though that the County Splitting rules for districts are in place because it curbs GOP gerrymandering at least a bit.

The bad news for Dems in NC is their self-packing problem will probably get worse. Yes, some 50-50 suburbs are likely to get bluer, but the fact is most rural D areas are depopulating and getting redder by the day.

My guess is Dems will control NC legislature when/if the blue bubbles of the cities actually become close to a majority of the population

If you kept the GOP map in the senate but fixed the NE district here are the swing districts.

1 Exurban/Black mix that is Clinton Trump. Trended R for 2020.
One NE black seat that is Biden +4 and trending R
One Trump +8 seat that voted for Clinton based in Robeson.
One Cabarrus seat that had a very strong D trend in 2020
3 swing seats in Mecklenburg and Wake all of which have trended very D except the northern wake one which is partially blunted by rural Granville.

Overall 22 Biden seats and 28 Trump seats which seems relatively reasonable and a lot of Clinton -Trump / Trump- Biden seats which shows the map is quite responsive.

Ye I think the Court is kind of overplaying it's hand a bit when it comes to the state legislative maps, though I think what the GOP did with the NE really gave the impression they drew the entire map with bad faith.

It important to remember the court isn't an expert on redistricting, so a lot of their opinion will be based on visual observations and stuff.

Makes me think the court will implement a D-leaning map which may give Dems a narrow path but still a path to control one of the chambers in 2022.

25 Biden seats + 1 Clinton-Trump Exurban Raleigh/Black belt seat and 1 Clinton Trump Robeson county seat.

61 biden seats + D friendly as possible Robeson seat. (Make All Wake/Meck/Buncombe seats Safe D which is a total of 29.)'

This is basically a Texas style gerrymander more or less. NC Dem geography isn't really that bad legislatively overall. As I showed a fair senate map is probably 22 Biden seats but getting to that half way mark does seem a bit hard. They could just overturn the county provision and institute their own gerrymander from there I guess which would be the smart thing to do if they were going down this route anyway.

Wow nice job. Even if the court is partisan I don’t think they’d go that far; “worst case” would prolly be a Marcy Kaptur 2.0 situation which would actually prolly work out better in NC given the state is closer, or an “accidental” unpacking of Dem maps.

I think unfortunately for Dems, 2022 is prolly the wrong year even with the right maps, and at least one of 2024 or 2026 will prolly be the right year with the wrong maps

https://sites.duke.edu/quantifyinggerrymandering/files/2021/08/countyClusters2020.pdf

Yeah here are the clusters. You have options at times. Basically assuming you don't split the black district in the NE.



Dark red are Safe GOP no matter what districts. Dark Blue are Safe D districts.  Obviously Democrats will have other Safe D seats .  Anyway the court has decided competitive GOP seats in Meck/Wake are R gerrymanders. Now it is true these are generally drawn in an R favorable fashion but that's because the communities are R favorable such as SE Mecklenburg naturally lending itself to a relatively swingy district. In the end these would be 3 possible seats the GOP could win but all the seats are definitely seats that Democrats need in a majority as there is no way to draw a seat Cooper loses in these counties.

After that you have a few set swing seats that can't really be touched unless you want to create VRA districts or in the NE case just switch to the gerrymandered cluster. 3 in the NE. 1 of them very narrow Clinton-Trump and another in the Far NE near the coastal area that is Biden +4. Lastly a somewhat swing seat based in Wayne/Wilson but Cooper still lost it.

Then there is the Robeson County swing seat, which is a beauty as it captures the entire larger Lumbee community. Clinton +3 to Trump +8. Very Parochial still . Finally the last set swing seat is the Cabarrus swing seat which is still Trump +7 but is worth mentioning for the future .

So the Durham-Chapelhill + safe black seat is only 5 seats. However Mecklenburg and Wake is a possiblity of 11 seats if Democrats win them all so we have 16 now.

Where the majority/real gerrymandering debate begins is the medium sized clusters of 2-3 districts. Set clusters can't be gerrymandered and Wake/Meck can have swing seats for the GOP but nothing more. The previous set of seats mentioned have 3 Cooper seats so we are at 19 seats Cooper seats so far.

These Clusters are Asheville which would be 2 seats(2 choices availible for this cluster), Forsyth +Stokes which is Biden +6, Guilford+Rockingham which is 3 seats and Biden +16, Moore+ Cumberland which is a decent bit ugly and Biden +4 and lastly New Hanover+ Brunswick+ Columbus which is Trump +10.

Basically the issue is one of these sets other than the Wilmington set probably has to involve splitting the core cities in these districts in a substantial manner. If you drew all the core cities together or atleast reasonably together you would end up with only 24 Cooper seats. It is definitely ironic to see the arguments that splitting the triad in 3 congressionally and attaching them to super R rurals is a gerrymander but then somehow we need to attach Rockingham county to the African American part of Greensboro instead of exurban Guilford for a fair map in the senate map.