North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[Gass3268]

This change passed. Sounds like it added a bit more of the black ares of Pitt County into CD-01.

https://twitter.com/brentlaurenz/status/1195078027253866502?s=20

[Gass3268]

Butterfield might need Durham back, in some deal or so considering he is only up by 8 points. I think a 9-5 map is probably what happens. NC D's look likely to take a net of -1 in the state supreme court and possibly -2 to a total of 4-3.

The CJ seat has narrowed from R +4K votes to R+<1K, and there are 10's of thousands of absentees left to count.  Pretty sure that one flips back to the incumbent Dem, but R's are sure to win the other 2 seats now.  5D/2R is the most likely outcome.  The seats up in 2022 are 2D/1R, so it is very possible the court flips in a Biden midterm.

The NC Democratic Party might need to go out and recruit a few more fake Republicans.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/MurphinNC/status/1455660028103479300?s=20
Moving towards house.

This map is beautiful considering what Dems are doing in other states.

Other than Illinois name another state were Dems right now are doing what's already happened in North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas?

[Gass3268]

North Carolina Supreme Court has agreed to delay the primaries.

https://twitter.com/SFalmlen/status/1468697706994544640?s=20

[Gass3268]

North Carolina Supreme Court has agreed to delay the primaries.

https://twitter.com/SFalmlen/status/1468697706994544640?s=20

Wonderful news! This day has been win after win in terms of redistricting.

What else am I missing other than Virginia?

[Gass3268]

So what do you think the map would look like if the courts throw this one out?

Hopefully like the 2020 map with an additional competitive seat thrown in the mix.

Yes, expect a Winston-Salem / Greensboro seat and a more Democratic AA district in the northeast. Not sure what other changes.

An actual Sandhills district?

[Gass3268]

I never want to hear again how the gop has a systemic bias in its favor

NY can have a 22-4 map and get away with it

Oregon can get away with its bs

Illinois can get away with its bs

These rulings always go in one direction. Always.

Only one party supported the Supreme Court declaring partisan gerrymandering unconstitutional. Only party is proposing legislation to deal with partisan gerrymandering.

[Gass3268]

Where would a sixth Dem district even come from? I count one seat in Charlotte, one in Raleigh, one in Durham/Chapel Hill, one in Greensboro/Winston-Salem and one in the Northeast black belt (that's trending R).

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1489745732634558471?s=20&t=Fc3VJsnVvxZ...

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/DallasWoodhouse/status/1493344287983120388

I maintain that the NCGOP would have saved themselves so much grief had they not gotten greedy and cracked Greensboro.

Looks like Tim Moore is using this redraw to get back at Cawthorne.

https://twitter.com/lekhashupeck/status/1493596496180228100?s=20&t=mF9Z_dArU...

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/DallasWoodhouse/status/1493754452351852545?s=20&t=F23jhV...

[Gass3268]

Here is a guesstimate map:

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1493757866494218260?s=20&t=F23jhVyZyBh...

[Gass3268]

I think there is enough here for the Democrats to turn it down.

[Gass3268]

I think there is enough here for the Democrats to turn it down.

A lot of NC legislative Democratic leaders come from Chapel Hill.

That in addition to the chopping up of the Triad black community.

[Gass3268]

Here is the proposed new House map.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/MurphinNC/status/1493987204548501507?s=20&t=kxsjFLVEjq71...

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/BryanRAnderson/status/1493987911192260619

Winston Salem,Fayettville both split in 2, Democrats get 5 safe seats from Charlotte. Map is pretty close to a D gerrymander arguably, not sure why the GOP wouldn't just let the special masters draw it at this point, and redraw after 24. Not sure how much worse it could it get.

Pretty sure they can't redraw the legislative maps again, unless court ordered. Congressional maps are a different story.

[Gass3268]

Are both Charlotte seats safe Dem?

Both look to be double digit Biden.

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1496540478820712448?s=20&t=tRiWeDfgQOI...

[Gass3268]

Probably will be 8-6, but could be 7-7.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1496541870599847936?s=20&t=n2Riek7Y1a6...

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/scotusreporter/status/1500957552162623489?s=20&t=nJY6nnv...

[Gass3268]

Hopefully Democrats in New York are ready to do the right thing after what North Carolina Republicans are going to do today.

[Gass3268]

Yeah this is an 11-3 map. Haven't put it all together but the gist of it is that NC-01 takes in Durham and a bunch of Orange along with a bunch of the northeast, NC-02 is most of Wake, and then NC-12 is Mecklenburg obviously.

That is only the first map, some of the others don’t do that.

[Gass3268]

Btw, didn't NC Democrats screw themselves sometime in the 90s or 2000s by taking away the governor's power to veto maps?

Not only did they do that, it was arranged by Roy Cooper.

Woof. These maps are disgusting and I don't support gerrymandering regardless of which party does it, but it's very hard for me to feel bad here.

They didn’t take away the veto power, it’s just when they added the power they explicitly made redistricting exempt.