COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[icemanj]

9/13: <Sunday>

• Cases: 6,708,458 (+31,857 | ΔW Change: ↑9.48% | Σ Increase: ↑0.48%)
• Deaths: 198,520 (+392 | ΔW Change: ↓9.26% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)

9/14 (Yesterday): <M>

• Cases: 6,749,289 (+40,831 | ΔW Change: ↑61.23% | Σ Increase: ↑0.61%)
• Deaths: 199,000 (+480 | ΔW Change: ↑69.01% | Σ Increase: ↑0.24%)

9/15 (Today): <T>

• Cases: 6,787,737 (+38,448 | ΔW Change: ↑34.17% | Σ Increase: ↑0.57%)
• Deaths: 200,178 (+1,178 | ΔW Change: ↑136.55% | Σ Increase: ↑0.59%)

Well, we just broke the 200,000 COVID-19 American deaths mark, and on top of that, that's not even the worst news. It's the fact that we're on another upswing again, it seems, big time.

Last week was labor day and that kind of screws up the numbers. Should wait until the end of the week and see what it looks like.

[icemanj]

We are going to hit 100k cases a day in 2 weeks.

[icemanj]

I think it's time to change the thread title (I don't know to what though).

[icemanj]

Will the peak of the entire pandemic be on Jan 11th? (according to worldometers, 7-day average)

[icemanj]

On Jan 11, the 7-day average for new cases was 255k. One month later, there's a real chance of it being below 100k. That's crazy.

[icemanj]

On Jan 11, the 7-day average for new cases was 255k. One month later, there's a real chance of it being below 100k. That's crazy.

Well, actually it's science.

True. The way things were looking though, I didn't think it would decrease that fast.

[icemanj]

Went to Menards today, they still have a 'masks required' sign up, but I'd say about 30-40% were maskless.

[icemanj]

Is there any proof that Delta has mutated to be more transmissible in hot/humid weather? Places like SE Asia and Indonesia are just now starting to be hit hard after being largely spared in the early days.

[icemanj]

Indiana is gonna get hit hard. Maybe now, maybe in winter. We're at about the same vaccination rate as GA, SC, LA, TN, AL, and not increasing vax rate as much as those states did

[icemanj]

The 7-day average of new cases in the U.S. is on a pretty clear downward slope again. Today was the lowest since Aug. 21.

In 8 days, it's fallen from 163,006 to 147,207.

There does appear to be a peak on September 1, but I'd give it a few weeks to see if there's a spike from labor day. Otherwise it's pretty clear that it's slowly going down, held back by a few states that are still on the rise.

Except for Labor Day messing with the averages (one day where there were only four days of reported cases) Georgia's seven day average has dropped every day this month.

Importantly, the COVID "wall" in the eastern, urbanized half of VA continues to hold.  That's encouraging for the North in the fall.  Remember, VA and FL vaccination rates are comparable on paper.

While that's a good sign for high vaxx areas in the north, the Midwest is going to be hit hard. PA's cases are rising a lot, and that's with decent vaxx %. Ohio, Wisconsin, and Michigan especially are going to fair badly, I think.

don't forget Indiana, where our vax rate is comparable to Alabama and Tennessee.