2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Pink Panther]

Marie Newman under investigation by the House Ethics Committee for possibly bribing a primary opponent to stay out: https://www.businessinsider.com/marie-newman-bribe-primary-opponent-office-congressional-ethics-2022-1

An Illinois Democrat being corrupt? I've never heard of such a thing! 

This is Chicagoland. It's one of the qualifications to be a major politician here.

[Roll Roons]

Marie Newman under investigation by the House Ethics Committee for possibly bribing a primary opponent to stay out: https://www.businessinsider.com/marie-newman-bribe-primary-opponent-office-congressional-ethics-2022-1

An Illinois Democrat being corrupt? I've never heard of such a thing! 

This is Chicagoland. It's one of the qualifications to be a major politician here.

It's literally only the Democrats. Never heard a hint of corruption from Bob Dold, Mark Kirk or John Porter.

[Boobs]

Marie Newman under investigation by the House Ethics Committee for possibly bribing a primary opponent to stay out: https://www.businessinsider.com/marie-newman-bribe-primary-opponent-office-congressional-ethics-2022-1

An Illinois Democrat being corrupt? I've never heard of such a thing! 

This is Chicagoland. It's one of the qualifications to be a major politician here.

It's literally only the Democrats. Never heard a hint of corruption from Bob Dold, Mark Kirk or John Porter.

Never a hint of wrongdoing from Rauner, Hastert, or George Ryan either! Truly imitable figures.

[Roll Roons]

Marie Newman under investigation by the House Ethics Committee for possibly bribing a primary opponent to stay out: https://www.businessinsider.com/marie-newman-bribe-primary-opponent-office-congressional-ethics-2022-1

An Illinois Democrat being corrupt? I've never heard of such a thing! 

This is Chicagoland. It's one of the qualifications to be a major politician here.

It's literally only the Democrats. Never heard a hint of corruption from Bob Dold, Mark Kirk or John Porter.

Never a hint of wrongdoing from Rauner, Hastert, or George Ryan either! Truly imitable figures.

TBF, Rauner wasn't corrupt. He was just incompetent. Point taken on the other two.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GCB is D's plus 1, that Traggy R plus 13 won't happen

[Boobs]

Marie Newman under investigation by the House Ethics Committee for possibly bribing a primary opponent to stay out: https://www.businessinsider.com/marie-newman-bribe-primary-opponent-office-congressional-ethics-2022-1

An Illinois Democrat being corrupt? I've never heard of such a thing! 

This is Chicagoland. It's one of the qualifications to be a major politician here.

It's literally only the Democrats. Never heard a hint of corruption from Bob Dold, Mark Kirk or John Porter.

Never a hint of wrongdoing from Rauner, Hastert, or George Ryan either! Truly imitable figures.

TBF, Rauner wasn't corrupt. He was just incompetent.

Buying his daughter’s way into a public magnet school is just good parenting, then? Mafia-like tactics to intimidate reporters?

[2016]

GCB Polls are now starting to match up more with Bidens Job Approval.

InsiderAdvantage R 49 / D 42

Havard-Harris R 53 / D 47

[SnowLabrador]

GCB Polls are now starting to match up more with Bidens Job Approval.

InsiderAdvantage R 49 / D 42

Havard-Harris R 53 / D 47

To be expected, sadly.

[Ferguson97]

GCB Polls are now starting to match up more with Bidens Job Approval.

InsiderAdvantage R 49 / D 42

Havard-Harris R 53 / D 47

To be expected, sadly.

R+6/7 is honestly not that bad considering the environment. Still, puts Dems in a position of losing like 40 house seats.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

GCB Polls are now starting to match up more with Bidens Job Approval.

InsiderAdvantage R 49 / D 42

Havard-Harris R 53 / D 47

To be expected, sadly.

R+6/7 is honestly not that bad considering the environment. Still, puts Dems in a position of losing like 40 house seats.

Not even, especially considering the lack of competitive districts thanks to all the gerrymandering.

[Ferguson97]

GCB Polls are now starting to match up more with Bidens Job Approval.

InsiderAdvantage R 49 / D 42

Havard-Harris R 53 / D 47

To be expected, sadly.

R+6/7 is honestly not that bad considering the environment. Still, puts Dems in a position of losing like 40 house seats.

Not even, especially considering the lack of competitive districts thanks to all the gerrymandering.

Is there some sort of program to estimate the number of seats lost assuming a uniform shift of X?

[Mr.Phips]

GCB Polls are now starting to match up more with Bidens Job Approval.

InsiderAdvantage R 49 / D 42

Havard-Harris R 53 / D 47

To be expected, sadly.

R+6/7 is honestly not that bad considering the environment. Still, puts Dems in a position of losing like 40 house seats.

Probably means that Dems are at 2010/2014 levels in the House.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I seriously doubt that RS are plus 6 just like that Traggy plus13 number

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Furthermore, polls are snap shots in time it's not over till the actual votes are counted not bye some poll


That's why I make my prediction preference the way I want because you never know what will happen it's VBM not same day voting. Same day voting is very predictable


Whom would of thought it was 80/75 M it can be 85/75 M D's you never know and a blue wave happens

It was predicted 65/62 M in 2020

[Unelectable Bystander]

GCB Polls are now starting to match up more with Bidens Job Approval.

InsiderAdvantage R 49 / D 42

Havard-Harris R 53 / D 47

To be expected, sadly.

R+6/7 is honestly not that bad considering the environment. Still, puts Dems in a position of losing like 40 house seats.

Not even, especially considering the lack of competitive districts thanks to all the gerrymandering.

This is probably true and also speaks to how much this board is over-emphasizing the debate on whether or not it will be a shellacking worse than 2010. It doesn’t need to be and it doesn’t even really matter. 290 seats would be functionally the same as 225 seats while Biden is president, and most of those blue districts would just flip back in 2024 anyways. There are really only a few important questions this cycle:
1. Will the popular vote be at least R+3 or 4? At this point, the big 4 D senate seats would probably all flip and all GOP seats are gone locking in 54-46 majority AND the GOP has a chance to accelerate trends and flip some current blue future red seats (west central Illinois, northwest Indiana). These are the only incremental house seats that matter because they’ll likely be gone for good once they flip
2. Will the popular vote be at least roughly even, at which point the GOP flips at least one chamber (particularly the senate)?

Everything else is fairly irrelevant

[2016]

New Monmouth Poll has Biden at 38/55 JA and Republicans leading the Generic Ballot 51/43.

That looks more accurate tbh compared to those "Trashy" Polls from YouGov and Morning Consult.

[Matty]

A GOP +8 result would probably net them another OC seat

[MT Treasurer]

Somehow I don’t think Mark Kelly is ahead in an environment in which the last three GCB polls have been R+6, R+7, and R+8. Or that Gretchen Whitmer is leading by 5-10 points. Or that Pritzker and Walz will outperform their margins from a Democratic tidal wave in 2022.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Marie Newman under investigation by the House Ethics Committee for possibly bribing a primary opponent to stay out: https://www.businessinsider.com/marie-newman-bribe-primary-opponent-office-congressional-ethics-2022-1

An Illinois Democrat being corrupt? I've never heard of such a thing! 

This is Chicagoland. It's one of the qualifications to be a major politician here.

It's literally only the Democrats. Never heard a hint of corruption from Bob Dold, Mark Kirk or John Porter.

George Ryan’s scandal had actual casualties. You can’t just name three honest men (Dick Durbin, Lane Evans, Paul Simon, only vote for rest of Illinois Dems and you’re good)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Somehow I don’t think Mark Kelly is ahead in an environment in which the last three GCB polls have been R+6, R+7, and R+8. Or that Gretchen Whitmer is leading by 5-10 points. Or that Pritzker and Walz will outperform their margins from a Democratic tidal wave in 2022.

It's not R +8 Environment other polls have had D's ahead c'mon with these GCB R plus 8 polls the only good yr was 2014 in R plus 5 and you guys lost NH and won CO and IL GOVS

[Roll Roons]

Given some recent news that's, uh, interesting, I feel like we should be on the lookout for a possible primary in FL-01. It got no attention because the district is Safe R, but Gaetz was one of the few Republican House incumbents who underperformed Trump in his district.

I get the impression that he's not particularly well-liked by others in DC and Florida.

[Roll Roons]

Guess who's back, back again: https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2022/01/31/james-launches-bid-congress-macomb-swing-district/9281370002/

[SnowLabrador]

I'm so sick of hearing about John James.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They don't have anyone else in MI Craig and James and Larry Elder in CA, Newsom can get maybe 70 percent of the vote in CA this time a sweep alot of D's into the H in California,

It remains to be seen if Walker gets leverage but the Rs are cheating in GA, on Voter Suppression, that's why NC and LA are wave insurance, and it's a brand new ballgame in NC with Beasley she is a judge, is with a SCOTUS Blk female appointee and the last internal poll had her down 42/40 that's very close

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/claudiatenney/status/1488196685817913386