2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[😥]

https://twitter.com/claudiatenney/status/1488196685817913386

I would say that she isn't favored in the primary

[BoiseBoy]

Steve Bellone (Suffolk County Executive) is looking at running in the open (and now far more Democrat) NY-01 race. He would be a strong candidate.

https://twitter.com/thorongil16/status/1488319940935307265?s=21

[Roll Roons]

I think he's leaning towards a run:
https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1488291123932008450

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1488371054716280832

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1488371054716280832

Demings is not going to win. That $8.2 million really should be going to Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1488371054716280832

Demings is not going to win. That $8.2 million really should be going to Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania.

LoL the last poll had her down 45/41 it can happeb

[ElectionsGuy]

I was doing some research on the differences between Senate and House votes in states that hold them simultaneously. Here's the results for competitive-ish states for both 2018 and 2020.

+ = House races more R than Senate
- = Senate races more R than House

2018

AZ - House: D+1.7% ; Senate: D+2.4% ; Difference: +0.7%
FL - House: R+5.2%* ; Senate: R+0.1% ; Difference: +5.1%*
IN - House: R+11.0% ; Senate: R+5.9% ; Difference: +5.1%
MI - House: D+7.8%** ; Senate: D+6.5% ; Difference: -1.3%**
MO - House: R+12.5% ; Senate: R+5.8% ; Difference: +6.7%
NV - House: D+5.3% ; Senate: D+5.0% ; Difference: -0.3%
PA - House: D+10.2%** ; Senate: D+13.1% ; Difference: +2.9%**
TX - House: R+3.4%** ; Senate: R+2.6% ; Difference: +0.8%**
WI - House: D+7.6%** ; Senate: D+10.8% ; Difference: +3.2%**

*Inflated R number due to D districts not having votes, difference would be smaller
**Deflated R number due to uncontested races, difference would be larger in WI, PA, TX, smaller in MI

2020

AZ - House: R+0.2% ; Senate: D+2.4% ; Difference: +2.6%
CO - House: D+9.5% ; Senate: D+9.3% ; Difference: -0.2%
GA - House: R+2.0% ; Senate: R+1.8% --> D+1.2% ; Senate (S): R+1.0% --> D+2.0% Difference: +0.2%-1.0% --> +3.2%-4.0%
IA - House: R+5.9% ; Senate: R+6.6% ; Difference: -0.7%
MI - House: D+1.3% ; Senate: D+1.7% ; Difference: +0.4%
MN - House: D+2.5% ; Senate: D+5.2% ; Difference: +2.7%
NM - House: D+9.8% ; Senate: D+6.1% ; Difference: -3.7%
NC - House: D+0.6%* ; Senate: R+1.8% ; Difference: -2.4%*
TX - House: R+9.3% ; Senate: R+9.6% ; Difference: -0.3%

*Inflated D number due to R's not contesting a race, the difference would be smaller

Senate races tend to track very closely to House vote margins in recent times. Rarely ever 5 points or more apart, and if they are, it's usually a case of "moderate" Senators.

[Roll Roons]

How Park Slope will be represented by a Republican in Congress:
https://twitter.com/Thorongil16/status/1488603569947303939

Nicole would win SI by North Korea-esque margins.

[BoiseBoy]

Apparently Trump is considering endorsing Katie Arrington over incumbent Nancy Mace in the primary for SC-01. As you may remember, Arrington successfully primaried Mark Sanford in 2018 and then went on to lose to Joe Cunningham in the general election.

https://www.fitsnews.com/2022/02/01/sources-donald-trump-planning-endorsement-of-katie-arrington-in-south-carolina-congressional-race/

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

How Park Slope will be represented by a Republican in Congress:
https://twitter.com/Thorongil16/status/1488603569947303939

Nicole would win SI by North Korea-esque margins.

Rose would beat him in the primary

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Apparently Trump is considering endorsing Katie Arrington over incumbent Nancy Mace in the primary for SC-01. As you may remember, Arrington successfully primaried Mark Sanford in 2018 and then went on to lose to Joe Cunningham in the general election.

https://www.fitsnews.com/2022/02/01/sources-donald-trump-planning-endorsement-of-katie-arrington-in-south-carolina-congressional-race/

Mace is in trouble...

[Pollster]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1490722959174033415?s=20&t=ITYsve6...

[Young Conservative]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1490722959174033415?s=20&t=ITYsve6...

lol safe R.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1490722959174033415?s=20&t=ITYsve6...

Yeah, I don't believe this at all.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol the Senate races are gonna track very closely to the Governor races if Election Guy you think WI, PA, AZ, NV are Lean R you aren't looking at the poll and they are aligning closely to our Gov races, and Nate Silver said it's a 304/234 map anyways not much changed since 2020

But, Election Guy always think WI is Lean R and Russ Feingold and Tammy Baldwin got elected and Johnson and Toomey won only by 200K votes, I also did my research too

Portman, Grassley and Rubio won by double digits 2M votes that's why it's a 304/234 map not an R but map we are all pollsters on this site, everyone does research on polls

It's only February not November plenty of time

[ElectionsGuy]

PPP, Profoundly Poor Polling. Not that it was unexpected because it was internal anyway.

I can't wait for all the bad house polls. It's going to be a true test of whether people have learned anything about our current political situation and structural polling bias. The 2020 house polls were some of the worst and most unrealistic polls I had ever seen. People believed them anyway, and it led many (most, actually) to assume Democrats would do even better in the House than in 2018. What happens when a bunch of polls put Democrats at or even overperforming their 2020 performance in multiple districts, despite the generic ballot being much more R? Or forget that even, we're already seeing right now huge disparities between Biden approval and generic ballot between pollsters (Quinnipiac has Biden approval at -19, GB at R+1 while Fox has Biden approval at -5 but GB at the same R+1) and GB's ranging from R+14 to D+6. Do the "experts" over at Cook, Sabato, or 538 change their outlook on the House, and doubt Republicans actually take control (Dem gerrymandering is also going to help that argument)? Does the narrative soon become "red wave doesn't look likely" despite some of the worst fundamentals for the Democratic Party since 2010 or 1994? We'll see by the summer or early fall if these "nonpartisan" election forecasters try to sell a narrative favorable to Dems again. They can also point to fundraising, which is going to favor Democrats as they have mastered the use of dark money and have billionaires casually dumping hundreds of millions to help them out. It's going to get interesting, but once again (unfortunately) many people are going to be duped and misled in the process.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

PPP, Profoundly Poor Polling. Not that it was unexpected because it was internal anyway.

I can't wait for all the bad house polls. It's going to be a true test of whether people have learned anything about our current political situation and structural polling bias. The 2020 house polls were some of the worst and most unrealistic polls I had ever seen. People believed them anyway, and it led many (most, actually) to assume Democrats would do even better in the House than in 2018. What happens when a bunch of polls put Democrats at or even overperforming their 2020 performance in multiple districts, despite the generic ballot being much more R? Or forget that even, we're already seeing right now huge disparities between Biden approval and generic ballot between pollsters (Quinnipiac has Biden approval at -19, GB at R+1 while Fox has Biden approval at -5 but GB at the same R+1) and GB's ranging from R+14 to D+6. Do the "experts" over at Cook, Sabato, or 538 change their outlook on the House, and doubt Republicans actually take control (Dem gerrymandering is also going to help that argument)? Does the narrative soon become "red wave doesn't look likely" despite some of the worst fundamentals for the Democratic Party since 2010 or 1994? We'll see by the summer or early fall if these "nonpartisan" election forecasters try to sell a narrative favorable to Dems again. They can also point to fundraising, which is going to favor Democrats as they have mastered the use of dark money and have billionaires casually dumping hundreds of millions to help them out. It's going to get interesting, but once again (unfortunately) many people are going to be duped and misled in the process.

I can't wait to see the democrat meltdowns after the midterms. Right now on this forum most D users overestimate democrats, but that's nothing compared to outside this forum. For example on alternatehistory.com, where users are significantly less politically aware than people on this forum (but still more than the average person), the average prediction I saw on a midterm prediction thread was democrats GAINING Senate seats, losing no governorships and barely losing the house. If that's how people are viewing the midterms on an (admittedly left-leaning) more politically aware and intelligent forum, I can't imagine how your average democrat voter who is fed daily with "Jan 6 is the end of the GOP" headlines will react to a red wave.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Mr. Pollster I hope you are not actually buying that lol.

Anyways, somebody call Wasserman to ask how much he’s seen, because I am ready to call the race for Hinson

[MT Treasurer]

Time to ask Ashley about the break-even price for soybeans. If she can’t answer that, well, she had better have her motorcycle ready because it’s going to take a lot of retail politics to make amends for that.

[2016]

Morgan Ortagus in for TN-5
https://twitter.com/MorganOrtagus/status/1490681033649438726

[Roll Roons]

Yonkers mayor Mike Spano considering a challenge to Jamaal Bowman (NY-16) from the center: http://yonkerstimes.com/yonkers-mayor-spano-blasts-congressman-bowman-and-bail-reform-says-hes-looking-at-a-challenge/

A lot of the left-wing parts of the Bronx got taken out so this could be one to watch.

[Sestak]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1491106985340960768

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://twitter.com/karringtonsc/status/1491036701682446340
Former Rep. Katie Arrington running against Nancy Mace in the primary. Trump endorsement almost certainly coming soon.

[Roll Roons]

I love how Democrats keep shooting themselves in the foot: https://www.axios.com/cori-bush-defund-police-2022-midterms-f78a07b5-40ae-42e2-ba0e-e50d205a1dd9.html

[ElectionsGuy]

PPP, Profoundly Poor Polling. Not that it was unexpected because it was internal anyway.

I can't wait for all the bad house polls. It's going to be a true test of whether people have learned anything about our current political situation and structural polling bias. The 2020 house polls were some of the worst and most unrealistic polls I had ever seen. People believed them anyway, and it led many (most, actually) to assume Democrats would do even better in the House than in 2018. What happens when a bunch of polls put Democrats at or even overperforming their 2020 performance in multiple districts, despite the generic ballot being much more R? Or forget that even, we're already seeing right now huge disparities between Biden approval and generic ballot between pollsters (Quinnipiac has Biden approval at -19, GB at R+1 while Fox has Biden approval at -5 but GB at the same R+1) and GB's ranging from R+14 to D+6. Do the "experts" over at Cook, Sabato, or 538 change their outlook on the House, and doubt Republicans actually take control (Dem gerrymandering is also going to help that argument)? Does the narrative soon become "red wave doesn't look likely" despite some of the worst fundamentals for the Democratic Party since 2010 or 1994? We'll see by the summer or early fall if these "nonpartisan" election forecasters try to sell a narrative favorable to Dems again. They can also point to fundraising, which is going to favor Democrats as they have mastered the use of dark money and have billionaires casually dumping hundreds of millions to help them out. It's going to get interesting, but once again (unfortunately) many people are going to be duped and misled in the process.

I can't wait to see the democrat meltdowns after the midterms. Right now on this forum most D users overestimate democrats, but that's nothing compared to outside this forum. For example on alternatehistory.com, where users are significantly less politically aware than people on this forum (but still more than the average person), the average prediction I saw on a midterm prediction thread was democrats GAINING Senate seats, losing no governorships and barely losing the house. If that's how people are viewing the midterms on an (admittedly left-leaning) more politically aware and intelligent forum, I can't imagine how your average democrat voter who is fed daily with "Jan 6 is the end of the GOP" headlines will react to a red wave.

Your average Democrat does know that Biden's approval is very bad (and they think it's coming from their own partisan side, lol) but as you said they're engulfed in Trump is Hitler; Jan 6th was worse than Pearl Harbor type propaganda, so in their minds, the GOP is an extremist party that shouldn't be able to garner more than 30% of the vote. It will be a "democracy is dead" type of meltdown for them if both chambers flip, but still only a fraction of the reaction to a potential 2nd Trump term in 2024. MSNBC will be a must-watch on election night.

It really is weird how there are so many blue wave predictions out there basically every cycle no matter what, but I never see Republicans massively overpredict their own side. Even the most staunch Trump supporters like RedEaglePolitics I think underpredict what's likely to happen in the midterms in some races. It's a very bizarre asymmetrical phenomenon, partially I think because Republicans are more defeatist (used to losing) and media/political coverage makes it seem like they're weaker than they are, and some of them buy into that even subconsciously.