Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Former President tack50]

Valls is calling for a Catalan Mario Draghi two sentences after dismissing the entire Catalan nationalist movement as unable to govern, and saying ERC cannot be left-wing because it is seperatist. He is a total cuck.

Someone calling for a "Catalan Mario Draghi" either doesn't understand Catalan politics or doesn't understand Italian politics. Or both.

Can't wait for Manuel Valls to run for mayor of Milano or something whenever Italy has local elections

[Former President tack50]

I am still surprised that despite getting only like 3% of the vote, PDeCat still managed to win in several municipalities, even if those were all very small ones

[Former President tack50]

Ok, so events out of nowhere are moving very quickly, but there is going to be a PSOE-Cs led no confidence vote in the Region of Murcia (as well as its capital of Murcia city), allegedly because of PP being very corrupt there.

PSOE-Cs do add up to a majority in both places but I think there might be defections from Cs; though UP might support it anyways.

If this no confidence vote is successful, a PSOE-Cs government will be assembled, for the first time since 1995 PP will be in opposition. It is going to be a 2 year rental though as Murcia is the best region for the Spanish right in general and for Vox in particular.

https://www.20minutos.es/noticia/4611578/0/ciudadanos-rompe-pp-murcia-presentara-mocion-censura-con-psoe-ayuntamiento-region/


In response to this, premier of Madrid Isabel Díaz Ayuso (PP) has decided to dissolve the regional assembly and call for a snap election for an unnamed day in May; a suprising move imo as I don't think a no confidence vote in Madrid was likely but whatever.

Still Madrid's alleged new regional election will be a fun one to watch and one that is theoretically winnable by the left or by a weird PSOE-Cs-MM coalition.

https://www.20minutos.es/noticia/4611986/0/comunidad-madrid-rueda-prensa-posterior-consejo-gobierno/

Vox has also expressed that they want snap elections in all PP controlled regions but I doubt any other regions go for it. Never let a crisis go to waste though

Either way my rating for the new Madrid election would be Likely PP. It is loseable for Ayuso, but she should be the favourite.

[Former President tack50]

Nothing good can come out of this.

Ayuso's downfall.

Eh, not really, she should be the favourite to win the election for all intents and purposes. I can think of scenarios where Ayuso loses but there aren't that mamy of them.

[Former President tack50]

Maybe the problem is the existence of a legal vacuum concerning the autonomous communities ruled by the "general regime". Let's say there exist two kinds of autonomous communities, the "historical nationalities " (Catalonia, Basque Country, Galicia and Andalusia) and those ruled by the "general regime" (rest of regions). In other words, those regions that back in the day followed the "fast track" to autonomy (article 151 of the constitution) and the ones following the "slow track" (article 143). Some of the latter have reformed their statutes of autonomy (case of Valencia, which called a snap election in April 2019 in coincidence with general elections), but it seems Madrid is lacking a clear procedure to call snap elections. In case Ayuso wins the legal dispute, Madrid will have to call elections again in 2023 alongside the other regions that haven't amended their statutes

7

 https://www.europapress.es/madrid/noticia-juristas-creen-prima-voluntad-disolucion-mociones-tener-efectos-dicta-decreto-20210310161030.html  

"Jurists believe dissolution prevails over no confidence motion, as it has effects since the decree is issued"

 Just heard to other jurist with the same argument and it makes sense, since otherwise the regional premier couldn't call elections without the consent of the opposition. The problem is that the legislation says literally the decree comes into effect when it's released in the Official Bulletin. That's why the High Court or the Constitutional Court will rule in one way or another.  They could rule in favour of Ayuso (or not)

It isn't really a legal vacuum that concerns the "general regime" communities; but rather a legal vacuum concerning the exact specifics of how a snap election gets called.

Madrid's legislation (and I think that of all regions?) specifies that when a snap election gets called, parliament gets dissolved when the dissolution order is published (which takes roughly 24 hours in most cases). However, the legislation also establishes that no snap elections may occur while a no confidence vote is pending. Therefore, there is the legal vacuum of what happens if someone puts in place a no confidence vote during that brief 24 hour period in order to avoid the snap election.

To be honest on this particular debate I lean towards the arguments put in place by Ayuso and PP. I think that quickly tabling a no confidence vote goes against at least the spirit of the norm; and is certainly a dirty play by PSOE/MM. Madrid's premier wanted elections and so elections can and should happen. There is also your argument that if this was the case, theoretically snap elections would require the consent of the opposition.

I do agree that this will 100% end up in court which will have to decide what happens now.

Once the Bureau of the Regional Assembly admitted the motions of no confidence, it's not clear the elections are going to take place. The left and Cs claim the decree is not in force until it's released by the Official Gazette, while the PP argues it's in force since Ayuso signed it this morning. Possibly the Supreme Court will have to rule on this dispute,

In case there is a snap election, Ayuso seems to be the favourite. In case there's a no confidence motion and some consensus between PSOE, Cs and MM, Ayuso will be ousted. In that case, she and her supporters will go in full Trumpist mode. The rightwing outlets are already claiming there's a coup attempt

The right-wing outlets actually deserve Chavismo.

Ironically there is a bit of a "Boy who cried wolf" effect in this case.

While calling it a coup is still a vast hyperbole, in this case there are genuine legal arguments that can be made that would unambiguously put the maneouver by PSOE and MM in Madrid as a dirty play that undermines democracy slightly and even as a mild regional coup.

However, when Sanchez first came into power, the opposition also spared no time calling the no confidence vote against Rajoy a coup as well, when in that case the accusation was 100% nonsense

(there is also the whole debate about whether Catalonia 2017 qualifies as a coup or not which I won't get into; but there Spanish right certainly also spares no time calling the Catalan secessionists putschists)

[Former President tack50]

Why should elections be based on the whim of one intellectually challenged, yet insane figure's desire to boost her majority on the back of having less tight restrictions and some rancid instrumentalisation of the pandemic for political gain?

It shouldn't be up to the premier to call early elections, it should be up to the legislative body to have the opportunity to form a new majority. Can you imagine if Sanchez had handled the pandemic well, seen a wave of popularity because of his Covid policy (whether strict or not) and then opportunistically called an early election? The right-wing press would of course slaughter him. And rightly so. But its only a putsch or a coup if the Left do it.



But that's the point : the spanish press are turning Spain into a latin american democracy. They are constantly baying for blood and whipping up tensions, by saying that the Transition is at risk, that Bolshevism is back in Spain (that intellectually sub-par book by Frederico Jimenez Losantos is a best seller), that they're gonna run out of toilet paper and then of course playing to the diasporas of latin americans too by equating Podemos with Chavismo. But the only actors acting like Latin American populists are PP and Vox figures, sky high in the polls.

Again, I actually blame Rivera for starting this, for turning an entire spectrum into a competition as to who can come out with the most hardline extreme stances to steal headlines, initially about Catalonia, then about the illegitimacy of the Sanchez government (voted in by majority). But there's no "both sides" about this : the people playing with fire with the democratic institutions and importing the worst aspects of Latin American democracy are the Spanish Right.

My issue isn't really with the no confidence vote being tabled per se, but rather with the fact that it was done so as a way to stop elections, which is a bit of a breach of norms. Every premier in Spain has the right to call snap elections (with limitations), including crazy insane Ayuso

Of course the election call was opportunistic and she had already threatened with elections several times before and Ayuso can and should be called out on that by the press (which she won't; I think the no confidence vote thing has slightly backfired on the left). This is an opportunistic election call that she should be called out on (in fact during the hour after the election call but before the no confidence vote that was my thought, that this was an unnecessary election). But the no confidence to stop elections maneouver is equally as opportunistic.

Either way, I guess courts (and if need be, the people of Madrid) will decide what happens now; as things should be.


As for the Latin American argument I agree with that 100%. If I got 1 Venezuelan Bolivar each time I saw Spain compared to Venezuela I'd be rich by now. I've also seen sometimes comparisons to Argentina, I've certainly seen several arguments about how "Sanchez is a Peronist and how the failed ideology of peronism which turned Argentina from First World to Third World will do the same here unless we stop the Peronist Sanchez by voting Vox". Again if I got an Argentinian peso each time I saw such an argument I'd be very wealthy now.

Speaking of Losantos, his radio program will be even more hilarious than usual tomorrow

[Former President tack50]

[
 Every premier in Spain has the right to call snap elections (with limitations), including crazy insane Ayuso

I think there's an argument to be made here. As I said before, in case Madrid holds elections in May 2021, it will have to go again to the polls in May 2023 regardless. That's crazy and a waste of time and money. Either the legislation gives the premier freedom to call whenever she pleases (providing the maximum term duration is 4 years), or the Madrid region adopts fixed terms. As long as there is not a well defined model so there exists a vacuum, I find both sides are equality entitled to be opportunistic.  Said this, I think nothing good is going to come from this

I actually went through the 19 regional statutes recently and found out that at least in paper, all 17 regions (excluding Ceuta/Melilla) have the right to call snap elections.

Of these, 11/17 have in their legislation that when a snap election gets called, they don't need to call another one until 4 years later. However some regions like Madrid have that weird "fixed-ish terms" stipulation where they must call another election the next time a local election happens.

Here is the map (the Canary Islands aren't pictured but should be green as well):



I agree that it there is a vacuum and that it is a waste of time and money. In an ideal world, the newly elected Madrid assembly should quickly draft a small reform of their regional statute so that they can call snap elections whenever they want as well as closing this loophole (and so should the government of Murcia and the other red regions in the map)

[Former President tack50]

Last time there has been a non-PP, non-PSOE regional president from a national party was in 1987, in the Canary Islands. Former PM Suarez’s CDS (Democratic and Social Center) was at the helm.

Yeah, back in the 1980s for some reason CDS had its 2 main strongholds in the Canary Islands and Castille-Leon (certainly a very odd combination). In the latter its voters eventually just went to PP, but in the former instead they were part of what created CC, the party that would stay in power from 1993 all the way to 2019

Even more impressively, the Canaries were also the biggest UCD stronghold in the 1970s, to the point of sweeping 3/3 Senate seats in Gran Canaria, something no other party has even attempted. They also won all municipalities in '77 and all but 1 in '79.

Though to be fair I would not count this Cs rule in the same category as CDS in the Canaries. CDS did genuinely manage to get 2nd place in the 1987 regional election* and leading a genuinely coherent CDS-AIC-AP-AHI coalition government. Meanwhile Cs was the 3rd largest party in Murcia in 2019, and is being propped up by the 1st largest party (this situation also happened in Cantabria in 2003, with 2nd placed PSOE propping up Revilla).

<sub>*: In terms of seats. Thanks to the amazing electoral system in the islands, AIC was 2nd in the popular vote but got less seats than CDS. AIC was incredibly strong in Tenerife island (42%) but incredibly weak in Gran Canaria (1.6%) and also relatively weak in all the minor islands outside La Palma.

Meanwhile CDS was very evenly spread out, beating AIC in most of the minor islands and having its weak spot in underrepresented Tenerife.</sub>

[Former President tack50]

Just in case anyone missed it, in Murcia C’s is getting its first regional presidency (if you don’t count Melilla, where they govern with just 1 seat, à la Thuringian FDP). The PSOE agreed to support their leader in the region in exchange for C’s supporting a socialist mayor in Murcia’s capital.

Last time there has been a non-PP, non-PSOE regional president from a national party was in 1987, in the Canary Islands. Former PM Suarez’s CDS (Democratic and Social Center) was at the helm.

Murcia, 2019 general election
PP+Vox = 55%
Psoe + Up = 35%
Cs = 7,5 %

Yes, barring a left wing landslide nationally or something very weird happening in 2023, this is a 2 year rental. No need to state the obvious, this government is DoA come 2023 and only question is whether Murcia will get a PP or a Vox premier but it is too far to say anything with certainty.

Murcia is the most conservative region of Spain and there doesn't seem to be any local factor that could lead to an odd result (like say GIL was in equally conservative Ceuta in 1999)

[Former President tack50]

Well, it gets better still. There is confirmation that Cs is in talk with 3 Vox MPs who were expelled from the party after losing some power struggle; to have the former Vox MPs support the no confidence vote. If they did do that, then there would be a majority again.

Honestly if this gets confirmed, it would be beyond hilarious. Vox is helping those on the left to STOP THE STEAL! Never thought I'd say that

https://www.heraldo.es/noticias/nacional/2021/03/12/cs-propone-a-los-3-diputados-murcianos-expulsados-de-vox-apoyar-la-mociongobierno-murcia-1477268.html

[Former President tack50]

Well, it gets better still. There is confirmation that Cs is in talk with 3 Vox MPs who were expelled from the party after losing some power struggle; to have the former Vox MPs support the no confidence vote. If they did do that, then there would be a majority again.

Honestly if this gets confirmed, it would be beyond hilarious. Vox is helping those on the left to STOP THE STEAL! Never thought I'd say that

https://www.heraldo.es/noticias/nacional/2021/03/12/cs-propone-a-los-3-diputados-murcianos-expulsados-de-vox-apoyar-la-mociongobierno-murcia-1477268.html

What a total trainwreck this is becoming. These 3 MPs are now independent, right? Or are they still Vox party members?

Yeah, pretty sure they are basically independents. They certainly have nowhere to go inside Vox so I could see them being tempted with some good old corruption

[Former President tack50]

Ironically the Metroscopia poll would be along the lines of what I'd predict in a vacuum. A total and complete Cs collapse, flawless beautiful Ayuso landslide and everyone else roughly stable.

I do think UP will improve compared to 2019 though; there is no way they can go much lower. If anything I'd expect MM to be the one going slightly down on the Madrid left.

[Former President tack50]

This went under the radar by the way, but we also have now a Simple Lógica national poll which is the first (and only one so far) to predict Vox beating PP. Needless to say after what happened yesterday and today this poll is worthless (reminds me a bit of a brief poll which had PSOE 4th right before the Sanchez led no confidence vote)



Evolution of the vote




Approval ratings (this is the only pollster to ask a US style "Approve or disapprove?" question as opposed to "Rate this politician 0-10")

[Former President tack50]

Well, it gets better still. There is confirmation that Cs is in talk with 3 Vox MPs who were expelled from the party after losing some power struggle; to have the former Vox MPs support the no confidence vote. If they did do that, then there would be a majority again.

Well, that attempt also failed:

The three critical MPs of Vox in Murcia will support López Miras and vote against the motion.

I guess that would have been too crazy even for Spanish politics

[Former President tack50]

normal EU liberals must avoid contact with the far-right.

To be fair, there doesn’t seem to be a completely coherent position within the European liberals with regards to the far-right. While it is true that some Renew Europe parties maintain a cordon sanitaire policy, the Finnish and Estonian Centre parties, Venstre in Denmark and VVD in the Netherlands (among others) have all in recent times governed with support from, or even in coalition with, so-called far-right parties (the Finns Party, EKRE, the Danish People’s Party and the Party for Freedom, respectively).

You can do like Italy and simply have no liberal parties. Well, we actually have, but all of them are so small and useless and not comparable to anything you mentioned nor even Ciudadanos. But just in case, the current government includes both Italia Viva and Lega, so there you have it (although obviously it is a "national unity" government so it is a bit special).

For what is worth, I had a discussion yesterday with someone and I summed up Italy's government as saying the equivalent here would be to have PM Luis de Guindos, under a PSOE-UP-Vox coalition

[Former President tack50]

Also looking at polling it seems the priors are correct and PP will be the great winner of this. Cs has decided to commit suicide (RIP) while the parties of the left are basically stable (though I would expect UP to be comfortably above the threshold, not super close to it?)

I guess the question will be whether PP-Vox get a majority or not, how does Vox perform relative to expectations (I think Ayuso has sucked out most of the right wing oxygen in Madrid so Vox is in for a relatively tough election where they need to keep low expectations) and perhaps how close can PP get to an overall majority, especially if UP falls below the theshold

[Former President tack50]

Also looking at polling it seems the priors are correct and PP will be the great winner of this. Cs has decided to commit suicide (RIP) while the parties of the left are basically stable (though I would expect UP to be comfortably above the threshold, not super close to it?)

I guess the question will be whether PP-Vox get a majority or not, how does Vox perform relative to expectations (I think Ayuso has sucked out most of the right wing oxygen in Madrid so Vox is in for a relatively tough election where they need to keep low expectations) and perhaps how close can PP get to an overall majority, especially if UP falls below the theshold

I mean, it seems to me that the recent history of C's is a big collection of suicide attempts.

PP-Vox not getting a majority would mean Ayuso being sacked and a PSOE-Más-Podemos coalition government, right? Unless C's resuscitates somehow.

Yeah, if PP-Vox don't get a majority and Cs doesn't make the threshold then yeah, a left wing PSOE-MM-UP government will easily be formed; I just don't think it is a super likely proposition (though not impossible)

The interesting scenario would be if neither the 3 parties of the left nor PP-Vox get a majority and Cs is needed to form a government. Of course, you first need Cs to make the threshold

[Former President tack50]

Financial Times reports about the 'libertarian' regime of Ayuso in Madrid. Apparently some French folks are scaping to the Spanish capital in search of fiesta. Read the full article for a complete picture

https://www.ft.com/content/3b5bc5cc-ce88-44c5-91c9-20d1034e1d99

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   https://www.ft.com/content/3b5bc5cc-ce88-44c5-91c9-20d1034e1d99

A new French generation is heading to Spain, the land that sent Napoleon packing but inspired Édouard Manet, Georges Bizet and Gustave Doré.

Young people from north of the border are pouring into the heart of Madrid, packing the terraces of cafés, wandering through fashionable streets and booking Airbnbs. Their goal? To have a good time — pasarlo bien — and to enjoy life’s diversions in ways not possible at home (...)


Not so in Spain. After imposing one of the world’s toughest lockdowns between March and June last year — during which children were banned for 45 days from venturing outdoors — the country has steered clear of orders to stay at home. Instead, the central government has largely relied on the regions to put their own policies in place against the pandemic’s second and third waves. After a frightening high level of infections in January, rates have been falling for weeks.

Even so, Madrid stands out for its relaxed approach. The centre-right head of the region’s government, Isabel Díaz Ayuso — one of the country’s most polarising political figures — has vowed that the hospitality industry will not be ruined on her watch. So while in Catalonia restaurant dining is prohibited from 5pm, in Madrid you can eat out until 11pm. On sunny weekends, the plazas are full of families and friends nibbling on tapas or ordering la penúltima — the last-but-one drink.
(...)

Perhaps unsurprisingly, Madrid has the highest infection rates in mainland Spain, although case numbers are about a quarter of the level of five weeks ago.

For all the street life in Madrid, people are not permitted to have a friend drop round at home and parties are emphatically forbidden. But the fiestas happen all the same, with an average of almost 400 closed down by the city’s police every weekend, often in tourist apartments (...)  

When France sends its people, they are not sending their best

[Former President tack50]

Spanish politics might be many things, but "boring" surely is not one of them

A political earthquake is happening live.

Pablo Iglesias will leave the government and will be the Podemos candidate for the presidency of the Community of Madrid:

Bets? Podemos is, according to polls, on the verge of being left out of the Assembly. Now that Iglesias will be their candidate, it's very much likely that their numbers will surge. How much, it remains in question. Will Podemos overtake Más Madrid?

I wouldn't be so sure that UP will surge up. If I am not mistaken, Pablo Iglesias is a rather unpopular leader, even among UP supporters he has mediocre approvals.

To be honest I don't know how people will react to this but one thing is for sure, Yolanda Díaz will be the UP candidate at the next general election (pretty much the only palatable UP candidate anyways)

[Former President tack50]

Electomania is far from the most reputable pollster (technically it is not even a pollster), but lol at the Ayuso landslide. Not sure how to react if that ends up as the result 

An overall majority in a region that has a rather proportional system, well past the days of the old 2 party system, that while conservative isn't Murcia levels of conservative, is very polarized and has a premier that while popular with half of Madrid is also despised by the other half (Ayuso is not the kind of unifying figure that people like Feijoo in Galicia or Fernandez Vara in Extremadura can be) would be absolutely insane.

[Former President tack50]

So a nothingburger and nothing we didn't know already from Vox's de facto rally?

Wow

[Former President tack50]

I am liking Gabilondo's campaign quite a bit, given the big confrontation between Ayuso and Iglesias. Makes for a nice change of pace that will sadly be ignored

snippity snip

I've been wondering about something kind of related to this. Spain seems to have a system where right does better with middle and upper class even though it's based on the old-fashioned principle of "God, King and Country". Is there a significant disconnect between voters and party elites or is your typical Madileño suburbanite as reactionary as they seem? If so, is it just on the issue of national unity/Catalonia, or does it extend to "social issues"?

To be fair, I do think that the average Spanish professional that formerly voted Cs is genuinely concerned with at least the final 2/3 of "God, King and Country". I have absolutely no doubts that the kind of young professional that once voted Cs and now went back home to PP (with a Vox minority) while not really religious at all; is definitely a monarchist and a strong supporter of Spanish unity.

As to whether it extends to "social issues", well it depends on the exact social issue. Something like say, criminalizing abortion again or being against gay marriage is incredibly unpopular nationwide and definitely underwater among this crowd as well, especially given that they are probably more socially liberal "on the issues".

If you consider the monarchy or Catalonia social issues though; they are staunchly conservative; just as much as you would expect them to be.

I do think that the average suburbanite is either all over the place, or at least undecided on other social issues like that though; both in terms of social liberalism (I would not be too surprised if these suburbanites were in favour of marijuana legalization, or something like surrogate motherhood); and in terms of social conservatism (Charter schools generally perform better than public ones so I would not be surprised at all if these suburbanites supported them; and there is definitely a libertarian argument to be made for Vox's "Parental PIN" which allows kids whose parents don't approve to skip lessons on say, LGBT stuff)

What really motivates this kind of voter (other than the Catalan issue perhaps, as well as finding PP too corrupt to vote for) is economic issues; with them wanting big tax cuts and what not.

In terms of urban and suburban conservatives to be honest I can think of basically 3 different kinds of heavily right wing urban areas, coming in 3 flavours:

>"Old money" urban areas, basically close to the city centre in upper class 19th century expansions (example: Madrid's Salamanca neighbourhood)
>New suburban developments, with lots of young professionals (example: Much of Northern Madrid, like for example Las Tablas)
>Suburban developments for the super rich (example: The towns immediately to the west of Madrid: Las Rozas, Majadahonda, etc)

If I had to guess I imagine the 1st would be the most socially conservative and religious of the bunch, with the 2nd being the most secularized and progressive "on the issues".

[Former President tack50]

Can someone explain to me how such a "liberal and multicultural" city like Madrid turns in big vote totals for Vox, especially around Chamberí and Salamanca.

I don't think this will answer your answer, but Madrid is indeed one of, if not the most conservative Western European capital (I think only Stockholm is comparable in being a large capital city that is very conservative). I guess for Americans it's extremely hard to imagine DC proper voting around 55% Republican; with parts of NoVA and certain wards in DC proper voting 75% Republican

My theory is that class politics have stuck in Spain (and Madrid in particular) to an extent that they haven't in any other major Western European city? And Madrid being a fairly wealthy city you end up with a good amount of conservatism. Add to that Madrid being very easily on the "Spanish unionism" side of the Catalonia debate and that probably adds to that.

But why Madrid is so right wing compared to other European capitals (hell, even compared to a place like Lisbon, since Portugal also has kept class politics to an even larger extent than Spain!)

However, why Chamberí and Salamanca are extremely right wing is very easy to explain. They are just the wealthiest parts of Madrid, with a ton of "old money" rich people living in them and the 19th century planned expansions there.

It is worth noting that while Madrid is a rather conservative city it is one that is extremely politically polarized, possibly the most polarized even. Places like Vallecas (working part places of Madrid) are among the most left wing places of Spain; while Salamanca and Chamberí are among the most deeply conservative, beating even places like the Spanish southeast (Murcia/Almería) or deep rural Castille.

[Former President tack50]

What makes this even more ironic is the success of left-wing parties in virtually every other major city in Spain: Barcelona especially, Valencia (compromis), seville, etc. I also hear that Madrid is so pro-LGBT and socially liberal but how could it be, voting for these parties that are so anti-liberal. Even then, Stockholm is not really that conservative, the far-right party in Sweden received a lower percentage in Stockholm than in the country as a whole, also the Green Party does better than average. Stockholm is governed by Moderaterna which, frankly, is a very moderate right party.

Eh, Barcelona is extremely progressive sure; but I wouldn't call "virtually every other major city in Spain" particularly left wing.

I actually went over the 20 largest cities in Spain (excluding L'Hospitalet de Llobregat since that is basically a suburb of Barcelona) and they are all anywhere from centre-left to centre-right; with only 2 major outliers in Barcelona and Murcia. Here are the results by "bloc" in the 10 largest towns in Spain in the November 2019 election:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

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Madrid: Right 52-47
Barcelona: Left 66-33
Valencia: Right 50-49
Sevilla: Left 50-47
Málaga: Right 50-47
Murcia: Right 63-35
Palma de Mallorca: Left 50-48
Las Palmas de GC: Left 50-48
Bilbao: Right 51-48

Alicante: Right 53-45
Córdoba: Right 55-43
Valladolid: Right 55-44
Vigo: Left 65-34
Gijón: Left 54-45
Vitoria: Left 55-43
A Coruña: Left 58-41
Elche: Right 54-45
Granada: Right 56-43

Sure, Madrid is rather right wing compared to most other Spanish major cities; but it's not like Madrid's "Right+5" result is a massive outlier.

Also, if you are thinking of mayors there like Ribó in Valencia or Colau in Barcelona; why are you forgetting about Carmena in Madrid? Sure, she might not have been reelected but she was still elected once! (and most of UP's pickups in 2015 ended up collapsing; iirc they only held Cádiz as well as Barcelona, with the latter only due to Valls leaving Cs)

Worth noting that generic "social issues" just have very little to no importance in Spain (or most of Europe for that matter). Spain is arguably one of the most pro-LGBT countries and that translates to the gay pride parades and what not, which are a huge event in the city and heavily publicized, even by conservative administrations. There is no "religious right" in Spain (well, there is, but its influence is tiny); and bashing "the gays and abortion" is not going to be a huge vote winner. Bashing Catalonia meanwhile, or even illegal immigration, will net you votes though.

Something I will note also is that conservative administrations in Madrid have long been very "libertarian" at least in rethoric (even if not necessarily always in terms of policies); talking a lot about FREEDOM!. Remember one of Ayuso's biggest slogans during this campaign is the hyperbolic "Socialism or Freedom" one; but even someone like Esperanza Aguirre (premier of Madrid region 2003-2012) back in the day long took pride on being a liberal/libertarian; and publicly criticized the party on stuff like abortion.

I guess if polls are right we will finally see a test of how far does the alleged libertarian values of Madrid's PP go, on whether they cave to Vox's more socially reactionary proposals or if they stay firm but just go turboliberal in terms of the economy.

[Former President tack50]

Given how one of the big issues from Madrid's campaign seems to be taxes (especially for PP; Madrid's PP branch has long been the staunchest advocate of low taxes), with Ayuso pledging a tax cut, Iglesias and MM wanting to increase taxes and PSOE wanting to keep taxes as they are (although there is a clash here between the national party and Madrid's candidate Gabilondo); I found this graph from Expansión which comes in very handy.

It basically shows the "fiscal pressure" of each Spanish region. For some dumb reason 100 = the average EU fiscal pressure and not the Spanish average but it still shows the differences in taxation across the country



Not too many surprises, though I find it funny how Castille-Leon (PP's best region historically and staunchly conservative) has a slightly higher pressure than Castille-La Mancha (a region that has trended right over the years but still easily votes PSOE at the regional level)