2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

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Before Next Term Even Begins, Steny Hoyer Gets Democratic Primary Challenger

Colin Byrd, the 28-year-old mayor of Greenbelt, declared his intentions to challenge the veteran lawmaker on Facebook Monday.

In an interview, Byrd cast himself as a progressive alternative to the 81-year-old House majority leader.

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https://twitter.com/HarleyRouda/status/1349472804731723779?s=20

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https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1351908391766159365?s=20

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Cue the memes.

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1354412444144332804?s=20

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https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1361663137179709440?s=20

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A very interesting profile for a candidate in this district, though she's probably betting on a very favorable redistricting.

https://twitter.com/Britt4Congress/status/1362407321121423362?s=20

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Shalala and Mucarsel-Powell still both considering rematches, Shalala says she'll decide around October.

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The 'law-and-order outlaw', who almost won the Republican primary in 2020, is running again for (if redistricting allows) Matt Cartwright's seat.

This doesn't compare to the 'Clancy Brown's Dan Crenshaw' ad, but it's something.

https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1420756846701211654

Nothing says "man of the people" like a slickly produced announcement video that probably cost at least half a million dollars even before the consulting firm's profit.

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How Quinnipiac maintains its A rating is beyond me..

The 538 pollster ratings are based almost entirely on methodology and not on accuracy/track record.

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*SNIP*

LOL, Biden down -11 in a state he lost by 2. Sure Jan.

And simultaneously mask mandates up by 19?

Junk it!

It’s only August 2021 and we’ve already entered that stage? Pretty remarkable.

We all know that mask mandates are much more partisan than this. There is not going to be a 30-point gap.

Never underestimate the Democratic party's ability to be fooled into a fight they've already won.

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https://twitter.com/juliegraceb/status/1429956048513798146

Anonymous source so take with a huge grain of salt.

Probably Gottheimer?

Gottheimer, Costa, and Schrader are the only ones who Dems actually have the direct power to mess with in redistricting, unless I'm mistaken.

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https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1432816882432630788?s=20

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Axne +4 against Zach Nunn in a Nunn internal - caveat that this poll is of the old district lines.

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1438488649830653957?s=20

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https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1445009354801958917?s=20

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Former Democratic state Rep. Melanie Wright has announced her campaign for Indiana’s 5th District.

Wright served three terms in the state House and has a compelling electoral history:
Narrowly lost her first run in 2012 for the seat, 51/49, as Romney carried it 56/42.
Narrowly won in 2014, 51/49, against the incumbent who defeated her in 2012. 
Re-elected in 2016, 53/47, as her district voted for Trump, 64/31, and Todd Young, 56/38.
Re-elected in 2018, 51/49, as her district voted for Mike Braun, 55/39.
Defeated in 2020, 55/45, as her district voted for Trump, 65/33.

IN-05 was recently redistricted into a 57/41 Trump seat to protect Spartz. Wright will certainly face an uphill battle and is not favored, but is probably the best possible D recruit for the seat.

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Getting in now to raise money, will probably switch districts after the redraw.

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1452961592547713030?s=20

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Huge opening for Andrew Yang’s Forward Party

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1458606105848954883?s=21

or whatever it’s called

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https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1458458123488931850

A star Republican congressional candidate in Texas was accused last month by her estranged husband in court documents of “cruel and aggressive conduct” toward his 14-year-old daughter, including verbal abuse and pinching the child to stop her from crying.

It was a bit surprising to see McCarthy/the GOP apparatus line up behind her regardless of the validity of these claims - she was a nobody candidate who raised little money and mostly rode Trump's coattails against a Democrat who didn't take the race seriously. Should have done a far more thorough vet.

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Prettymuch the only good news for Democrats at the current moment is that this round of redistricting will leave them with far more districts able to withstand an R wave than 2010.

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Two big ones:

https://twitter.com/MaxRose4NY/status/1467856353519550471?s=20

https://twitter.com/mollyforvermont/status/1467845546530459659?s=20

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I would advise against using 538’s generic ballot as any sort of scientific measure. By my count, YouGov and Morning Consult make up 11 out of their 24 polls since the beginning of December, both of which hackishly show an inflexible D+4 result without ever showing a Biden approval above 45%. Even if these magical Biden disapproving/generic D approving voters do exist and are democrats, good luck getting them to show up for moderate swing districts D’s in an off year cycle when they don’t even like the party’s leader. At some point, it’s just wishing a blue wave into existence like 2020 and then wondering why institutions are distrusted.

You might be right, but also worth considering the possibility that we're now in a period that will invariably be dominated by high-turnout, partisanship-driven competitive elections in which more volatile variables will exert less (though still some) influence, not dissimilar to the late 1800's. Consistent, margin-of-error leads like this despite notable movement on other questions a strong sign of that.

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https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1490722959174033415?s=20&t=ITYsve6...

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Mr. Pollster I hope you are not actually buying that lol.

Please, Mr. Pollster is my dad.

And yes, I can definitely buy that Mathis will get 42%.

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Am hearing rumors that Ted Deutch will be announcing his retirement shortly.

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https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1572223060706758659

Not a poll itself, but some insight into nonresponse issues in the 2020 polling and some indication that we are not seeing nearly the same level of that problem this cycle

We retroactively found that in 2020, likely Democrats according to voter file models (don't remember if we specified white or not) were 23% more likely to answer polls than likely Republicans on average and some states reached as high as 30%. We're also seeing that delta shrink considerably this year, though a delta does still exist. I don't remember what the delta between likely Democrats and likely independents was (there was one, but significantly smaller).