North Carolina 2020 Redistricting (user search)
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Author Topic: North Carolina 2020 Redistricting  (Read 84677 times)
Vern
vern1988
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,165
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.30, S: -0.70

P P P

« on: October 31, 2019, 09:00:18 PM »
« edited: December 12, 2019, 11:04:03 PM by Vern »



CD-1(Green): PVI R+11.58
CD-2(Dark Purple): PVI R+9.76
CD-3(Red): PVI D+3.03
CD-4(Yellow): PVI R+20.9
CD-5(Light Greenish): PVI R+5.43
CD-6(Gray): PVI R+23.04
CD-7(Light Purple): PVI D+6.75
CD-8(Teal): PVI R+.29
CD-9(Pink): PVI R+14.26
CD-10(Lime Green): PVI R+7.54
CD-11(Light Blue): PVI D+10.56
CD-12(Tan): PVI D+9.48
CD-13(Goldish): PVI D+17.88
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Vern
vern1988
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,165
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.30, S: -0.70

P P P

« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2019, 08:30:38 PM »

What you guys think?
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Vern
vern1988
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,165
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.30, S: -0.70

P P P

« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2019, 09:33:57 PM »

https://davesredistricting.org/join/295cde18-80fe-418b-aac6-04a776535a4d

Here is the link to the OP map, if anyone wants to look at it in detail.
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Vern
vern1988
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,165
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.30, S: -0.70

P P P

« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2019, 09:44:51 PM »

Chatham really belongs in a Research Triangle District and not with Randolph as they are radically different places now.


I agree, That is why I tried to keep the Triad and Triangle in three districts. But I had to put some one the triangle in a third district because the population is to big for just two districts
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Vern
vern1988
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,165
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.30, S: -0.70

P P P

« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2019, 10:49:45 PM »


Don't like the Greensboro/Winston-Salem and Fayetteville regions one bit. On the other hand, that 11th seems like it was drawn by a Democrat looking for a potential pickup.

So I tried my best to get this right.


Look at the tweet map for the district numbers.

CD-1: D+5
CD-2: R+12
CD-3: R+6
CD-4: R+4
CD-5: D+9
CD-6: D+14
CD-7: R+13
CD-8: Even
CD-9: R+10
CD-10: R+21
CD-11: R+8
CD-12: R+12
CD-13: D+15
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Vern
vern1988
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,165
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.30, S: -0.70

P P P

« Reply #5 on: November 06, 2019, 12:40:45 AM »

So when should we get a new map?
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Vern
vern1988
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,165
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.30, S: -0.70

P P P

« Reply #6 on: November 06, 2019, 09:45:16 PM »



Here's where the map stands right now at the end of the day. Of course  work will still continue but...this map is somehow worse then the previous preliminary one!

- Cracked Sandhills
- Separated Greensboro/Winston-Salem
- Raleigh seat that goes beyond Wake
- Parallel central districts
- First missing Greenville (they want to protect the  incumbent)
- No Boone for the 11th
- Johnson to Wilmington was clearly an option but it was dropped to carve up the sandhill region
- Seats are renumbered going E -> W, but this 4 and 7...

According to Stephan Wolfe, the GOP did something similar to that NC state senator from last time and whispered for half an hour while they carved up that neat sandhill seat you posted Nyvin.

If this style of map ends up as the final product, I suspect we will get the courts or special masters involved. The GOP employed their traditional "support AA caucus, lessen overall dem power" when drawing the state legislative maps. This plus their appeasement of all the urban legislatures with unpacked seats meant they could get away with maps that locked in the barest of majorities. This won't happen for the congressional map. In every possible way, the map posted at the end of today discriminates against AA Dem voters.


This is really not a bad map overall.
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Vern
vern1988
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,165
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.30, S: -0.70

P P P

« Reply #7 on: November 06, 2019, 10:15:45 PM »
« Edited: November 09, 2019, 09:51:08 AM by Vern »


Screenshot of Joint Select Committee on Congressional Redistricting Video link here


Here is all four maps they drew today.
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Vern
vern1988
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,165
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.30, S: -0.70

P P P

« Reply #8 on: November 07, 2019, 08:22:58 AM »



Here's where the map stands right now at the end of the day. Of course  work will still continue but...this map is somehow worse then the previous preliminary one!

- Cracked Sandhills
- Separated Greensboro/Winston-Salem
- Raleigh seat that goes beyond Wake
- Parallel central districts
- First missing Greenville (they want to protect the  incumbent)
- No Boone for the 11th
- Johnson to Wilmington was clearly an option but it was dropped to carve up the sandhill region
- Seats are renumbered going E -> W, but this 4 and 7...

According to Stephan Wolfe, the GOP did something similar to that NC state senator from last time and whispered for half an hour while they carved up that neat sandhill seat you posted Nyvin.

If this style of map ends up as the final product, I suspect we will get the courts or special masters involved. The GOP employed their traditional "support AA caucus, lessen overall dem power" when drawing the state legislative maps. This plus their appeasement of all the urban legislatures with unpacked seats meant they could get away with maps that locked in the barest of majorities. This won't happen for the congressional map. In every possible way, the map posted at the end of today discriminates against AA Dem voters.


This is really not a bad map overall.

It is a horrendous map.


I mean there are things I don't like a lot about this map, but this is a better map than what we currently have. Plus, all of this will change before 2022.
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Vern
vern1988
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,165
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.30, S: -0.70

P P P

« Reply #9 on: November 07, 2019, 11:49:55 AM »



NC senate Dems map. They keep the Stupid 7th, the 6th and the 4th could probably do with an internal reshuffle, Greensboro/W-S of course, and I personally would have cut Wayne to boost NC01's AAVAP.

Me and NC Dems are on the same page,  looks very similar to mine again.

The only thing I really dislike here is keeping Forsyth and Guilford in separate districts, which, why? I don't love Johnston with Wilmington, or Watauga with Asheville, but those are not the end of the world.

They are thinking ahead for next year when we gain a seat.
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Vern
vern1988
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,165
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.30, S: -0.70

P P P

« Reply #10 on: November 08, 2019, 02:36:01 AM »



NC senate Dems map. They keep the Stupid 7th, the 6th and the 4th could probably do with an internal reshuffle, Greensboro/W-S of course, and I personally would have cut Wayne to boost NC01's AAVAP.

Me and NC Dems are on the same page,  looks very similar to mine again.

The only thing I really dislike here is keeping Forsyth and Guilford in separate districts, which, why? I don't love Johnston with Wilmington, or Watauga with Asheville, but those are not the end of the world.

They are thinking ahead for next year when we gain a seat.


How does that make a difference? You still won't be able to draw a Democratic or even particularly competitive seat including Forsyth County without Guilford County, as Forsyth is smaller, less Democratic and, other than Guilford, surrounded by ultra-Republican counties.

Because if you pack all the dems in one district you get a super dem district and a super Rep district. But if you split it, you will get a Moderate dem district and a Winnable other district.
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Vern
vern1988
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,165
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.30, S: -0.70

P P P

« Reply #11 on: November 08, 2019, 02:54:51 AM »



NC senate Dems map. They keep the Stupid 7th, the 6th and the 4th could probably do with an internal reshuffle, Greensboro/W-S of course, and I personally would have cut Wayne to boost NC01's AAVAP.

Me and NC Dems are on the same page,  looks very similar to mine again.

The only thing I really dislike here is keeping Forsyth and Guilford in separate districts, which, why? I don't love Johnston with Wilmington, or Watauga with Asheville, but those are not the end of the world.

They are thinking ahead for next year when we gain a seat.


How does that make a difference? You still won't be able to draw a Democratic or even particularly competitive seat including Forsyth County without Guilford County, as Forsyth is smaller, less Democratic and, other than Guilford, surrounded by ultra-Republican counties.

Because if you pack all the dems in one district you get a super dem district and a super Rep district. But if you split it, you will get a Moderate dem district and a Winnable other district.



So in after the 2020 census when NC adds a district you can make this map.



The Purple district is even and all the others are Dem districts. But if you packed the dems in like you said to, you wouldn't be able to make this map.
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Vern
vern1988
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,165
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.30, S: -0.70

P P P

« Reply #12 on: November 08, 2019, 04:39:38 AM »



NC senate Dems map. They keep the Stupid 7th, the 6th and the 4th could probably do with an internal reshuffle, Greensboro/W-S of course, and I personally would have cut Wayne to boost NC01's AAVAP.

Me and NC Dems are on the same page,  looks very similar to mine again.

The only thing I really dislike here is keeping Forsyth and Guilford in separate districts, which, why? I don't love Johnston with Wilmington, or Watauga with Asheville, but those are not the end of the world.

They are thinking ahead for next year when we gain a seat.


How does that make a difference? You still won't be able to draw a Democratic or even particularly competitive seat including Forsyth County without Guilford County, as Forsyth is smaller, less Democratic and, other than Guilford, surrounded by ultra-Republican counties.

Because if you pack all the dems in one district you get a super dem district and a super Rep district. But if you split it, you will get a Moderate dem district and a Winnable other district.



So in after the 2020 census when NC adds a district you can make this map.



The Purple district is even and all the others are Dem districts. But if you packed the dems in like you said to, you wouldn't be able to make this map.

that district makes me uncomfortable
why is that?
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Vern
vern1988
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,165
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.30, S: -0.70

P P P

« Reply #13 on: November 08, 2019, 03:37:47 PM »

I don’t understand why they are doing like 30 maps.. hha
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Vern
vern1988
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,165
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.30, S: -0.70

P P P

« Reply #14 on: November 08, 2019, 05:21:06 PM »

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1192232580008964096

Also it seems like the GOP is accepting an 8-5 map at the least?

Unless they are gonna try to save another seat to a 9-4.

They would have to be stupid to try a 10-3


CD-3 in that map would be a toss-up so it would be 7-5-1
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Vern
vern1988
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,165
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.30, S: -0.70

P P P

« Reply #15 on: November 08, 2019, 05:24:07 PM »



This is a good map I just made.

1,3,6,12 and 13 are safe D; 2,4,5,7,8,10 and 11 are safe R; 9 is Toss-up
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Vern
vern1988
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,165
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.30, S: -0.70

P P P

« Reply #16 on: November 08, 2019, 08:06:42 PM »

Any map that puts two incumbents into the same districts will not happen. That is one of the rules they have.
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Vern
vern1988
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,165
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.30, S: -0.70

P P P

« Reply #17 on: November 08, 2019, 08:41:41 PM »

Any map that puts two incumbents into the same districts will not happen. That is one of the rules they have.
Well Holding was districted into Ellmer's district and defeated her in a primary (this is my district, NC-02).

The only other notable example I can think of is when state Republicans districted Kucinich and Kaptur into one district and Kaptur won.

It happens.




this list the rules and one of them are they are trying to not pair people.
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Vern
vern1988
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,165
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.30, S: -0.70

P P P

« Reply #18 on: November 08, 2019, 08:43:58 PM »



This is more than likely what we will end up with.
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Vern
vern1988
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,165
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.30, S: -0.70

P P P

« Reply #19 on: November 08, 2019, 10:39:12 PM »



Oh this is just a rough estimate
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Vern
vern1988
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,165
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.30, S: -0.70

P P P

« Reply #20 on: November 09, 2019, 10:23:12 AM »
« Edited: November 09, 2019, 10:28:39 AM by Vern »

What is going to be interesting to see is which republican congress members they try to save, and which one they put in a Democratic district. Also, if that congress person ends up jumping into the Governor race or Senate Race.

With the current map that they saved, Walker, Holding and Rouzer are all likely to be voted out, with Rouzer having the best chance at winning re-election. I could see him running again. But with Walker and Holding, I don't think they will. Walker could jump to another race.
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Vern
vern1988
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,165
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.30, S: -0.70

P P P

« Reply #21 on: November 10, 2019, 09:56:57 PM »

Y’all think we will get a final map this week?
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Vern
vern1988
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,165
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.30, S: -0.70

P P P

« Reply #22 on: November 11, 2019, 02:22:42 PM »

Y’all think we will get a final map this week?

I think I remember reading they're planning for release on Thursday.


I can’t wait to see what my new district could be.
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Vern
vern1988
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,165
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.30, S: -0.70

P P P

« Reply #23 on: November 13, 2019, 08:53:40 AM »

From the maps they have all posted, there is a very high chance I will either be in a very democratic district or a swing district.
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Vern
vern1988
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,165
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.30, S: -0.70

P P P

« Reply #24 on: November 13, 2019, 11:57:21 PM »

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