North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[BoiseBoy]

The NC GOP has released a proposal of redistricting criteria for the upcoming session:

• Equal Population - Acceptable range for a district's population is within +/- 5% of the ideal population
• Contiguity - Districts must be contiguous, and water contiguity is sufficient
• Counties, Groupings, and Traversals - legislative districts should be drawn within county groupings, and within these groupings, county lines should not be traversed except in a few cases. The congressional plan must only divide counties for the purposes of population equalization and consideration of double bunking. If a county is of sufficient population to contain a CD within its boundaries, a district must be made entirely within that county.
  
• Racial data - Data identifying race will not be used as a factor when drawing districts
• VTDs - voting districts should only be split when necessary
• Compactness - a reasonable effort should be made to maintain compact districts, using as a guide the minimum Reock and Polsby-Popper scores
  
• Municipal boundaries - municipal boundaries may be considered when drawing districts
• Election data - Election results data and partisan considerations shall not be used in the drawing of districts
• Incumbent member residence - Member residence may be considered when drawing districts
• Communities of Interest - As long as a district plan complies with the other criteria, COIs may be considered in drawing districts

https://ncleg.gov/documentsites/committees/Senate2021-154/2021/08-09-2021/2021%20Joint%20Redistricting%20Committee%20Plan%20Proposed%20Criteria.pdf

[BoiseBoy]

Someone sent this map in a Discord I'm in, saying it's a leak of the draft NC map for 2022. I have no idea if it's legitimate or not, as they haven't provided a source.

[BoiseBoy]

Oh my god, that's hideous. How'd that 13th vote in 2020?

Based on my sloppy rendition I just whipped up in DRA, it would be about R+9 to R+11. Definitely not a safe seat by 2020 numbers.

[BoiseBoy]

Here are the dates and times for public hearings on the redistricting process in North Carolina.

https://twitter.com/mtdukes/status/1433177017038655498?s=21

[BoiseBoy]

Here's another ghastly map that was worked on earlier today.

[BoiseBoy]

Sen. Hise is altering the map to try and zero out the numbers:

https://twitter.com/lekhashupeck/status/1446145836384198659?s=20

[BoiseBoy]

Six maps proposed by legislative members have been posted on the NCLEG website:

https://www.ncleg.gov/Committees/CommitteeInfo/SenateStanding/154#2021\Member%20Submitted%20Maps

[BoiseBoy]

Another new map (CST-8) has been posted:

[BoiseBoy]

Legislature plans to vote on maps next week.

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/BenClarkNC/status/1453380429659127814?s=20

https://twitter.com/BenClarkNC/status/1453380425729073158?s=20

[BoiseBoy]

Another potential NC map. This one is labelled CST-13.



There are 10 R seats to 4 D seats.

[BoiseBoy]

The two maps still being considered are CST-13 and CBA-2. Both maps could be 10-4 or 9-5 in their partisan balance most likely. Butterfield would be in serious trouble in either map.

[BoiseBoy]

Sigh. Hoping it gets challenged in court.

[BoiseBoy]

dra link plz

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1e8d1758-f26e-407a-bebd-cf74e01a58b9

[BoiseBoy]

Did anyone seriously think these maps had a chance of being overturned? They're bad maps, but the courts are not as smart or prudent as we would like to think.

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/JBremerDevt/status/1467210490329944064
Seems that these maps are likely final for 2022 at least. Ugh

There was no way these maps were being overturned. Optimism often blinds people from realism.

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/MurphinNC/status/1467895850533851145
Looks like I spoke too soon! Filing halted. Fair maps might be back on the menu!

Serves the GOP right after the farce in Wisconsin. Least change, please.

If the NC maps really do get overturned, I'll be shocked, but pleased.

[BoiseBoy]

North Carolina Supreme Court has agreed to delay the primaries.

https://twitter.com/SFalmlen/status/1468697706994544640?s=20

Wonderful news! This day has been win after win in terms of redistricting.

What else am I missing other than Virginia?

Ohio's court is seemingly unhappy with the maps there. Fair chance those are dedrawn.

[BoiseBoy]

What are the odds this map gets overturned by the court? What would happen next?

[BoiseBoy]

So any chance the congressional map gets overturned or is at least ordered to change 1-2 districts?

[BoiseBoy]

Trial ended today. Verdict is expected by Tuesday January 11.

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/DemocracyDocket/status/1481016864138534913

Now it goes to the state supreme court, likely to be overturned there?

[BoiseBoy]

Sad how by their way of questioning, Newby, Morgan, Earls, and Erwin have all already made up their mind

Because a lot of judiciaries have been politicized and poisoned with partisanship beyond repair.

[BoiseBoy]

From what I read, the court mandated proportionality for all maps. I would guess we get an 8-6 out of this.

[BoiseBoy]

Where would a sixth Dem district even come from? I count one seat in Charlotte, one in Raleigh, one in Durham/Chapel Hill, one in Greensboro/Winston-Salem and one in the Northeast black belt (that's trending R).

This is a map I drew derived from the tabled CST-10 plan. It is a 7-7 map (both 2016 and 2020) with two tossup seats along the south border. It could be 8-6 map for either party depending on the environment.



https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::3a5ebc6f-e9e4-4ac3-946e-e65e18c666ba