COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Gass3268]

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/09/biden-to-detail-new-six-pronged-plan-to-increase-us-covid-vaccination-rates-fight-virus.html?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=news_tab&utm_content=algorithm


This article says

“Biden is also expected to ask the U.S. Department of Labor to issue a rule that employers with more than 100 employees must require vaccines or testing, according to NBC News.”

Does that mean exactly what it sounds like? Any business with over 100 employees has to require vaccines/regular testing now?  So…not just federal employees?


And I wonder if this would apply to local county governments…

An OSHA regulation would take precedent.

[Mr. Morden]

Here's the plan:

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/21060150-embargoed-path-out-of-the-pandemic-potus-covid-19-action-plan-1

The Department of Labor’s Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) is developing a rule that will require all employers with 100 or more employees to ensure their workforce is fully vaccinated or require any workers who remain unvaccinated to produce a negative test result on at least a weekly basis before coming to work. OSHA will issue an Emergency Temporary Standard (ETS) to implement this requirement. This requirement will impact over 80 million workers in private sector businesses with 100+ employees.

[Pericles]

Fauci says cases need to be 10,000 or less for pandemic to be under control

At least he's setting a goal, but I don't see how it's achievable for the US. Delta is too contagious. And what is the point of 10,000 specifically? Based on rough calculations that would mean around 30,000 deaths a year, but cases and deaths could probably be much higher than that without denying everyone adequate treatment from the healthcare system. The current death rate is too high though, since it could lead to nearly 500,000 annual deaths and is placing unacceptable stress on healthcare systems-which isn't helped by the fact that the wave isn't evenly spread across the US.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/variety/status/1436101428410413067?s=21

[Meclazine for Israel]

If Pfizer watered down their vaccine doses just to minimize what are already quite mild side effects, then that's incredibly disturbing in my opinion. If that's true then I'm especially not eager to give them the benefit of the doubt on booster shots, and if a third shot becomes necessary I'd much rather get it from Moderna or J&J if that's safe.

Changing vaccine and vaccine type will be encouraged as it provides wider coverage.

I will be trying to get Pfizer first (double dose) starting tomorrow and after those, 6 months later, boosting with Moderna.

The best vaccination response will be 4-6 year olds who have never had the flu before getting the actual COVId virus.

Their immune system will be written around that as their strongest and most lasting  immunity.

Your earliest immune responses to these things in life are your best.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Moderna mafia represent!

Reported deaths per 1 million pop using the 2020 Census instead of 2019 estimates (which Worldometer and CDC are still using)

1--New Jersey      2882
2--Mississippi       2755
3--New York         2705
4--Arizona            2606
5--Louisiana         2601
6--Massachusetts  2588
7--Rhode Island    2515
8--Alabama          2389
9--South Dakota   2321
10--Connecticut    2310  
11--Arkansas        2241

An update:

1--Mississippi       2968
2--New Jersey      2907
3--Louisiana         2773
4--New York         2725
5--Arizona            2668
6--Massachusetts  2605
7--Rhode Island    2536
8--Alabama           2468
9--Arkansas          2371
10--South Dakota  2342
11--Connecticut     2328
12--Pennsylvania   2193
13--Georgia           2184
14--Florida            2181
15--Indiana           2168
16--New Mexico     2161
17--Michigan         2159
18--South Carolina 2148
19--Nevada           2138
20--Illinois            2089
21--Oklahoma       2073
22--Texas              2031
National                2025
23--North Dakota   2012
24--Tennessee       1998

Oklahoma and Texas have enough momentum to knock Nevada and Illinois out of the top 20.  GA and FL will pass PA this week.  TN is the only state below the national avg that will likely move above it

Given trajectory of cases/deaths and backlog to CDC I think it is highly likely Florida will be around 51,000 a month from now, and hence above CT. There are clearly 600-900 missing August deaths, and 1200-1500 from September even if no one further dies. Then maybe an average of 2000-3000 for the rest of the month.

I really don't want to sound like I'm happy that another state exceeded mine finally, but if it does end up negating the "New Jersey and New York per capita deaths means Republican Governors can do whatever they want" talking point, I will solemnly accept it.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/variety/status/1436101428410413067?s=21

More of this please

[emailking]

1900 deaths today. A wave record by a lot.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The 7-day average of new cases in the U.S. is on a pretty clear downward slope again. Today was the lowest since Aug. 21.

In 8 days, it's fallen from 163,006 to 147,207.

[Hammy]

The 7-day average of new cases in the U.S. is on a pretty clear downward slope again. Today was the lowest since Aug. 21.

In 8 days, it's fallen from 163,006 to 147,207.

There does appear to be a peak on September 1, but I'd give it a few weeks to see if there's a spike from labor day. Otherwise it's pretty clear that it's slowly going down, held back by a few states that are still on the rise.

Except for Labor Day messing with the averages (one day where there were only four days of reported cases) Georgia's seven day average has dropped every day this month.

[Frodo]

'Killing two birds with one stone' comes immediately to mind here:

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1435991401506947077

[emailking]

Oh that would be awesome!

[Calthrina950]

'Killing two birds with one stone' comes immediately to mind here:

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1435991401506947077

A combined coronavirus/flu vaccine would make things much easier and much more accessible for the public at large.

[Gass3268]

'Killing two birds with one stone' comes immediately to mind here:

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1435991401506947077

A combined coronavirus/flux vaccine would make things much easier and much more accessible for the public at large.

It's also planned to include a RSV booster.

https://twitter.com/moderna_tx/status/1435978825377136641?s=20

[Skill and Chance]

The 7-day average of new cases in the U.S. is on a pretty clear downward slope again. Today was the lowest since Aug. 21.

In 8 days, it's fallen from 163,006 to 147,207.

There does appear to be a peak on September 1, but I'd give it a few weeks to see if there's a spike from labor day. Otherwise it's pretty clear that it's slowly going down, held back by a few states that are still on the rise.

Except for Labor Day messing with the averages (one day where there were only four days of reported cases) Georgia's seven day average has dropped every day this month.

Importantly, the COVID "wall" in the eastern, urbanized half of VA continues to hold.  That's encouraging for the North in the fall.  Remember, VA and FL vaccination rates are comparable on paper.

[Not Me, Us]

The 7-day average of new cases in the U.S. is on a pretty clear downward slope again. Today was the lowest since Aug. 21.

In 8 days, it's fallen from 163,006 to 147,207.

There does appear to be a peak on September 1, but I'd give it a few weeks to see if there's a spike from labor day. Otherwise it's pretty clear that it's slowly going down, held back by a few states that are still on the rise.

Except for Labor Day messing with the averages (one day where there were only four days of reported cases) Georgia's seven day average has dropped every day this month.

Importantly, the COVID "wall" in the eastern, urbanized half of VA continues to hold.  That's encouraging for the North in the fall.  Remember, VA and FL vaccination rates are comparable on paper.

While that's a good sign for high vaxx areas in the north, the Midwest is going to be hit hard. PA's cases are rising a lot, and that's with decent vaxx %. Ohio, Wisconsin, and Michigan especially are going to fair badly, I think.

[jamestroll]

But despite all my rhetoric the last year the United states will have to face the fact it will have the most consumerism oriented economy of any developed country...

Anyone else have that thought?

Other developed economies have adjusted but may live in fear of covid forever.

[_.]

Florida Data Release came out!

Great news inside, with positivity rates continuing to fall statewide.

Cumulative Confirmed Cases: 3,409,165

AUG 12 - 2,876,072 (+151,436 New Weekly, +5.56%) (20.0% Positivity Rate)
AUG 19 - 3,027,503 (+150,225 New Weekly, +5.22%) (20.4% Positivity Rate)
AUG 26 - 3,179,361 (+151,853 New Weekly, +5.02%) (17.2% Positivity Rate)
SEP 03 - 3,309,153 (+129,792 New Weekly, +4.08%) (15.4% Positivity Rate)
SEP 10 - 3,409,165 (+100,012 New Weekly, +3.02%) (13.5% Positivity Rate)

Cumulative Confirmed Deaths: 48,772

As for deaths, I'll just show you all the graph, and not the actual numbers, because the numbers, they just don't add up. There's a lack of data here, so older deaths are constantly being added onto the logs, and not all the newer deaths are here yet.

Looks like deaths are peaking

Image Link

[_.]

Maps directly comparing last week's preliminary county positivity rates with this week's preliminary positivity rates county-by-county in the state of Florida:

Image Link AUG 27 - SEP 02

Image Link SEP 03 - SEP 09


Big counties with dropping positivity rates over the past week!

8.1% to 6.5% Miami-Dade County
10.5% to 9.4% Broward County
12.6% to 11.6% Palm Beach County
17.4% to 16.5% Hillsborough County
13.4% to 12.6% Orange County
13.8% to 12.7% Duval County
16.3% to 14.7% Pinellas County


Funnily Leon & Alachua, which mere weeks ago had the lowest positivity rates in the state, are stagnating and have seen modest increases over the past weeks. Pasco and Hernando are two other counties which have stagnated. Other than that the drop's relatively uniform.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Okaloosa County really jumps out on that map.

[Lief 🗽]

The actual job creators strongly support President Biden in the fight against the virus. Don’t listen to the right-wing lies from anti-business, anti-jobs GOP politicians.
https://twitter.com/crampell/status/1436460816669319198?s=21

[icemanj]

The 7-day average of new cases in the U.S. is on a pretty clear downward slope again. Today was the lowest since Aug. 21.

In 8 days, it's fallen from 163,006 to 147,207.

There does appear to be a peak on September 1, but I'd give it a few weeks to see if there's a spike from labor day. Otherwise it's pretty clear that it's slowly going down, held back by a few states that are still on the rise.

Except for Labor Day messing with the averages (one day where there were only four days of reported cases) Georgia's seven day average has dropped every day this month.

Importantly, the COVID "wall" in the eastern, urbanized half of VA continues to hold.  That's encouraging for the North in the fall.  Remember, VA and FL vaccination rates are comparable on paper.

While that's a good sign for high vaxx areas in the north, the Midwest is going to be hit hard. PA's cases are rising a lot, and that's with decent vaxx %. Ohio, Wisconsin, and Michigan especially are going to fair badly, I think.

don't forget Indiana, where our vax rate is comparable to Alabama and Tennessee.

[Hammy]

The 7-day average of new cases in the U.S. is on a pretty clear downward slope again. Today was the lowest since Aug. 21.

In 8 days, it's fallen from 163,006 to 147,207.

There does appear to be a peak on September 1, but I'd give it a few weeks to see if there's a spike from labor day. Otherwise it's pretty clear that it's slowly going down, held back by a few states that are still on the rise.

Except for Labor Day messing with the averages (one day where there were only four days of reported cases) Georgia's seven day average has dropped every day this month.

Importantly, the COVID "wall" in the eastern, urbanized half of VA continues to hold.  That's encouraging for the North in the fall.  Remember, VA and FL vaccination rates are comparable on paper.

While that's a good sign for high vaxx areas in the north, the Midwest is going to be hit hard. PA's cases are rising a lot, and that's with decent vaxx %. Ohio, Wisconsin, and Michigan especially are going to fair badly, I think.

PA seems to have a ton of low-rate counties in the middle of the state, that are on par with southern states--some still in the 40% range.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Got my first Pfizer shot today.

Although there is no COVID-19 in Western Australia still glad to get this process underway.

Arm is a bit sore, but apart from that, feeling fine.

21 days until my 2nd shot.

[ProudModerate2]

I found this video interesting.

French president took a gamble to increase vaccinations. It worked.

Click here to watch ... https://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2021/09/10/france-vaccinations-emmanuel-macron-bell-pkg-newday-vpx.cnn