Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Velasco]

Hi! A brief comeback to comment regional and local elections.

A couple of days ago, El País released 40dB polls for two key regional contests: Madrid and Valencia.

Madrid

PP 47% (+2%)
PSOE 18% (+1%)
MM 18% (+1%)
VOX 9% (=)
UP 4% (-3%)
CS 2% (-2%)

Right-wing premier Ayuso consolidates her grip on the Spanish capital's region. In case UP finishes below the 5% threshold,  the PP will get a majority in its own. The progressive bloc is unable to make gains, in spite of the massive demonsteatiins against the (deliberate) mismanagement of the regional health system. The poll detects a rightward shift in Madrid's society.



Valencia (Comunitat Valenciana)

PP 31.1% (+12.2%)
PSOE 25.9%  (+2.0%)
Compromis 15.5% (-0.9%)
Vox 14.9% (+4.5%)
UP 5.3% (-2.7%)
Cs 3.3% (-14.2%)

There is a tie between the right-wing PP-Vox bloc and the progressive PSOE-Compromis-UP bloc. PP becomes the largest party,  mostly due to the mechanical effect of the Cs transfers. The PSOE, led by premier Ximo Puig, improves slightly. Remarkable Vox gains, slight Compromis decrease (deputy Joan Baldovi replaces Mónica Oltra as candidate), UP on the edge and Cs demise. There is a chance for a new progressive government,  conditioned to the presence of UP in the regional parliament (in case UP finishes below 5%, it will become non-parliamentary)

The result in the Valencian region will be likely more indicativa of the general elections outcome later this year. In case the right-wing bloc seizes the region, the balance of territorial power will switch totally to the right

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Why does Podemos continue to stay independent from the left-wing alliance? They are going to split the vote

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Why does Podemos continue to stay independent from the left-wing alliance? They are going to split the vote

Pride. That’s why they’re not joining Sumar either.

[Velasco]

Why does Podemos continue to stay independent from the left-wing alliance? They are going to split the vote

Pride. That’s why they’re not joining Sumar either.

The point is that, besides splitting the vote, the feud between Pablo Iglesias (Podemos / La Base / Canal Red) and Yolanda Díaz (Sumar) could be extremely costly,  in the sense that unity or disunity to the left of the PSOE will likely determine next general election: either progressive government backed by peripheral nationalists and regionalists, or a PP-Vox right-wing government.

There's something about Pablo Iglesias that is beyond my understanding. You know, the man has a lot of pride and has been playing a key role as the leader of Podemos (the party that has changed Spanish politics) and deputy PM. But Iglesias and his party got burned in a short period of time, due to multiple factors including intensity, acceleration, infighting, mistakes or a brutal harassment focused on Pablo Iglesias and Irene Montero. Remember that Iglesias resigned as deputy PM to contest the Madrid regional election against Ayuso. After a dirty campaign with some dark moments (Vox's racist affiches resembling Nazi propaganda,  among other things) and the Ayuso's landslide,  Iglesias said that he was stepping aside and soon resigned from party's leadership. The problem is that, in the case of Iglesias,  resigning his posts and responsibilities does not mean leaving politics. He is still the leader of Podemos, in spite he was replaced by Ione Belarra in the post of secretary general.  A leader without responsibility. Moreover,  being a media junkie, Pablo Iglesias continued to have a public presence in radio talk shows (alongside  two other former glories ftom the PP and the PSOE, Calvo and Margallo), podcasts (La Base) and lately a TV channel called Canal Red. Nowadays Podemos is a party that follows the editorial line of the Iglesias media, believe it or not. Have you ever heard about the hybris, a Greek word? Search for the meaning, in case you want to know my opinion of PIT (Pablo Iglesias Turrión)

[Oryxslayer]

Why does Podemos continue to stay independent from the left-wing alliance? They are going to split the vote

Pride. That’s why they’re not joining Sumar either.

The point is that, besides splitting the vote, the feud between Pablo Iglesias (Podemos / La Base / Canal Red) and Yolanda Díaz (Sumar) could be extremely costly,  in the sense that unity or disunity to the left of the PSOE will likely determine next general election: either progressive government backed by peripheral nationalists and regionalists, or a PP-Vox right-wing government.

Good post but I think one thing needs to be added: PP+VOX would still be on track for government even if Podemos and Sumar were one. its only been six weeks since the spit started being polled, and the Right was still leading by more than enough back then. If anything, the split seems to have drawn previously apathetic voters to one of the two, in a classic example of the phenomenon where the whole not does not equal the sum of its parts in multiparty parliamentary system.

Now obviously things can change in the upcoming months before the vote, but I think this expectation of defeat also feeds into the infighting. Cause a truly fierce internal political rivalry only can occur when there is no pressures to set aside ones differences, even temporarily, in the name of political power.

[jaichind]

Good post but I think one thing needs to be added: PP+VOX would still be on track for government even if Podemos and Sumar were one. its only been six weeks since the spit started being polled, and the Right was still leading by more than enough back then. If anything, the split seems to have drawn previously apathetic voters to one of the two, in a classic example of the phenomenon where the whole not does not equal the sum of its parts in multiparty parliamentary system.

Now obviously things can change in the upcoming months before the vote, but I think this expectation of defeat also feeds into the infighting. Cause a truly fierce internal political rivalry only can occur when there is no pressures to set aside ones differences, even temporarily, in the name of political power.

I have to imagine even if they net some extra votes the way the D'Hondt method allocates seats with thresholds will for sure hurt them from a total net seat point of view.

[Velasco]

Good post but I think one thing needs to be added: PP+VOX would still be on track for government even if Podemos and Sumar were one. its only been six weeks since the spit started being polled, and the Right was still leading by more than enough back then. If anything, the split seems to have drawn previously apathetic voters to one of the two, in a classic example of the phenomenon where the whole not does not equal the sum of its parts in multiparty parliamentary system.

Now obviously things can change in the upcoming months before the vote, but I think this expectation of defeat also feeds into the infighting. Cause a truly fierce internal political rivalry only can occur when there is no pressures to set aside ones differences, even temporarily, in the name of political power.

I have to imagine even if they net some extra votes the way the D'Hondt method allocates seats with thresholds will for sure hurt them from a total net seat point of view.

I don't think the right would be on track for government in the eventuality that Podemos joins the "Sumar" broader alliance. According to a recent 40db poll, Sumar + Podemos could win 55 seats getting 18% of the vote. In case they were running in their own, Sumar could win 27 seats (10.9%) and Podemos 11 seats (6.9%). The poll says a joint ticket could win 17 seats more than two separate lists, adding a similar vote percentage (the difference for the progressive bloc is 14 seats). Moreover:  a joint ticket would be placed third pushng Vox to the 4th place, what is important in the Spanish electoral system. Keep in mind that Spanish general elections are fought in 50 provincial constituencies (plus 2 aytonomous cities). The small size of most constituencies makes that many votes for the parties placed 4th and 5th are wasted. Additionally the less populated provinces are over-represented with the more populated. There is a rural bias in the allocation of seats,  while the vote for the left-wing Sumar and Podemos is predominantly urban.

https://elpais.com/espana/2023-05-03/el-bloque-de-la-izquierda-perderia-14-escanos-si-podemos-y-sumar-concurren-por-separado.html

On the other hand, I don't think the reason for infighting is that they expect to be defeated. Another question is that folks in the left share the certainty that division leads to defeat. In spite of that conviction, they are still fighting each other. The reasons are  hard to explain and I can only give my guess, in absence of good explanations

[RodPresident]

Good post but I think one thing needs to be added: PP+VOX would still be on track for government even if Podemos and Sumar were one. its only been six weeks since the spit started being polled, and the Right was still leading by more than enough back then. If anything, the split seems to have drawn previously apathetic voters to one of the two, in a classic example of the phenomenon where the whole not does not equal the sum of its parts in multiparty parliamentary system.

Now obviously things can change in the upcoming months before the vote, but I think this expectation of defeat also feeds into the infighting. Cause a truly fierce internal political rivalry only can occur when there is no pressures to set aside ones differences, even temporarily, in the name of political power.

I have to imagine even if they net some extra votes the way the D'Hondt method allocates seats with thresholds will for sure hurt them from a total net seat point of view.

I don't think the right would be on track for government in the eventuality that Podemos joins the "Sumar" broader alliance. According to a recent 40db poll, Sumar + Podemos could win 55 seats getting 18% of the vote. In case they were running in their own, Sumar could win 27 seats (10.9%) and Podemos 11 seats (6.9%). The poll says a joint ticket could win 17 seats more than two separate lists, adding a similar vote percentage (the difference for the progressive bloc is 14 seats). Moreover:  a joint ticket would be placed third pushng Vox to the 4th place, what is important in the Spanish electoral system. Keep in mind that Spanish general elections are fought in 50 provincial constituencies (plus 2 aytonomous cities). The small size of most constituencies makes that many votes for the parties placed 4th and 5th are wasted. Additionally the less populated provinces are over-represented with the more populated. There is a rural bias in the allocation of seats,  while the vote for the left-wing Sumar and Podemos is predominantly urban.

https://elpais.com/espana/2023-05-03/el-bloque-de-la-izquierda-perderia-14-escanos-si-podemos-y-sumar-concurren-por-separado.html

On the other hand, I don't think the reason for infighting is that they expect to be defeated. Another question is that folks in the left share the certainty that division leads to defeat. In spite of that conviction, they are still fighting each other. The reasons are  hard to explain and I can only give my guess, in absence of good explanations

Can be an agreement made like NA+ where Sumar+Podemos run together in smaller constituencies?

[Velasco]

Can be an agreement made like NA+ where Sumar+Podemos run together in smaller constituencies?

I don't know. My hope is that the supporters of Yolanda Díaz  and Pablo Iglesias sit around a table after May 28th elections and forge an agreement. However, I fear the dynamics of confrontation have gone too far. I tend to think there's no room for tactical compromise solutions like the one you are suggesting: either they reach a global agreement, or they will split off

[Velasco]

Average polling for regional elections (source: RTVE)

Aragon

Seats in regional parliament (total: 67)

PP 25 (+9), PSOE 23 (-1), Vox 6 (+3), AE*5 (+5), Podemos 3 (-2), CHA 3 (=), IU 1 (=), Cs 1 (-11), PAR 0 (-3)

" AE: Aragón Existe (related to Teruel Existe and España Vaciada)

In case the result matches average polling, Aragón Existe would be in the position of kingmaker. The right-wing bloc (PP, Vox, Cs) would win 32 seats, while the progressive bloc (PSOE, Podemos, CHA, IU) would win 30 seats

Currently the PSOE governs in coalition with Podemos and the regionalists PAR (centre-right) and CHA (centre-left).  The premier Javier Lambán belongs to the right wing of the PSOE and is a vocal opponent of Catalan nationalism.

Asturias

Seats in regional parliament (total: 45)

PSOE 19 (-1), PP 16 (+6), Vox 4 (+2), Podemos 3 (-1), CxA* 2 (IU =), Foro 1 (-1), Cs 0 (-5)

" CxA: Convocatoria por Asturias (IU, MP and Asturian Left)

PSOE and left-wing parties would win 24 seats, while right-wing parties would total 21 seats

If the result matches this projection, premier Adrián Barbón could be elected for another term.

On a side note, there is a nasty conflict between the Podemos national leadership and the regional candidate Covadonga Tomé (elected in primaries).

Balearic Islands

Seats in regional parliament (total: 59)

PP 22 (+6), PSOE 17 (-2), Vox 6 (+3), UP 4 (-2),  MÉS per Mallorca 4 (=), MÉS per Menorca 3 (+1), El PI 2 (-1), GxF 1 (=), Cs 0 (-5)

MÉS: left-wing wing regionalists in Mallorca and Menorca
El PI: centre-right regionalists in Mallorca
GxF: Formentera independents

Currently the PSOE governs in coalition with Podemos and the left-wing regionalist MÉS. In case the result matches this projection, the PP could govern with the support of Vox and centre-right regionalists, but the latter could turn to the PSOE due to their incompatibility with Vox

Canary Islands

Seats in regional parliament  (total: 70)

PSOE 25 (=), PP 18 (+7), CC 17 (-3), NC 3 (-2), UP 3 (-1), ASG 3 (=), Vox 1 (+1), Cs 0 (-2)

CC: Canary Coalition, centre-right regionalist
NC: New Canaries: centre-left regionalists strong in Gran Canaria
ASG: Gomera 'socialists' led by Casimiro Curbelo

According to this projection,  the progressive government led by Angel Víctor Torres (PSOE) would be 2 seats short from a majority. Eventually the lone Vox represrntative could be decisive, allowing a PP-CC coalition government. Too close to call, actually

[Velasco]

Cantabria

Seats in regional parliament (total: 35)

PP 13 (+4), PRC 9 (-5), PSOE 7 (=), Vox 4 (+2), UP 2 (+2), Cs 0 (-3)

The projection suggests a strong decrease in popularity for the idiosyncratic premier Miguel Angel Revilla,  leader of the regionalist PRC that governsin coalitionwith the PSOE. However, the right-wing bloc could be 1 seat short of a majority, in case UP wins parliamentary representation. Podemos and IU ran in their own four years ago and both finished below the 5% threshold.

Castilla-La Mancha

Seats in regional parliament (total: 33)

PSOE 17 (-2), PP 13 (+3), Vox 3 (+3), Cs 0 (-4)

The PSOE, led by premier Emiliano García-Page, would retain its majority by a narrow margin. García-Page belongs to the right wing of the PSOE

Extremadura

Seats in regional parliament (total: 65)

PSOE 30 (-4), PP 25 (+5), Vox 6 (+6), UP 4 (=), Cs 0 (-7)

The PSOE, led by premier Guillermo Fernández Vara, would lose its majority. It could govern with the support of UP, either in coalition or signing a confidence and supply agreement

Madrid

Seats in regional parliament (total: 135)

PP 66 (+1), MM 27 (+3), PSOE 24 (=), vox 11 (-2), UP 7 (-3)

MM: Más Madrid

Premier Isabel Díaz Ayuso would be on the verge of a majority, while UP struggles to reach the 5% threshold. Accordingcyo this projection Más Madrid is placed in a distant second, so Mónica García would be the leader of the opposition

[Velasco]

Murcia

Seats in regional parliament (total: 45)

PP 19 (+3), PSOE 15 (-2), Vox 8 (+4), UP 3 (+1), Cs 0 (-6)

Currently the PP governs with the support of defectors from Vox and Cs. Unlike in Madrid, I think it's unlikely that Vox will allow the PP to govern in its own

Navarra

Seats in regional parliament  (total: 50)

UPN 14*, PSOE 10 (-1), GBai 9 (=), EH Bildu 8 (+1], PP 4*, Contigo 3**, Vox 2 (+2)

* NA+ (20 seats in 2019): UPN, PP, Cs
** Contigo Navarra: Podemos (2 seats in 2019), IU (1 seat), Batzarre,  Equo

There's no viable alternative to the governing coalition (PSOE-GBAI-Podemos)

La Rioja

Seats in regional parliament  (total: 33)

PP 15 (+3), PSOE 13 (-2), Vox 2 (+2), UP 2 (=), PR-EV 1 (+1), Cs 0 (-4)

Premier Concha Andreu (PSOE) would be replaced by the PP candidate Gonzalo Capellán

Valencia (Comunitat Valenciana)

Seats in regional parliament  (total: 99)

PP 35 (+16), PSOE 29 (+2), Compromis 16 (-1), Vox 14 (+4), UP 5 (-3), Cs 0 (-18)

The continuity of the progressive government is conditioned to the result of UP, that is struggling to reach the 5% threshold

[Velasco]

Average polling in local elections

Madrid

PP 39.6% 24-26 councilors
MM 23.8% 15 councilors
PSOE 17.3% 10-11 councilors
VOX 7.6% 4-5 vouncilors (+1)
Cs 4.7% 0-2 councilors
UP 4.7% 0-2 councilors

The PP has a clear lead in the polls, even though it’s clear yhat mayor José Luis Martínez Almeida is not as popular as premier Ayuso. In all likelihood Almeida will be elected for another term, but maybe there's a slim chance for a progressive majority in case UP reaches the 5% threshold and Cs falls below. Más Madrid candidate Rita Maestre is set to continue as leader of the opposition, placed second ahead of former Industry minister Reyes Maroto (PSOE). The other candidates are Javier Ortega Smith (Vox), Begoña Vollacis (Cs) and Roberto Sotomayor (UP)

Barcelona (source: El Periódico)

Junts  20.1% 9-10 councilors
PSC  20.0% 9-10 councilors
BCOMU 19.6% 9 councilors
ERC 14.7% 7 councilors
PP 7.2% 3 councilors
VOX 5.7% 2 councilors
CUP 4.9% 0-2 councilors
Cs 2 8% 0 councilors

Extremely uncertain. Right now there's a three-cornered contest between Xavier Trias (Junts), Jaume Collboni (PSC) and Ada Colau (BCOMU) with Ernest Maragall (ERC) trailing behind

Situation map, according to political scientist Pablo Simón

[Velasco]

It may sound odd 12 years after, but ETA was the protagonist in the last week of campaign thanks to Bildu and the PP. It happened that the Basque nationalist coalition decided to incorporate former ETA militants -some of them were convicted for blood crimes- in some of the lists contesting local elections, which is legal but raised considerableoutrage amongst victims and the society as a whole. That decision is a clear mistake on the part of Bildu and I guess it's only explained by a desire to congratiate with hardcore, radical or nostalgic elements within the abertzale ("patriotic") left. When those folks realized the unanimous and adverse reaction, the former ETA members stated they won't take office in case of being elected. Nevertheless the PP has taken advantage shamelessly shaking the ETA spectre, to the point that some victims have asked the party not to use their pain for electoral purposes. In the front row is Madrid premier Isabel Díaz Ayuso, who is siding with Vox asking for the banning of Bildu, that is more or less rejected by the hesitant Feijóo. Ayuso's  statements are in no way innocent, for they reveal a mid-term project. The banning of Bildu would be followed by the ibanning of Catalan separatist parties and even by thebanning of the moderate PNV. Eliminating peripheral nationalists would pave the way for right-wing majorities, at the cost of igniting Catalonia and the Basque Country. Such measures would put Spain in the track of Hungary and Turkey.  Needless to say that Ayuso plans to replace Feijóo, who is trapped in the Madrid jungle and is proving to be an incompetent, indecisive leader. The main argument used by the PP is that the progressive coalition government is backed by ETA. The truth is that Bildu is negotiating with the government exclusively on social policies sidelining any demand on sovereignty,

Today's 40 dB poll for El País sees no change in the key regional contests of Madrid and Valencia

Madrid

PP 46.8% (66-69 seats)
MM 18,8% (26-28 seats)
PSOE 17.6% (25-26 seats)
VOX 8.4% (11-12 seats)
UP 4.9% (0-7 seats)
Cs 2.1% (0 seats)

UP is on the verge of surpassing the 5% threshold. My guess is that it will get some tactical votes and win parliamentary representation

Valencian Community

PP 31.7% (35 seats)
PSOE 25.6% (27 seats)
Compromís 17.4% (18 seats)
VOX 13.3% (14 seats)
UP 5.2% (5 seats)
Cs 3.7% (0 seats)

[Velasco]

Average polling by region

Aragon

Seats in regional parliament: 67

PP 26, PSOE 24, VOX 6. Aragón Existe 4, Podemos 3, CHA 3, IU 1

PSOE premier Javier Lambán could survive with the support of left-wing parties and the Emptied Spain platfprm Aragón Existe

Asturias

Seats in regional parliament: 45

PSOE 20, PP 16, VOX 3, Podemos 3, CxA (IU, MP) 2, FORO 1

Adrián Barbón (PSOE) projected for re-election

Balearic Islands

Seats in parliament: 59

PP 22, PSOE 17, VOX 6, UP 4, MÉS (Mallorca) 4, MÉS (Menorca) 3, El PI 2, GxF (Formentera) 1

The centre-right regionalist El PI, that is relatively strong in rural Mallorca, will determine the next regional government. El PI is the heir of Unió Mallorquina, a party that allied in the past with PP and PSOE and was dissolved after serious corruption issues. These regionalists in the Catalan-sepaking Mallorca are not very compatible with the hyper centralist Vox. Anything could happen

Canary Islands

Seats in regional parliament: 70

PSOE 25, PP 18, CC 17, NC 3, UP 3, ASG 3, VOX 1

The Canary Islands are not easy to poll, having 7 insular constituencies of varied size plus a regional constituency created in 2019. It seems that there's a tie between the forces backing premier Ángle Victor Torres (PSOE) and the opposition (PP, CC and eventually VOX). My guess is that it will depend on the results of centre-left NC in Gan Canaria, as well as UP and VOX in Gran canaria and Tenerife. There is a new left-wing party led by Alberto Rogríguez, former Podemos MP for Santa Cruz de Tenerife. Drago Verdes is not expected to win seats, according to the polls.

[Velasco]

40 dB polls for the main Spanish cities

Madrid

PP 41.0% 25-27 councilors
MM 19.5% 11-13
PSOE 18.0% 11-12
VOX 8.0% 4-5
UP 6.1% 0-3
Cs 5.4% 0-3

Clear lead for José Luis Martínez Almeida (PP)

Barcelona

PSC 21.9% 10
JUNTS 19.5% 9
BCOMÚ 18.0% 9
ERC 14.2% 7
PP 8.2% 4
VOX 5.9% 2
CUP 4.3%
Cs 1.9%

Jaume Collboni (PSC) is taking the lead

Valencia

PP 33.2% 12 councilors
Compromís 25.1% 9 councilors
PSOE 21.9% 8 councilors
VOX 11.2% 4 councilors
Cs 3.1%
UP 2.8%

Joan Ribó (Compromís) could retain the mayoralty

Sevilla

PSOE 36.9% 12-13
PP 34.9% 12
CA* 8.9% 3
VOX 8.7% 3
AA 4.9% 0-1
Cs 2.5%

* CA: Con Andalucía (Podemos, IU, MP)

Narrow lead for Antonio Muñoz (PSOE)

Zaragoza

PP 37.5% 12-13
PSOE 26.7% 9-10
VOX 8.5% 3
ZEC* 8.0% 2-3
CHA 5.7% 0-2
Podemos 5.3% 0-1
Cs 3.2%

* Zaragoza En Común, left-wing independents

Clear lead for Natalia Chueca (PP)

[Mike88]

Polls in general seem to be very favourable to the PP, but I would advise to take them with a grain of salt due to Spain's tradition of polling fiascoes.

My opinion about the whole Bildu thing is that it's very slippery slope. ETA may be dead and buried but the scars are still present in many parts of Spain. I don't think the PSOE did well by negotiating bills with them in Parliament, nor is the PP right by bringing up ETA, ETA, ETA from time to time to attack the PSOE. It's a very complicated issue.

[Former President tack50]

I am very late, but here is my take and prediction for the regional elections for Spain.

Overview
To be honest, it seems to me like most regions should be "up for grabs". There are a handful of safe ones, but for the most part either the left or the right can win.

After two very successful election years in 2015 and 2019, the left is really exclusively playing defence, with no good pickup opportunities at all (with one tiny exception). As for each individual region, here's my take

Aragón
Javier Lambán is one of the big 3 conservative PSOE premiers, alongside Emiliano-García Page (Castille-La Mancha) and Guillermo Fernández Vara (Extremadura); despite Aragon not being a super conservative region itself.

Polling seems to suggest a very tight race with the España Vaciada movement (basically Teruel Existe, the rural regionalists) being kingmakers. From the declarations from leader Tomás Guitarte, he will talk to the right, but clearly prefers a left wing government. So I think PSOE will narrowly get to hold this with a Frankenstein coalition, but it's not entirely clear.

Also the big story (and very underrated) is the likely disappearance of the historical Aragon Regionalist Party (PAR); a centre-right regionalist party. It seems that supporting the current left wing government in order not to allow Vox to come in has hurt them in the end; though it could also just be Teruel Existe basically eating up their entire electorate.

Rating: Lean PSOE

Asturias

Arguably the most left of centre "culturally Castillian" region; PSOE should cruise to an easy first place here, with the left not having any issues to form a government. I am also not aware of much from premier Adrián Barbón, whether good or bad.

It might be tight, but the left should win this unless they are doing really poorly nationally and polls miss badly

Rating: Safe PSOE

Balearic Islands

Premier Francina Armengol is arguably the most progressive PSOE premier, and certainly one of the more "nationalist" ones alongside Navarra premier Maria Chivite. Here it seems that polls consistently put PP-Vox just one or two seats shy of a majority, or at a majority. So they could win one, but I would not say they are favoured.

Kingmakers would be the centre-right nationalists from PI. However, I have little doubt that they will side with the left. Yes they may be centre-right, but their predecessor party of UM consistently sided with the left when PP lost a majority in 1999 and 2007, so they haven't backed PP at the regional level in decades. And that was when Vox didn't exist, which makes any sort of regionalist support extremely hard to get.

It's not impossible for the right to win this, but they are clearly not favoured

Rating: Likely PSOE

Canary Islands

My home region, and one where it seems premier Ángel Victor Torres is quite popular, but this doesn't seem to be quite enough for him to easily cruise for reelection. This might be because of the "Tito Berni" corruption scandal mentioned earlier. PSOE was actually very favoured until then so I think it certainly hurt them.

However his opponents aren't exactly running amazing campaigns either, with Fernando Clavijo running against him despite also being involved in corruption scandals and PP running the fairly low profile Manuel Dominguez.

From a bloc perspective, the result won't matter much, as it will come down to whether Vox makes it into parliament (which is very unlikely and don't think will happen, but not impossible) and what the local cacique from La Gomera, Casimiro Curbelo, decides to do.

The Canary Islands are notoriously hard to poll but it seems that the main story will come down to which of PP and CC comes ahead. I personally think it will be CC in terms of seats at the electoral system is still very favourable to them, but wouldn't be surprised if PP beat them.

Then, the real battle for the premiership begins, also known as "who can sell Casimiro Curbelo more stuff". Personally I think PSOE is favoured as they have slightly more flexibility with coalition-building (a PSOE-CC or even a PSOE-PP coalition would not be inconcievable); and incumbency gives them a bit of a boost. La Gomera will probably get golden plated roads in the process, and everyone will be happy

In any case, this is an election that won't be solved at the ballot box, but rather in the later coalition-building meetings.

Ftr, if Vox did make it, things ironically become worse for the right, as CC will not work with them under any circumstances by the way, so add that to the list of reasons to have the left ahead.

Rating: Lean PSOE

Cantabria

Uber-populist and very popular premier Miguel Ángel Revilla from the regionalist PRC has been leading the region for quite a while now. However it seems he has lost a ton of momentum since the last election and is not favoured at all to win. However, he does not need to come in first, just for the left to add up. It seems this will come down to whether UP makes the threshold, as IU and Podemos went separately last time. If they do, he probably gets another term in office.

Personally, I will actually go against polling here and say they don't make the threshold! They got 5% in 2019 combined, and that space in the left to me it seems like it's going down, not up, given the infighting.

So I will give the advantage to PP here in spite of the reasonably good polling for the incumbent. Worth noting that a majority for the right with UP in is not impossible, just unlikely.

Also LMAO at "Leader since 1983" for Revilla. I genuinely wonder when will he retire.

Rating: Lean PP (flip)

Castille-La Mancha

One of the traditionally left-wing regions of Spain that has moved very far to the right in general elections but keeps electing PSOE at the local level. With a massive ton of salt, maybe one can draw comparisons to US Southern Democrats back in the day?

Anyways Emiliano García Page is the most conservative of the 3 conservative PSOE premiers, the one that fights publically with Sanchez more and what not. It seems his strategy of keeping a distance to him might work at keeping PSOE high, but seems like he will fall just short in the end. Polling puts him at literally just 1 seat away from the majority. Will he get it? I think not sadly

Worth noting that Castille-La Mancha uses an absolutely deranged electoral system where you de facto need like 9% to make it in. They have 33 seats in parliament, split across their 5 provinces. Worst electoral system in the country; and a more sensible one would mean UP (polling at 6.5%) would make it in and prop Page up.

Rating: Lean PP (flip)

Extremadura

Guillermo Fernández Vara is the unofficial leader of the 3 conservative PSOE premiers. This is in any case a more rural region* and interestingly, that makes it more left-wing (at least electorally which is what matters here).

It seems that those few extra points the left will get, plus the fact that Extremadura actually has a sensible electoral system that meanst UP will make it in will make the difference. Vara will lose his majority, but keep the premiership through a deal with UP. It will be hard but I think he will make it through.

Rating: Lean PSOE

La Rioja

This was basically where the 2019 left wing wave stopped, with conservative region La Rioja being narrowly picked up by the left. I predicted the upsed here in fact

In any case while I think premier Concha Andreu is not exactly unpopular, this is the kind of scenario where the right will easily pick this one up just by the national environment alone. Even if the rural regionalist coalition of Partido Riojano and España Vaciada makes it, it seems they will not get to be kingmakers. Only reason I don't think it's safe is the possibility of something crazy happening and incumbency

Rating: Likely PP (flip)

Madrid
The region I'm currently living in and tbh it's been a surprisingly low profile campaign, did not expect that. Maybe it is because Isabel Diaz Ayuso will cruise to another landslide. Don't ask me why, as I do not have answers either.

The left has no chances and the only question is whether UP makes it in, as that will determine whether Ayuso has a majority or whether she has to deal with Vox (you know things are bad when f-ing Vox rejects your proposals, her budget was defeated in parliament!)

Beyond that there's a somewhat interesting fight as to whether MM or PSOE gets to lead the opposition, with MM very much favoured and I think thye will. Madrid's PSOE branch is, using the Trumpian term, very "low energy".

I will in fact go ahead and claim that PP will sooner lose Murcia than this. Ayuso could go ahead and shoot a bunch of people in Gran Via and she wouldn't lose any voters!

Rating: Safe PP

Murcia

The most conservative region of Spain even if its government is in chaos and dependent on splitters given how Cs descended into anarchy. In any case, no surprise the left here has no chance. Only question is whether Vox gets cabinet ministers and how strong its position is vs PP; as it's also the biggest Vox stronghold, so no chance of a PP majority. Maybe one can also pay attention as to whether the Cartagena regionalists make it in, which I don't think they will.

Rating: Safe PP

Navarra

UPN fell into big infighting, which basically hurts any chances they may have had of making a comeback (and in fact also hurts them a lot at the local level). PP will make big gains but nowhere near enough to compensate.

PSOE seems like it will go up, so there is no alternative to the current left wing government, they should have it in the bag.

Rating: Safe PSOE

Valencia

The "marquee" race, given it's by far the largest region that's actually competitive, and it also really acts as a good summary of the entire election and all of Spanish politics. Left wing nationalist Compromís was involved in a scandal, with their popular leader Monica Oltra forced to resign; though they have replaced her with also very popular Joan Baldoví, probably the best they could do.

The current government's majority is slim and the right seems like it's made a bit of a comeback, polling just above a majority. However, this will be the other region where I will go against polling and claim the left manages to barely keep this.

Worth noting UP is polling just above the threshold. If they miss it, then obviously they have no shot.

Rating: Lean PSOE

Ceuta
The two autonomous cities paint very different pictures. In Ceuta, the muslim residents are split, and PSOE still gets a good chunk of votes from them. Also, this is a region where PP and Vox have very very bad relations.

Current polling suggests PP is clearly ahead, with PP-Vox holding a comfortable majority. Because of how elections for mayor work in Spain, a formal PP-Vox coalition is extremely unlikely, with Jesús Vivas Lara most likely going to lead a minority government. Either way, he should be safe

Rating: Safe PP

Melilla
Oh boy where do I start. Back in 2019, Cs got this despite having literally 1 seat, with PSOE and the muslim party CPM voting for them! The mayor-president eventually left Cs as the party collapsed and it seems he is not bothering with reelection.

Current polling suggests it is a super tight race both between PP and CPM for first place and between the right and the left (though polling is probably abysmally bad here).

However there has been a scandal, where CPM has been accused of literal vote-buying, with the involvement of Morocco's secret services! Furthermore, the CPM leader, Mustafá Aberchan, has already been convicted for vote buying once! To be honest I find it absolutely disgusting.

In any case, the election is going ahead as normal, other than Melilla residents being forced to show their ID to vote by mail, which is normally not necessary. I feel the right will keep this, but I am not sure about it.

Oh and this is the only possibility the left has for a pickup.

Rating: Lean PP

[Velasco]

. My opinion about the whole Bildu thing is that it's very slippery slope. ETA may be dead and buried but the scars are still present in many parts of Spain. I don't think the PSOE did well by negotiating bills with them in Parliament, nor is the PP right by bringing up ETA, ETA, ETA from time to time to attack the PSOE. It's a very complicated issue.

It sounds like a reasonable take. I don't like Bildu very much because of that legacy. Anyway it should be noted that EH  Bildu is a coalition that incorporates not only the heirs of Batasuna (the alleged political wing), but also people that were vocal against ETA within the left-wing pro-inndependence camp. Said this, I think the involvement of the separatist ERC and Bildu in national politics is a positive development. Politics is about negotiating with people with visions and perspectives different from ours, sometimes with people in opposite camps. The PSOE is in the opposite canp of ERC and Bildu on issues related to sovereignty,  but sometimes is able to find a common ground with them on ither issues (housing policy, for instance). As for the negotiations with ERC, I was fully in favour of abolishing the outdated crime of sedition. However, I didn't like changes in the misappropriation. Nevertheless, negotiation and exchange are the essence of politics. Sectarian confrontation and the inability to talk and reach agreements with adversaries are essentially anti-pilitical, in my opinion.

[Mike88]

. My opinion about the whole Bildu thing is that it's very slippery slope. ETA may be dead and buried but the scars are still present in many parts of Spain. I don't think the PSOE did well by negotiating bills with them in Parliament, nor is the PP right by bringing up ETA, ETA, ETA from time to time to attack the PSOE. It's a very complicated issue.

It sounds like a reasonable take. I don't like Bildu very much because of that legacy. Anyway it should be noted that EH  Bildu is a coalition that incorporates not only the heirs of Batasuna (the alleged political wing), but also people that were vocal against ETA within the left-wing pro-inndependence camp. Said this, I think the involvement of the separatist ERC and Bildu in national politics is a positive development. Politics is about negotiating with people with visions and perspectives different from ours, sometimes with people in opposite camps. The PSOE is in the opposite canp of ERC and Bildu on issues related to sovereignty,  but sometimes is able to find a common ground with them on ither issues (housing policy, for instance). As for the negotiations with ERC, I was fully in favour of abolishing the outdated crime of sedition. However, I didn't like changes in the misappropriation. Nevertheless, negotiation and exchange are the essence of politics. Sectarian confrontation and the inability to talk and reach agreements with adversaries are essentially anti-pilitical, in my opinion.

I would distinguish ERC from Bildu. ERC never had any terrorist branches and acted always within the "system". Bildu, I think it's a different case and it's, again, complicated. We're dealing with a very delicate thing that isn't that far in the past. I'm not a supporter of illegalizing parties because of this or that, as in the end, it may, or will, backfire, but the Bildu case I would say caution, caution.

[Zinneke]

It's also a bit rich to think of PP as "respectable" compared to these parties...they have a lot of blood on their hands too.

[Velasco]

. My opinion about the whole Bildu thing is that it's very slippery slope. ETA may be dead and buried but the scars are still present in many parts of Spain. I don't think the PSOE did well by negotiating bills with them in Parliament, nor is the PP right by bringing up ETA, ETA, ETA from time to time to attack the PSOE. It's a very complicated issue.

It sounds like a reasonable take. I don't like Bildu very much because of that legacy. Anyway it should be noted that EH  Bildu is a coalition that incorporates not only the heirs of Batasuna (the alleged political wing), but also people that were vocal against ETA within the left-wing pro-inndependence camp. Said this, I think the involvement of the separatist ERC and Bildu in national politics is a positive development. Politics is about negotiating with people with visions and perspectives different from ours, sometimes with people in opposite camps. The PSOE is in the opposite canp of ERC and Bildu on issues related to sovereignty,  but sometimes is able to find a common ground with them on ither issues (housing policy, for instance). As for the negotiations with ERC, I was fully in favour of abolishing the outdated crime of sedition. However, I didn't like changes in the misappropriation. Nevertheless, negotiation and exchange are the essence of politics. Sectarian confrontation and the inability to talk and reach agreements with adversaries are essentially anti-pilitical, in my opinion.

I would distinguish ERC from Bildu. ERC never had any terrorist branches and acted always within the "system". Bildu, I think it's a different case and it's, again, complicated. We're dealing with a very delicate thing that isn't that far in the past. I'm not a supporter of illegalizing parties because of this or that, as in the end, it may, or will, backfire, but the Bildu case I would say caution, caution.

The issue is indeed complicated and I would say there's a lot of caution and reserve in the PSOE. We haven't seen yet coalitions between PSOE and Bildu at local or regional levels, among other things because some wounds are still too recent. But I think it's neccessary to talk with Bildu and normalize its existence, which is compatible to criticism on the inclusion of former ETA members in electoral lists. On the other hand, this issue is also sensible for the people in Bidu's camp: they have their victims, too. While I'm not very sympathetic with the friendly attitude of some folks in Podemos, I see no harm in talking with them about housing policy and finding some common ground. We have asked these people to engage in politics and leave violence. They did, either by conviction or forced by circumstances. It's time for politics, then.

[Zinneke]

Wonder if the Vinicius affair is waking people up to the normalisation of casual racism in Spain? Oh no wait the canis are on tiktok listening to Ayuso's jingle and singing it.

[Velasco]

Wonder if the Vinicius affair is waking people up to the normalisation of casual racism in Spain? 

Some people is awaken; others are not. Among the first group, some people is noting the normalization  of racist attitudes is not unrelated to the surge of the far right and (i could  say) that particular form of rightwing populism we have in Madrid. I think other people is a bit ashamed of the Vinicius affair due to its international diffusion. Additionally some people is noting that criticism on Vinicius' attitude is reminiscent of stereotypes denigrating defiant blacks, etcetera. I mean , you can find all types of persons in a certain country. On the other hand, from time to time I see  people with racist opinions, either in my job place or in my neighbourhood. I wouldn't say it's a general attitude, but it's not uncommon.  When a party like Vox gets 15% of the vote,  that's telling something. However, it's not wise making gross generalizations about the people voting Vox (or Ayuso in Madrid). There are always people  who vote to their guts, ready to embrace the ones who appear politically incorrect or whatever. I think the song of Ayuso's fans could be "I don't care, I love it". Well, not really. Rather, it'd be that terrible cover of that song performed by Ayuso's friend Mario Vaquerizo and Las Nancys Rubias: "me da igual,  me encanta "

The campaign is about to finish and went almost unnoticed for me. I've only heard a rightwing populist local candidate just below home (sort of "ni ni" speech: "we are neither left nor right... we are going to clean the town"). Some news  about alleged vote buying in Melilla and  a small town in Almería, too. I think  I'm leaning to vote PSOE in local and regional elections. My father is going to vote for a regionalist party.

[Mike88]

The campaign is now over. The last few days seemed to have been dominated by reports of vote buying in a few towns. In Mellila, PP and CpM were caught trying to buy votes, and PSOE was also caught buying votes in one Andalusia town, Mojácar.