Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Velasco]

Elections in Catalonia mark the end of the electoral cycle and the Spanish elections thread was getting too long. So I locked the old thread and start a new one in order to continue discussing recent election results, polls or political developments. Here are some links that might be of interest:

Catalan elections precinct map from eldiario.es

https://www.eldiario.es/catalunya/resultados-elecciones-catalanas-calle-calle-consulta-gano-manzana_1_7220231.html

Interactive graphs explaining the demographics of the February 14 vote, by bloc (pro-independence vs rest of parties) and party

https://www.eldiario.es/catalunya/demografia-14f-vota-grupo-social-elecciones-catalanas_1_7218718.html#click=https://t.co/PVSniqliOP

Election analysis with turnout and party interactive maps from ctxt (context and action)

https://ctxt.es/es/20210201/Politica/35074/Mario-Rios-Fernandez-Julian-Claramunt-analisis-votos-elecciones-Catalunya.htm

[Velasco]

Valls is calling for a Catalan Mario Draghi two sentences after dismissing the entire Catalan nationalist movement as unable to govern, and saying ERC cannot be left-wing because it is seperatist. He is a total cuck.

Someone calling for a "Catalan Mario Draghi" either doesn't understand Catalan politics or doesn't understand Italian politics. Or both.

Manuel Valls says that he doesn't know who could be the "Catalan Mario Draghi" and I fail to see a candidate. I would concede that Catalan nationalists have not proven to be very competent in government, but that's my personal opinion and I wouldn't go as far Mr. Valls. I don't think they are unable to govern, but certainly they have been focused on other things. As for the claim that being nationalist and left-wing are incompatible, I would argue that even a left-wing Spanish nationalism is possible in spite of the Franco's legacy.

For the record, there exist advocates of a concentration government in Madrid (I get it'd be a PSOE-PP-Cs coalition, excluding UP and Vox), but I would argue the outcome of the Catalan elections does not favor that alternative. Also, the people supporting that idea have a strong desire to get rid of Pedro Sánchez (aka Mr Resilience). While there is not an apparent alternative to the current government, coalition partners PSOE and UP and embarked in a suicidal game (meanwhile Vox is on the rise)

https://english.elpais.com/politics/2021-02-22/spains-governing-coalition-partners-it-cant-go-on-like-this.html

After just one year of life, Spain’s governing coalition is showing clear signs of fatigue. The Socialist Party (PSOE) is accusing its junior partner Unidas Podemos of behaving simultaneously like the government and the opposition. And the leftist group is charging the Socialists with failing to honor signed agreements on issues like capping the price of rent.

While there is no shared vision, ministers and political leaders from both groups agree on one thing: “It can’t go on like this.”

Last week was especially tough. It began with a clash over equal rights policy involving the PSOE unilaterally registering initiatives for congressional debate on a subject that falls under the purview of the Equality Ministry, run by Unidas Podemos. Meanwhile, the PSOE is upset that its partner reached out to other parties in a bid to prevent its own “Ley Zerolo” equality project from even being admitted for discussion in the Congress of Deputies.

The week ended with a heated argument over statements made by some Unidas Podemos leaders expressing support for the rapper Pablo Hasél, who was recently jailed for social media posts praising terrorism. His arrest triggered several nights of protests and street violence in Catalonia and elsewhere.

But the deeper trouble lies above all in housing, pension reform and other decisions of an economic nature that require decisions on how to spend the €72 billion from the European recovery fund. This includes deciding whether the bulk of the funds should go towards large projects that would benefit big Spanish multinationals, or towards sectors with smaller companies.

Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez of the PSOE and his deputy Pablo Iglesias, the leader of Unidas Podemos, are due to meet in the coming days to try to reduce the tension, which is affecting all ongoing negotiations and interfering with the government’s day-to-day operations, as several ministers have admitted.  

In other news, today is the  anniversary of the 1981 failing coup attempt. Remember that king Juan Carlos has ¡fled' (or has been 'banished' because of his sins) and currently lives in the United Arab Emirates  

https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2021-02-23/spains-king-felipe-vi-pays-tribute-to-juan-carlos-i-for-role-in-foiling-1981-coup-attempt.html

 Speaking at a ceremony to commemorate the 40th anniversary of an attempted coup d’état in Spain, King Felipe VI paid tribute to the “resolve and authority” of his father, emeritus king Juan Carlos I during the night of February 23, 1981. The then-monarch’s actions, Felipe said, were “decisive for the defense and triumph of democracy.”

Today marked the first time that the Spanish king has expressly made reference to Juan Carlos since the latter left Spain last August in the midst of a growing scandal over his private finances. The speech was given by King Felipe at a solemn event in the Congress of Deputies, the lower house of parliament and the location where the coup attempt played out four decades ago.

I think the most obvious candidate to be the  "Spanish Mario Draghi" would be our Economy minister Nadia Calviño, who is a well-respected technocrat with a vast experience in EU institutions

(Maybe Estrella is right about Manuel Valls' intentions, lol)

[Velasco]

Profile of the abstentionists in the last Catalan elections with clickable maps

https://stories.lavanguardia.com/politica/20210225/36039/el-perfil-del-abstencionista-elecciones-catalanas

Nearly 2.5 million of Catalans didn't show up in the February 14 elections. The pandemic and the sovereigntist process weariness are reported as major factors. 41% of the 947 Catalan municipalities had record abstention and 79% recorded the highest levels in the last 15 years. Abstention has increased everywhere, but there are remarkable diferences between geographical areas.

Cross-checking of precinct results with socodemographic data permits a first approximation to the abstentionist's profile, pending post-election surveys.

The case of el Montmell, a municipality located in Tarragona province (Baix Penedès), is aradigmatic. Turnout in el Montmell decreased by 40%, from 72.59% in 2017 to 32.54% in 2021 (the lowest in all Catalonia)

Election results in el Montmell. Notice the sharp Cs decline

2021                           2017

PSC 104 (25.55%)        Cs 309 (38.87%)
ERC 82 (20.15%)          ERC 147 (19.49%)
Vox 67 (16.46%)          PSC 128 (16.1%)
JxCAT 60 (14.74%)       JxCAT 83 (10.44%)
ECP 30 (7.37%)            ECP 47 (5.91%)
CUP 24 (5.9%)              PP 44 (5.53%)
Cs 20 (4.91%)              CUP 27 (3.4%)
PP 9 (2.21%)

Demographic indicators from this municipality tell that per capita income is below average (22,000 Euros), 30% of the workforce is employed in construction and unemployment exceeds 40%

On the opposite extreme we have the municipality of Sant Pere Sallavinera, a tiny village (155 inhabitants) located in Barcelona province (l'Anoia). Turnout decreased only by 1%, from 85.48% in 2017 to 84.55% in 2021

2021                           2017

JxCAT 37 (36.63%)        JxCAT 60 (56.6%)
ERC 27 (26.73%)           ERC 27 (25.47%)
PDeCAT 16 (15.84%)          
CUP 10 (9,9%)               CUP 4 (3.77%)
PSC 3 (2.97%)               PSC 4 (3.77%)
PP 2 (1.9%)                   PP 4 (3.77%)
ECP 2 (1.98%)              ECP 3 (2.83%)
Cs 1 (0.99%)                 Cs 2 (1.89%)
Vox 1 (0.99%)

Per capita income: 41,000 euros

These extreme cases are not anecdotal, rather they reflect a general pattern. As a general rule abstention peaked in low income precincts, which tend to support parties opposed to Catalan independence. Turnout also decreased in areas with higher income and those with a stronger pro-independence vote, albeit to a lesser degree. Extreme cases in the Barcelona Metropolitan Region can be found in precincts of Badalona )el Pomar neighbourhood) and Sant Cugat (Eixample). Abstention in el Pomar (per capita income: 23,000) peaked to nearly 70% in 2021, while in 2017 it was between 15% and 22% (dependng on precinct). In Sant Cugat Eixample (per capita income: 80,000) abstention reached 24% in 2021, which is 14% higher than previous election.

[Velasco]

Leading party by municipality in the 2021 Catalan elections

[Velasco]

Turnout including voters abroad (CERA) falls to 51.3% (79.1% in 2017)

https://resultats.parlament2021.cat/resultados/0/catalunya

Gains and losses in raw votes

PSC +48,107
ERC -330.280
JxCAT+PDeCAT -300,645 (JUNTSxCAT in 2017)
VOX +218,121 (new)
CUP -5,322
ECP -131,015
Cs -951,126
PP -76,217

Pro-independence parties: 51.3%
Rest of parties: 47.9%
Blank votes: 0.8%

[Velasco]

Nació Digutal: "The ANC (Catalan National Assrmbly, grassroots pro-independence organization) calls for a concentration government that doesn't 'waste' the 52% of the votes (actually 51 %)"

Lluis Orriols (Pol Sci professor): "The 'concentration' government is actually the minimum winning coalition"

Orriols makes an pbvious remark. The question is that the ANC regarding the pro-independence coalition a concentration government reflects a mentality. For these people there exist two different nations in Catalonia,  depending on which parties you vote and which is your first language (Catalan or Spanish). I heard to Orriols recently that the divide between Catalan and Spanish speakers (most Catalans are bilingual, so it's more accurate to talk about primary languages) resembles that of Belgium in today's Catalonia


https://twitter.com/LluisOrriols/status/1366118813473927168?s=19

[Velasco]

Comarcas ('counties') and municipalities won by party

JxCAT: 24 comarcas and 561 municipalities
ERC: 10 comarcas and 264 municipalities
PSC: 8 comarcas and 106 municipalities
PDeCAT: 7 municipalities
CUP: 6 municipalities
VOX: 2 municipalities
PP: 1 municipality

Population density by municipality (2009)




-There are 11 municipaities above 100,000 inhabitants, including Barcelona (this municipality exceeds 1 million). The PSC won pluralities in 8, ERC in 2 and JxCAT in 1. In 2017 Cs came first in 10 and JxCAT in 1

The PSC won pluralities in Barcelona, l'Hospitalet, Terrassa, Badalona, Sabadell, Tarragona, Mataro and Santa Coloma de Gramenet

ERC  came first in Lleida and Reus.

Junts came first in Girona

-There are 12 municipalities with populations between 50 001 and 100,000. All of them are located in the Barcelona Metropolitan Region except Manresa, which is in Barcelona province but located inland. The PSC came first in 10 and JxCAT in 2 (Sant Cugat and Manresa)

Additionally there are 41 municioalities with populations between 20,001 and 50,000. All municipalities exceeding 20,000 inhabitatnts are regarded "urban" in Spain, This group includes metropolitan and coastal municipalities (mostly tourist resorts, some industrial towns), as well as certain inland regional centers l. ERC and JxCAT won more pluralities in this group of municipalities, but I feel lazy to tally the exact amount

-The PDeCAT came first in 7 municipalities, 6 in Lleida province and 1 in Tareagona. The largest of these municipalities is Aitona; its population amounts some 2,530 and it's located not far from the town of Lleida

-The CUP came first in 6 municipalities, even smaller in population size, scattered through the four provinces

-Vox came first in Vilamalla (Girona province, near Figueres) and la Pobla de Mafumet (near Tarragona). The populations are 1150 and 3430 respectively

-The PP came first in the municipality of Gimenells i el Pla de la Font, located in Lleida province next to the Aragonese border. It has a population of 1170 and a PP mayor which was formerly a PSC one

[Velasco]

PSOE and Más Madrid submit motions of no confidence,  in order to prevent that Ayuso calls a snap election. Both claim the decree for a snap election is not in force until it's released by the Official Gazette

https://twitter.com/Guerraeterna/status/1369624347644674050?s=19

[Velasco]

Public appearance of Ayuso, announcing her resignation and the snap elections. Apparently the regional Chief of Staff Miguel Ángel Rodríguez was faster than PSOE and MM. Ayuso will campaign on the "Madrid way of life". She will go in full populist mode, low taxes and cultural battles. The Cs regional leader and former deputy premier Ignacio Aguado is very angry.  Cs had no plans to ally with the PSOE in Madrid,  apparently. But Ayuso has found a pretext and her chance to throw her hat in the contest for the leadership of the Spanish Right. In case she succeeds, I assume it's going to be PP+Vox

Election date is still unknown

Cs leadership deems stable the coalitions with the PP in Andalusia and Castilla y León

The Mayor of Madrid says the coalition with Cs will continue. Unlike Ayuso  Almeida can't dissolve the City Council. The relationship between PP and Cs in the Madrid local government is much better than the relationship between the two parties in the regional government

[Velasco]

The Bureau* of the Madrid Regional Assembly, chaired by a Cs member, admits the no confidence motions submitted by PSOE and Más Madrid. On paper, according to PSOE sources, this move paralyzes the snap elections, in the assumption the decree to call elections is not in force until it's released tomorrow by the Official Gazette. Chaos

*PSOE, PP, Cs and Vox have presence in the Bureau. MM was deprived of tepresentation by a trick of the rightwing parties.  PSOE and Cs voted in favour of both motions; Vox voted against the PSOE motion and backed the admission of one submitted by MM

In case elections take place, the date would be Tuesday May 4, 2021

[Velasco]

Nothing good can come out of this.

Ayuso's downfall.

Eh, not really, she should be the favourite to win the election for all intents and purposes. I can think of scenarios where Ayuso loses but there aren't that mamy of them.

Once the Bureau of the Regional Assembly admitted the motions of no confidence, it's not clear the elections are going to take place. The left and Cs claim the decree is not in force until it's released by the Official Gazette, while the PP argues it's in force since Ayuso signed it this morning. Possibly the Supreme Court will have to rule on this dispute,

In case there is a snap election, Ayuso seems to be the favourite. In case there's a no confidence motion and some consensus between PSOE, Cs and MM, Ayuso will be ousted. In that case, she and her supporters will go in full Trumpist mode. The rightwing outlets are already claiming there's a coup attempt

[Velasco]

The butterfly effect

https://english.elpais.com/politics/2021-03-10/madrid-region-faces-early-election-after-infighting-triggers-political-earthquake-in-spain.html

Spain’s butterfly effect began in the southeastern region of Murcia. The precarious balance between the country’s two main political blocs has been broken by what started out as a local move that quickly snowballed into an event with national repercussions.

In just a few hours on Wednesday, a no-confidence motion filed in Murcia against the conservative Popular Party (PP) by the Socialist Party (PSOE) and the liberal Ciudadanos (Citizens) led to the fall of the regional government of Madrid, and threatened to destabilize other regions such as Andalusia and Castilla y León.

As a result of the initiative to push the PP out of power in Murcia, the Madrid regional premier Isabel Díaz Ayuso, also of the PP, said she was dissolving her own legislature and calling an early election on May 4. Díaz Ayuso’s move, announced at midday on Wednesday, aimed to prevent a no-confidence vote against her own executive in Madrid (...)

Reacting to her announcement, the PSOE and the leftist Más Madrid registered two no-confidence motions against Díaz Ayuso in an effort to stop the snap election from taking place. At around 4.30pm, it emerged that the Madrid regional assembly’s governing board had accepted the motions. These were registered on the legal basis that the election announcement is not official until it is published in the regional gazette on Thursday. Once this happens, it cannot be reversed and any subsequent motions would fail to stop the vote.

If Madrileños do get called to a vote on May 4, the election is likely to change the political landscape, especially on the right end of the spectrum, where the far-right Vox has been making significant gains, most recently at the Catalan election in February. Ciudadanos, which stands to gain its first regional premiership in Spain if the Murcia motion prospers, now faces the unexpected prospect of losing its hold on the powerful Madrid region. 

[Velasco]

Maybe the problem is the existence of a legal vacuum concerning the autonomous communities ruled by the "general regime". Let's say there exist two kinds of autonomous communities, the "historical nationalities " (Catalonia, Basque Country, Galicia and Andalusia) and those ruled by the "general regime" (rest of regions). In other words, those regions that back in the day followed the "fast track" to autonomy (article 151 of the constitution) and the ones following the "slow track" (article 143). Some of the latter have reformed their statutes of autonomy (case of Valencia, which called a snap election in April 2019 in coincidence with general elections), but it seems Madrid is lacking a clear procedure to call snap elections. In case Ayuso wins the legal dispute, Madrid will have to call elections again in 2023 alongside the other regions that haven't amended their statutes

7

 https://www.europapress.es/madrid/noticia-juristas-creen-prima-voluntad-disolucion-mociones-tener-efectos-dicta-decreto-20210310161030.html  

"Jurists believe dissolution prevails over no confidence motion, as it has effects since the decree is issued"

 Just heard to other jurist with the same argument and it makes sense, since otherwise the regional premier couldn't call elections without the consent of the opposition. The problem is that the legislation says literally the decree comes into effect when it's published in the Official Bulletin. That's why the High Court or the Constitutional Court will rule in one way or another.  They could rule in favour of Ayuso (or not)

[Velasco]

It isn't really a legal vacuum that concerns the "general regime" communities; but rather a legal vacuum concerning the exact specifics of how a snap election gets called.

Madrid's legislation (and I think that of all regions?) specifies that when a snap election gets called, parliament gets dissolved when the dissolution order is published (which takes roughly 24 hours in most cases). However, the legislation also establishes that no snap elections may occur while a no confidence vote is pending. Therefore, there is the legal vacuum of what happens if someone puts in place a no confidence vote during that brief 24 hour period in order to avoid the snap election.

To be honest on this particular debate I lean towards the arguments put in place by Ayuso and PP. I think that quickly tabling a no confidence vote goes against at least the spirit of the norm; and is certainly a dirty play by PSOE/MM. Madrid's premier wanted elections and so elections can and should happen. There is also your argument that if this was the case, theoretically snap elections would require the consent of the opposition.

I do agree that this will 100% end up in court which will have to decide what happens now.

Possibly you are right, there is a vacuum concerning that period of 24 hours until the decree is published. According to something I heard to Gabilondo, it's a defect in a specific legislation of Madrid passed in the 1990s. Even if Ayuso has a case, and I'm not going to contradict you, neither PSOE nor MM are playing dirtier than Ayuso. Let's say the truth: Ayuso has been toying with the idea of calling a snap election for months. Casado stopped her once during the past year. The no confidence motions in Murcia give her a pretext that otherwise would have been hard to find in this context ruled by the pandemic. Ayuso calls preventive elections, but it's highly unlikely Cs in Madrid had the desire to break the coalition, despite the strained relationship between Ayuso and Aguado. If that was the case, the movements of Cs would have been coordinated in Madrid and Murcia, as well as with the PSOE snd MM. There is a huge miscalculation of Cs and PSOE that benefits the Madrid premier. The truth is that Cs always refused to hear the siren calls from the left in Madrid and will get its reward. Ayuso is seeking to boost her career and destroy Cs.The outcome, in case they have the numbers, will be either Ayuso propped up by Vox or Ayuso in coalition with Vox. She has chances of getting that and challenge the embattled leadership of Pablo Casado. It will be a radical and definitive turn of politics. If I was in the PSOE or in MM, I would try my best to prevent this snap election takes place. This will be set by the courts again. It's a pretty bad sign

[Velasco]

[
 Every premier in Spain has the right to call snap elections (with limitations), including crazy insane Ayuso

I think there's an argument to be made here. As I said before, in case Madrid holds elections in May 2021, it will have to go again to the polls in May 2023 regardless. That's crazy and a waste of time and money. Either the legislation gives the premier freedom to call whenever she pleases (providing the maximum term duration is 4 years), or the Madrid region adopts fixed terms. As long as there is not a well defined model so there exists a vacuum, I find both sides are equality entitled to be opportunistic.  Said this, I think nothing good is going to come from this

[Velasco]

The headlines of some Spanish papers are terrific.

El Mundo: "Ayuso calls elections before the manoeuvres of Sánchez and Arrimadas"

La Vanguardia: "Arrimadas breaks with the PP and triggers an earthquake in Madrid and other regions"

El País: "Arrimadas breaks the board"

ABC: "Arrimadas surrenders to the PSOE and Ayuso defies them to elections"

This is ABC cover is one of the least refined examples of trench journalism. Do you remember four years ago Inés Arrimadas was the brave heroine who defied the Catalan separatists? Now she has become a vile traitor that will be avenged by that new Joan of Arc called Isabel Díaz Ayuso. Incredible



https://www.europapress.es/nacional/noticia-portadas-periodicos-jueves-11-marzo-2021-20210311010616.html

[Velasco]

I need to meet more Spanish gals.

Ayy lmao

I'll grant you that Isabel Ayuso looks very beautiful but damn, way to make your entrance in a thread.

To give you an idea, Ayuso is akin to Sarah Palin and her slogan "socialism or freedom" is mimicked from Trump

The likeliest scenario is elections and the PSOE lacks a clear candidate. Ángel Gabilondo, who is a nice and civil professor of philosophy, has proven too soft against Ayuso. Defence minister Margarita Robles has denied rumours mounting at her. Más Madrid candidate will be likely the anesthetist Mónica García,  who has been the actual leader of the opposition and the main antagonist of Ayuso during the pandemic

Socialists submitted a no confidence motion in Castilla y León,  but the Cs deputy premier Francisco Igea denied support from his party.  Likewise PP and Cs confirm the stability of the coalition in Andalusia

[Velasco]

Interesting chronicle in El País

"Casado to Ayuso: 'if Cs dares in Murcia,  we press the nuclear button""

PSOE and Cs were engaged in secret negotiations for weeks, in order to arrange s motion of no confidence in the region of Murcia. Envoys of Pedro Sánchez had a hard time trying to vonvince Cs, as well as the PSOE chapter in Murcia. The former were doubtful un spite their strained relationship with the PP and some scsndals around the vaccination of high PP officials in Murcia; the latter were reluctant to cede the regional presidency to Cs.  "At last we pointed them out this was a bomb full of shrapnel with repercussions in all the electoral spectrum of the Spanish right ", say the envoys regarding their talks with the PSOE regional chapter. The secret talks between PSOE and Cs were interrupted by the Catalan elections, but they were resumed later and boosted by some concessions from the PP to Vox on education (the controversial "parental pin" allowing parents conscientious objection to with regards sex education or talks about LGTB affairs at schools)

The intent of the PSOE manouevre in Murcia was to dismantle the new PP attempt to unite the Spanish right behind its banner,. Socialist sources ad that "we understand the frustraron and the depression of Pablo Casado, because this bomb has exploded in his face provoking the loss of power (...) attained through local deals with Cs that masked the PP failure in elections"

Casado was always contrary to snap elections in Murcia and Madrid. He refrained from attacking Cs, because his dream is the recompisition of all the space right of the centre under the PP leadership. But the deal between PSOE and Cs caught him unaware, as well as the premier Fernando López Miras and the PP's secretary general Teodoro Garcia Egea, who happens to be from Murcia. Some Cs councilior who is friend of Lopez Miras warned the regional premier about the ongoing negotiation on Tuesday night. López Miras was somewhat surprised, because despite the increasing tensions within the regional government, he couldn't believe Cs was daring to make such a move. Still, López Miras told Casado that he refuses to call a snap election arguing that would be inconsistent with his previous stance on the matter.

But with Ayuso it's different, as she has been pushing for a year to call snap elections, in order to capitalize her confrontation with the central government (despite her disastrous handling of the pandemic, confrontation and aggressive communication are rewarding dividends to Ayuso in the polls). Casado finally gives free hands to Ayuso and they press the nuclear button. On the following morning, Ayuso attends a cabinet meeting and says nothing for more than an hour. Then she says her Cs counterparts "I want to tell you a thing: I call early elections". The Cs cabinet members cried in protest and promised they had nothing to do with the socialists,  to no avail

https://elpais.com/espana/2021-03-10/si-cs-se-atreve-en-murcia-apretamos-el-boton-nuclear.html
 

[Velasco]

Just in case anyone missed it, in Murcia C’s is getting its first regional presidency (if you don’t count Melilla, where they govern with just 1 seat, à la Thuringian FDP). The PSOE agreed to support their leader in the region in exchange for C’s supporting a socialist mayor in Murcia’s capital.

Last time there has been a non-PP, non-PSOE regional president from a national party was in 1987, in the Canary Islands. Former PM Suarez’s CDS (Democratic and Social Center) was at the helm.

Murcia, 2019 general election
PP+Vox = 55%
Psoe + Up = 35%
Cs = 7,5 %




https://resultados.elpais.com/elecciones/2019/generales/congreso/15/

Murcian regional election, 2019

PSOE 32.5% 17 seats
PP 32.4% 16 seats
Cs 12.0% 6 seats
Vox 9.5% 4 seats
Podemos 5.6% 2 seats

The next regional election is in 2023

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Murcian_regional_election

[Velasco]

Laura Borràs, the JxCAT candidate in the elections held on February 14, has been elected Speaker of the Catalan Parliament. Mistrust between the main pro-independence parties persists, but it's apparent that pragmatism will prevail as all signals point to a repetition of the coalition formula. ERC began seeking the support of ECP and the CUP (the "broad pathway"), but the former reject deals with JxCAT and the importance of the CUP in negotiations has been diminished. Pro-independence parties have agreed with PSC and ECP to block the access of Vox to the governing bodies of the parliament. Initially the CUP was sighting the post of Speaker, but it will have to conform to have representation in the Board of the Catalan Parliament. The election of Borràs implies the support of JxCAT to the investiture of the ERC candidate Pere Aragonès. The CUP grassroot assemblies are contraries to join the government, rather they prefer to be influential from the outside. ERC seeks the ECP support to self-determination and amnesty for the jailed politicians.

Pablo Casado sees the opportunity to decimate Vox and Cs, reports La Vanguardia. PP national leadership believes calling snap elections in Madrid is a risky decision, but also a golden opportunity to strengthen the  grip on its main stronghold, as well as a shortcut towards the reunification of the Spanish Right. Isabel Díaz Ayuso is very popular among the Vox base and PP folks believe she's the only one able to catch Vox and Cs voters together. However, others think that Ayuso is pursuing her own agenda and that her move ties the fate of the PP to Vox.

Meanwhile the PSOE is in search of a candidate and Toni Cantó wants to lead the rebellion against Cs leader Inés Arrimadas from Valencia. It's not a secret that Cs is in serious peril and  elDiario.es entitles that Pablo Casado is launching the final hostile bid against the last orange remainders

[Velasco]

I wouldn't call Simple Lógica a quality pollster, tbh. As for the Metroscopia poll, it might be an outlier. But sadly I think a Sarah Palin, sorry, an Ayuso landslide is feasible. Low turnout in Madrid would affect low income áreas to a greater extent, as it happened in Catalonia. That's not good news for the left in general

The last movements in Murcia confirm the hostile bid of the PP and point to the final collapse of Cs. The mention to the "Tamayazo" is not out of place; the PP in Murcia is quite corrupt. Remember that Cs was allegedly a centrist party and that originally styled itself as the champion against corruption.  Joining coalitions with the PP in Madrid, Castilla y León and Murcia is in open contradiction with the latter, because all the PP regional chapters were involved in corruption schemes. Being consequent with centrist ideology and anti-corruption stance would have required joining coalitions with the PSOE. The case of Andalusia is different, because the PSOE was governing there for decades and there is the ERE scandal. The Cs "democratic regeneration" principle implies joining the PP in Andalusia but, on the other hand, the arithmetics make Vox indispensable there and normal EU liberals must avoid contact with the far-right. Spanish 'liberals' are different, everybody knows.  In short: the Cs collapse is fully deserved, but the further radicalization of the right paints a gloomy future for the country. I will never forget the ambition of Albert Rivera triggered this turn into the sbyss

[Velasco]

normal EU liberals must avoid contact with the far-right.

To be fair, there doesn’t seem to be a completely coherent position within the European liberals with regards to the far-right. While it is true that some Renew Europe parties maintain a cordon sanitaire policy, the Finnish and Estonian Centre parties, Venstre in Denmark and VVD in the Netherlands (among others) have all in recent times governed with support from, or even in coalition with, so-called far-right parties (the Finns Party, EKRE, the Danish People’s Party and the Party for Freedom, respectively).

You can do like Italy and simply have no liberal parties. Well, we actually have, but all of them are so small and useless and not comparable to anything you mentioned nor even Ciudadanos. But just in case, the current government includes both Italia Viva and Lega, so there you have it (although obviously it is a "national unity" government so it is a bit special).

I suspect that Italy is, once again, the political laboratory of Europe and it's going some steps ahead. Technocratic governments of "national unity" could be the normal in the near future. I don't see it for Spain in the short term, but everything points that Spain will be fully ungovernable in the mid term

I wish that Spanish "liberals", and the moderate right in general, would have seen themselves in the mirror of Angela Merkel

[Velasco]

Financial Times reports about the 'libertarian' regime of Ayuso in Madrid. Apparently some French folks are scaping to the Spanish capital in search of fiesta. Read the full article for a complete picture

https://www.ft.com/content/3b5bc5cc-ce88-44c5-91c9-20d1034e1d99

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   https://www.ft.com/content/3b5bc5cc-ce88-44c5-91c9-20d1034e1d99

A new French generation is heading to Spain, the land that sent Napoleon packing but inspired Édouard Manet, Georges Bizet and Gustave Doré.

Young people from north of the border are pouring into the heart of Madrid, packing the terraces of cafés, wandering through fashionable streets and booking Airbnbs. Their goal? To have a good time — pasarlo bien — and to enjoy life’s diversions in ways not possible at home (...)


Not so in Spain. After imposing one of the world’s toughest lockdowns between March and June last year — during which children were banned for 45 days from venturing outdoors — the country has steered clear of orders to stay at home. Instead, the central government has largely relied on the regions to put their own policies in place against the pandemic’s second and third waves. After a frightening high level of infections in January, rates have been falling for weeks.

Even so, Madrid stands out for its relaxed approach. The centre-right head of the region’s government, Isabel Díaz Ayuso — one of the country’s most polarising political figures — has vowed that the hospitality industry will not be ruined on her watch. So while in Catalonia restaurant dining is prohibited from 5pm, in Madrid you can eat out until 11pm. On sunny weekends, the plazas are full of families and friends nibbling on tapas or ordering la penúltima — the last-but-one drink.
(...)

Perhaps unsurprisingly, Madrid has the highest infection rates in mainland Spain, although case numbers are about a quarter of the level of five weeks ago.

For all the street life in Madrid, people are not permitted to have a friend drop round at home and parties are emphatically forbidden. But the fiestas happen all the same, with an average of almost 400 closed down by the city’s police every weekend, often in tourist apartments (...)  

[Velasco]

Headlines for the new issue of the Voter in Madrid magazine

● Socialism or Freedom: the two major trends for the next spring

_{"Socialism or Freedom" is the battlefield slogan of Ayuso}

● Left-wing parties: discover the new splits for this season

● Do you remember... the centre-right: a political trend nearly as extinct as the highball glass

● Dossier: professions for the future ( the first 20 jobs are waiter or waitress)

● Crash course in French (hospitality level)

https://twitter.com/_infoLibre/status/1370324956601581574?s=19

[Velasco]

Alea jacta est