North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yeah the big picture issue for NC Dems in the legislature is that a lot of their support is locked up in districts which are like 55-45 R, like much of the state east of Raleigh. Those places aren't winnable for the NC Democrats as presently constituted, especially since they've failed to win outright Biden-voting seats in this part of the state.

I think Dems best long term hope is that the urban parts of the state continue to grow at fast rates, cause if you could get those seats close to a majority, it'd be really hard for Republicans to win the legistlature unless they start making big time comebacks. Within Counties like Wake and Mecklenburg, Democrats have quite an effective vote distribution.

Yes, I wouldn’t be surprised if that lone Mecklenburg Trump seat is won by Biden next year. Or if one of the Wake ones flip.

Think Biden flips the Mecklenburg seat and both the Wake seats. All swung towards Beasley in 2022 which is pretty insane, considering Rs had favorable turnout statewide and these types of seats tend to have some downballot lag.

[Storr]

Updated State House map (very few changes).

Broke 70-50 for Trump in 2020. Rmbr, in NC 72 seats are needed for a supermajority.

There are a handful of narrow Biden seats in the "black belt" that could def be vulnerable, especially in cycles with low black turnout and/or black voters shifting right. Dems already lost the current equivalents to some of these districts in 2022.

There are a few competative suburban seats as well. Notably, Beasley in 2022 outran Biden 2020 in both of the competative Mecklenburg and both of the competative Wake County House districts. She also pretty notably outran Biden in the Chatham County based district.

This map makes it very hard for Democrats to get a majority though. To do so, they'd either have to make back huge gains in eastern rural NC which seems unlikely at this point, or have suburban shifts go on overdrive flipping some Trump + 20ish seats around greater Charlotte, Raliegh, Greensboro, ect.

Honestly Dems are having an increasingly poor vote distribution in NC. If you look at where Dems have made some of the biggest gains over the past decade in NC, it's been mostly in Safe Blue areas in Raleigh, Durham, and Charlotte. Sure, they've flipped a few suburban seats, but a pretty underwhelmingly number considering the magnitude of their gains in these metro areas.

There's an interesting discussion to be had about how Democratic vote distribution compares between North Carolina and Georgia. Both are 50/50 southern states, but outlook for the party is considered much more favorable in the latter than the former. You could argue it's simply due to Georgia's higher minority population percentage.

I'd argue a good bit of the difference is due to how NC has 2.5 major urban centers, while Georgia has a single humongous one in Atlanta. It spreads Democratic voters along the route of the North Carolina Railroad (Interstate 85) instead of just centered around one huge city, like in Georgia. That difference makes it easier for Republicans to gerrymander without worrying about #trends (as much) in North Carolina, where in Georgia it is always necessary.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Idk, I think Robinson will crash and burn and tank the supermajority in the house.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Congressional map is now law with a few minor tweaks.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here's the final State Senate map Rs passed. It breaks 31 Trump - 19 Biden.

Of the 19 seats only 3 are remotely competitive. 13 and 42 are both desperate attempts by Rs to cling on to suburban seats within Wake and Mecklenburg Counties respectively. Both districts have been shifting pretty hard left and should prolly be Dem long term. District 5 is Biden + 13 but only Beasley + 7 in 2022 and has generally been drifting right but for the most part think it should be ok for Dems.

There are several competative R seats. Both 11 and 24 are Clinton-Trump seats. Only way I can see Dems clinging onto 11 long term is if Franklin County starts seeing some liberal spillover from Wake. 24 really comes down to who has a candidate that can appeal to the Lumbee tribe. 18 takes in Northern Wake, is currently represented by a Dem overperformer, and is generally shifting left so Dems prolly hold it long term; was only Budd + 1 in 2022. Dems may also have a shot at SD-07 if they continue their gains in Wilmington and a longshot in the Trump + 10 Carrabus based seat. This basically locks Dems out of a majority for the decade, and difficult to break the R supermajority.

The crazy crack of black voters with SD-01 and SD-02 seems blantantly illegal, especially since as another poster pointed out there is an easy County cluster to avoid this split. I don't understand why Rs didn't leave the northeast config on the map they used in 2022 cause that seat was right shifting, only Biden + 4 in 2022, and they won it in 2022 and would have a good shot at holding it long term. Because they were greedy, they risk the map Nyvin posted a few pages back which would make SD-02 a Biden +13 seat and flip SD-11 into a Biden seat.

[politicallefty]

There's an interesting discussion to be had about how Democratic vote distribution compares between North Carolina and Georgia. Both are 50/50 southern states, but outlook for the party is considered much more favorable in the latter than the former. You could argue it's simply due to Georgia's higher minority population percentage.

I'd argue a good bit of the difference is due to how NC has 2.5 major urban centers, while Georgia has a single humongous one in Atlanta. It spreads Democratic voters along the route of the North Carolina Railroad (Interstate 85) instead of just centered around one huge city, like in Georgia. That difference makes it easier for Republicans to gerrymander without worrying about #trends (as much) in North Carolina, where in Georgia it is always necessary.

I don't think the geography of NC is particularly bad for Democrats. Neither party really has a strong geographic advantage. The distribution of the electorate just allows for greater manipulation if the other side can take total control. A fair map of NC yields a roughly even balance in the overall results. In some ways, I think it's similar to Ohio before the Trump realignment (in that a fair map would've yielded a split or even D-Majority Congressional delegation). The metro areas are more split up and there are many micropolitan areas that can offset those areas if drawn a certain way. One of the problems for Democrats in NC is that their strong performance in the Charlotte area is pretty much entirely confined to Mecklenburg County (Cabarrus does appear to be nearing swing status, but not quite yet).

At first, I was going to say it was similar to Texas, but I don't think that's accurate. Texas geography is actually good for Democrats. It's just that the gerrymanders are doing a massive amount of work. I remember playing around with DRA years ago and it wasn't hard to get Democrats to a nearly 50% share of the Congressional delegation (I think those where Obama-McCain numbers). I think it's only become worse for Republicans though. The major difference though is that Texas is far more urban/suburban than NC. A Democratic gerrymander of Texas would probably surprise most in what could be accomplished.

[patzer]

At first, I was going to say it was similar to Texas, but I don't think that's accurate. Texas geography is actually good for Democrats. It's just that the gerrymanders are doing a massive amount of work. I remember playing around with DRA years ago and it wasn't hard to get Democrats to a nearly 50% share of the Congressional delegation (I think those where Obama-McCain numbers). I think it's only become worse for Republicans though. The major difference though is that Texas is far more urban/suburban than NC. A Democratic gerrymander of Texas would probably surprise most in what could be accomplished.

Most natural/compact Texas maps result in a Dem majority whether at the congressional level or state house/senate level. It doesn't even need to be an intentional gerrymander- it's basically a reverse Wisconsin in terms of how bad the geography is.

[Sol]

Here's the final State Senate map Rs passed. It breaks 31 Trump - 19 Biden.

Of the 19 seats only 3 are remotely competitive. 13 and 42 are both desperate attempts by Rs to cling on to suburban seats within Wake and Mecklenburg Counties respectively. Both districts have been shifting pretty hard left and should prolly be Dem long term. District 5 is Biden + 13 but only Beasley + 7 in 2022 and has generally been drifting right but for the most part think it should be ok for Dems.

There are several competative R seats. Both 11 and 24 are Clinton-Trump seats. Only way I can see Dems clinging onto 11 long term is if Franklin County starts seeing some liberal spillover from Wake. 24 really comes down to who has a candidate that can appeal to the Lumbee tribe. 18 takes in Northern Wake, is currently represented by a Dem overperformer, and is generally shifting left so Dems prolly hold it long term; was only Budd + 1 in 2022. Dems may also have a shot at SD-07 if they continue their gains in Wilmington and a longshot in the Trump + 10 Carrabus based seat. This basically locks Dems out of a majority for the decade, and difficult to break the R supermajority.

District 5 is notable in that it's the only place in Eastern NC outside of the coasts to have a non-negligible white liberal population as well.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of leftward movement in Franklin County, though I may be being optimistic; there's been a lot of suburban growth along US-1 in Northern Wake County, which most recently flipped the area around Wake Forest. Youngsville is the next logical zone to see growth in this way. The adjacent part of Northern Wake may also get commuter rail in the medium term thanks to the S-line project, which is basically the only viable rail project happening in the Triangle these days, though that probably doesn't happen this decade.

18 is interesting; Mary Wills Bode will definitely have an uphill climb, but she's also fairly good recruit for Democrats in that her ~vibes~ are well to the right of her actual views (which to my understanding are actually even well to the left of her voting record), in a way which is a good fit for exurban Wake.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here's the final State Senate map Rs passed. It breaks 31 Trump - 19 Biden.

Of the 19 seats only 3 are remotely competitive. 13 and 42 are both desperate attempts by Rs to cling on to suburban seats within Wake and Mecklenburg Counties respectively. Both districts have been shifting pretty hard left and should prolly be Dem long term. District 5 is Biden + 13 but only Beasley + 7 in 2022 and has generally been drifting right but for the most part think it should be ok for Dems.

There are several competative R seats. Both 11 and 24 are Clinton-Trump seats. Only way I can see Dems clinging onto 11 long term is if Franklin County starts seeing some liberal spillover from Wake. 24 really comes down to who has a candidate that can appeal to the Lumbee tribe. 18 takes in Northern Wake, is currently represented by a Dem overperformer, and is generally shifting left so Dems prolly hold it long term; was only Budd + 1 in 2022. Dems may also have a shot at SD-07 if they continue their gains in Wilmington and a longshot in the Trump + 10 Carrabus based seat. This basically locks Dems out of a majority for the decade, and difficult to break the R supermajority.

District 5 is notable in that it's the only place in Eastern NC outside of the coasts to have a non-negligible white liberal population as well.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of leftward movement in Franklin County, though I may be being optimistic; there's been a lot of suburban growth along US-1 in Northern Wake County, which most recently flipped the area around Wake Forest. Youngsville is the next logical zone to see growth in this way. The adjacent part of Northern Wake may also get commuter rail in the medium term thanks to the S-line project, which is basically the only viable rail project happening in the Triangle these days, though that probably doesn't happen this decade.

18 is interesting; Mary Wills Bode will definitely have an uphill climb, but she's also fairly good recruit for Democrats in that her ~vibes~ are well to the right of her actual views (which to my understanding are actually even well to the left of her voting record), in a way which is a good fit for exurban Wake.

A bit off topic but I feel like in general over the past few cycles, Democrats have done a better job at finding candidates for various swing seats who present as down to earth and moderate in rhetoric, even if they're truly more progressive and an academic or "elite". I think especially with female candidates, Dems have been quite good at running "I'm a normal mom" type candidates.

Long term I think Dems hold SD-18; Biden only lost it by 2, Beasley by 1; I think he narrowly carries it in 2024 because it's right at the part of Wake County that's seeing pretty rapid liberal spillover.

[Tekken_Guy]

Here's the final State Senate map Rs passed. It breaks 31 Trump - 19 Biden.

Of the 19 seats only 3 are remotely competitive. 13 and 42 are both desperate attempts by Rs to cling on to suburban seats within Wake and Mecklenburg Counties respectively. Both districts have been shifting pretty hard left and should prolly be Dem long term. District 5 is Biden + 13 but only Beasley + 7 in 2022 and has generally been drifting right but for the most part think it should be ok for Dems.

There are several competative R seats. Both 11 and 24 are Clinton-Trump seats. Only way I can see Dems clinging onto 11 long term is if Franklin County starts seeing some liberal spillover from Wake. 24 really comes down to who has a candidate that can appeal to the Lumbee tribe. 18 takes in Northern Wake, is currently represented by a Dem overperformer, and is generally shifting left so Dems prolly hold it long term; was only Budd + 1 in 2022. Dems may also have a shot at SD-07 if they continue their gains in Wilmington and a longshot in the Trump + 10 Carrabus based seat. This basically locks Dems out of a majority for the decade, and difficult to break the R supermajority.

District 5 is notable in that it's the only place in Eastern NC outside of the coasts to have a non-negligible white liberal population as well.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of leftward movement in Franklin County, though I may be being optimistic; there's been a lot of suburban growth along US-1 in Northern Wake County, which most recently flipped the area around Wake Forest. Youngsville is the next logical zone to see growth in this way. The adjacent part of Northern Wake may also get commuter rail in the medium term thanks to the S-line project, which is basically the only viable rail project happening in the Triangle these days, though that probably doesn't happen this decade.

18 is interesting; Mary Wills Bode will definitely have an uphill climb, but she's also fairly good recruit for Democrats in that her ~vibes~ are well to the right of her actual views (which to my understanding are actually even well to the left of her voting record), in a way which is a good fit for exurban Wake.

A bit off topic but I feel like in general over the past few cycles, Democrats have done a better job at finding candidates for various swing seats who present as down to earth and moderate in rhetoric, even if they're truly more progressive and an academic or "elite". I think especially with female candidates, Dems have been quite good at running "I'm a normal mom" type candidates.

Long term I think Dems hold SD-18; Biden only lost it by 2, Beasley by 1; I think he narrowly carries it in 2024 because it's right at the part of Wake County that's seeing pretty rapid liberal spillover.

When do you think SD-07 falls?

[Sol]

I'm not super optimistic that SD-07 will fall. It may flip to Democrats in a good year, as it did in 2018, but it's the sort of place where recent Dem gains have been due to erosion with higher-income white voters as opposed to demographic shifts. It seems like it has a lot of voters who would be Republican most of the time but flipped over in a 2020 one-off.

New Hanover County is the kind of place which seems like it should be much more Democratic than it is to the outside observer; despite being arguably the most urbanized of the group it's easily the most right wing major metro county in the state.

Lee is also a fairly strong and influential incumbent who generally tries to strike a moderate image, despite being in lockstep with the party; sort of the Brian Fitzpatrick of the State Senate. Actually this description applies to the New Hanover House delegation too.

[Sol]

New Hanover County is the kind of place which seems like it should be much more Democratic than it is to the outside observer; despite being arguably the most urbanized of the group it's easily the most right wing major metro county in the state.

This actually kind of gets to the heart of the matter of NC geography. There's been a lot of discourse about the "countrypolitan" counties of North Carolina and their importance to the future prospects of the NC Democratic party, but imo a lot of that comes from a category misunderstanding about them.

Since North Carolina only really has mid-sized cities, the lens of comparison for them is often larger cities, but that often confuses the issue, by making outer suburban and exurban counties seem comparable to inner suburban counties elsewhere. For example, people will say that Democrats should try to build up strength in Union County (which they should!), with the goal of flipping it. But this ignores the fact that very few places like Union County vote Democratic, basically none in the South. Union County is outer suburbia, going on exurbia; the relevant comparison is Cherokee or Coweta in Atlanta.

The Research Triangle is even more striking; Democrats in the past few years have been doing extremely well in far out areas of Wake County, winning precincts in places like Holly Springs or Fuquay-Varina; basically the equivalent of Democrats winning Forsyth County in Georgia in terms of urban structure. Biden even got decent numbers in Clayton in Johnston County.

It's also important to spell out: these communities have a lot of ideological right-wingers! It was very noticeable that most of the earliest CRT/anti-LGBT educational panic organizing was in places with these sorts of profiles: New Hanover County, Union County, Moore County (which is not part of a major MSA but is similar demographically).

Democrats should obviously try to improve their margins in places like these, and they may be buoyed up by growth and demographic change in certain cases--I'm thinking of Franklin, Alamance, Cabarrus, and NW Johnston in particular.

But I do think that psephologists place too much of an emphasis on winning over voters in in Republican suburban and exurban areas, at the expense of stopping the bleeding in rural Eastern NC, which is ultimately the big problem for Democrats in the state. The NC Democrats are already punching well above their weight in large metro areas!

[Tekken_Guy]

New Hanover County is the kind of place which seems like it should be much more Democratic than it is to the outside observer; despite being arguably the most urbanized of the group it's easily the most right wing major metro county in the state.

This actually kind of gets to the heart of the matter of NC geography. There's been a lot of discourse about the "countrypolitan" counties of North Carolina and their importance to the future prospects of the NC Democratic party, but imo a lot of that comes from a category misunderstanding about them.

Since North Carolina only really has mid-sized cities, the lens of comparison for them is often larger cities, but that often confuses the issue, by making outer suburban and exurban counties seem comparable to inner suburban counties elsewhere. For example, people will say that Democrats should try to build up strength in Union County (which they should!), with the goal of flipping it. But this ignores the fact that very few places like Union County vote Democratic, basically none in the South. Union County is outer suburbia, going on exurbia; the relevant comparison is Cherokee or Coweta in Atlanta.

The Research Triangle is even more striking; Democrats in the past few years have been doing extremely well in far out areas of Wake County, winning precincts in places like Holly Springs or Fuquay-Varina; basically the equivalent of Democrats winning Forsyth County in Georgia in terms of urban structure. Biden even got decent numbers in Clayton in Johnston County.

It's also important to spell out: these communities have a lot of ideological right-wingers! It was very noticeable that most of the earliest CRT/anti-LGBT educational panic organizing was in places with these sorts of profiles: New Hanover County, Union County, Moore County (which is not part of a major MSA but is similar demographically).

Democrats should obviously try to improve their margins in places like these, and they may be buoyed up by growth and demographic change in certain cases--I'm thinking of Franklin, Alamance, Cabarrus, and NW Johnston in particular.

But I do think that psephologists place too much of an emphasis on winning over voters in in Republican suburban and exurban areas, at the expense of stopping the bleeding in rural Eastern NC, which is ultimately the big problem for Democrats in the state. The NC Democrats are already punching well above their weight in large metro areas!

North Carolina doesn’t really have a lot of people in the eastern part of the state, so they can easily offset that with urban and suburban growth.

[Frodo]

Since we are on the topic of eastern North Carolina:

‘Powerful’ Eastern NC district gets a redder tint, after a century of electing Democrats
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On a separate note, I have often heard that the main reason Democrats are having more difficulty trying to win North Carolina as opposed to Georgia is because Republicans haven't yet 'maxed out' the rural vote.  Are we mainly talking about the rural vote in eastern North Carolina, or does that apply to everywhere else in the state that can be regarded as rural?

[Sol]

North Carolina doesn’t really have a lot of people in the eastern part of the state, so they can easily offset that with urban and suburban growth.

I mean, this is just not true. On a fair map, there'd be around 3 districts in Eastern NC; if you include a district based in the Sandhills, which have similar dynamics, you'd get 4. That's like 20-30% of the state's population! Eastern NC may lack large metro centers, with the most sizable being Fayetteville and Wilmington, but the region has a bunch of small cities that add up--Rocky Mount, Goldsboro, Wilson, Greenville, Elizabeth City, etc. etc.
 
The kinds of places which I was discussing are a much smaller fraction of the state.

[Tekken_Guy]

North Carolina doesn’t really have a lot of people in the eastern part of the state, so they can easily offset that with urban and suburban growth.

I mean, this is just not true. On a fair map, there'd be around 3 districts in Eastern NC; if you include a district based in the Sandhills, which have similar dynamics, you'd get 4. That's like 20-30% of the state's population! Eastern NC may lack large metro centers, with the most sizable being Fayetteville and Wilmington, but the region has a bunch of small cities that add up--Rocky Mount, Goldsboro, Wilson, Greenville, Elizabeth City, etc. etc.
 
The kinds of places which I was discussing are a much smaller fraction of the state.

And the left trending parts of the state are way larger and will overpower the gains made in the metros.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Fair NC State House map using existing County Clusters. Broke 66 Trump - 54 Biden on 2020 Pres.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1740092880386130407?t=x0234HSkuyXC3UBux...

So there are three(?) separate lawsuits involving a variety of complaints against varying collections of NCs maps. However,  there also appears to be an attempt to get a preliminary injection going, something I was wondering if would happen since things are going to be a bit muddy until the 8ths private right of action ruling is reversed,probably by the Supreme Court.


A PI hearing is the only way maps different from the ones we have already seen are used in 2024.