Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[MRCVzla]

Meanwhile in the regional/autonomic races:
Asturias at 83.5%: PSOE 19, IU-MP 3, Podemos 1, PP 17, Vox 4, Foro 1
Navarra at 82.5%: UPN 15, PP 3, Vox 2, PSN 11, Geroa Bai 7, Contigo/UP 3, EH Bildu 9
Aragón at 81.9%: PP 27, Vox 7, PSOE 23, Aragón Existe 4, CHA 3, Podemos 1, IU 1, PAR 1
Balears at 73.8%: PP 25, Vox 8, PSOE 17, Més 4, UP 2, MxMenorca 2, GxF 1 (El PI out)
Murcia at 64.5% PP 21, Vox 9, PSOE 12, UP 2, MCR (Cartagena localists) 1
Cantabria at 63.1%: PP 14, Vox 4, PSOE 9, PRC 8 (Revilla is done, already conceded)
Comunitat Valenciana at 61.1%: PP 40, Vox  13, PSPV 32, Compromís 14
Extremadura at 55.2%: PP 28, Vox  5, PSOE 28, UP 4 (very tight race)
Castilla-La Mancha at 53.6%: PSOE 17 (currently with majority), PP 12, Vox 4
La Rioja at 52.2%: PP 17 (majority), Vox 2, PSOE 12, UP 2
Madrid at 34.2%: PP 67, Vox 10, PSOE 30, MM 28 (UP out)
Canarias at 21.8%: PSOE 18, CC 17, PP 13, Vox 3, NC 3, no results yet in La Gomera or El Hierro.

Ceuta at 98.8%: PP 9, Vox 5, PSOE 6, MDyC (Sumar ally) 3, Ceuta Ya! (localist) 2
Melilla at 60.1%: PP 15 (majority), Vox 3, CPM (the bribe party) 4, PSOE 3

EDIT: Now past 40% counted in Madrid community, Ayuso get her majority at 68 seats (PSOE at 29), in Aragón, PP is now at 28 (Existe -1 with 3), still early in Canarias but now with the 2 tiny islands with huge localist presence counted (ASG 3, AHI 1, other localist from El Hierro at 1, PSOE at 19, PP 15, NC loss 1 at 2, CC and Vox even with 17 and 3)

[Mike88]

GAD3 also predicts that PP will be the most voted party nationwide in the local elections with more than 1 million votes ahead of PSOE.

Unlike what GAD3 was forecasting, PP will not lead PSOE, nationwide, by more than 1 million votes. The final margin will probable be somewhere near 800,000 votes.

Avicii being played at the PP headquarters.

[Estrella]

RIP Ciudadanos.

0.98% nationwide...

[Mike88]

Ximo Puig (PSOE), Valencian President, has conceded defeat.

Extremadura continues ridiculously close. It does seem that PSOE will lose power there.

[Logical]

PSOE falls below majority in C-LM

[Mike88]

PSOE falls below majority in C-LM

It has regained again. It's still close. Let's wait for the final count. This is the only race still in doubt.

[Logical]

How does the PSOE mayor of Vigo keep winning by these Assad margins?

[Mike88]

How does the PSOE mayor of Vigo keep winning by these Assad margins?

I assume it's because of the Christmas thing. Christmas celebrations in Vigo start in August and this creates a lot of tourist revenue as tons of people flock to the city. Plus, there's a lot of publicity to the city.

[Velasco]

In the Canary islands, so far, with 16% counted, CC+PP+Vox have a majority. But again, there's still a lot to count here also.

Right now CC has 20 seats and PP 15. In all likelihood Casimiro Curbelo and NC will offer their votes to them. Vox is out of the combonations to form government, but it has outperformed previous expectations.  NC and Podemos leaders, Román Rodríguez and Noemí Santana might not be elected

What a terrible night for Spain, specially for what's left of the left. Let's get prepared for the reactionary wave

[Mike88]

In the Canary islands, so far, with 16% counted, CC+PP+Vox have a majority. But again, there's still a lot to count here also.

Right now CC has 20 seats and PP 15. In all likelihood Casimiro Curbelo and NC will offer their votes to them. Vox is out of the combonations to form government, but it has outperformed previous expectations.  NC and Podemos leaders, Román Rodríguez and Noemí Santana might not be elected

What a terrible night for Spain, specially for what's left of the left. Let's get prepared for the reactionary wave

Don't understand why El País is just counting 61 seats for the islands and El Mundo 70. Whatever.

PSOE is now the 3rd political force in both Madrid city hall and regional assembly.

It's almost certain now, with 91% counted, that PSOE will hold on to their majority in Castilla-La-Mancha. The only silver lining in a really bad night for the Socialists.

[Logical]

I have to imagine disunity and lack of a clear leader has been fatal for forces left of PSOE? Changing names every election can't have been helpful either. Perhaps they will learn their lesson before December but then again it is the Spanish left.

[PSOL]

In the Canary islands, so far, with 16% counted, CC+PP+Vox have a majority. But again, there's still a lot to count here also.

Right now CC has 20 seats and PP 15. In all likelihood Casimiro Curbelo and NC will offer their votes to them. Vox is out of the combonations to form government, but it has outperformed previous expectations.  NC and Podemos leaders, Román Rodríguez and Noemí Santana might not be elected

What a terrible night for Spain, specially for what's left of the left. Let's get prepared for the reactionary wave

The reactionary wave has been going on since 2018, you’ve had years to prepare.

[Velasco]

I have to imagine disunity and lack of a clear leader has been fatal for forces left of PSOE? Changing names every election can't have been helpful either. Perhaps they will learn their lesson before December but then again it is the Spanish left.

I'm not very optimistic about the left of the PSOE. Everyone in that fragmented space should interpret the results as a humble cure, in order to start working to reunite and offer a project for the people. The purpose of Sumar, the platform of Yolanda Díaz, was to gather all the pieces around her. She probably made a mistake launching her project before securing the presence of what's left of Podemos. But it seems nearly impossible to reverse the process of disintegration that began in 2017, when the supporters of Pablo Iglesias and Iñigo Errejón confronted in the Podemos convention. Maybe the project of Diaz seems a bit elitist andeople like Iñigo Errejón have committed serious mistakes, but in my opinion the most worrying elenent is the sectarian drive of what's left of Podemos. I suspect that the project of Pablo Iglesias is to create a hard core of resistance around his TV channel Canal Red. Meanwhile Podemos dissapesrs from the regional assemblies of Madrid, Valencia and the Canary Islands*

* The Canarian Parliament has 70 sests: 61 elected in 7 insular constituencies and 9 elected in a regional constituency

[Mike88]

* The Canarian Parliament has 70 sests: 61 elected in 7 insular constituencies and 9 elected in a regional constituency

Ah, right. Not sure why El País isn't counting them. Weird that Sanchéz didn't appear and talk to reporters.

Turnout was lower than expected: 63.91%, minus 1.28% compared with 2019. Despite the small increases in the 2 and 6pm turnout updates, less voters turned out after 6pm than in other elections. The bad weather across the Peninsula may had an impact.

[Mike88]

Almost final nationwide local election results:

31.5% PP (+8.9), 23,401 (+3,037)
28.1% PSOE (-1.3), 20,778 (-1,563)
  7.2% Vox (+3.6), 1,690 (+1,160)
  2.5% Junts (nc), 2,683 (-121)
  2.3% ERC (-1.3), 2,903 (-222)
  1.6% Bildu (+0.1), 1,399 (+137)
  1.4% PNV (-0.4), 986 (-69)
  1.3% C's (-7.4), 392 (-2,395)
  1.1% BNG (+0.2), 590 (+134)
23.0% Others

63.9% Turnout (-1.3)

[MRCVzla]

General scenario at province capitals (plus cities over 100k inhabitants):
PP majority: Madrid, Almería, Badajoz, Cádiz, Córdoba, Granada, Logroño, Melilla, Murcia, Málaga, Oviedo, Salamanca, Santander, Teruel, Badalona, Jerez de la Frontera, Marbella, Torrejón de Ardoz, Algeciras, Roquetas de Mar
Right-wing lead but PP>combined left: Albacete, Alicante, Ciudad Real, Huelva, Huesca, Segovia, Zaragoza, Gijón (Foro), Alcobendas
Right-wing bloc lead: Valencia, Sevilla, Burgos, Castellón, Ceuta, Cáceres, Guadalajara, Ourense, Palma de Mallorca, Toledo, Valladolid, Elche, Cartagena, Móstoles, Alcalá de Henares
PSOE majority: Soria, Vigo, Sabadell, Fuenlabrada, Dos Hermanas, Santa Coloma de Gramenet
Left-wing bloc lead: A Coruña, Jaén, León, Lleida, Lugo, Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Tarragona, Zamora (IU), L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, Getafe, Alcorcón, Parla, Mataró
Nationalist with left-wing support: Bilbao, San Sebastián, Barakaldo (PNV), Pontevedra, Santiago de Compostela (BNG)
Nationalist with center-right support: Santa Cruz de Tenerife (CC)
Nationalist/regionalist bloc lead: Girona (Guanyem)
Likely Localist: Ávila, Terrassa, Telde
Tossup with a Regionalist/localist as kingmaker: Cuenca, Palencia, Leganés
Tossup: Barcelona, Pamplona, Vitoria-Gasteiz, San Cristóbal de La Laguna, Reus

Also results from the Foral/Provincial elections in Basque Country:
Álava: PNV 15, EH Bildu 14, PSE-EE 9, PP 9, Elkarrekin 3, Vox 1
Bizkaia: PNV 23, EH Bildu 15, PSE-EE 8, PP 3, Elkarrekin 2
Gipuzkoa: EH Bildu 22, PNV 17, PSE-EE 7, PP 3, Elkarrekin 2

Canary Islands' Insular councils (Cabildos) so far:
Tenerife: PSOE 11, CC 11, PP 7, Vox 2
Lanzarote: PSOE 8, CC 7, PP 5, NC 2, Vox 1
Gran Canaria: NC 8, PSOE 8, PP 7, Vox 3, CC 3
Fuerteventura: CC 8, PP 5, PSOE 5, NC 3, AMF (localist) 2
La Palma: CC 11, PP 5, PSOE 5
La Gomera: ASG 12, PSOE 2, IxLG 2, CC 1
El Hierro: PSOE 4, AHI 3, AH (localist) 3, PP 2, IUC-Reunir 1

Conselh Generau d'Aran: CDA-PNA 5, UA-PSC-CP 3, AA-AM 1; no change respect to 2019

[Velasco]

In the Canary Islands there are PSOE pluralities in Las Palmas,  Santa Cruz de Tenerife and La Laguna . The PSOE will likely retain Las Palmas (supported by NC and USP)  and La Laguna (supported  by USP and its splinter DVC), but Santa Cruz de Tenerife will go for CC+PP

I heard Ayuso, Almeida and Feijóo last night and I felt fear of future

[Velasco]

* The Canarian Parliament has 70 sests: 61 elected in 7 insular constituencies and 9 elected in a regional constituency

Ah, right. Not sure why El País isn't counting them. Weird that Sanchéz didn't appear and talk to reporters.

The only person who appeared last night was Pilar Alegría.  Pedro Sánchez may argue these were regional and local elections,  but obviously he will have to react or say anything.There will be a meeting this morning at the PSOE HQs in Madrid.

The PSOE losses in local elections are relatively moderate in vote percentage, as well the socialists made gains in some regions. However,  the losses are big in what really matters: the base of territorial power has crumbled as a house of cards. They'll have to analyze multiple factors like:

- The right was succesful focusing the campaign on national issues, mobilizing voters around issues like Bildu or the so-called "sanchismo"

- On the contrary, the Sánchez administration has been unsuccessful selling its achievements. The low approval rates are rather strange considering that the economy is going relatively well (increasing employment, lower inflation compared to other EU countries) and most initiatives have a general approval. The PSOE-led regional governments had better approval rates,  but in most cases that wasn't enough

- The unmitigated disaster of what once was Podemos and the allied forces to the left of the PSOE. The relationship with UP has been sometines complicated, but these forces to the left of the PSOE are neccessary to form progressive governments. The PSOE lost the key regional election in Valencia and other places because UP collapsed and dissapeared. Still, the Podemos lleadership lives in a perpetual denial of reality. Nearly impossible task for Yolanda Díaz to gather the pieces and arm a strong candidacy before the general elections, I am afraid

- The unpopularity of the deals with forces like ERC and Bildu. The latter made a gift to the PP with the onclusion of gormer ETA members in local lists (ironically Bildu performed well in the Basque Country, I guess that's partly due to low turnout). Despite of that, the complex network of parliamentary alliances gave a remarkable stabikity to the coalition government. The problem is that the government has been unable to find a way to explain the positive adpects of the so-called Frankenstein coalitions (pretty obvious for me, but not for everybody)

As for the Canary Islands, the electoral system is simply too weird. Anyway the results of the regional constituency are interesting,  for they are slightly different from the results of the insular constituencies;

Insular constituencies

PSOE 27 2% 19
CC 21.8% 17
PP 19 4% 14
NC 8.1% 4
VOX 7.9% 3
ASG 0.7% 3
AHI 0.2% 1
USP 3.9%
DVC 3.2%


Regional constituency

PSOE 32.4% 4
PP 20.3% 2
CC 19% 2
VOX 7.9% 1
NC 7.2%
DVC 3.3%
USP 3.2%

It's remarkable that PSOE candidate Ángel Víctor Torres performs better than the PSOE insular lists. The PP surpasses CC in the regional list. It's also remarkable that Vox gets more votes than NC in the regional list, winning a seat and ousting NC leader Román Rodríguez from regional parliament.  Finally Drago Verdes Canarias, a Podemos splinter led by Alberto Rodríguez,  gets more votes than Unidas Si Podemos in the regional list.  The split between USP and DVC has proved lethal for the left.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

These will be the second elections where 70 deputies will be elected and they will also be the second to be held with the new electoral law approved in 2018 through the reform of the Statute of Autonomy of the Canary Islands (Organic Law 1/2018, of November 5, reform of the Statute of Autonomy of the Canary Islands 1 ​). Until 2018, the electoral system was known as the "triple parity" system since three rules were met: the sum of the deputies from the capital islands had to be the same as the non-capital islands; the sum of deputies from the province of Santa Cruz de Tenerife should be the same as that of the province of Las Palmas and the sum of deputies from the two capital islands ( Gran Canaria andTenerife ) should be the same between them. Therefore, until 2019, Gran Canaria and Tenerife would be represented by 15 deputies each; Lanzarote and La Palma with 8; Fuerteventura with 7; La Gomera with 4 and El Hierro with 3. This caused paradoxes in the distribution of deputies in parliament, since La Palma had one more seat than Fuerteventura despite the latter having a larger population than the palm island at least since the 2000s .. On the other hand, the islands had great differences in terms of the representation ratio of deputies in the insular constituencies: Tenerife has one deputy for every 62,109 people while El Hierro has one for every 3,807 inhabitants). 2

For this reason, this system has been altered and the problems that this system may present in terms of the representation of each island corrected. With the addition of one more deputy for Fuerteventura , two of the three triple parity criteria have been broken, since the non-capital islands have one more seat than the capital ones and the province of Las Palmas has one more than that of Santa tenerife cross. On the other hand, an autonomous constituency was created made up of nine deputies elected from among all the islands and thus neutralize the differences in representation between the capital and peripheral islands. Finally, the island electoral barriers have dropped from 30% of valid votes to 15%, and from 6% at the regional level to 4%. Therefore, if a formation obtains at least 4% of the vote obtained in the autonomous constituency, it will also be able to opt for a seat.

From Spanish Wikipedia, describing the Canary Islands system. (google translate from Spanish to English)
Weird system.

[Logical]

Pedro Sanchez announces snap elections for 23rd of July!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Pedro Sanchez announces snap elections for 23rd of July!

That was not on my bingo card.

[Velasco]

Pedro Sanchez announces snap elections for 23rd of July!

That was not on my bingo card.

That wasn't in anyone's card

No doubt Pedro Sánchez is an audacious man. Jesus Christ

[Skye]

Maybe he wants to end his misery already?

Anyway, like Velasco said, obituaries about Sánchez have been written before. This is certainly a *wild* decision though, I can't see how it benefits the left.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Pedro Sanchez announces snap elections for 23rd of July!

That was not on my bingo card.

That wasn't in anyone's card

No doubt Pedro Sánchez is an audacious man. Jesus Christ

Perhaps he's betting that the left will get its act together if this is how urgent the situation is.

[icc]

Pedro Sanchez announces snap elections for 23rd of July!

That was not on my bingo card.

That wasn't in anyone's card

No doubt Pedro Sánchez is an audacious man. Jesus Christ

Perhaps he's betting that the left will get its act together if this is how urgent the situation is.

If nothing else it will concentrate minds while the lesson is fresh. I’m not sure the far left are in the mood for learning though.