North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[ProgressiveModerate]

The NC GOP has released a proposal of redistricting criteria for the upcoming session:

• Equal Population - Acceptable range for a district's population is within +/- 5% of the ideal population
• Contiguity - Districts must be contiguous, and water contiguity is sufficient
• Counties, Groupings, and Traversals - legislative districts should be drawn within county groupings, and within these groupings, county lines should not be traversed except in a few cases. The congressional plan must only divide counties for the purposes of population equalization and consideration of double bunking. If a county is of sufficient population to contain a CD within its boundaries, a district must be made entirely within that county.
  
• Racial data - Data identifying race will not be used as a factor when drawing districts
• VTDs - voting districts should only be split when necessary
• Compactness - a reasonable effort should be made to maintain compact districts, using as a guide the minimum Reock and Polsby-Popper scores
  
• Municipal boundaries - municipal boundaries may be considered when drawing districts
• Election data - Election results data and partisan considerations shall not be used in the drawing of districts
• Incumbent member residence - Member residence may be considered when drawing districts
• Communities of Interest - As long as a district plan complies with the other criteria, COIs may be considered in drawing districts

https://ncleg.gov/documentsites/committees/Senate2021-154/2021/08-09-2021/2021%20Joint%20Redistricting%20Committee%20Plan%20Proposed%20Criteria.pdf

So, does this pretty much exclude those Wake-to-Orange Dem vote sinks that I see all over the place from people?   I guess they can still do Miles Coleman's Guilford-to-Orange vote sink though.

If this becomes criteria, then yes, unless they draw a district entirely in Wake and they make a sink that combines the bit left over with Orange County.

This gives me a bit of hope we won't get a map that's too crazy, though it'll probably still end up being R slanted.

We could probably end up with a map simillar to the current one; not an extreme gerrymander but clearly drawn with partisan intentions that favors Rs.

[ProgressiveModerate]

If these new rules are actually applied, here's a map the GOP could still draw. The most notable thing is the fact that there needs to be a district entirely in Wake, which basically eliminates any chance of an 11 - 3 map. The other info around county splitting sounds pretty vague and using compactness as a "guideline" doesn't necessarily mean much.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Someone sent this map in a Discord I'm in, saying it's a leak of the draft NC map for 2022. I have no idea if it's legitimate or not, as they haven't provided a source.

Lol if that's their intended map, it's so sloppy in addition to being a gerrymander.

It doesn't seem that implausible though tbh, especially since Republicans in the NCGA appear to be misunderstanding the judicial decisions wrt: NC-01 and think that it can just be drawn any kind of way. NC-10 makes sense here too as a seat drawn explicitly for Tim Moore. And tbh the NC Republicans are kind of into being really sloppy at mapping.

The formatting also looks a lot like NCGA maps, not that that means anything.

I don't believe this is true. 

Also I tried to recreate this map, and it seems like they used very old population data.

For me it works out almost prfectly on 2019 data on DRA; it's just difficult to get the border between 4 and 14 and 9 and 12

[ProgressiveModerate]

Oh my god, that's hideous. How'd that 13th vote in 2020?

I got about Trump + 7.8; definitively not safe.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here's a 11-3 NC map that follows the rules. I tried to make all the Trump district a pretty well balanced mix of suburbs, small towns, and rural areas, so that they will be a bit less elastic

[ProgressiveModerate]

That's definitely 11-3,  I doubt cracking NC-1 would survive in the court.   

Weird they're putting Watauga into NC-11 though.

Cracking NC-6 was expected all along,  NC Republicans and all.

Uh in that image it looks like NC-6 survives though you have to look closely

[ProgressiveModerate]

That's definitely 11-3,  I doubt cracking NC-1 would survive in the court.   

Weird they're putting Watauga into NC-11 though.

Cracking NC-6 was expected all along,  NC Republicans and all.

Uh in that image it looks like NC-6 survives though you have to look closely

No, we have Youtube videos of the NC leg stream where this came from, they took Greensboro out of the 6th and shoved into some rural seat

Link?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Why are people assuming this map is going to get struck down at all lmao

This proposal is playing with fire regarding racial gerrymandering, and the North Carolina Supreme Court is 4D-3R

A federal suit’s likely result would be SCOTUS easing or eliminating the VRA district requirement, and the NCSC will be majority Republican by the time this reaches them. The map will hold up.

The state suit happens first, not the federal one. Democrats would be stupid to sue in federal court, and there's no removal if the suit is based on the state constitution.

Yes, but as I also pointed out, the full NCSC will probably not rule on this until after 2022 when it will likely have a GOP majority. So both avenues are fruitless.

Why would you think it would take that long? The NC SC will rule in late 2021, or at the latest early 2022. Even if you assume the Republicans win, the court election isn't until Nov. 2022 and the change in office not until Jan. 1, 2023. In any event, I don't think it's certain at all that all of the Republicans on the NC SC would vote to overturn their precedents on partisan gerrymandering.

Because can’t the Chief Justice hold up the case? The dude seems like a pretty right wing justice

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here's another ghastly map that was worked on earlier today.

Ye that gotta be a joke 13 prolly voted to Biden and it’s pretty much impossible for the GOP to crack Mecklenburg to not have a D seat unless they gonna cede NC-6 but NC-12 is prolly the better trade for them.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Tried my hand at a relatively clean 11-3 NC gerry. Absolutely no way the gop goes 12-2 as it would be horrendous, illegal, and probably very weak and in net less effective than an 11-3 would be.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Tried my hand at a compact 10-4 map.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Another attempt at a compact R gerry

[ProgressiveModerate]

Seems like the GOPs goal was to try increase the chances of holding a majority rather than worrying about seat 30 or 31.

[ProgressiveModerate]

If you honestly think that is why the Democrats in then states do that. Then you are fooling yourself.

I’m not saying it’s the only reason. But it was definitely republicans that started the modern gerrymandering war with the old Texas, Louisiana, Florida maps of the 2000s & 2010s. Democrats also are playing in this, but we’re the ones trying to end it.

I think you are forgetting what Democrats did in NC for years. Republicans in NC at least are making maps that are too crazy

...back when the Democratic party in states like NC and TX was still led by white conservatives. You may not be aware that a decade ago, Republicans saw gerrymandering as a necessary tool to achieve power, while the people advocating for commissions and independent redistricting were Democrats. Good government and independent redistricting are liberal priorities. After Republicans used gerrymandering to lock up state legislatures and Congress, many liberals said Inks this, let's go for the jugular, too.

NC and Ohio actually have the Republicans gerrymandering aggressively, but so far this cycle Dems have arguably been more aggressive than Republicans. Illinois and Oregon Dems both did near maximal gerrymanders, NY seems to be on that path, while Indiana Republicans avoided making IN-01 a swing or R seat when they easily could've, same with NE Republicans and Omaha.

Oregon is literally the only state where Dems have actually passed a gerrymander, and I wouldn’t call it quite a “maximal” gerrymander either. In some states, Rs chose to play safer (IN), in others Rs had to fight bad geography (TX) and in states like NE they couldn’t do it all on their own. IL if passed would look hideous but at the end of the day is really no more aggressive than say NC.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Funny how overall NC-6 is actually pretty compact and clean except for the bottom part which is absolutely horrendous lol. From what I've heard though it's more for the sake of roughly following some city lines rather than for real partisan reasons.

This is why after a certain point following these lines to a tea really ain't worth it IMO.

[ProgressiveModerate]

A trial seems likely to be held at this point and is scheduled for early January.

My question is if the NC SC overturns the maps, will they draw them themselves, or will they kick them back to the legistlature, and if they do, will the legistlature just keep redrawing gerrymanders tht technically fix what the court wants but maximizes their advantage.?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Schedule

[ProgressiveModerate]

What are the odds this map gets overturned by the court? What would happen next?

Overturned, in part of in whole is pretty likely, though not a shoe-in

Thing is though I don’t think the court can actually seize redistricting power in NC so it goes back to leg who prolly draws something that technically is what the court wants to see but is still gerrymandered.

[ProgressiveModerate]

What are the odds this map gets overturned by the court? What would happen next?

Overturned, in part of in whole is pretty likely, though not a shoe-in

Thing is though I don’t think the court can actually seize redistricting power in NC so it goes back to leg who prolly draws something that technically is what the court wants to see but is still gerrymandered.

Technically the court can do whatever they want. The leg just has a realistic nuclear option.

Lol imagined getting impeach for using special master to draw a map.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Technically the court can do whatever they want. The leg just has a realistic nuclear option.

Lol imagined getting impeach for using special master to draw a map.

This is where our system really starts to fail. There are no repercussions for lawmakers who do this, even though their motives and actions are brazenly corrupt.

the repercussions are elections, if voters see no fault with the legislators' actions then so be it

When you use gerrymandering to rig the elections in your favor, then impeach if the court tries to undo this gerrymandering, you create a Catch 22.

I could see this getting some national headlines, though ultimately prolly shifts the scales very little and the GOP will almost certainly hold both chambers, perhaps with a supermajority

[ProgressiveModerate]

Technically the court can do whatever they want. The leg just has a realistic nuclear option.

Lol imagined getting impeach for using special master to draw a map.

This is where our system really starts to fail. There are no repercussions for lawmakers who do this, even though their motives and actions are brazenly corrupt.

the repercussions are elections, if voters see no fault with the legislators' actions then so be it

When you use gerrymandering to rig the elections in your favor, then impeach if the court tries to undo this gerrymandering, you create a Catch 22.

Well as I said, I don't know if it would happen. I highly doubt they would do it over fixing the major gerrymander in the legislative district which is the 2 NE senate districts. But on the other hand there isn't much one could definetively say was a gerrymander in the state senate. The state house has a few examples like Cabarrus/Gastonia. Overall the court would definetely be pushing their luck by "ungerrymandering" a map that doesn't have much to really change. Maybe there is appetite for it at all. ProgMods statement about being worried from blowback is certainly a factor which is why there is no point in fighting a fix of the VRA senate districts. Infact even if the court fixes that it is possible the GOP could still win both seats anyway.

What if the court were to court overturn the entire congressional map outside of just NC-02? Obviously that would be less of a personal problem for the state legislatures as their seats aren’t changing, but congressional redistrictong seems to be highest stakes.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Was watching a bit of the trial was funny because the defense was mad that Dems used a color cartogram.

[ProgressiveModerate]

So what is the TLDR for this point in time on the outcome?

The map used in 2020 was pretty damn fair, it's frustrating that it couldn't just have been kept in place, since that *should* satisfy the rationals on both sides.

There's 14 districts in the first place.

Ye a least change map was always going to be tricky since there was no obvious place to put the new district other than “in the triangle”, which means most parts of the state where redistricting is decisive would have to be shifted significantly anyways. Doesn’t excuse the GOP Gerry though.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Today is closing arguments, not sure when we get verdict though

[ProgressiveModerate]

So what is the TLDR for this point in time on the outcome?

The map used in 2020 was pretty damn fair, it's frustrating that it couldn't just have been kept in place, since that *should* satisfy the rationals on both sides.

There's 14 districts in the first place.

Ye a least change map was always going to be tricky since there was no obvious place to put the new district other than “in the triangle”, which means most parts of the state where redistricting is decisive would have to be shifted significantly anyways. Doesn’t excuse the GOP Gerry though.

Here's my try at what a least change map could have looked like. The current 8th gets split equally into a rump 8th and a new 14th, with each of the two taking on more areas in the triangle and the Charlotte area respectively. New 8th is Biden+6 in 2020, new 14th is Trump+18. Every other district avoids any major changes, only really get what they need to keep population equality and that's it.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a292ac55-346b-419c-a21a-3a08569aefe6

Ye I agree 8 is the best district to split as it’s already overpopulated and connects the 2 fastest growing areas of the state. Good job.