Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[mileslunn]

In return what would PSOE + Sumar need to form government?  My guess is regionalist parties might abstain but unlikely to endorse them.  So what would they need for that as I suspect at 160 not enough but 165 potentially enough for PSOE + Sumar?

[Velasco]

This leaves us with PNV, who are under great electoral pressure from Bildu. It's very difficult to see them voting for a PP-Vox government but they may be persuaded to abstain with large bribes and assurances that Basque autonomy will not be touched, nonetheless this is still a very tough ask from PNV. If they somehow manage to convince PNV to abstain the threshold is lowered to 171 seats as PNV will win 5-6 seats. If they fall short of that threshold then a repeat election is almost certain.

There is another way however. PSOE could abstain from the investiture vote if PP promises to keeps Vox out of government. But I do not see this happening under Sanchez.

Maybe the CC deputies could be bribed or persuaded, but there's no way the PNV will support (or even abstain in) the investiture of a PP-Vox government. That's not even a remote possibility. I think regionalist parties like PNV or CC would be more willing to cooperate in the investiture of a PP minority government led by Feijóo, that would be feasible only in case the PP gets a strong result (near majority) and/or there's a replacement in the PSOE leadership (things have changed a lot since Pedro Sánchez was ousted by the party's old guard)

[PSOL]

salvage the remnants of the Spanish republic.

I lived in a fantasy where Spain was a constitutional monarchy, but now I can see we are back in 1938 or 1939 trying to resist the advance of the unstoppable Franco's army over Barcelona and Madrid

Under that sort of thinking, it’s very much over then.

After thinking this through, best to not look into the past and create a future that people would be energetic for.

[MRCVzla]

One more update about lists and some campaign buzz in the last days:
PSOE: Controversy after the Government Delegate in Madrid said in a business incounter what EH Bildu (and ERC) made more things for Spain and "saved more lives" in the last 5 years than the so-called "patriotic" right-wing (reference mostly to PP about boycotting the Judicial Power renovation) infuriated the right and terrorist victims bringing back Bildu to the campaign and their potential support if Sánchez get the numbers, ofc the government official made their apologizes to the press hours later the incident.

PP: Former Cs MP and then Ayuso' Culture regional minister Marta Rivera de la Cruz will be the 2nd on Madrid list after Feijoo, she also was on Almeida' list (3rd) for Madrid city in the May local elections, along Barcelona list holder Nacho Martín Blanco or also Tarragona list holder Lluís Huguet among others, they are banking well their liberal quota to atract Cs "vidows". In Madrid (37 seats), PP is expected to get more than 15 seats, with Feijoo and Rivera they follow Borja Sémper (3rd), former Madrid Assembly speaker Eugenia Carballedo (4th), Feijoo' cabinet chief Marta Varela (5th) as well Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo (6th), other known names within the party are former cabinet chief under Aznar Carlos Aragónes (9th), former RENFE president Pablo Vásquez (13th) who is also in charge of the party' Foundation and one of their economic references or crossbench MP from Navarra Carlos García Adanero who will try to get a seat from Madrid as 16th, mayor Martínez Almeida will close symbolically the list. Also returning to the Congress are former parliamentary spokeperson and Senator Rafael Hernando as 2nd in Almeria or former party deputy general secretary Carlos Floriano as 2nd in Badajoz.

Vox: Some changes in the green ultraconservative party lists, Javier Ortega-Smith is relegated from 2nd to 4th on the list, party organization secretary María de la Cabeza Ruíz Solas will be 2nd on the list after Abascal, the 3rd will be the parliamentary spokeperson Ivan Espinosa de los Monteros, in 5th Senator Pepa Millán, out of the lists outgoing MP from Badajoz Víctor Sánchez del Real.

Sumar/En Comú: More independents linked to Yolanda Díaz were announced, Carlos Martín Urriza with CCOO union background will be 6th on Madrid and the alliance' economic "guru", in the mian Galician constituencies will head for Coruña Marta Lois (named "president" of the instrumental Sumar Movement) and Véronica Mártinez is leading the Pontevedra list, the Zaragoza list holder assigned to the Chunta Aragonesista (CHA) will be regional TV presenter Jorge Pueyo, PCE secretary Enrique Santiago will be the list holder in Córdoba and probably the main reference of IU within the lists as neither Alberto Garzón or the party spokeperson MEP Sira Rego are running. In Catalonia, Jaume Asens has declined to head the Barcelona list and announced he's quiting politics, Aina Vidal who was 2nd in the 2019 lists (and the key vote to approve Sánchez' coalition investiture) is the new list holder, on the lists will repeat outgoing member of the Congress' bureau Gerardo Pisarello (2nd) along former Barcelona city councilor Gala Pin (3rd) and the previously announced Podemos' Lilith Verstrynge (4th). Alianza Verde leader Juancho López de Uralde will not be a candidate for Álava (Podemos' Roberto Uriarte will head the list, but has slim chances to be elected), as neither Vicky Rosell (who will be reemplaced in Las Palmas for Noemí Santana, in Podemos quota) and Antón Gómez-Reino of Galicia en Común (reemplaced by the already mentioned Marta Lois in Coruña).

Catalan indies: ERC list in Barcelona will be head again by Gabriel Rufían, following him are former regional councilor Teresa Jordà (2nd), journalist and author Francesc-Marc Álvaro (3rd) as their non-party signing as well incumbent MPs Pilar Valluguera (4th), Joan Capdevilla (5th) and María Dantas (6th), the potential 7th seat could be Héctor Sánchez representing EUiA (the former IU catalan ally), repeats as lists holder Montse Bassa from Girona and Jordi Salvador from Tarragona, Inés Granollers will be the new list holder in Lleida. At Junts side, they will run a heavy pro-indy campaign even discrediting ERC on the way and advocating a more "institutional" shock with the central government, with incumbent MP Miriam Nogueras leading Barcelona, another pro-indy journalist and outgoing MP Pilar Calvo will follow her as 2nd, former party group spokeperson in the Parlament Eduard Pujol (who got Me Too'd but the claims were archived and processed) is likely being 3rd and another MP, jurist Josep Pagès will be 4th, former Girona mayor Marta Madrenas will lead the list in that province.

Apart of the Valencian mess, PP+Vox also had their impasses this week as Vox as keep out of the Murcia Assembly' board and threatens to force an electoral repeat if no agreement is reached there, the Balearic PP who also needs Vox abstention to govern will likely follow the Murcia example in case the negotiations are still blocked, as they are in Extremadura. In Cantabria, PP already has signed their pact will PRC to govern alone without Vox influence, Navarra is still an undecided race as PSOE is trying to avoid as possible a support from Bildu.

Today is a key day as the municipal councils around all Spain are being formed and they will elect their mayors. Barcelona or Pamplona being the main unknowns but Trias seems to will impose in BCN thanks to the crossed vetoes between Comuns, PSC or PP, in many others PP+Vox reached agreements but in some others PP as avoided Vox and will try to govern as the "strongest party" or doing surprise allies on the way. Very interesting to watch.

[Velasco]

Not sure what PP was expecting by legitimizing the ultraderecha, now every PP politician has to answer whether they believe violence against women exists (thanks to one of the leaders of Vox Valenciana this is controversial now).

Indeed. Vox spokesman in the Valencian Courts,  a certain José María Llanos,  denied the existence of gender-based violence. It's not the first tome Vox represrntatives make this kind of statements. Vox spokesman in Congress, Iván Espinosa de los Monteros, said once that there's no need to discuss gender-based violence while contending infanticides are carried out by more women than men (it's both a false claim and a heinous counter argument). Former Vox spokesman in Andalusia,  Francisco Serrano,  has been always very vocal against feminism (he calls it "gender yihadism") and "gender ideology". Denying the existence of structural violence against women and vilifying feminism is one of the key cultural battles for Vox. I'm sure that's nothing strange for someone who lives in the US -or follows US politics- and looks at the GOP nowadays.

Sadly we have seen colaboration with Vox didn't hurt the PP in Andalusia,  despite the previous PP-Cs government made concessions to Vox in order to get the regional budget passed (they replaced "gender-based violence" by 'family violence"). PP representatives claim they believe in the existence of gender-based violence and will defend womens rights,  but the PP-VOX deal in Valencia reveals that Spanish conservatives are ready to make concessions and buy the far-right frameworks. I wish this could cause alarm in sectors sensitive to violence against women,  but I'm afraid most of the people is sedated by the mainstream media that has normalized Vox

[MRCVzla]

Constitution of the local councils are happening right now, to refresh this table i do on 28M election night:

General scenario at province capitals (plus cities over 100k inhabitants):
PP majority: Madrid, Almería, Badajoz, Cádiz, Córdoba, Granada, Logroño, Melilla, Murcia, Málaga, Oviedo, Salamanca, Santander, Teruel, Badalona, Jerez de la Frontera, Marbella, Torrejón de Ardoz, Algeciras, Roquetas de Mar
Right-wing lead but PP>combined left: Albacete, Alicante, Ciudad Real, Huelva, Huesca, Segovia, Zaragoza, Gijón (Foro), Alcobendas
Right-wing bloc lead: Valencia, Sevilla, Burgos, Castellón, Ceuta, Cáceres, Guadalajara, Ourense, Palma de Mallorca, Toledo, Valladolid, Elche, Cartagena, Móstoles, Alcalá de Henares
PSOE majority: Soria, Vigo, Sabadell, Fuenlabrada, Dos Hermanas, Santa Coloma de Gramenet
Left-wing bloc lead: A Coruña, Jaén, León, Lleida, Lugo, Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Tarragona, Zamora (IU), L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, Getafe, Alcorcón, Parla, Mataró
Nationalist with left-wing support: Bilbao, San Sebastián, Barakaldo (PNV), Pontevedra, Santiago de Compostela (BNG)
Nationalist with center-right support: Santa Cruz de Tenerife (CC)
Nationalist/regionalist bloc lead: Girona (Guanyem)
Likely Localist: Ávila, Terrassa, Telde
Tossup with a Regionalist/localist as kingmaker: Cuenca, Palencia, Leganés
Tossup: Barcelona, Pamplona, Vitoria-Gasteiz, San Cristóbal de La Laguna, Reus

As expected, along the elected/reelected majors in the PP majority area are José Luis Martínez Almeida (Madrid), Francisco de la Torre (Málaga), the returns of Xavier García Albiol (Badalona), José Francisco Ballesta (Murcia) after both lost motions of no-confidence or the gains of Cádiz after 8 years of "Kichi" with Bruno García, as well Granada with Marifrán Carazo.

A note: Despite PP getting initially majority, the instalation of Melilla Autonomous City council was delayed due to a appeal of Coalición por Melilla who claims election repeat (mostly for the mail vote bribe scandal who implies them), the local Electoral Commission (Junta Electoral de Zona) denied their appeal but they introduced one under the JEC

Right-wing lead but PP>combined left: I highlight two who get an agreement with Vox and gains from PSOE, Huelva (Pilar Miranda) and Gijón (Carmen Moriyon from Foro, mayor between 2011-19), without need of Vox is Zaragoza where PP hold as Natalia Chueca will reemplace Jorge Azcón who is very likely the next Regional President.
PP minority: Albacete, Alicante, Huesca, Segovia, Zaragoza, Alcobendas
Coalition with Vox: Ciudad Real, Huelva, Gijón (Foro)

Right-wing bloc lead situation: PP+Vox did agreements in Castilla-La Mancha being the most notable the Toledo one with PP' Carlos Velásquez being elected the new mayor after 16 years of PSOE rulling (the first 8 with the incumbent Regional President Emiliano García Page), in Valladolid, former Regional minister Jesús Julio Carnero outs the controversial Oscar Puente, also agreements or some of the Madrilenian peripheries -the so-called red belt- as in Móstoles, Manuel Bautista reemplaces the corrupt PSOE mayor Noelia Posse. In places with PP minority, the notable gains are in Valencia with Maria José Catalá ousting Compromís' Joan Ribó or Sevilla with José Luis Sanz after 2 terms of PSOE mayors, Juan Jesús Vivas gets reelected for another term in the Autonomous City of Ceuta. And there is the Ourense case, as the controversial Gonzalo Pérez Jácome (DO) will repeat as mayor in exchange of PP leading once again the provincial diputation but not headed anymore by the arch-corrupt Manuel Baltar after 36 years!
PP minority: Valencia, Sevilla, Castellón, Ceuta, Cáceres, Palma de Mallorca, Cartagena
Coalition with Vox: Burgos, Guadalajara, Toledo, Valladolid, Elche, Móstoles, Alcalá de Henares
Localist minority: Ourense

PSOE majority: The sole highlight, another 4 years of Abel Caballero and their Christmas lights extravaganza in Vigo.

Left-wing bloc lead: A Coruña and Lugo are PSOE holds with support of BNG, keeps Getafe or Parla and gains Alcorcón with a left-wing coalition with MM/UP, former Health minister Carolina Darias to hold Las Palmas in coalition with NC and UP, PSC recovers in minority Lleida and Tarragona as holds L'Hospitalet de Llobregat and Mataró by the same way. Zamora will be installed later at the afternoon but IU mayor reelection is safe.
Just one failed prediction: Jaén is PP gain after an agreement with localist Jaén Merece Más (linked to the Empty Spain movement), for first time ever, PSOE doesn't govern in none of the 8 Andalusian province capitals.
A note: The installation of the municipal council of León has been postponed until July 7, after a Vox appeal regarding more than 400 invalid votes due to erroneous ballots (who contained 25 instead of 27 candidates) that could earn them one more seat, something similar had already happened in 2019 but with some ballots from the PSOE being awarded to Vox which was just above the 5% threshold (at the end, Vox failed to pass and PSOE holded the mayorship)

Nationalist with left-wing support: PNV mayors in Bilbao (Juan María Aburto) and San Sebastián (Eneko Goia) will continue in their posts with the support of PSOE (as well Barakaldo). As well with PSOE support, BNG holds Pontevedra and gains Santiago de Compostela (also with support from Compostela Aberta)

Nationalist with center-right support: José Manuel Bermúdez (CC) is reelected mayor of Santa Cruz de Tenerife in coalition with PP, PSOE was the most voted party there.

Nationalist/regionalist bloc lead: Pro-indy pact in Girona as Lluc Saellas from Guanyem/CUP is the new mayor after years of post-convergents mayorships (including Puigdemont itself)

Likely Localist: Por Ávila holds in minority their province capital, Jordi Ballart (a former PSC) remains as mayor of Terrassa with support of Junts and ERC, the localists of Telde (CIUCA) will govern in coalition with PP and CC.

Tossup with a Regionalist/localist as kingmaker:: Cuenca (PSOE holds, also with support from UP), Palencia (PSOE gain in minority after the localists and UP abstained, outgoing mayor was from Cs with PP support), Leganés (PP gain in minority)

Tossup: Oh boy...
-Pamplona: UPN holds, Cristina Ibarrola is the new mayor, PSOE voted for themselves leaving alone EH Bildu.
-Vitoria-Gasteiz: Cordon sanitaire against EH Bildu, PSOE gains with support of PNV and PP, Maider Etxebarria reemplaces PNV' Gorka Urtaran.
-San Cristóbal de La Laguna: No left-wing agreement but PSOE holds in minority, Luis Yeray Gutiérez remains as mayor.
-Reus: PSC gains, Sandra Guaita is the city' first female mayor in a coalition with ERC and Ara Reus (linked to PDeCAT)

As in Barcelona... well it's the only one who remains at the moment of this writing as tossup. Agreement between ERC and Junts to support Xavier Trias as Ernest Margall should be their deputy mayor, Comuns and PP councilors are key if PSC' Jaume Collboni (outgoing Colau' deputy mayor) gets a chance.

Not in the list, but very remarkable:
-Ripoll (Girona): A far-right pro-independence list "Aliança Catalana" with xenophobe background against inmigrants won the election to shock of anybody, and the rest of the parties in the local council (the three main pro-indy and PSC) tried to form a cordon sanitaire against them, they failed as Junts vetoed the CUP as the latter with PSC supported the ERC candidate, the candidate related to the far-right list, Silvia Orriols is the new mayor.
-Morella (Castellón) is Ximo Puig' hometown, was governed for PSOE without interruption over 32 years... until today, the localist party "Independents de Morella" who get 4 seats gained the mayorship with support of PP' 2 seats, PSOE was the most voted with 5 seats. The scandals around Puig' brother damaged local PSPV performance, a great moral loss for the outgoing Regional President in his last days of government.
-Don Benito (Badajoz) is the municipality who voted in referendum their merge with Villanueva de la Serena, converting them in the 3rd most inhabitated town in Extremadura. PSOE was the most voted list (9 seats), but a localist list against the merge ("Siempre Don Benito", 7 seats) reached a agreement with PP (5 seats) to get the mayorship shared 2 years each, a condition of the localist list is hold a new referendum about the merge in 2026.
-La Guardia (Toledo) is an interesting case, PSOE and PP got the same number of seats (4 each) and UP got 3, 2 of UP councilors jumped ship and supported PP instead of PSOE, they already expelled from Podemos and they remain in the local council as non inscrits.

[Mike88]

Thanks for these amazing updates MRCVzla. Good work!

[Velasco]

PSC candidate Jaume Collboni could be the next mayor of Barcelona after the Ada Colau party agreed to vote for him without entering local government. It will depend on the PP, that previously said it could back Collboni in case Colau is out

[kaoras]

Yep, Collboni was elected mayor. Trías f*** up by announcing that it would govern with ERC, which pushed PP towards PSC

 

[Velasco]

Yep, Collboni was elected mayor. Trías f*** up by announcing that it would govern with ERC, which pushed PP towards PSC

It could have been hard to explain that Feijóo gives up to the Spanish ultranationalists to get Valencia one day, while the following day he's giving the Barcelona mayoralty to Catalan separatists. The losers are the uptown Barcelona locals that voted for Trías in May and could vote for Feijóo in July

I think Collboni should try to form a coalition with BCOMU and ERC after elections,  in case Oriol Junqueras is willing to make progressive deals and give stability to the local government

[Mike88]

So far, party control of the main cities and provincial capitals, compared with 2019:

57 PP (+36)
32 PSOE (-28)
  4 PNV (-1)
  2 IU (nc)
  1 CUP (+1)
  1 UPN (nc)
  1 BNG (nc)
  1 JxCat (-1)
  1 CC (-1)
  1 ERC (-2)
  0 C's (-3)
  0 Compromís (-1)
  0 Adelante (-1)
  0 BComú (-1)
  0 Independents (-1)
  5 Other parties (+2)

[Zinneke]

Yep, Collboni was elected mayor. Trías f*** up by announcing that it would govern with ERC, which pushed PP towards PSC

It could have been hard to explain that Feijóo gives up to the Spanish ultranationalists to get Valencia one day, while the following day he's giving the Barcelona mayoralty to Catalan separatists. The losers are the uptown Barcelona locals that voted for Trías in May and could vote for Feijóo in July

I think Collboni should try to form a coalition with BCOMU and ERC after elections,  in case Oriol Junqueras is willing to make progressive deals and give stability to the local government

I think ERC still very much resent BComu because of what happened in 2019 (where the same sort of thing happened but with Maragall as Trias and Colau as Collboni, and Valls as the PP with the "anyone but the independence crew" stance), and also PSC and ERC probably also can't stand each other due to factors like Maragalls defection, PSC being way more pro-development, etc. But really yes the reason you allude to for ERC's ridiculous stance during this process was the fact there is a GE on the horizon and they must shore up the Catalan nationalist vote. That city's politics is just so divided across so many cleavages that it takes Belgo-Dutch compromises to decide the mayor, hence why often the least offensive option is elected.

[MRCVzla]

Pre-campaign update in headlines, Vox denying gender-based violence or the pacts or not with EH Bildu from PSOE are the focus of the last hours.
-Sánchez on a radio interview: "We have validated more decrees with the PP than with Bildu, and nobody says that I govern with the PP", about Catalonia: "The desire for revenge should not be given free rein"
-Abascal offers Feijóo a pact against "violence against women" but continues to deny sexist violence, says "Gender is an ideological concept that we do not share"
-Feijóo: "I will review one by one the laws in which Bildu vote was decisive", among the possible laws to repeal, the "Trans act" and the Democractic Memory law, promises recover sedition and increases penalties for corruption in his first 100 days. Also Feijóo on gender-based violence: "Macho violence is obvious and it should not attract attention that it is not in the texts"

Autonomic/Regional pacts: PP offered to Vox the Speaker post in Extremadura parliament in order to support her Regional president candidate without join the govt., Vox rejects, PP proposes the same deal in Balears as a preliminary agreement meanwhile the talks to form the Regional government continues.

Local governments formation "hangover": The recently elected EH Bildu mayor from Bermeo resigned hours later after taking office after tested positive in DUI. In a "bad loser" behavior after lose the Barcelona mayorship, Xavier Trias say is ready to retire but not inmediatly.

Deadline to register list for the GE has passed with no major incidents (preliminary list will be published at the BOE on Wednesday), Podemos accepted with resignation the Montero veto and for now has 8 safe seats within Sumar, Colau along University minister Subirats and Asens closes the Sumar/Comuns lists in Barcelona. Former Cs member Carina Mejías joins Vox as 2nd in Barcelona list and repeats the Valencian strategy in Balears puting his regional candidate (Jorge Campos) as list holder for Congress in that region (La Razon' poll garantees Vox and Més/Sumar seats, PSOE fights for a 3rd seat over a 4th for PP, Balears has 8 seats to the Congress). ERC' Ernest Maragall will be a candidate for the Senate.

Summary of the weekend' opinion polls by the Wiki page:

[Mike88]

Snap elections in Extremadura could be on the horizon:

https://twitter.com/voz_populi/status/1671135259696537603

Genoa gives the green light to new elections in Extremadura: "We do not submit to a minority"

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

The bar should not be this low, but relieved that Guardiola in EX did not cave as quickly as other PP politicians have done across the country. Not like she deserves any credit, since this is bare minimum stuff.

That being said, if a new election happens and gives the same result, I won't be surprised when she does finally give in to boks.

[Former President tack50]

For what is worth, today the final lists for the election were published provisionally. Here is the official document if anyone wants to look at it:

https://boe.es/boe/dias/2023/06/21/pdfs/BOE-A-2023-14733.pdf

Here are the lists running in my home province of Las Palmas (and where I'll vote by mail), split into major and minor parties:

PARTIDO POPULAR (PP)
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA OBRERO ESPAÑOL (PSOE)
COALICIÓN CANARIA (CCa)
NUEVA CANARIAS - BLOQUE CANARISTA (NC-bc)
VOX (VOX)
SUMAR CANARIAS (SUMAR)

FRENTE OBRERO (FO)
POR UN MUNDO MÁS JUSTO (PUM+J)
RECORTES CERO (RECORTES CERO)
PARTIDO ANIMALISTA CON EL MEDIO AMBIENTE (PACMA)
AHORA CANARIAS-PARTIDO COMUNISTA DEL PUEBLO CANARIO (AHORA CANARIAS-PCPC)

The major lists need no introduction. Surprisingly few minor parties though so here is an introduction to each of them:

-Frente Obrero: An interesting party. They were growing on social media back in the day. Basically they are a far left communist party that is also socially conservative, anti-trans and what not. I've seen them get called "Rojipardos" sometimes (red-brown). By far the most interesting third party on the list in terms of seeing how they perform

Por un Mundo Más Justo: A long-running single issue pro-immigrants, pro-asylum and pro-open borders party. Not much more than that

Recortes Cero: The party that started as a literal Maoist sect that endorsed Ciudadanos and UPyD is still going strong I see, though these days I guess they are better known for being a far left party that is also pro-centralization or at least hardline anti-Catalan independence (they even got 5 minutes of glory when a former IU leader endorsed them in 2017). Either way, no idea what they stand now. Their main proposal used to be "Minimum wage of 1000€, maximum wage of 10000€". Considering the current minimum wage is already well above 1000€, uh...

PACMA: By far the largest and most serious of the minor parties, they are basically a single issue pro-animal rights and pro-environment party. They seem to have changed their logo lately and rebranded to "Animalist Party with the environment" instead of "Animalist Party against Animal Mistreatment".

Ahora Canarias-PCPC: A coalition between the classic hardline tankie party (PCPE) and Ahora Canarias, the Canarian secessionists. At least PCPE used to be the kind of party that had the city full of papers, then got only 0.2% of the vote. I guess they'll manage to add up both their fixed bases and get 0.4% this time?

Worth noting PCPE split in like 2018 and while in the Canaries the "original" party won (PCPE, led by Carmelo Suarez, who is from the islands, so that probably helped) it seems in Spain at large the splitter party (PCTE) is larger. So maybe they are doing poorly and that is why they need to merge with the Canarian secessionists

[Velasco]

Feijóo saýs the reason PP gave up to Vox in Valencia and the far-right is rejected in Extremadura is vote percentage; 12% in Valencia and 8% in Extremadura. A mere 4% of the vote draws the line of what's acceptable, says the genius. Never forget the PP candidate in Extremadura stated that she won't admit a party that denies gender-based violence and drops feminist and throws LGBT flags away. Will Maria Guardiola dare to say that next month? The newly elected speaker of the Balearic parliament is a Vox macho man who affirms that women feel rage because they envy mens penises. In case polls are accurate, Feijóo is about to incorporate these people in the next Spanish government.

As for the electoral lists in Las Palmas,  two things:

1) las Palmas is one of the provinces alloted to Podemos in the negotiations between the Yolanda Díaz peoplw and what's left of the purple party. Not bad for me if the candidate was Victoria Rosell (she is the government's delegate against gender violence), but she has been replaced by the loser Noemí Santana. Regardless of wether Rosell was vetoed by the Yolanda Diaz people or Santana is the person chosen by Podemos, that's bad.Therefore,  I'll vote for the PSOE and Mr. Handsome

2) Ahora Canarias-PCPC. I know these people.  Just wow

[PSOL]

PCTE did pretty well in the local elections, gaining everywhere except Madrid and another region.

[MRCVzla]

To add to what was said by tack50, the 8 parties mentioned there are present in almost all the provinces: Frente Obrero is not present in Huelva and Melilla, PACMA is not present in Ceuta either (in 2019 they did not present a list in both Ceuta and Melilla) and PUM+J did not present a candidacy in 3 Catalan provinces (except Tarragona) and Castellón, except if in the final lists they manage to admit some lists who had bureaucratic problems/presented on the brink of the deadline. The PCPE split, the PCTE (Communist Party of Workers of Spain) is fielding candidacies in 36 provinces (who represents 241 seats).

Other parties standing in more than 10 provinces are the francoist-nostalgics of the FE de las JONS standing in 11 provinces (107 seats, like Madrid, Sevilla, Valencia, Zaragoza and some Castilla provinces), the "Escaños en Blanco" party who advocates for the "none of the above" voters and if they got elected will not take full possesion of their possible seats is standing in 16 provinces (105 seats, Barcelona being the most populated), and the Macarena Olona project of "Caminando Juntos" trying to atract a moderate centrist/anti-establishment voter will be present in 12 provinces, all the constituencies with more than 9 seats plus 3 from Castilla y León and Granada, Olona' "home" province who she will be the list holder, so no much possibility to see her again at the Carrera de San Jerónimo and more to see her project as a protest/splitter vote mostly to the right, the only pollster where this party appears (SocioMétrica/El Español) is polling them at 0.3-0.4%.

The España Vaciada movement is finally standing in 10 provinces instead of the 12 who initially announced. The Existe coalition in all 3 Aragón provinces who includes Teruel Existe, Soria Ya plus Asturias, León, Palencia, Salamanca, Valladolid and Burgos (in coalition with the regionalists of PCAS-TC), Toledo and La Rioja fell off.

[MRCVzla]

One month exactly to the polls. PP and Vox had a pre-agreement in Aragón, Vox got today the Speaker post of the regional parliament, like in Baleares, the Vox hack who got the post has some controversies like being a COVID and Climate change negationist, the pre-agreement is not necessary a final one so can go either way like Valencia or Extremadura. Feijóo during Ayuso' inauguration (she was reconfirmed yesterday as Madrid Regional Presidency): "A divergence with Vox separates us, for the moment, from an agreement in Extremadura", they are some reports of internal disconfort in PP for how the pacts with Vox are dealed.

Minor one from Sumar or better said at the Comuns side, they ask to include in the election program, some "referendum" for Catalonia but not necessary on "self-determination" as more like "some popular validation to the Dialogue board' agreements".

[Velasco]

Pedro Sánchez and the great Zapatero say this campaign is atypical. It's quite strange that, unlike in typical campaigns, the focus is not on economy or employment. Rather, the overwhelmingly conservative media and the right are imposing their own frameworks: revoke sanchismo, Sánchez vs Spain, ETA, Bildu.. The Trump era has arrived to Spain. I'm somewhat disgusted and depressed by the environment. Even though I never watch TV and I am far away from the paranoia of the Pablo Iglesias supporters, you can trust me if I tell you Ana Rosa, Ferreras, Pablo Motos, Risto Mejide and other talk show hosts are despicable scum. They have normalized fascism

Anyway. According to some French pollster, the Spanish society would be characterized by 16 political tribes. You can read their description through the link below (Spanish)

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20230625/9063485/16-tribus-politicas-espanolas.html

Take the test to discover what's your tribe!

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20230625/9063356/cual-tribu-politica.html

In case you want to ask me, out of curiosity,  I'm unsurprisingly "multiculturalist" (the perfect scapegoat)

[Logical]

There appears to be some mishap with the Vox party list in Santa Cruz de Tenerife province.

[S019]

I got the "Republicans," accordingly to the blurb mostly due to my strongly secular and anti-monarchy views.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Pedro Sánchez and the great Zapatero say this campaign is atypical. It's quite strange that, unlike in typical campaigns, the focus is not on economy or employment. Rather, the overwhelmingly conservative media and the right are imposing their own frameworks: revoke sanchismo, Sánchez vs Spain, ETA, Bildu.. The Trump era has arrived to Spain. I'm somewhat disgusted and depressed by the environment. Even though I never watch TV and I am far away from the paranoia of the Pablo Iglesias supporters, you can trust me if I tell you Ana Rosa, Ferreras, Pablo Motos, Risto Mejide and other talk show hosts are despicable scum. They have normalized fascism

Anyway. According to some French pollster, the Spanish society would be characterized by 16 political tribes. You can read their description through the link below (Spanish)

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20230625/9063485/16-tribus-politicas-espanolas.html

Take the test to discover what's your tribe!

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20230625/9063356/cual-tribu-politica.html

In case you want to ask me, out of curiosity,  I'm unsurprisingly "multiculturalist" (the perfect scapegoat)

It's not a real election until there are online quizzes to tell you how to vote

Edit: I got "Multiculturalistas"

[Lumine]

I got "Republicanos" instead of the more expected "Liberales". Not being particularly fond of the Church and the Monarchy seems to put me more to the left - in Spanish political terms - than I thought.

(Then again, were I Spanish, I'd probably hold a different opinion on topics like Catalonia and the Crown)