2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://mobile.twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1331825043903418369

It looks like Nina Turner has registered a domain for a congressional run if Fudge is chosen for USDA.

Gross

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article248870374.html


Donna Shalala considering another FL-27 bid

Gross

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://coloradosun.com/2021/02/03/kerry-donovan-launched-campaign-against-lauren-boebert/

Democratic State Senator Kerry Donovan running in CO-03.

She backed Warren in the primaries and initially called on the DSCC to reconsider its endorsement of Hickenlooper. I worry the party establishment will consider the mercenary more electable and push for a nomination that could damage the party's image on a much larger scale.

A marginally better shot at Boebert is not worth selling your soul for.

They’re not gonna back the mercenary  They *may* recruit a different credible candidate, but it’s more likely that the DCCC helped recruit Donovan as wave insurance.  

In any case, Boebert may not make it to 2022.  It looks like she may’ve been fraudulently over-billing her campaign for travel expenses (I.e. repeatedly reimbursing herself with thousands of dollars in campaign funds for travel she never did).  I’m sure this will be investigated by the DOJ and if they can prove the requisite intent (and given how many times she did this and how sloppy she was, that’s definitely not out of the question), she may end up getting indicted before 2022 is over.  

O/c, this might not pan out for any number of reasons, but it’ll worth keeping an eye in like 6-12 months.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

While she works as wave insurance, I do think Donovan is the wrong candidate for this district unless some of Boulder gets added in redistricting and am skeptical that she’ll perform much better than our candidate in 2020.  Donovan is fine as wave insurance, but I think State Senate President Leroy Garcia has a much better profile for the district in its current form.  Garcia is a Hispanic from Pueblo who has a conservative streak on gun control. 

That said, this is obviously all subject to change depending on how the district looks post-redistricting.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I didn't realize CO was doing new lines this year. So what will Boebert's district likely look like in 2022?

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1377604181733875727

She's a grifter. Boebert isn't losing.

Boebert is beatable with the right candidate and a little luck, but Donovan is very much the wrong type of Democrat to flip this district.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1380205641441058823

Huge news out of VA-02. Jen Kiggans is a State Senator in a Clinton district that no Republican has carried in a statewide race since.

Cooch carried it in 2013 and Gillespie did in 2014.  Frank Wagner represented this district for quite a while before Kiggans.  And Kiggans only won her first (and as of right now, only) term by the skin of her teeth.  Clinton carried it by less than 0.3%.  I'm not saying Kiggan's not a solid recruit - she may very well be - but I wouldn't call this huge news either.  It's not too different from any other time a party recruits a decent candidate for a competitive House district.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/sarahnferris/status/1422584061671968770

DCCC shared new polling that showed Dems falling behind Rs by **6 points** on a generic ballot in battleground districts.

Still, Maloney and his senior aides insist it's not over yet, urging Dems to make a major change to their messaging about Biden's ultra-popular agenda.

Yes, they’re about to lose the House because the agenda of this D trifecta is ultra-popular.

This a pretty disingenuous post.  Maloney said they needed to change the messaging regarding Biden’s agenda in order to turn things around, not that they were losing because of Biden’s agenda.  The consensus has always been they were likely to lose the House absent redistricting reform. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/juliegraceb/status/1429956048513798146

Anonymous source so take with a huge grain of salt.

Probably Gottheimer?

Gottheimer, Costa, and Schrader are the only ones who Dems actually have the direct power to mess with in redistricting, unless I'm mistaken.

Ed Case could probably be primaried by a non-white Democrat primaried with minimal difficulty and Cueller is already facing a serious primary challenge.  Gonzalez might be vulnerable to a primary challenge too.  DCCC could also cut off Murphy and Golden in 2022.  Ultimately though, the real enemy here is Biden.  It’s pretty clear imo that he’s on team Gottheimer even if he knows better than to explicitly say so in public.  This never even would have happened if Biden took a vocal, public stand in support of the two-track strategy and went to bat for it while this was starting to unfold.  

The idea that Biden can’t strong-arm nine congressmen and two Senators from his own party into towing the line on something this important if he were truly inclined to do so is beyond laughable.  Look what happened with the COVID stimulus bill.  Sinema hardly made a peep and Manchin did what he was told with minimal concessions.  

Either Biden is an incompetent buffoon or he’s deliberately being really passive as this unfolds b/c he opposes linking the bills (and wants a $1.5 - $2 trillion reconciliation bill).  Does anyone really believe Josh Gottheimer pulls a stunt like this on his own initiative?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Remington polled the generic congressional ballot in seven competitive US House districts:

https://punchbowl.news/wp-content/uploads/AAN-September-Polling-Memo.pdf

CA-10 (Harder) - 49% Republican/42% Democrat
FL-07 (Murphy) - 48% R/45% D
IA-03 (Axne) - 51% R/42% D
MI-08 (Slotkin) - 52% R/43% D
MI-11 (Stevens) - 51% R/45% D
VA-02 (Luria) - 49% R/46% D
WA-08 (Schrier) - 49% R/45% D
Average - 50% Republican/44% Democrat

Gen. E. Ric is definitely a strong candidate.  I wonder when s/he will announce his/her candidacy.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

John Yarmuth retiring:
https://twitter.com/RepJohnYarmuth/status/1447973858527563778?ref_src=twsrc%5Ego...

Increases the odds of the Louisville seat being chopped up

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I doubt GOP is really ahead in the GCB by 7 or 8.  A lot of this are marginal Dems not saying they will vote Dem due to the most recent drubbing in elections due to the embarrassment factor.  They will still mostly turnout in 2022 and vote Dem.

There is also, fairly or unfairly, enormous frustration with the perceived failure of Democrats to accomplish anything folks care about (no one remembers the stimulus checks and the public wrongly believes the economy has gotten worse under Biden).  In terms of the low hanging fruit, passing the even the House’s version BBB would go a really long way.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://nypost.com/2021/11/13/retirement-talk-growing-around-rep-jerry-nadler/

So Jerry Nadler apparently might retire, with outgoing NYC Comptroller and former Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer being the early frontrunner for the seat. Though I'm sure it will attract a very crowded primary.

Stringer wouldn’t win the primary, although I am sure the NY Post is rooting for him simply b/c his election would be an embarrassment to Democrats.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

How Park Slope will be represented by a Republican in Congress:
https://twitter.com/Thorongil16/status/1488603569947303939

Nicole would win SI by North Korea-esque margins.

Rose would beat him in the primary

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

(A-) rated Trafalgar Group*

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/COSA-National-Issues-Full-Report-0209.pdf
1,073   LV   

R 54%
D 42%

If the gold standard says R+12, that means a bigger red wave than 2010. Thanks, DNC, for choosing Biden over Bernie.

If Bernie had been nominated*, 2022 wouldn't be a red wave because it would be President Trump's six-year itch midterm. That's not better.

*A decision the voters make, not the DNC.

No that’d be much better.  Biden being President is destroying the Democrats, just like Obama.  I don’t think Democrats being a long term minority party below the Presidency is better than another four years of Trump.  If this election really is R+10 or worse, it will set the Democrats back at least a decade downballot when they can ill afford it (they are already quite weak in that respect).

Other than maybe a Supreme Court confirmation, what else will Dems have gained from Biden being President? 

The country not becoming a dictatorship during a second Trump term

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

(A-) rated Trafalgar Group*

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/COSA-National-Issues-Full-Report-0209.pdf
1,073   LV   

R 54%
D 42%

If the gold standard says R+12, that means a bigger red wave than 2010. Thanks, DNC, for choosing Biden over Bernie.

If Bernie had been nominated*, 2022 wouldn't be a red wave because it would be President Trump's six-year itch midterm. That's not better.

*A decision the voters make, not the DNC.

No that’d be much better.  Biden being President is destroying the Democrats, just like Obama.  I don’t think Democrats being a long term minority party below the Presidency is better than another four years of Trump.  If this election really is R+10 or worse, it will set the Democrats back at least a decade downballot when they can ill afford it (they are already quite weak in that respect).

Other than maybe a Supreme Court confirmation, what else will Dems have gained from Biden being President? 

The country not becoming a dictatorship during a second Trump term

Like that actually was going to happen.

Translation: “It couldn’t happen here”

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Yet another FAKE POLL coming out here:
https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1503087795006451712

FL-1 has a Partisan Voting Index (PVI) of R+30!

I mean, I'm sure this is an outlier, but it's not as silly as folks are acting either in the sense that we know how this result came about.  Gaetz is a well-known pedophile who committed statutory rape against a minor procured for him through a sex trafficking ring and is likely going to end up in federal prison when all is said and done.  Also, I doubt anyone knows who Jones is and party ID wasn't included (obviously it should've been).  

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Yet another FAKE POLL coming out here:
https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1503087795006451712

FL-1 has a Partisan Voting Index (PVI) of R+30!

I mean, I'm sure this is an outlier, but it's not as silly as folks are acting either in the sense that we know how this result came about.  Gaetz is a well-known pedophile who committed statutory rape against a minor procured for him through a sex trafficking ring and is likely going to end up in federal prison when all is said and done.  Also, I doubt anyone knows who Jones is and party ID wasn't included (obviously it should've been).  

That's not the Point! The Point is no way on Earth would Republicans lose an R +30 District in a Biden Midterm NO MATTER WHO THE GOP NOMINEE IS!

TALKING IN ALL CAPS IS REALLY DUMB!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Given that Rasmussen is terrible, they should still be giving results of like R+5 in a neutral environment. Not only is their GCB close but it keeps narrowing.

There was a point where I think reality was truly R +6 or 7 and November couldn’t come fast enough, but at this point we need time for a change of course. 52-54 dems would not be out of the question which is enough for extremist legislation

If it’s any consolation, polls in the individual races are almost definitely overestimating Dems in places like Arizona and Pennsylvania and Ohio. I still ultimately expect Democrats to win those races, but by small margins (except for Ohio because Democrats obviously aren’t flipping a Trump+8 state this year).

Ohio definitely. The Dems could have a great night and hold GA, NV, AZ, pick up PA, WI, NC while even gaining 5 House seats AND still lose Ohio by 4%. Ohio is a red state, I expect Biden +2 seats to stay blue long before Ohio flips.

Ohio flips before NC or a net gain in the House

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Given that Rasmussen is terrible, they should still be giving results of like R+5 in a neutral environment. Not only is their GCB close but it keeps narrowing.

There was a point where I think reality was truly R +6 or 7 and November couldn’t come fast enough, but at this point we need time for a change of course. 52-54 dems would not be out of the question which is enough for extremist legislation

If it’s any consolation, polls in the individual races are almost definitely overestimating Dems in places like Arizona and Pennsylvania and Ohio. I still ultimately expect Democrats to win those races, but by small margins (except for Ohio because Democrats obviously aren’t flipping a Trump+8 state this year).

Ohio definitely. The Dems could have a great night and hold GA, NV, AZ, pick up PA, WI, NC while even gaining 5 House seats AND still lose Ohio by 4%. Ohio is a red state, I expect Biden +2 seats to stay blue long before Ohio flips.

Ohio flips before NC or a net gain in the House

Ehh, polling has very much overestimated Dems in Ohio.

This is objectively false.  If you look at the Atlas final polling averages in statewide Ohio races from 2016 - 2020, they consistently overestimate the final Democratic vote share by about 1%-2%.  The issue is that in Ohio, the undecideds tend to break Republican (at least in statewide races).  In that respect, the Ohio polls can be quite useful.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Michigan being higher than CO is.... certainly something

Agreed. For what it's worth, I think Joe O'Dea has serious Youngkin potential this November.

Imagine actually believing this

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Don’t forget: polls that red avatars like are always strong data points. Polls that they dislike are anomalies with questionable quality

Whereas Republicans never cherry-pick polls

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Three millions of dollars being poured into Ohio in a race that Vance was never in any serious risk of losing is stunning.

Apparently the SLF has a different evaluation of the race than you do.

Internal polling is most of the time less accurate than public polling. Mitch McConnell does not have much more useful intel on this race than we do.

In the case of Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, and other former swing states that have trended quickly, he might be tethered to a time when Ohio was close to the national environment, not the current reality when it's significantly to the right of it. As it stands, Vance will probably win from partisans coming home in the last few months. But McConnell might think that wouldn't be a factor if he doesn't hold Ohio as a strong lean-R state at worst.

Publicly released internals =/= private internal polling

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It would truly be hilarious if Malinowski was able to win again and titanium R candidate Keane lost twice in a row.

Honestly, I think we’re on track for that

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I’m not sure what’s going on in AZ-2, but something definitely is imo.  Between that Republican internal showing (IIRC) Crane up by only like 1%, the NRCC dumping money on this district, and now this, it’s clear this race is more competitive than expected.  That said, I kinda wonder what might account for this as this doesn’t seem like a place where Dobbs would cause an especially strong shift and while O’Halleran has run many a competitive race, he always struck me as a pretty generic/unremarkable backbencher.  Thoughts?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I love how everyone just decides that the most recent poll that they’ve seen is the most accurate, even if it’s only a day or two after another poll

Like just look at the reaction to Wisconsin polling

Barnes+2 = Democrats may pull this off, it’s a tossup!

Johnson+1 = Titanium Ron Jon can’t be beaten… Democrats are fools for investing in this race.

That’s a longstanding problem with Atlas political analysis in general tbh.