2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1337014135574450181

Well, it worked well enough in 2020. If it ain't broke, don't fix it, that's what they say.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1365397940978737156

https://twitter.com/DJJudd/status/1365416103749509129

I remember when Anthony Gonzalez was supposed to be the frontrunner against Sherrod Brown in 2024. Not anymore; he's not surviving this primary unless there are like five people against him and they split the vote.

[SnowLabrador]

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2021-03-03/pelosi-political-fight-san-francisco-successor-congress

Article on the shadow battle for Pelosi's seat. I'm increasingly convinced that she'll retire in 2022.

She probably only retires if she expects Democrats to lose the House in 2022.

I mean, from this juncture, that looks considerably more likely than not.

[SnowLabrador]

Fundraising doesn't matter.

[SnowLabrador]

I didn't realize CO was doing new lines this year. So what will Boebert's district likely look like in 2022?

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1377604181733875727

She's a grifter. Boebert isn't losing.

[SnowLabrador]

PEM MANAGEMENT GENERIC BALLOT POLL (for a pro Bolton PAC) :

Republicans : 43%
Democrats : 40%

https://boltonsuperpac.com/pdfs/crostabs_04202021.pdf

This sounds like it would be a Republican-leaning poll. That said, not good, especially if polling underestimates the GOP yet again.

[SnowLabrador]

I'm going to try not to vomit, thanks.

[SnowLabrador]

Democrats surge into a ten point lead!
https://twitter.com/electsworld/status/1395746724879216646?s=21

A lot of the GOP's optimism comes from historical trends, not actual polling for 2022.

To be fair, polling is unreliable at best. Answering polls have become associated with being a Democrat.

[SnowLabrador]

Anyone else look at the crosstabs for the Qpac poll? They have indies as a statistical tie. That alone points more in the direction of D+4 (most public data like Pew Research has the national party edge as roughly D+3-5) than D+10. Surely we've all learned the dangers of labeling polls as skewed but I have a very hard time believing Ds have a double-digit lead when the poll only has them at 40% with indies.

Looking at crosstabs isn't necessarily reliable. For instance, I remember an IA-SEN 2020 poll that had a Reynolds +3 sample, and had Greenfield +3. The 2018 GOV numbers were a representative sample, but the 2020 SEN results were way off, as we all know.

That being said, I agree that Democrats almost certainly aren't up by 10 points.

[SnowLabrador]

Cook's ratings are garbage, they move everything to tossup right before the election.

[SnowLabrador]

Since 2022 will almost certainly be a red wave year, Kelly and Warnock are clear underdogs. Deal with it.

[SnowLabrador]

Since 2022 will almost certainly be a red wave year, Kelly and Warnock are clear underdogs. Deal with it.

Does Herschel Walker strike you as a powerhouse?

No, but we're polarized enough that candidate quality doesn't matter.

[SnowLabrador]

The GCB will probably be R+4 or R+5, then.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1419770441191858181

It's best to assume that almost all of the undecideds are Republican. So the GCB's probably tied, which means a strong GOP year.

[SnowLabrador]

The only thing that is likely to help the Dems now is a massive shift in abortion policy toward prohibition after a Supreme Court case.

That probably wouldn't help them much. 2016 and to a lesser extent 2020 showed that people don't vote based on abortion policy. For 2016 was the election to save Roe v. Wade, and Democrats dropped the ball, losing to Donald effing Trump of all people.

[SnowLabrador]

The only thing that is likely to help the Dems now is a massive shift in abortion policy toward prohibition after a Supreme Court case.

That probably wouldn't help them much. 2016 and to a lesser extent 2020 showed that people don't vote based on abortion policy. For 2016 was the election to save Roe v. Wade, and Democrats dropped the ball, losing to Donald effing Trump of all people.

I agree that it hasn’t helped Dems in the past, but I think abortion literally becoming illegal in ~20 states and Republicans proposing national Prohibitionist laws with the approval of the Supreme Court is a new scenario which will open wallets and get volunteers on the streets.

My prediction is that Roe v. Wade is overturned, the GOP wins big in 2022, the media spins it as Americans supporting abortion bans, and then we go full Gilead.

[SnowLabrador]

So like R+4? I guess 1/6 helped the Republicans; we're living in Weimar America.

[SnowLabrador]

So like R+4? I guess 1/6 helped the Republicans; we're living in Weimar America.

Democrats need to do a better job of playing hardball.  They control congress.  They should use the committee to embarrass the GOP right before the next election when investigating this.  The GOP had no qualms about doing it regarding Benghazi, which was not an issue that deserved national attention like 1/6 does.

My thoughts exactly!

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/decunningham2/status/1428404091936518145?s=19

Yikes. The Dems are in for a bloodbath.

[SnowLabrador]

The Democratic lead on the generic ballot surged to an incredible ten points in August.

https://twitter.com/EchelonInsights/status/1428808044251598858

Seems like an outlier. That said, normally the previous President doesn't insert themselves in the midterms as much.

[SnowLabrador]

"Forty-seven percent of registered voters prefer a Democrat-controlled Congress, while 46 percent want Republicans in charge. (That’s down from the Democrats’ 5-point advantage on this question in April.)"

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1277368?__twitter_impression=true

Well, democracy was fun while it lasted.

[SnowLabrador]

The 2022 election is the most important one in US history, and we're blowing it. Biden should be ashamed of himself.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1432816882432630788?s=20

What are the chances that OK-05 gets any bluer though?

Less than zero. They're going to make it redder.

[SnowLabrador]

Wasn't sure where else to put this, but former NY-19 GOP nominee Kyle Van De Water died at 41:
https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1435395111282745344

Suspected suicide.

RIP.

[SnowLabrador]

A high-turnout Republican wave wouldn't speak too kindly of our country, I know that much.