North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[Vern]

CD-1(Green): PVI R+11.58
CD-2(Dark Purple): PVI R+9.76
CD-3(Red): PVI D+3.03
CD-4(Yellow): PVI R+20.9
CD-5(Light Greenish): PVI R+5.43
CD-6(Gray): PVI R+23.04
CD-7(Light Purple): PVI D+6.75
CD-8(Teal): PVI R+.29
CD-9(Pink): PVI R+14.26
CD-10(Lime Green): PVI R+7.54
CD-11(Light Blue): PVI D+10.56
CD-12(Tan): PVI D+9.48
CD-13(Goldish): PVI D+17.88

[Vern]

What you guys think?

[Nyvin]

Not a fan of the Charlotte wrap-around district,  also it looks like you lowered the AA percentage in the northeast district quite heavily.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Could you add numbers to the districts? Your description of their colors don't do them justice.

[Nyvin]

Here's a least change map I made (at least somewhat least change)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7176a848-2859-4692-acfb-0e10b96ec7af

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Johnston really should not be in a district with Wilmington.

Everything there is Raleigh centric.

[Nyvin]

Johnston really should not be in a district with Wilmington.

Everything there is Raleigh centric.

Johnston is in a district with Wilmington in the current map.

[Oryxslayer]

And here's mine of course, since I guess this might as well be our NC2020 redistricting thread. I didn't really care who or where incumbents lived when I drew this, and frankly, I still don't.

The general theme of 13-district NC is either the 7th or the 3rd has to bite some sort of bullet: there is too much pop on the coasts for just 1 seat, but there is too little easily reachable thanks to the minority seats. It's even harder when you consider the most GOP counties in the state by percentage are south of Hampton roads and 'want' to be connected to the AA 1st geographically.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Johnston really should not be in a district with Wilmington.

Everything there is Raleigh centric.

Johnston is in a district with Wilmington in the current map.

No kidding!

Its not like it was the first thing that started my war with the NC GOP, oh wait, it was!

[Oryxslayer]

Johnston really should not be in a district with Wilmington.

Everything there is Raleigh centric.

Johnston is in a district with Wilmington in the current map.

No kidding!

Its not like it was the first thing that started my war with the NC GOP, oh wait, it was!

Thankfully, the 13-district problem of eastern north carolinas population is solved when the 14th gets added in 2020. There's enough in the east for a Wilmington GOP seat and a north coast one, with only minor demands from booming Raleigh and her suburbs.

[DINGO Joe]

Chatham really belongs in a Research Triangle District and not with Randolph as they are radically different places now.

[Nyvin]

Holding (NC-2) and Walker (NC-6) are both probably shivering over this redistricting, considering their seats are easily the most vulnerable to flipping to the Democrats as a result.

[Oryxslayer]

Holding (NC-2) and Walker (NC-6) are both probably shivering over this redistricting, considering their seats are easily the most vulnerable to flipping to the Democrats as a result.

Holding is holding off (heh) seriously fundraising because he expects to be DOA.

Chatham really belongs in a Research Triangle District and not with Randolph as they are radically different places now.

I think we all agree, except that the research triangle in general has to give up pop to other seats because it's so large but not large enough. If it wasn't Chatham, it would be somewhere else. When 2020 comes along and the triangle gets seat 14, it has to be included because the triangle is now demanding Pop from other regions, rather than having to give up pop to others.

[Tintrlvr]

Here's another alternative that I put together:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7c5770ec-23d0-4b88-86b7-9848e2865e16

[Nyvin]

Here's another alternative that I put together:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7c5770ec-23d0-4b88-86b7-9848e2865e16

That actually looks great!   I like it better than my map, lol.     I'd love it if the courts put this map in place.

[Sol]

And here's mine of course, since I guess this might as well be our NC2020 redistricting thread. I didn't really care who or where incumbents lived when I drew this, and frankly, I still don't.

The general theme of 13-district NC is either the 7th or the 3rd has to bite some sort of bullet: there is too much pop on the coasts for just 1 seat, but there is too little easily reachable thanks to the minority seats. It's even harder when you consider the most GOP counties in the state by percentage are south of Hampton roads and 'want' to be connected to the AA 1st geographically.

Your analysis here is right to be sure but I don't think a OBX+random Greenville+Wilmington district is a sustainable bullet biting; better to draw Wilmington in towards Robeson or up towards Goldsboro than draw such a discontinuous thing.

[Sol]

Basically Eastern NC's map depends on what you want to sacrifice, particularly as it pertains to NC-01.
Basically you can:

A. Draw an NC-01 which is not minority-majority or minority-plurality but where black voters would likely elect their candidate of choice. This can be done without having to dip into the Triangle--nice for Community of Interest regions since Durham and NW NC are fairly different. However, because these areas are pretty polarized they could fall to a Republican in a wave--sort of a GA-02 before 2010 situation. Drawing an Eastern NC only 1st district also forces all the districts around it clockwise--basically in this layout a Raleigh exurbs-Fayetteville district is an obvious thing. This map tends to favor Republicans because a Lean D district in the Fayetteville area doesn't happen. It also forces an awkward split of Cumberland from Hoke County generally speaking, as well as a grody three-way cut of Wake. Potentially legally questionable under VRA due to above discussed competitiveness.

I drew a version of A here on DRA. Would love feedback.

There's also an option A1, which includes more westerly areas like Granville and Franklin counties. I chose to exclude them for this exercise because both counties have bits which are very Triangle oriented. Common Cause NC did a mock redistricting commission a few years ago which adopted this approach.

B. Draw a plurality black district which dips into the Triangle. This option is the current status quo. This has some obvious pluses; it makes much more pleasing maps in the rest of the state (easier mapping in Eastern North Carolina, as the coast, Wilmington, and Fayetteville/the Sandhills get their own district). Obviously the downside is the awkward hash of dipping into the Triangle. There are two subtypes; B1, which goes into Durham, and B2, which goes into Raleigh. Either way the 1st District is very likely to elect a black candidate of choice as whites in both Durham and Raleigh are D-leaning, and Black voters would dominate in a primary.

B1 has the virtue of being easier as Granville county leads the way into Durham without having to cut through super white precincts. B2 has the virtue of allowing for an all-in-Wake County district and keeping Durham and Chapel Hill together, although it does split Raleigh proper. Working on making nice versions of both.

C. A black-majority district. Would probably require two Triangle prongs and indelicate finagling in ENC besides. Not my favorite and potentially legally questionable.

[Sol]

Chatham really belongs in a Research Triangle District and not with Randolph as they are radically different places now.

Yes, although the Western part of the county is a very similar to Randolph.

North Carolina is really rotten with these rurban counties; Chatham is noticeable because of the partisan divide, but it's not nearly as extreme as in Iredell or Franklin.

[nerd73]

Here's a mostly clean NC map.

[cvparty]

Here's a mostly clean NC map.

pretty good gerrymander

[Nyvin]

Here's a mostly clean NC map.

You realize the purpose of the court order is to "undo" the current partisan gerrymander...correct?

[Vern]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/295cde18-80fe-418b-aac6-04a776535a4d

Here is the link to the OP map, if anyone wants to look at it in detail.

[Vern]

Chatham really belongs in a Research Triangle District and not with Randolph as they are radically different places now.

I agree, That is why I tried to keep the Triad and Triangle in three districts. But I had to put some one the triangle in a third district because the population is to big for just two districts

[lfromnj]

Here's a mostly clean NC map.

You realize the purpose of the court order is to "undo" the current partisan gerrymander...correct?

I think he knows
He drew that ringmander a few days ago. He just trolling us good for fun. Love it

[DINGO Joe]

Chatham really belongs in a Research Triangle District and not with Randolph as they are radically different places now.

I agree, That is why I tried to keep the Triad and Triangle in three districts. But I had to put some one the triangle in a third district because the population is to big for just two districts

I thought your map was fine for Chatham and even for Johnson.  Most of the maps weren't.  Though I'd argue that Chatham is more Research Triangle than Johnson.