2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[wbrocks67]

NJ map is a major loss for the Republican Party and people who like competitive elections. Probably should have seen this coming when Rabner appointed the man Christie screwed off of the Supreme Court.

Haven't actually seen the Republican map to compare it so I'll hold off on saying the process was blatantly rigged; early indication to me is that they pushed for too much.

NJ-02 and NJ-07 will likely be competitive in presidential years though

[Mr.Phips]

NJ map is a major loss for the Republican Party and people who like competitive elections. Probably should have seen this coming when Rabner appointed the man Christie screwed off of the Supreme Court.

Haven't actually seen the Republican map to compare it so I'll hold off on saying the process was blatantly rigged; early indication to me is that they pushed for too much.

But what Republicans did in OH and NC is just fine?

[Senator Incitatus]

NJ map is a major loss for the Republican Party and people who like competitive elections. Probably should have seen this coming when Rabner appointed the man Christie screwed off of the Supreme Court.

Haven't actually seen the Republican map to compare it so I'll hold off on saying the process was blatantly rigged; early indication to me is that they pushed for too much.

But what Republicans did in OH and NC is just fine?

Absolutely braindead reply. Handle yourself.

NJ map is a major loss for the Republican Party and people who like competitive elections. Probably should have seen this coming when Rabner appointed the man Christie screwed off of the Supreme Court.

Haven't actually seen the Republican map to compare it so I'll hold off on saying the process was blatantly rigged; early indication to me is that they pushed for too much.

NJ-02 and NJ-07 will likely be competitive in presidential years though

NJ-02 will not be competitive again; it's now even more strongly Republican and trending only further in that direction. NJ-07 may be. Either way, we went from four competitive seats to one here.

[Senator Incitatus]

Found the R map here: https://newjerseyglobe.com/campaigns/we-have-the-democratic-and-republican-congressional-maps-heres-whats-being-proposed/

Looks like it largely kept things the same except for really going after Malinowski hard, which is what you'd expect given Tom Kean Jr.'s strength in the party.

[Roll Roons]

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/monmouth-democratic-leader-recruiting-virginia-congresswoman-to-challenge-chris-smith/

Lol. I couldn't make this up if I tried.

[kwabbit]

How does YouGov/the Economist actually have a D +9 generic ballot? That is such a glaring error that one would think they would make efforts to change their methodology to achieve more realistic results. Their approval numbers for Biden are reasonable, so why is the GCB so extreme. How are they sampling so many Biden disapprove/congressional Dem supporting people?

[Minnesota Mike]

How does YouGov/the Economist actually have a D +9 generic ballot? That is such a glaring error that one would think they would make efforts to change their methodology to achieve more realistic results. Their approval numbers for Biden are reasonable, so why is the GCB so extreme. How are they sampling so many Biden disapprove/congressional Dem supporting people?

Is it worse than the Rasmussen R+10 from a while back? I don't think so. Just because it does not line up with your priors it does not make it wrong. That having been said D+9 is probably an outlier IMO but like all polls it should be thrown in the average.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

How does YouGov/the Economist actually have a D +9 generic ballot? That is such a glaring error that one would think they would make efforts to change their methodology to achieve more realistic results. Their approval numbers for Biden are reasonable, so why is the GCB so extreme. How are they sampling so many Biden disapprove/congressional Dem supporting people?

It depends on turnout obviously Turnout is gonna be lower than 80/75 because it's a Midterm but if it's 65/60M Electorate we can still hold the blue wall because Newsom won bye the same margin and Terry lost because all of our Federal candidates weren't on the ballot TERRY lost bye 2 in Spanberger District

It's about holding the 304/234 blue wall and then going from there

[kwabbit]

How does YouGov/the Economist actually have a D +9 generic ballot? That is such a glaring error that one would think they would make efforts to change their methodology to achieve more realistic results. Their approval numbers for Biden are reasonable, so why is the GCB so extreme. How are they sampling so many Biden disapprove/congressional Dem supporting people?

Is it worse than the Rasmussen R+10 from a while back? I don't think so. Just because it does not line up with your priors it does not make it wrong. That having been said D+9 is probably an outlier IMO but like all polls it should be thrown in the average.

The R+10 result is definitely hard to believe as well, but ABC/WaPo and CNBC also had R+10, and they are both quite good posters. A reasonable prior should be something like R+4, given the results of high-quality firms, Biden's approvals, and actual election results. The current average is shaped in large part by mediocre online firms given that few live-caller pollsters have been in field lately. There is a very wide gulf between online and live-caller at the moment in terms of CGB.

I'm not saying to not throw it in the average. The poll was conducted honestly and any poll that was conducted honestly has some value. My question is why is The Economist satisfied with their polling? They are not running a functionally partisan operation like Rasmussen/Trafalgar, so one would think they wouldn't want to put out results over 10 points from any reasonable assessment of the truth. Given that they also use this data as an essential part of their data journalism operation, they should be seeking something that is more truthful.

[BoiseBoy]

Slotkin announces reelection campaign in new Lansing based MI-07 seat.

https://twitter.com/elissaslotkin/status/1475938148534394888?s=21

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/DavidEggert00/status/1475941295067648001?s=20

[ElectionsGuy]

How does YouGov/the Economist actually have a D +9 generic ballot? That is such a glaring error that one would think they would make efforts to change their methodology to achieve more realistic results. Their approval numbers for Biden are reasonable, so why is the GCB so extreme. How are they sampling so many Biden disapprove/congressional Dem supporting people?

Is it worse than the Rasmussen R+10 from a while back? I don't think so. Just because it does not line up with your priors it does not make it wrong. That having been said D+9 is probably an outlier IMO but like all polls it should be thrown in the average.

Yes, it is. Nothing right now supports the idea of Dems even slightly winning the national popular vote.

[Brittain33]

How does YouGov/the Economist actually have a D +9 generic ballot? That is such a glaring error that one would think they would make efforts to change their methodology to achieve more realistic results. Their approval numbers for Biden are reasonable, so why is the GCB so extreme. How are they sampling so many Biden disapprove/congressional Dem supporting people?

Is it worse than the Rasmussen R+10 from a while back? I don't think so. Just because it does not line up with your priors it does not make it wrong. That having been said D+9 is probably an outlier IMO but like all polls it should be thrown in the average.

Yes, it is. Nothing right now supports the idea of Dems even slightly winning the national popular vote.

I agree that D+9 doesn’t make sense, but Biden’s approvals have rebounded marginally in the last month.

[ElectionsGuy]

How does YouGov/the Economist actually have a D +9 generic ballot? That is such a glaring error that one would think they would make efforts to change their methodology to achieve more realistic results. Their approval numbers for Biden are reasonable, so why is the GCB so extreme. How are they sampling so many Biden disapprove/congressional Dem supporting people?

Is it worse than the Rasmussen R+10 from a while back? I don't think so. Just because it does not line up with your priors it does not make it wrong. That having been said D+9 is probably an outlier IMO but like all polls it should be thrown in the average.

Yes, it is. Nothing right now supports the idea of Dems even slightly winning the national popular vote.

I agree that D+9 doesn’t make sense, but Biden’s approvals have rebounded marginally in the last month.

If this is a rebound, I don't want to know what a falling out is.

That week or so where it went down to -6 was also around the time the Biden administration pressured the media to be even more favorable to him, and a bunch of the media polls that are usually better for him came out.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We still have 10 mnths left and we didn't win 40 seats on Jan 2018, contrary to what Rs think we gotten we were expected to gain 10 seats in 2018 it expanded on Oct 2018 to 40 seats in the H

Election Guy and Rs think the EC map reflects now, but it's the End results and we should at very least win the 304)234 blue wall because the Insurrectionists Commission and Ron Johnson praised Insurrectionists, is gonna drop a bombshell on Trump right before the Election

Biden went from 13 pts down to a tie against Trump

[2016]

Cook's David Wasserman: Republicans CLEAR Favourites to take House Control
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1476584838861889543
https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings

[BoiseBoy]

Trump has endorsed Mary Miller in Illinois, she will be running against Mike Bost in the new super safe IL-12.

[libertpaulian]

I'm actually more pessimistic about Kelly and Cortez-Masto than I am about Warnock and Hassan.

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/juliamanch/status/1478147578290184193?s=21

[wbrocks67]

Suffolk has GCB at D+2 but with way too many undecideds

Democrats 39%
Republicans 37%

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2022/01/04/gop-midterm-red-flag-bidens-leadership-challenge-usat-suffolk-poll/9078226002/?gnt-cfr=1

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/tsspangler/status/1478407772349898753?s=20

[Minnesota Mike]

Suffolk has GCB at D+2 but with way too many undecideds

Democrats 39%
Republicans 37%

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2022/01/04/gop-midterm-red-flag-bidens-leadership-challenge-usat-suffolk-poll/9078226002/?gnt-cfr=1

One poll, lots of undecided but a 10 point swing towards the Democrats since their last poll in November.

[Roll Roons]

CLF endorses 11 candidates as "Trailblazers": https://news.yahoo.com/top-outside-group-backing-house-115934976.html

Juan Ciscomani (AZ-06)
Esther King (IL-17)
Amanda Adkins (KS-03)
Bruce Poliquin (ME-02)
Ryan Zinke (MT-01)
Tom Kean Jr. (NJ-07)
Morgan Luttrell (TX-08)
Monica De La Cruz Hernandez (TX-15)
Wesley Hunt (TX-38)
Jen Kiggans (VA-02)
Derrick Van Orden (WI-03)

[wbrocks67]

I'm actually more pessimistic about Kelly and Cortez-Masto than I am about Warnock and Hassan.

I feel like Cortez-Masto is the most vulnerable bc NV seems a little up in the air and actually trended a bit right in 2020. AZ has been inching left and Kelly's not very divisive. Warnock and Hassan are def safer IMO

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

CLF endorses 11 candidates as "Trailblazers": https://news.yahoo.com/top-outside-group-backing-house-115934976.html

Juan Ciscomani (AZ-06)
Esther King (IL-17)
Amanda Adkins (KS-03)
Bruce Poliquin (ME-02)
Ryan Zinke (MT-01)
Tom Kean Jr. (NJ-07)
Morgan Luttrell (TX-08)
Monica De La Cruz Hernandez (TX-15)
Wesley Hunt (TX-38)
Jen Kiggans (VA-02)
Derrick Van Orden (WI-03)

What part of KS Supreme Court is 5-2 D do these people not understand?