COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

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May 15, 2021 Vaccination Update

Percentage of population fully vaccinated according to CDC

National Average: 36.7%

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CT: 47.6%
DE: 38.8%
DC: 38.2%
FL: 35.4%
HI: 43.1%
IN: 32.1%
LA: 29.5%
MD: 41.9%
MA: 46.0%
MS: 25.2%
NH: 35.4%
NJ: 43.8%
PR: 31.0%
RI: 45.5%
VT: 46.1%
WV: 32.8%

Some states are too small or oddly shaped to have numbers fit properly on them, so they're listed above


One thing that really strikes me is the difference between New Hampshire, with a percentage of fully vaccinated people at 35.4% (below the national average), and every other New England state, which are all above 45.0% and rank together as being the top 5 in the nation. Why is this? "Live free or die" taken too literally?

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May 16, 2021 Vaccination Update

Percentage of population fully vaccinated according to CDC

National Average: 37.1% (+0.4% from yesterday)

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CT: 48.2%
DE: 39.2%
DC: 39.7%
FL: 35.4%
HI: 43.1%
IN: 32.4%
LA: 29.5%
MD: 42.3%
MA: 46.7%
MS: 25.8%
NH: 55.7%
NJ: 44.2%
PR: 31.5%
RI: 46.4%
VT: 47.4%
WV: 32.8%

Some states are too small or oddly shaped to have numbers fit properly on them, so they're listed above


Updates

New Hampshire becomes the first U.S. state to report more than 50% of its population being fully vaccinated! (I guess some data backlog just got cleared)

Washington state surpasses the milestone of having 40% of its population fully vaccinated

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I can't believe the vaccination rate in Kentucky is so low. I think every adult I know in Kentucky is fully vaccinated, and has been for a month.

Bottom-left corner checks out

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-SNIP-

I decided to repeat Adam Griffin's exercise linked above using data from June 04, 2021.

As of June 04, 51.3% of Americans have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccination while 41.6% of Americans are fully vaccinated. This shows a gap of 9.7%.

As Adam Griffin said, "In my opinion (at least in most states' situations), a large & growing gap between the 2 groups is still good, as this indicates there is still high demand for vaccination and lots of people are continuing to get their first shots."

Alright so these are the gaps by state:

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States with data text too small to fit on the map:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

HI: +19.2%
PR: +13.6%
VT: +13.4%
MA: +12.2%
NJ: +11.4%
DE: +11.3%
DC: +10.6%
NH: +10.1%
FL: +10.0%
CT: +9.7%
MD: +9.0%
RI: +8.9%

States which have an above-average gap between the fully vaccinated population and the one-dose population are in blue and states which have a below-average gap between the fully vaccinated population and the one-dose population are in red (Sorry for the politically charged map but you see this scheme is color-blind friendly). States exactly at the average (CT) are in white.

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Florida just became the 22nd state where 50% or more of the population has received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccination! 💪💪💪

Joining these states (as well as territories):

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-SNIP-

-SNIP-

I repeated Adam Griffin's exercise for the second time using data from July 04, 2021.

As of July 04, 54.9% of Americans have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccination while 47.4% of Americans are fully vaccinated. This shows a gap of 7.5%.

As Adam Griffin said, "In my opinion (at least in most states' situations), a large & growing gap between the 2 groups is still good, as this indicates there is still high demand for vaccination and lots of people are continuing to get their first shots."

Alright so these are the gaps by state:

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States with data text too small to fit on the map:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

HI: +17.9%
PR: +9.2%
DC: +8.8%
MA: +8.7%
VT: +8.2%
DE: +8.1%
FL: +7.8%
NJ: +7.6%
CT: +6.3%
NH: +6.2%
MD: +5.8%
RI: +5.6%

States which have an above-average gap between the fully vaccinated population and the one-dose population are in blue and states which have a below-average gap between the fully vaccinated population and the one-dose population are in red (Sorry for the politically charged map but you see this scheme is color-blind friendly).

Interesting patterns abound.

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It's August 06, 2021 and

50.0% of the total U.S. Population is fully vaccinated!

INCLUDING more than half the population of these states and territories:

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And getting close in these states:

49.9% - Iowa
49.9% - Nebraska
49.4% - Florida
49.1% - Michigan
49.0% - Illinois

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It's August 06, 2021 and

50.0% of the total U.S. Population is fully vaccinated!

INCLUDING more than half the population of these states and territories:

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And getting close in these states:

49.9% - Iowa
49.9% - Nebraska
49.4% - Florida
49.1% - Michigan
49.0% - Illinois

The trend is clearly partisan (albeit not for long given the above list) but interesting Wisconsin gets there before Illinois.

Perhaps it has something to do with higher social trust and trust in government in Wisconsin, as opposed to a state like Illinois, where they are well-known for their corruption.

I've heard Wisconsin and Minnesota are especially great in this regard due to the type of migrants they attracted early on, but I could be wrong.

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It is EXTREMELY suspicious that Florida’s deaths have dropped dramatically despite a sudden peak that rivaled the other two waves (even with the vaccines) but cases are still at the peak.
Deaths lag behind all other metrics, and that makes sense because it takes time for people to die from Covid. It’s very weird what is happening in Florida, I don’t see a similar trend in any other state so I am puzzled.

Indeed, it looks quite suspicious. It always looks like this though, the reason being that Florida only updates weekly now because DeSantis decided we beat COVID back in June, so it wasn't a priority (a defensible decision at the time).

The thing is though that we didn't really defeat COVID, it came back and now during these surges we're sorta missing data for much of the week, which really sucks, because it'd be pretty swell to have it.


Speaking of which, Florida's weekly report for August 13 - August 19, 2021 was just released.

Here's the full update:

Cumulative Confirmed Cases: 3,027,954

JUL 22 - 2,479,975 (+73,199 New Weekly, +3.04%) (15.7% Positivity Rate)
JUL 29 - 2,590,699 (+110,477 New Weekly, +4.45%) (18.8% Positivity Rate)
AUG 05 - 2,725,450 (+134,506 New Weekly, +5.19%) (19.4% Positivity Rate)
AUG 12 - 2,877,214 (+151,514 New Weekly, +5.56%) (19.6% Positivity Rate)
AUG 19 - 3,027,954 (+150,118 New Weekly, +5.22%) (19.8% Positivity Rate)

Cumulative Confirmed Deaths: 42,252

As for deaths, I'll just show you all the graph, and not the actual numbers, because the numbers, they just don't add up. There's a lack of data here, so older deaths are constantly being added onto the logs, and not all the newer deaths are here yet (last week the August 12 week had only ~700 deaths, now it's at ~1,000).

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It looks like we've hit a plateau now, though in terms of cases, it remains to be seen when and how fast deaths will now decline. What really sucks, though, is that they don't break down the data by day, so we don't know exactly when it peaks. Once again, lack of data (screw these guys honestly).

The silver lining here is that the most vulnerable, the elderly, are by and large vaccinated, thankfully. It'd be absolutely horrible if they weren't (in terms of deaths and impact).

This probably is why our death numbers (and likely other death numbers across the U.S.) are gonna be way lower than what you may expect based on the case counts, and also are unlikely to reach December/January levels (which were horrific).

And yeah, everybody here has COVID. I probably got it too earlier lol, luckily it just was a sniffle and I didn't spread it much.


Another thing that I'm sure many of you have been waiting for. Florida's deaths per capita (1,922 per million) has surpassed the total United States number (1,877 per million).

:/

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A piece of good news

Presumably due to higher vaccination rates among American seniors, we can see that they have (relatively) been hit less hard by this wave than they have previous waves of the COVID-19 pandemic.



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While every age group below the age of 60 is doing worse during the Delta wave in terms of hospitalizations than they were in the Winter wave, seniors are doing better.

This is good because it means deaths are likely to be lower.

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maybe people should try losing a bit of weight, eating better in general, getting more sun, eating garlic or other stuff to boost their immune system to try preventing getting covid instead of stuff that's iffy at best like getting the clot shot or wearing leather dog masks(cloth masks and n95s aren't enough, guys. its the cdc who makes the recommendations not me) or standing six feet apart

What does this even mean

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New Florida data release comes out tomorrow

Hope to see Broward's positivity rates decline for a second week

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New Florida data release comes out tomorrow

Hope to see Broward's positivity rates decline for a second week

Florida Data Release came out!

Great news inside, with positivity rates plummeting statewide.

Cumulative Confirmed Cases: 3,179,714

JUL 29 - 2,591,381 (+110,455 New Weekly, +4.45%) (18.9% Positivity Rate)
AUG 05 - 2,726,268 (+134,887 New Weekly, +5.21%) (19.6% Positivity Rate)
AUG 12 - 2,877,729 (+151,461 New Weekly, +5.56%) (19.8% Positivity Rate)
AUG 19 - 3,027,965 (+150,236 New Weekly, +5.22%) (20.1% Positivity Rate)
AUG 26 - 3,179,714 (+151,749 New Weekly, +5.01%) (16.8% Positivity Rate)

Cumulative Confirmed Deaths: 43,979

As for deaths, I'll just show you all the graph, and not the actual numbers, because the numbers, they just don't add up. There's a lack of data here, so older deaths are constantly being added onto the logs, and not all the newer deaths are here yet.

However, this idea that deaths peaked two weeks ago we have seen signs of in the last report as well. Very good to see!

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Maps directly comparing last week's preliminary county positivity rates with this week's preliminary positivity rates county-by-county in the state of Florida:

Image Link AUG 13 - AUG 19

Image Link AUG 20 - AUG 26


Beautiful bloc in the Southeast

About to move on to the next category together!

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Another map expanding on the decline in positivity rates:

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We can only hope that in three months time, when the Northeastern and Midwestern states go indoors, vaccination rates are high enough there for them to be doing alright. People seem to have forgotten how horrible last winter was in terms of cases and deaths. That was definitely the peak of the pandemic in the U.S., not this Delta wave or the original NYC surge.

Back in those months, the state of California was, per capita, getting more cases each day than even Mississippi or Louisiana are right now! And deaths from this wave have been nowhere near as bad as they were that wave. This only can speak to the effectiveness of the vaccine and the large proportion of seniors which have taken the precaution to receive it.


Unfortunately, there are certain Northern states which aren't doing so hot in terms of vaccination rates, such as Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, the Dakotas, Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois.

Personally, I'm watching for a spike in those regions starting Fall at a similar level as is being seen in the Deep South right now (like what happened last year). Fingers crossed that it doesn't happen, but it doesn't seem likely at this time.

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-SNIP-

Hmm? Your graphs show both are true. Cases are about double last summer. Deaths are about the same.

Ah, I stand corrected.

I misread your earlier statement, and thought you were referring to last winter.

Your point stands completely.

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Prediction: The epicenter of the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States is going to have shifted North to the state of Georgia within one week's time, fueled by numbers in the Southern part of the state.

Positivity rates and daily confirmed cases in that state have been rising in the state to dangerously high levels. In fact, for a few days now, they've been over 15% statewide, and in fact, in terms of "Date of Collection" (as opposed to "Date of Reporting", which is usually used), the positivity rate has been above 15% and consistently rising day-on-day for weeks now!

Daily confirmed cases in Georgia also have been regularly reaching 7,000 for a few days now (for Florida this number is 21K and falling). I expect roles to reverse as Georgia reaches 10K cases a day and Florida's number falls below 20K, with Florida's positivity rates continue their drop, and weekly confirmed case numbers in Florida shift downwards below 150K for the first time in weeks.

Expect Governor Kemp of Georgia to face increasing media scrutiny.

Watch out for high rates in Tennessee, Arizona, and North Carolina as well.
Also be on the lookout for a steady increase in Southern California.


I originally wrote this two days ago, I should've posted it then. Honestly, this seems to be coming more true with each passing day as Georgia's positivity rates have risen to nearly 20% at this point, and Georgia these days is regularly reporting 9K cases a day.

See this data from the CDC as of today:

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And this data from the Georgia Department of Health, contrasting with lowering positivity rates in Florida:

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Prediction: The epicenter of the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States is going to have shifted North to the state of Georgia within one week's time, fueled by numbers in the Southern part of the state.

We're starting to get to the point again where case counts are sort of misleading for a combination of reasons. An indicator of that is the fact that the positivity rate is so high, especially in hotspots like Florida.

1) In some areas, it has gotten to the point where testing capacity is limited/delayed and you have to check multiple places to get a test.

2) Some people who think they may be sick are deliberately NOT getting tested, to avoid rules at school/work that if you test positive you have to quarantine. Kinda like how Trump said, if you don't test, we don't have cases...

3) Some people won't bother getting tested even if they are sick unless they have something more than a mild case.

This would be a good counterargument a few weeks back, but it doesn't take away from my overall point, the pandemic is winding down in Florida and the epicenter is shifting farther North (a process which will no doubt repeat many times over the coming months with different states).

In fact, despite Florida increasing the amount of tests it took by 20% week-on-week last update, the number of confirmed cases only rose by 1%. This occurred as the statewide positivity rate (after having been at a plateau for several weeks) declined by 3%. Combine this with lowering COVID hospitalization numbers and death rates, and it's pretty clear that, no matter how many people were uncounted a few weeks earlier, that the pandemic is winding down in this state.

Georgia has not experienced this process yet and currently is seeing positivity rates and confirmed cases both on the rise. It is a reasonable assumption to make that Georgia is going to be the new Hotspot in the future.

This isn't even to mention that your points #2 and #3 are true the world over, not really Florida-specific. That's happening everywhere.

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Tennessee's another dark horse for being a COVID-19 epicenter over the coming weeks, competing with Georgia despite only having 65% of its population

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Be aware that for Tennessee to be at Florida levels during its Delta Wave peak, it'd only need 7K cases a day. Tennessee is looking to surpass that, though.

South Carolina's also hot on their tail in terms of cases, but its positivity rate's somewhat lower.


In the case of Ohio, it looks like Autumn's about to arrive and is just around the corner.
Mike DeWine won't be happy about this one.

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Could be a harbinger of bad days to come for the Midwest over the coming months.
Indiana, Illinois, Minnesota, and Wisconsin all are seeing slow but steady increases, both in terms of positivity and in confirmed cases. The Midwestern wave is coming and it'll be brutal, possibly even worse than the Southern one.

This isn't even to speak of the Interior Northwest, where Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, and the Dakotas are looking to break all records per capita despite it not even being close to winter yet. They should be getting ready, though.

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Tennessee takes the lead from Florida (which now is down to fourth) in terms of per capita confirmed cases, a lead it is likely to retain in coming days.

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Also I really hate to be that guy but...

Called it.


In other news, Georgia is hot on Florida's heels. Expect a rank switch within three days. Possibly less.

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Florida Data Release came out!

Great news inside, with positivity rates continuing to fall statewide.

Cumulative Confirmed Cases: 3,308,916

AUG 05 - 2,725,958 (+134,917 New Weekly, +5.21%) (19.7% Positivity Rate)
AUG 12 - 2,877,402 (+151,444 New Weekly, +5.56%) (19.9% Positivity Rate)
AUG 19 - 3,027,824 (+150,222 New Weekly, +5.22%) (20.3% Positivity Rate)
AUG 26 - 3,179,676 (+151,852 New Weekly, +5.01%) (17.1% Positivity Rate)
SEP 03 - 3,308,916 (+129,240 New Weekly, +4.06%) (15.2% Positivity Rate)

Cumulative Confirmed Deaths: 46,324

As for deaths, I'll just show you all the graph, and not the actual numbers, because the numbers, they just don't add up. There's a lack of data here, so older deaths are constantly being added onto the logs, and not all the newer deaths are here yet.

Looks like unfortunately, deaths haven't peaked yet (to our knowledge). The bar showing the most deaths remains static two weeks before the release date.

It would seem most likely, though, that deaths should be peaking within the next week especially as positivity rates peaked two weeks ago.

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Maps directly comparing last week's preliminary county positivity rates with this week's preliminary positivity rates county-by-county in the state of Florida:

Image Link AUG 20 - AUG 26

Image Link AUG 27 - SEP 02


Miami-Dade drops fast and becomes the first county in Florida for many weeks to see it's positivity rate dip below the 10% mark.

Broward County drops fast from 12.9% to 10.5% (and also becomes the second-lowest figure statewide)

Palm Beach County likewise drops from from 13.9% to 12.6%.

Orange County drops from 14.9% to 13.4%

Hillsborough County's positivity rates loom high above the rest, yet they still drop going from 18.9% to 17.4%.

Duval County goes from 15.1% to 13.8%

The I-4 corridor once again experiences a massive drop as Pasco, Polk, and Hernando continue shooting down

As does the central panhandle counties (previously some of the highest statewide, many of them)

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The state of Washington is seeing their worst covid surge yet, and hospitalizations have soared to a record high, especially in Spokane and king county

Really not looking good for the NE around the holidays then.

Yeah, if Washington state experiences this (and in King County cases have also significantly risen), with Seattle and all going up too, it's hard to see how the Northeast will be able to escape at this rate


The CDC's update on Rosh Hashanah will be interesting

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While they might not escape, aren't these outbreaks going to be less pronounced is areas of the country with high vax rates?

Cases probably equally as pronounced (COVID is COVID, it goes by you, you get it, you test positive even if you're vaccinated)

The place where we're gonna see differences is mortality rates