2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/tsspangler/status/1478407772349898753?s=20

Hopefully he wins the primary he would be a lot weaker than Schuette

[Benjamin Frank]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1478853824303583233

[Roll Roons]

There's also a good chance OH-01 will become a blue district, so we'll probably get a very crowded Dem primary.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Has anyone else noticed that the Democrats have been doing pretty well in generic ballot polling recently? On January 5, 2018, the Dems were up 11 points on the RCP aggregate. The GOP is up by 1.6 right now. 538 had the Democrats up 10, but the Republicans are up by only 0.5 at the moment. The midterms are obviously still going to swing R, but it's probably not going to be some 2010 or 2014 redux like some doomers on here are heralding.

[Bootes Void]

Has anyone else noticed that the Democrats have been doing pretty well in generic ballot polling recently? On January 5, 2018, the Dems were up 11 points on the RCP aggregate. The GOP is up by 1.6 right now. 538 had the Democrats up 10, but the Republicans are up by only 0.5 at the moment. The midterms are obviously still going to swing R, but it's probably not going to be some 2010 or 2014 redux like some doomers on here are heralding.

That could be a good point but there is a possibility that republicans will overperform their current polling or gain in their polling lead as the year goes on

[SnowLabrador]

Has anyone else noticed that the Democrats have been doing pretty well in generic ballot polling recently? On January 5, 2018, the Dems were up 11 points on the RCP aggregate. The GOP is up by 1.6 right now. 538 had the Democrats up 10, but the Republicans are up by only 0.5 at the moment. The midterms are obviously still going to swing R, but it's probably not going to be some 2010 or 2014 redux like some doomers on here are heralding.

That could be a good point but there is a possibility that republicans will overperform their current polling or gain in their polling lead as the year goes on

This. No Democratic President has had an approval rating lower than Biden's. 2022 will be a red wave of Biblical proportions.

[Minnesota Mike]

Has anyone else noticed that the Democrats have been doing pretty well in generic ballot polling recently? On January 5, 2018, the Dems were up 11 points on the RCP aggregate. The GOP is up by 1.6 right now. 538 had the Democrats up 10, but the Republicans are up by only 0.5 at the moment. The midterms are obviously still going to swing R, but it's probably not going to be some 2010 or 2014 redux like some doomers on here are heralding.

That could be a good point but there is a possibility that republicans will overperform their current polling or gain in their polling lead as the year goes on

Or the possibility of the opposite. It's way to early to dismiss the possibility of any outcome and anyone predicting with certainty at this point is foolish.

[S019]

Has anyone else noticed that the Democrats have been doing pretty well in generic ballot polling recently? On January 5, 2018, the Dems were up 11 points on the RCP aggregate. The GOP is up by 1.6 right now. 538 had the Democrats up 10, but the Republicans are up by only 0.5 at the moment. The midterms are obviously still going to swing R, but it's probably not going to be some 2010 or 2014 redux like some doomers on here are heralding.

I suspect that Biden's approval will be more predictive ultimately, unless a chunk of that disapproval is coming from D leaning voters, I just don't see many Biden Disapprove/D Congress voters.

Has anyone else noticed that the Democrats have been doing pretty well in generic ballot polling recently? On January 5, 2018, the Dems were up 11 points on the RCP aggregate. The GOP is up by 1.6 right now. 538 had the Democrats up 10, but the Republicans are up by only 0.5 at the moment. The midterms are obviously still going to swing R, but it's probably not going to be some 2010 or 2014 redux like some doomers on here are heralding.

That could be a good point but there is a possibility that republicans will overperform their current polling or gain in their polling lead as the year goes on

This. No Democratic President has had an approval rating lower than Biden's. 2022 will be a red wave of Biblical proportions.

This is an exaggeration, but SnowLabrador has had better takes on 2022 than like 80% of the forum.

[BoiseBoy]

Has anyone else noticed that the Democrats have been doing pretty well in generic ballot polling recently? On January 5, 2018, the Dems were up 11 points on the RCP aggregate. The GOP is up by 1.6 right now. 538 had the Democrats up 10, but the Republicans are up by only 0.5 at the moment. The midterms are obviously still going to swing R, but it's probably not going to be some 2010 or 2014 redux like some doomers on here are heralding.

That could be a good point but there is a possibility that republicans will overperform their current polling or gain in their polling lead as the year goes on

This. No Democratic President has had an approval rating lower than Biden's. 2022 will be a red wave of Biblical proportions.

That's not even true. Obama, Clinton, and Carter have all had worse approvals at some point. The dooming shtick is getting pretty damn old at this point, honestly.

[wbrocks67]

Also it needs to be said again and again that even in a "red wave", the # of seats lost won't be as massive b/c of the loss of competitive seats.

[ElectionsGuy]

Has anyone else noticed that the Democrats have been doing pretty well in generic ballot polling recently? On January 5, 2018, the Dems were up 11 points on the RCP aggregate. The GOP is up by 1.6 right now. 538 had the Democrats up 10, but the Republicans are up by only 0.5 at the moment. The midterms are obviously still going to swing R, but it's probably not going to be some 2010 or 2014 redux like some doomers on here are heralding.

That could be a good point but there is a possibility that republicans will overperform their current polling or gain in their polling lead as the year goes on

Just a reminder that the generic ballot was D+1 when Glenn Youngkin (and every other statewide Republican) won narrowly in Virginia and Phil Murphy got 51% in New Jersey.

Also, Dems were "polling" at D+7 on the generic ballot in 2020, when they actually won by 3. This is going to be a historic polling miss if this average stays.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Has anyone else noticed that the Democrats have been doing pretty well in generic ballot polling recently? On January 5, 2018, the Dems were up 11 points on the RCP aggregate. The GOP is up by 1.6 right now. 538 had the Democrats up 10, but the Republicans are up by only 0.5 at the moment. The midterms are obviously still going to swing R, but it's probably not going to be some 2010 or 2014 redux like some doomers on here are heralding.

That could be a good point but there is a possibility that republicans will overperform their current polling or gain in their polling lead as the year goes on

Just a reminder that the generic ballot was D+1 when Glenn Youngkin (and every other statewide Republican) won narrowly in Virginia and Phil Murphy got 51% in New Jersey.

Also, Dems were "polling" at D+7 on the generic ballot in 2020, when they actually won by 3. This is going to be a historic polling miss if this average stays.

The insurrection Commission is dropping tibbids of negativity on the Rs so the Rs are gonna lose, everything isn't about VA we held onto Go ov for 8 yrs

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/Meagan_Flynn/status/1479163357223690247

[UncleSam]

Ya not gonna lie I just assume that GCB polls overestimate Ds by 5 or so. They used to be a pretty good snapshot but nowadays most GCB polling either polls US Adults or at best RVs, both of which are significantly more Democratic than LVs are or than the electorate has proven to be in recent years. When Ds next overperform their GCB average I will reconsider my stance.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Has anyone else noticed that the Democrats have been doing pretty well in generic ballot polling recently? On January 5, 2018, the Dems were up 11 points on the RCP aggregate. The GOP is up by 1.6 right now. 538 had the Democrats up 10, but the Republicans are up by only 0.5 at the moment. The midterms are obviously still going to swing R, but it's probably not going to be some 2010 or 2014 redux like some doomers on here are heralding.

That could be a good point but there is a possibility that republicans will overperform their current polling or gain in their polling lead as the year goes on

This. No Democratic President has had an approval rating lower than Biden's. 2022 will be a red wave of Biblical proportions.

Amen!

[Mr.Phips]

Has anyone else noticed that the Democrats have been doing pretty well in generic ballot polling recently? On January 5, 2018, the Dems were up 11 points on the RCP aggregate. The GOP is up by 1.6 right now. 538 had the Democrats up 10, but the Republicans are up by only 0.5 at the moment. The midterms are obviously still going to swing R, but it's probably not going to be some 2010 or 2014 redux like some doomers on here are heralding.

That could be a good point but there is a possibility that republicans will overperform their current polling or gain in their polling lead as the year goes on

This. No Democratic President has had an approval rating lower than Biden's. 2022 will be a red wave of Biblical proportions.

That's not even true. Obama, Clinton, and Carter have all had worse approvals at some point. The dooming shtick is getting pretty damn old at this point, honestly.

Obama had approvals as bad or worse for most of 2014.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/Meagan_Flynn/status/1479163357223690247

We deserve to lose

[Roll Roons]

Inside Elections came out with their full Senate ratings:
https://www.insideelections.com/ratings/senate/2022-senate-ratings-january-7-2022

AZ: Tossup
FL: Likely R
GA: Tossup
NH: Tilt D
NV: Tossup
NC: Lean R
PA: Tilt R
WI: Lean R

Everything else is safe for the incumbent party.

[UncleSam]

Inside Elections came out with their full Senate ratings:
https://www.insideelections.com/ratings/senate/2022-senate-ratings-january-7-2022

AZ: Tossup
FL: Likely R
GA: Tossup
NH: Tilt D
NV: Tossup
NC: Lean R
PA: Tilt R
WI: Lean R

Everything else is safe for the incumbent party.

This looks pretty reasonable, though I think I’d put AZ in the Tilt D category currently. GA maybe as well.

[Roll Roons]

Inside Elections came out with their full Senate ratings:
https://www.insideelections.com/ratings/senate/2022-senate-ratings-january-7-2022

AZ: Tossup
FL: Likely R
GA: Tossup
NH: Tilt D
NV: Tossup
NC: Lean R
PA: Tilt R
WI: Lean R

Everything else is safe for the incumbent party.

This looks pretty reasonable, though I think I’d put AZ in the Tilt D category currently. GA maybe as well.

Personally, I think PA should be Tossup as well.

[ElectionsGuy]

Inside Elections came out with their full Senate ratings:
https://www.insideelections.com/ratings/senate/2022-senate-ratings-january-7-2022

AZ: Tossup
FL: Likely R
GA: Tossup
NH: Tilt D
NV: Tossup
NC: Lean R
PA: Tilt R
WI: Lean R

Everything else is safe for the incumbent party.

I have my disagreements here, and these people tend to overestimate Democrats the worst historically, but I love that they're not even entertaining Ohio because of "open seat" or "Mandel weak candidate" or some other nonsensical conventional wisdom. That's refreshing.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

PA isn't Lean R

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Inside Elections came out with their full Senate ratings:
https://www.insideelections.com/ratings/senate/2022-senate-ratings-january-7-2022

AZ: Tossup
FL: Likely R
GA: Tossup
NH: Tilt D
NV: Tossup
NC: Lean R
PA: Tilt R
WI: Lean R

Everything else is safe for the incumbent party.

I would move Florida to Safe.. Wisconsin and North Carolina to Likely.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Inside Elections came out with their full Senate ratings:
https://www.insideelections.com/ratings/senate/2022-senate-ratings-january-7-2022

AZ: Tossup
FL: Likely R
GA: Tossup
NH: Tilt D
NV: Tossup
NC: Lean R
PA: Tilt R
WI: Lean R

Everything else is safe for the incumbent party.

I would move Florida to Safe.. Wisconsin and North Carolina to Likely.

.lol they're not moving states unt the state by state polls come out not Approval ratings, how can Rs justify WI being safe ant the last 3 polls that was polled had Johnson losing

They're not moving states until the real polls come out

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1480559532728274954

Hot take: Malinowski is more likely to lose than Golden.