Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Skye]

Ciudadanos is OUT of the general election. The party ends its existence with a whimper.

[It’s so Joever]

Saw the news in El Pais and was confused as f**k. Wtf?? Why now? I’m not super well versed in Spanish politics but is there a reason for this…

[Oryxslayer]

Saw the news in El Pais and was confused as f**k. Wtf?? Why now? I’m not super well versed in Spanish politics but is there a reason for this…

Now is when they are finally expected to not stand a chance at winning seats anywhere. However that hasn't stopped thousands of other minor parties with worse forecasts in worse electoral systems, so perhaps C's are trying to preempt humiliation.

[Velasco]

Political scientist Lluis Orriols points that, calling a snap election, the PSOE is renouncing to implement social policies in order to gain support. As a result, the PSOE would be forced to launch a negative campaign to counter the PP's negative campaign. Resorting to the fear of the right might work or not, but in any case the right is already hyper-mobilized on the hate for Pedro Sánchez and his allies

https://twitter.com/LluisOrriols/status/1663548758079197184?t=G5F4Pzbbnpsb0POT9c...

I don't know what to think. On the ine hand, Pedro Sánchez would have faced an unsufferable pressure from rightwing opposition and media waiting until December.  The results of regional and local elections were demanding immediate action. On the other hand, the right-wing victory was bigger due to the collapse of what once was Podemos, not caused by the PSOE's collapse. There's no time for Yolanda Díaz to forge a solid alliance, only to improvise a coalition list and save what she can  save. It's clear now that Yolanda Díaz waited too much, but it's petty obvious too the sectarianism of the Pablo Iglesias supporters made the Sumar project a nearly impossible task.

I think folks in the PSOE are not fully aware of what is coming ahead. A rightwing victory wouldn't be a comeback to Aznar or Rajoy. A PP-VOX government will be something much worse,  a true reactionary involution.

[Peeperkorn]

I've read many times the expression sanchismo in the right-wing media, but what exactly does that mean? How is it different than -for example- zapaterismo?

[kaoras]

I've read many times the expression sanchismo in the right-wing media, but what exactly does that mean? How is it different than -for example- zapaterismo?

The Spanish right has deluded themselves into thinking that Pdr Snchz is the second coming of the devil and a dangerous lunatic radical (mainly on the issue of doing deals with nationalist parties)

So, the right-wing press uses Sanchismo to distinguish it from a mythical and respectable PSOE/Left that no longer controls the party, crushed under his evil pro-separatist fist (I'm only just slightly exaggerating, the Spanish Right is objectively deranged).

[MRCVzla]

I've read many times the expression sanchismo in the right-wing media, but what exactly does that mean? How is it different than -for example- zapaterismo?

The mainstream concept of "sanchismo" by the right-wing bloc (and the media outlets who supports or give plataform) i believe as the capacity of survive o pact at "any cost" with the "enemies of the country's unity" (the "bolivarian"/muh-communist/republican radical left and the peripherical separatists/terrorists) for just the sake of power, it's mostly spreading lies/fake news and fears with some doses of "ideological war", and seems it works for many parts of their target electorate. Hence the high hostility/crispation who the internal public opinion sees in the ongoing government, as this is unable to translate their socio-economic "successes" to a more moderate electorate (?).

[Velasco]

I've read many times the expression sanchismo in the right-wing media, but what exactly does that mean? How is it different than -for example- zapaterismo?

That's a good question and maybe it's worthy of a deeper analysis.  The short answer is that sanchismo is a construct of the rightwing opposition and its friendly media connected to the idea of "illegitimate government". The constructors of sanchimo paints a distorted picture of Pedro Sánchez, attributing him negative traits such as immorality, lack of scruples and even psycopathy  (I'm not joking: there are several pieces in rightwing media on the psycopathic traits of Sánchez released in the last years, try a google search). In short: they paint the picture of someone who could sell his soul to the devil, or sell Spain to rojos y separatistas. There are connections between the c9nstructs of sanchismo and zapaterismo, specially on the idea of "illegitimate government ". Remember there was a conspiracy theory claiming the Madrid bombings in 2004 were orchestrated to change electoral results. On the other hand, Pedro Sánchez came to power through a no confidence motion supported by the "enemies of Spain" (the far-left and the peripheral nationalists). I'd say the main difference is that Zapatero was accused of buenista (naive), while Sánchez is deemed an evilish person

[Mike88]

I think folks in the PSOE are not fully aware of what is coming ahead. A rightwing victory wouldn't be a comeback to Aznar or Rajoy. A PP-VOX government will be something much worse,  a true reactionary involution.

I don't see Feijóo as radical or reactionary, on the contrary. As Galician President he was a moderate and seems to fall in line with the Moreno Bonilla trend inside the PP. However, I'm not sure how he will handle Vox or even how Vox will manage being that close to power. We can't rule out anything but I wouldn't be surprised if in 2 years or so, if the PP wins the July elections of course, the PP+Vox deals collapses and Feijóo tries to win a majority of his own.

[Velasco]

I think folks in the PSOE are not fully aware of what is coming ahead. A rightwing victory wouldn't be a comeback to Aznar or Rajoy. A PP-VOX government will be something much worse,  a true reactionary involution.

I don't see Feijóo as radical or reactionary, on the contrary. As Galician President he was a moderate and seems to fall in line with the Moreno Bonilla trend inside the PP. However, I'm not sure how he will handle Vox or even how Vox will manage being that close to power. We can't rule out anything but I wouldn't be surprised if in 2 years or so, if the PP wins the July elections of course, the PP+Vox deals collapses and Feijóo tries to win a majority of his own.

Feijóo is just a conservative man from Galicia. The problem is that he is not the actual leader of the PP,  just the person who provisionally puts his face in electoral posters.  The forces that drive the PP nowadays are in Madrid. On the other hand, the PP will need Vox to govern. Santiago Abascal will demand to be Deputy PM and some portfolios for Vox. Pretty soon the right-wing coalition will revoke progressive legislation and implement a reactionary agenda, cutting social and civic rights, as well prosecuting migrants and minorities. I have little doubt about that

[Mike88]

I think folks in the PSOE are not fully aware of what is coming ahead. A rightwing victory wouldn't be a comeback to Aznar or Rajoy. A PP-VOX government will be something much worse,  a true reactionary involution.

I don't see Feijóo as radical or reactionary, on the contrary. As Galician President he was a moderate and seems to fall in line with the Moreno Bonilla trend inside the PP. However, I'm not sure how he will handle Vox or even how Vox will manage being that close to power. We can't rule out anything but I wouldn't be surprised if in 2 years or so, if the PP wins the July elections of course, the PP+Vox deals collapses and Feijóo tries to win a majority of his own.

Feijóo is just a conservative man from Galicia. The problem is that he is not the actual leader of the PP,  just the person who provisionally puts his face in electoral posters.  The forces that drive the PP nowadays are in Madrid. On the other hand, the PP will need Vox to govern. Santiago Abascal will demand to be Deputy PM and some portfolios for Vox. Pretty soon the right-wing coalition will revoke progressive legislation and implement a reactionary agenda, cutting social and civic rights, as well prosecuting migrants and minorities. I have little doubt about that

I'm not saying you're wrong about the PP now being "ruled" by the Madrid local branch, but, again, Feijóo is Galician and I live in Northern Portugal, we have similar quirks and when we are stubborn, we are stubborn. I think that, once in power, we cannot rule out that Feijóo would want to do things on his own way. We'll see.

[Zinneke]

Mike, stop deluding yourself, Feijoo will sell out the Catalans, minority language rights, basic womens rights etc for a taste of power. To get what he got he allied with Ayuso the ultimate populist right figure. Velasco is right, a PP-Vox government is the beginning of Orbanisation in Spain, a reversal of the Autonomies, and the deep state  that includes the intelligence services, police, activist lawyers - that in Spain are all right-wing! - but also the higher education system will all be captured politically.

Vox wants to invoke Art. 155 the moment they get into the coalition. Watch out for ERC calling a snap election in the process and yet again the Catalan nationalists gaining ground despite Sanchez and Podemos the "golpistas, rojas y ultraizquierdistas" actually demotivating and breaking the Catalan momentum.

No offense man but people like you are kind of the problem in European democracy overall, just bland centre-right people that see a blue rosette and think its the same as back home. Take a good look at how Metsola will condemn Orban and Poland for politicising the judiciary because they are Eastern European and the governing parties are not in the EPP but has yet to say anything about how incredibly politicised the Spanish and Greek intelligence services are.

[Mike88]

Mike, stop deluding yourself, Feijoo will sell out the Catalans, minority language rights, basic womens rights etc for a taste of power. To get what he got he allied with Ayuso the ultimate populist right figure. Velasco is right, a PP-Vox government is the beginning of Orbanisation in Spain, a reversal of the Autonomies, and the deep state  that includes the intelligence services, police, activist lawyers - that in Spain are all right-wing! - but also the higher education system will all be captured politically.

Vox wants to invoke Art. 155 the moment they get into the coalition. Watch out for ERC calling a snap election in the process and yet again the Catalan nationalists gaining ground despite Sanchez and Podemos the "golpistas, rojas y ultraizquierdistas" actually demotivating and breaking the Catalan momentum.

No offense man but people like you are kind of the problem in European democracy overall, just bland centre-right people that see a blue rosette and think its the same as back home. Take a good look at how Metsola will condemn Orban and Poland for politicising the judiciary because they are Eastern European and the governing parties are not in the EPP but has yet to say anything about how incredibly politicised the Spanish and Greek intelligence services are.

No offense taken. In this forum we debate things and sometimes we have to agree to disagree.

I'm not those who have a black or white view of things, sometimes gray stuff happens. We assume this is going to happen, but I'm not sure what will happen. Sanchéz could win, not likely but who knows, and the PP could even reach a near majority result that would make Vox irrelevant, again, not likely but who knows. Spain is a country with very complicated circumstances that even for me, a neighbor country citizen, are difficult to understand and grasp. The territorial issue is very complicated and it's not like it is a right vs left thing, even within the PSOE people like Gonzaléz and Page don't agree with many of Sanchéz decisions regarding the Catalan issue. Again, I live in a country that is a unitarian nation state for centuries that doesn't have territorial issues, things like regional parties are even forbidden, so, each European country has its own characteristics.

I don't agree on what Poland or Hungary are doing, but that's my opinion from a Portuguese point of view. My country isn't perfect and the issue of European democracy, like you put it, in my view is this: We are part of a community of countries that have to follow some basic rules, the rule of law, respect for one and another, free trade, etc., but, if there are countries that don't like to follow rules and think that they are better than the rest, fine, but they have to face the consequences, even if that means being kicked out of the EU, just look at the mess the UK has turned into. And I'm not sure many will accept those consequences.

[Velasco]

I think folks in the PSOE are not fully aware of what is coming ahead. A rightwing victory wouldn't be a comeback to Aznar or Rajoy. A PP-VOX government will be something much worse,  a true reactionary involution.

I don't see Feijóo as radical or reactionary, on the contrary. As Galician President he was a moderate and seems to fall in line with the Moreno Bonilla trend inside the PP. However, I'm not sure how he will handle Vox or even how Vox will manage being that close to power. We can't rule out anything but I wouldn't be surprised if in 2 years or so, if the PP wins the July elections of course, the PP+Vox deals collapses and Feijóo tries to win a majority of his own.

Feijóo is just a conservative man from Galicia. The problem is that he is not the actual leader of the PP,  just the person who provisionally puts his face in electoral posters.  The forces that drive the PP nowadays are in Madrid. On the other hand, the PP will need Vox to govern. Santiago Abascal will demand to be Deputy PM and some portfolios for Vox. Pretty soon the right-wing coalition will revoke progressive legislation and implement a reactionary agenda, cutting social and civic rights, as well prosecuting migrants and minorities. I have little doubt about that

I'm not saying you're wrong about the PP now being "ruled" by the Madrid local branch, but, again, Feijóo is Galician and I live in Northern Portugal, we have similar quirks and when we are stubborn, we are stubborn. I think that, once in power, we cannot rule out that Feijóo would want to do things on his own way. We'll see.

When I said the PP'S driving forces are in Madrid, I was not only referring to the regional branch led by Isabel Díaz Ayuso. I was also referring to the economic power, the conservative media, the judiciary and other institutions that are pushing to revoke sanchismo (it's a vile construct, as I said earlier, and it's also a PP slogan). Feijóo is moderate in comparison to Ayuso and for sure he would want to do things in his own. It happens that Madrid is not Galicia. Madrid is a jungle and it's the epicenter of the upcoming reactionary turn. Feijóo has governed placidly his region placed in a beautiful corner of Spain where Vox has not even a single regional representative. But honestly, he does not seem to be very suited to be a national leader and certainly he's not the one who dictates the agenda.

It's not easy for me to describe my feelings when I heard the victory speeches of Ayuso,  Almeida and Feijóo on election night.  For the first time in my life I felt fear of the political future of Spain. Hopefully I will be wrong

[BigSerg]

The PP and Vox are assured of another 1-2% of the votes as Ciudadanos is not running in the elections. Yes, it is over. At this point you have to be an absolute delusional like Tezanos not to predict the absolute majority of the right

[Lumine]

I know they deserve it after badly and repeatedly screwing up since 2019 (the Foto de Colón, Rivera going scorched earth on Sanchez, Arrimadas' erratic leadership, the Murcia debacle, and so on), but I can't help but to mourn C's collapse and disapperance (going the way of UCD, CDS and UPyD). I really felt they could have played an important and positive role in a multi-party system, not long ago they looked set up and ready for it, and it is a shame that failure led not only to setback, but to outright demise.

To think Rivera could still be Deputy PM (Vicepresidente, I know) of a coalition government in a different timeline...

[Velasco]

Former judge Juan Pedro Yllanes, Podemos member and deputy premier in Balearic Islands, asks for resignations in the Podemos national leadership. He says that it's surprising that Ione Belarra, Pablo Echenique and Lilith Verstrynge haven't dissapeared from the political scene after the debacle.  Podemos has lost parliamentary representation in the regional parliaments of Madrid, Valencia and the Canary Islands. Additionally its representation in Aragon, Asturias and the Balearic Islands has been resuced to a single member. Yllanes also pointed to Pablo Iglesias, even though avoiding to say his name explicitly. He said that resigning political responsibilities and ruling the party from the outside is not a good strategy. Yllanes is one of the Podemos members in the regions that gave support to Yolanda Díaz and Sumar,  even though he didn't attend the launching event at Magariños Pavillion in Madrid

[Mike88]

Former judge Juan Pedro Yllanes, Podemos member and deputy premier in Balearic Islands, asks for resignations in the Podemos national leadership. He says that it's surprising that Ione Belarra, Pablo Echenique and Lilith Verstrynge haven't dissapeared from the political scene after the debacle.  Podemos has lost parliamentary representation in the regional parliaments of Madrid, Valencia and the Canary Islands. Additionally its representation in Aragon, Asturias and the Balearic Islands has been resuced to a single member. Yllanes also pointed to Pablo Iglesias, even though avoiding to say his name explicitly. He said that resigning political responsibilities and ruling the party from the outside is not a good strategy. Yllanes is one of the Podemos members in the regions that gave support to Yolanda Díaz and Sumar,  even though he didn't attend the launchinvent at Magariños Pavillion in Madrid

Have negotiations between Sumar and Podemos already started? I know that Yolanda Díaz has registered her party but not sure if the talks already started. They have just 10 days to figure out a way out. Although those 10 days only start counting when the official dissolution bulletin is published, which I think hasn't happened yet.

[Velasco]

Have negotiations between Sumar and Podemos already started? I know that Yolanda Díaz has registered her party but not sure if the talks already started. They have just 10 days to figure out a way out. Although those 10 days only start counting when the official dissolution bulletin is published, which I think hasn't happened yet.

I assume negotiations have started already, but J don't have a clue. I haven't read news on the topic* and maybe that's a good sign. I mean, they need to negotiate with the due discretion and out of the focus, avoiding all that harmful noise and the drama

* media outlets reported negotiations have started, but no further details surfaced

[Zinneke]

I know they deserve it after badly and repeatedly screwing up since 2019 (the Foto de Colón, Rivera going scorched earth on Sanchez, Arrimadas' erratic leadership, the Murcia debacle, and so on), but I can't help but to mourn C's collapse and disapperance (going the way of UCD, CDS and UPyD). I really felt they could have played an important and positive role in a multi-party system, not long ago they looked set up and ready for it, and it is a shame that failure led not only to setback, but to outright demise.

To think Rivera could still be Deputy PM (Vicepresidente, I know) of a coalition government in a different timeline...

Rivera would only be Deputy PM to a PP government, and even then he wanted to cannibilise the PP once he saw them on their knees. Dispel the myth in your head that the senior leadership of Cs once Rivera took over were ever going to be a constructive party : We are seeing in France that extreme centrism very much exists. And I don't find completely out of the ordinary the theory that C's were taken over by intelligence figures close to the likes of Aznar and his camp to try and find a more respectable, young face of the establishment Right after the multiple PP corruption scandals. Basically a psyop to get PSC then enlightened centrist type figures who are anti-nationalist to eventually transfer to the PP-VOX block. boy did it work well.

Anyway, looks like in Barcelona the PSC is actively looking for PP support to get the mayorality...cannot see Colau following this though, but interesting to see how a local election was so split along the independence debate despite the internal squabbles between the two independence camps and civil society.

[crals]

But why exactly did Cs collapse so badly?

[Zinneke]

But why exactly did Cs collapse so badly?

Velasco will explain with better theories, but my theory is that they were just outbid by the two parties to the right on the cleavage issues they wanted to campaign on. They are partially responsible of the frenzy in outright insane rhetoric like calling anyone to the left of them "golpistas", calling for suspension of autonomies, etc and once they created these conditions PP and especially Vox were able to take it to a new extreme and outbid them in the electoral market. Cs would propose one thing and both PP and Vox would just propose a more extreme version of it. They couldn't compete in a media sphere where football shows like El Chiringuito are actually seen as models to emulate in a political debate : shouting matches, open hints of cocaine use, people almost playing reality TV characters, and whoever can say the most controversial thing wins the argument. Welcome to Moncloa in a few months. The canis are taking over.

[Oryxslayer]

But why exactly did Cs collapse so badly?

I would argue that the party was never meant to grow so large as they polled right before everything fell apart, because their coalition could not the survive extreme scrutiny and attention it would bring. C's was born in Catalonia, and the circumstances there determined who would join a coalition right of PSC. Conservatism in that arena means Spanish centralism with economic centrism to win the most centralist as possible. But those two fronts meant very different things once the party went national. Centralism is an extreme nationalist position in the rest of Spain, held by Franco Nostalgic voters who today are in VOX. Centrism becomes political Liberalism, which wins voters who are on the side of PP closest to and partially including parts of PSOE, depending on the circumstances, time period in question, and specifics said individual voter cares about.

The party always tried to appeal to both camps, but the fundamental incompatibility on the national scene was exposed only when the part was in a position to make the big policies which would win the approval of one group but anger the other.

[Former President tack50]

Pablo Iglesias launched his proposal to save the left from his pidcast La Base and his Canal Red TV: a "broad progressive front" led by Sánchez and seconded by Díaz, an amalgamation of the PSOE and the left-wing parties running in smaller provinces. This idea was already proposed before the 2000 general elections, when Joaquín Almunia was the leader of the PSOE and Paco Frutos the leader of IU. Meanwhile the Podemos leadership blamea weather conditions (the "reactionary wave"), avoiding analysis or self-criticism. On her part, Yolanda Díaz seems to have realized that it's not time for símiles anymore. "I take on the challenge":. She has only 10 days to forge a coalition between 12 parties including Podemos !

https://twitter.com/Yolanda_Diaz_/status/1663117601063444482?t=oNYgv4J3qwQjL_kmr...

That 2000 alliance was a disaster, wasn't it? Though in the smaller provinces all the votes to the non-PSOE left are going to the trash anyway.

Iirc it was more pointless than a disaster per se. It only applied in the Senate, which is the pointless chamber and elephant cemetery in Spain's Congress

It did work quite well in Catalonia, probably helped by the PSC-ERC-ICV government there after 2003, and in fact remained in place as late as 2011, but everywhere else it was dropped after 2000.

[Former President tack50]

I've read many times the expression sanchismo in the right-wing media, but what exactly does that mean? How is it different than -for example- zapaterismo?

It doesn't really mean much other than the broad policies that the Sanchez government has taken. Nowhere to the extent of "Sanchismo"; but the terms "Marianismo", "Aznarismo" or "Felipismo" were also used to some degree for former PMs Mariano Rajoy, Jose María Aznar and Felipe González respectively.

Kinda like if Americans started to call Biden's broad policies "Bidenism" I suppose