North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[Nyvin]

Not a fan of the Charlotte wrap-around district,  also it looks like you lowered the AA percentage in the northeast district quite heavily.

[Nyvin]

Here's a least change map I made (at least somewhat least change)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7176a848-2859-4692-acfb-0e10b96ec7af

[Nyvin]

Johnston really should not be in a district with Wilmington.

Everything there is Raleigh centric.

Johnston is in a district with Wilmington in the current map.

[Nyvin]

Holding (NC-2) and Walker (NC-6) are both probably shivering over this redistricting, considering their seats are easily the most vulnerable to flipping to the Democrats as a result.

[Nyvin]

Here's another alternative that I put together:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7c5770ec-23d0-4b88-86b7-9848e2865e16

That actually looks great!   I like it better than my map, lol.     I'd love it if the courts put this map in place.

[Nyvin]

Here's a mostly clean NC map.

You realize the purpose of the court order is to "undo" the current partisan gerrymander...correct?

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/mel_bough/status/1191806197294350336

Don't like the Greensboro/Winston-Salem and Fayetteville regions one bit. On the other hand, that 11th seems like it was drawn by a Democrat looking for a potential pickup.

Not terrible, but definitely room for improvement.   NC-6 has a lot of county splits.   NC-8 is definitely a swing district with maybe a small D lean.  

I'm pretty sure the second safe D seat in the triangle area is inevitable.  

This is still only a 8R-4D-1s map though,  not ideal.

Looks like the NCGOP is trying to get the committee to use this as the base map for when they start the drawing.   NC Dems seem to want to start from scratch.

[Nyvin]

Not joking, their current map so far looks a lot like mine (excluding a few areas) -



NC-9 (teal district) losing Union County is a HUGE win if that makes it through.

[Nyvin]

According to Stephan Wolfe, the GOP did something similar to that NC state senator from last time and whispered for half an hour while they carved up that neat sandhill seat you posted Nyvin.

I guess it was the map the NC Dems produced,  it was hard to get that from the video.

this works well too i think. 7R-6D breakdown with NC-11 being the tipping point. CDs 2, 6 and 8 are very likely pickups

this is another map that better captures the research triangle and keeps most of johnston with raleigh, but also makes the 8th weirdish in shape

I don't think the political will is there to unite Forsyth and Guilford, even on the Dem side really.   They probably want to keep the two metros separate.   The two counties really have their own respective political parties and power groups.   I know a similar situation plays out between Manchester and Nashua in New Hampshire.

The main thing is they want to avoid a tug of war during primaries.

[Nyvin]

This is really not a bad map overall.

The southeast is a disaster zone in that map.  Those two county-chain districts are even worse than what the current map does.   Cabarrus with Johnston?  Brunswick with Union?!? 

It would also be a hard cap of 8R-5D,  with no real swing districts, Hillary won that Guilford district by like 9-10% if I have the math right.

[Nyvin]

NC senate Dems map. They keep the Stupid 7th, the 6th and the 4th could probably do with an internal reshuffle, Greensboro/W-S of course, and I personally would have cut Wayne to boost NC01's AAVAP.

Me and NC Dems are on the same page,  looks very similar to mine again.

[Nyvin]

Going by the Republican Map and the Democrat Map,  it's pretty clear we'll end up with something in the 8R-5D or 7R-5D-1s range.   

Sandhills area (Current NC-8 and NC-9 area) is the issue of contention mostly, along with maybe small issues with NC-1 going into the triangle.

[Nyvin]

It seems like everyone wants to keep Greensboro and Winston-Salem separate for whatever reason, so why not do the concise 3 county Guilford-Alamance-Rockingham district?

That would be great on it's own, but then what do you do with Caswell and Person?

I agree I really like that district though.  Alamance fits with Guilford way better than Randolph does.

The interest in the parties (both Republican and Democrat) isn't there to combine Forsyth and Guilford.   They don't want the Metros to compete against each other for the district.

[Nyvin]

First time I've seen it on the live feed,  apparently it is being considered!

[Nyvin]

This is a map on there too, rofl



Maybe someone there is reading this forum...

[Nyvin]

This is more than likely what we will end up with.

Based on what?

[Nyvin]

What is going to be interesting to see is which republican congress members they try to save, and which one they put in a Democratic district. Also, if that congress person ends up jumping into the Governor race or Senate Race.

With the current map that they saved, Walker, Holding and Rouzer are all likely to be voted out, with Rouzer having the best chance at winning re-election. I could see him running again. But with Walker and Holding, I don't think they will. Walker could jump to another race.

Is there any likely map where Holding isn't doomed?

Considering last time the maps were redrawn he just primaried Ellmers (and won...) and took her district,  I think he'll be fine.   My guess is he runs in whatever district ends up with Johnston.


Holding is a Trump Loyalist so he'll most likely win any GOP primary.

Ironically he also lives in Raleigh (in the current 4th district...).

[Nyvin]

Y’all think we will get a final map this week?

I think I remember reading they're planning for release on Thursday.

[Nyvin]

Btw anyone notice the GOP wants a winnable Nc 1? The one in that map is clinton +6.5. Definitely winnable for the GOP in a wave.

I doubt it,  almost all the voters are AA.   That's going to be a rock solid floor for Democrats.

[Nyvin]

Keeping Union/SE Mecklenburg in with the Sandhills area is a blatant partisan gerrymander and an effort to keep Bishop's home in the seat.   There's really no other defense for it.

The two areas have absolutely nothing in common.

[Nyvin]

That really just leaves Ohio and Texas as the last two surviving "major" R Gerrymanders left in the country.   (Not saying the NC Map is perfect now or anything)

We'll see how well the Texas one holds up next year though.

[Nyvin]

That really just leaves Ohio and Texas as the last two surviving "major" R Gerrymanders left in the country.   (Not saying the NC Map is perfect now or anything)

We'll see how well the Texas one holds up next year though.

Georgia too.

And Michigan

Michigan and Georgia aren't as bad anymore.   At least there's a reasonable chance of getting a somewhat fair delegation in those states.   

[Nyvin]

NC Court rejects the legislature's map.

https://twitter.com/pnrodenbush/status/1197286403677315072

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1201564346356244482

Looks like the 8R-5D map will be used.   Plaintiffs can still appeal to the state supreme court though.

[Nyvin]

The plaintiffs won't appeal to the State Supreme Court, the map is final.

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1201684489086394368