Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Mike88]

Last events of the main parties:

PSOE - Spanish Socialist Workers' Party

PP - People's Party

Vox

Sumar

Podemos

C's - Ciudadanos

[Mike88]

Election day has arrived. There are 35,522,806 registered voters and 60,542 precincts. Up for grabs are 8,131 municipalities and 12 regions plus Ceuta and Melilla.

Turnout updates are expected at 2pm and 6pm, local time.

Polls close at 8pm (7pm London time, 2pm New York time) and I believe that GAD3 will release predictions on who wins in the major races.

Results page: https://resultados.locales2023.es/

TVE 24 h live feed:

[Mike88]

As we wait for the national figures, in Madrid region turnout, at 1pm, is up compared with both 2019 and 2021:

2023: 29.16% (+2.57%)
2021: 26.59%
2019: 24.58%

[Mike88]

2pm turnout update:

2023: 36.70% (+1.60%)
2019: 35.10%

[Velasco]

I went to the polling station. It took me some minutes to find the ballots I was looking for.  Here in the Canary Islands we have four different ballots: Councilors  (white), Canarian Parliament [ two ballots: insular constituency,  sepia; regional constituency, yellow), and Cabildo (insular government,  green)

I voted for the following candidates

Regional premier: Ángel Víctor Torres (PSOE)
Mayor of Las Palmas: Carolina Darias (PSOE)
Chair (president) of the Cabildo: Antonio Morales (NC)

My ontention is voting Sumar (Yolanda Díaz) in the general elections,  but we'll see

[Former President tack50]

I went to the polling station. It took me some minutes to find the ballots I was looking for.  Here in the Canary Islands we have four different ballots: Councilors  (white), Canarian Parliament [ two ballots: insular constituency,  sepia; regional constituency, yellow), and Cabildo (insular government,  green)

I voted for the following candidates

Regional premier: Ángel Víctor Torres (PSOE)
Mayor of Las Palmas: Carolina Darias (PSOE)
Chair (president) of the Cabildo: Antonio Morales (NC)

My ontention is voting Sumar (Yolanda Díaz) in the general elections,  but we'll see

As someone who voted by mail a couple days ago, I'm surprised we voted for pretty much the same candidates lol (I ended up going with Pedro Quevedo and NC for mayor, which was the hardest one to decide)

Either way, I think NC should retain the Cabildo and PSOE is almost guaranteed to retain the mayorship. The regional government is the hardest, but it probably won't be decided by the actual votes, but rather by what Casimiro Curbelo wants.

[Peeperkorn]

I went to the polling station. It took me some minutes to find the ballots I was looking for.  Here in the Canary Islands we have four different ballots: Councilors  (white), Canarian Parliament [ two ballots: insular constituency,  sepia; regional constituency, yellow), and Cabildo (insular government,  green)

I voted for the following candidates

Regional premier: Ángel Víctor Torres (PSOE)
Mayor of Las Palmas: Carolina Darias (PSOE)
Chair (president) of the Cabildo: Antonio Morales (NC)

My ontention is voting Sumar (Yolanda Díaz) in the general elections,  but we'll see

Are there many political differences between the islands or do they usually vote in a similar way?

[Mike88]

6pm turnout update:

2023: 51.48% (+1.55%)
2019: 49.93%

[Mike88]

Turnout seems on path to reach 67%. If that happens it will be the best local election turnout since 2003.

We'll see.

[Mike88]

6pm turnout by major city:

Madrid - 56.69% (+4.66%)
Barcelona - 48.70% (-3.30%)
Valencia - 60.09% (+8.29%)
Zaragoza - 52.46% (+3.06%)
Sevilla - 48.43% (+4.21%)
Bilbao - 46.60% (-4.45%)

[Mike88]

6pm turnout by major region (electoral importance that is):

Valencia - 57.81% (+6.64%)
Castilla-La-Mancha - 57.47% (+4.23%)
Aragón - 54.61% (+2.84%)
Extremadura - 57.14% (+3.63%)
Madrid - 56.98% (+5.65%)

[Velasco]

I went to the polling station. It took me some minutes to find the ballots I was looking for.  Here in the Canary Islands we have four different ballots: Councilors  (white), Canarian Parliament [ two ballots: insular constituency,  sepia; regional constituency, yellow), and Cabildo (insular government,  green)

I voted for the following candidates

Regional premier: Ángel Víctor Torres (PSOE)
Mayor of Las Palmas: Carolina Darias (PSOE)
Chair (president) of the Cabildo: Antonio Morales (NC)

My ontention is voting Sumar (Yolanda Díaz) in the general elections,  but we'll see

As someone who voted by mail a couple days ago, I'm surprised we voted for pretty much the same candidates lol (I ended up going with Pedro Quevedo and NC for mayor, which was the hardest one to decide)

Either way, I think NC should retain the Cabildo and PSOE is almost guaranteed to retain the mayorship. The regional government is the hardest, but it probably won't be decided by the actual votes, but rather by what Casimiro Curbelo wants.

Yes, Casimiro Curbelo will likely decide who's the next premier. He could go easily for that terrible CC leader called Fernando Clavijo. I hope Ángel Víctor Torres remains, because I really do like him. I remember myself watching his appearances in the summer of 2019, during the terrible fires in Gran Canaria, while thinking "this is the way to act undertragic circumstances". The balance is not entirely positive,  (a lot of unsolved problems in the Health Service and the Social Rights area, for instance), but Torres is a good leader and the progressive government represents a breath of fresh air after 26 years of CC regime.  I also like Carolina Darias, for she looks like a competent bureaucrat. So the yellow and white ballots were easy choices for me.  I could have chosen yhe UP sepia ballot for the Gran Canaria constituency,  but I have a low opinion of candidate Noemí Santana and opted for the careerist Sebastián Franquis (PSOE). It's the third time I vote for Antonio Morales, because he's the progressive candidate with the best chances to win and I find him more acceptable than Román Rodríguez or Pedro Quevedo (I would never vote for these two). Still,  I have serious doubts about the viability of the Chira-Soria project sponsored by Morales

[Mike88]

30 minutes until polls close.

[Former President tack50]

I went to the polling station. It took me some minutes to find the ballots I was looking for.  Here in the Canary Islands we have four different ballots: Councilors  (white), Canarian Parliament [ two ballots: insular constituency,  sepia; regional constituency, yellow), and Cabildo (insular government,  green)

I voted for the following candidates

Regional premier: Ángel Víctor Torres (PSOE)
Mayor of Las Palmas: Carolina Darias (PSOE)
Chair (president) of the Cabildo: Antonio Morales (NC)

My ontention is voting Sumar (Yolanda Díaz) in the general elections,  but we'll see

Are there many political differences between the islands or do they usually vote in a similar way?

There are many political differences, but an analysis is far from straightforward and localism in the islands runs rampant. So it's not quite as simple as "these places lean left, these others right".

The islands that vote the most differently are tiny La Gomera (Casimiro Curbelo's personal fiefdom, ASG runs basically everything there; with PSOE being distant opposition) and Gran Canaria (which despises CC with a passion and is the strongest place for NC by far)

[Former President tack50]

I went to the polling station. It took me some minutes to find the ballots I was looking for.  Here in the Canary Islands we have four different ballots: Councilors  (white), Canarian Parliament [ two ballots: insular constituency,  sepia; regional constituency, yellow), and Cabildo (insular government,  green)

I voted for the following candidates

Regional premier: Ángel Víctor Torres (PSOE)
Mayor of Las Palmas: Carolina Darias (PSOE)
Chair (president) of the Cabildo: Antonio Morales (NC)

My ontention is voting Sumar (Yolanda Díaz) in the general elections,  but we'll see

As someone who voted by mail a couple days ago, I'm surprised we voted for pretty much the same candidates lol (I ended up going with Pedro Quevedo and NC for mayor, which was the hardest one to decide)

Either way, I think NC should retain the Cabildo and PSOE is almost guaranteed to retain the mayorship. The regional government is the hardest, but it probably won't be decided by the actual votes, but rather by what Casimiro Curbelo wants.

Yes, Casimiro Curbelo will likely decide who's the next premier. He could go easily for that terrible CC leader called Fernando Clavijo. I hope Ángel Víctor Torres remains, because I really do like him. I remember myself watching his appearances in the summer of 2019, during the terrible fires in Gran Canaria, while thinking "this is the way to act undertragic circumstances". The balance is not entirely positive,  (a lot of unsolved problems in the Health Service and the Social Rights area, for instance), but Torres is a good leader and the progressive government represents a breath of fresh air after 26 years of CC regime.  I also like Carolina Darias, for she looks like a competent bureaucrat. So the yellow and white ballots were easy choices for me.  I could have chosen yhe UP sepia ballot for the Gran Canaria constituency,  but I have a low opinion of candidate Noemí Santana and opted for the careerist Sebastián Franquis (PSOE). It's the third time I vote for Antonio Morales, because he's the progressive candidate with the best chances to win and I find him more acceptable than Román Rodríguez or Pedro Quevedo (I would never vote for these two). Still,  I have serious doubts about the viability of the Chira-Soria project sponsored by Morales

Ironically I have a very different analysis in this!

I don't really like Darias all that much. She is competent, but for some reason I don't like her parachuting into the city. Also I disagree with her delaying stuff at the end of the pandemic (or even taking the Healthcare minister post tbh). I am also not a fan of Pedro Quevedo's job in the city council (he is fine in Congress though); but he seemed the lesser evil among the left; as I did not really consider a right wing vote at all this time as I felt the city was better ran than in the 2015-19 period.

Also I have an entirely opposite opinion on the Chira-Soria project. It's a project that will bring a ton of renewable energy (iircy like 30% of the island's consumption?). Yes, I believe there are some (tbh, fairly minor and petty) environmental concerns, but I will easily take those over delaying the energy transition and the fight against climate change. Ironically a fear I had with him was not being commited enough to the project lol

Finally for whatever reason I had a soft-spot for UxGC during the entire campaign. I didn't seriously consider them for any election level, but for some reason I really enjoyed their campaign. Kind of hoping they do well (as in, get representation and possibly some influence wherever there are right-wing governments).

[Velasco]

[
Are there many political differences between the islands or do they usually vote in a similar way?

Each island is different and is a microcosm, even though they can follow the general trend (attenuated or agravantes depending on local factors). In regional elections the two central and most populated islands (Tenerife and Gran Canaria represent more than 80% of the vote) have almost opposite behaviours. Historically Tenerife has been the strongest CC fiefdom (ATI-AIC before 1993), even though that hegemony was broken in the 2019 elections. Gran Canaria traditionally leans to one of the two main national parties (PP or PSOE). CC is compatatively weaker in Gran Canaria,  while the centre-left NC (CC splinter predated by old leftwing regionalist parties like AC-INC) is strong in that island and almost non-existent in the rest. There are also differences between the peripheral islands. In the eastern islands Fuerte entre has been traditionally dominated by CC-AM, while Lanzarote has been always a terrible mess. In thexwestern islands La Palma and El Hierro lean to CC with PSOE and PP coming behind, ehile La Gomera is the personal fiefdom of Casimiro Curbelo (formerly PSOE, now ASG)

[Mike88]

Polls are now closed.

GAD3 predictions:

Regions:

Valencia - PP+Vox could have a majority
Madrid - Ayuso wins a majority
Aragón - PP+Vox could also have a majority
Castilla-La-Mancha - PSOE wins, but a PP+Vox majority is possible
Baleares - PP wins, but a left majority is possible
Navarra - UPN wins, but a government formation will be complicated

Cities:

Madrid - PP wins a majority
Barcelona - Colau ahead, but very close with PSC and Trias
Valencia - PP wins and has a majority with Vox
Zaragoza - PP wins and has a majority with Vox
Seville - PP ahead of PSOE

So far, quite a good result for PP, but these are polls not exit polls and lets wait for the count.

[Mike88]

GAD3 also predicts that PP will be the most voted party nationwide in the local elections with more than 1 million votes ahead of PSOE.

[MRCVzla]

GAD3 polls for RTVE/Forta (regional broadcasters):
Comunitat Valenciana
PP 37-38
PSOE 31-33
Vox 13-14
Compromís 12-14
UP 3

Comunidad de Madrid
PP 70-72
PSOE 27-28
Más Madrid 20
Vox 9-10
UP 7

Aragón
PP 28-29
PSOE 22-23
Vox 7-9
Podemos 2-3
CHA 2-3
Aragón Existe (España Vaciada) 2
IU 1

Castilla-La Mancha
PSOE 16-18
PP 12-13
Vox 3-4

Illes Balears
PP 21-22
PSOE 17-18
Vox 7-8
Més per Mallorca 4-5
UP 4
Més per Menorca 2
El PI 0-2
Gent x Formentera 1

Navarra
UPN 12-13
PSN 10-11
EH Bildu 9
Geroa Bai 8-9
PP 5
Contigo/Zurekin (UP) 3-4
Vox 2
-----------------------------
Madrid city
PP 28-30
Más Madrid 12
PSOE 10-11
Vox 4
UP 0-3

Barcelona city
BComú 10
PSC 9-10
Trias per Barcelona (Junts) 8-9
ERC 6
PP 4
Vox 3

Valencia city
PP 13-14
Compromís 8
PSOE 7-8
Vox 4

Sevilla city
PP 13-14
PSOE 13
Vox 3
Con Andalucía (UP+MP) 1-2

Zaragoza city
PP 14
PSOE 10-11
Vox 4
Podemos 1-2
Zaragoza en Común 0-2

More details at RTVE site:
https://www.rtve.es/noticias/20230528/sondeo-elecciones-autonomicas-2023-28m/2447601.shtml
https://www.rtve.es/noticias/20230528/sondeo-elecciones-municipales-2023-28m/2447584.shtml

Official results site for Local elections: https://resultados.locales2023.es/
RTVE results site: https://resultados-elecciones.rtve.es/municipales/2023/
El País results site: https://elpais.com/espana/elecciones/municipales/
ABC results site: https://www.abc.es/elecciones/municipales/resultados/

[Velasco]

Also I have an entirely opposite opinion on the Chira-Soria project. It's a project that will bring a ton of renewable energy (iircy like 30% of the island's consumption?). Yes, I believe there are some (tbh, fairly minor and petty) environmental concerns, but I will easily take those over delaying the energy transition and the fight against climate change. Ironically a fear I had with him was not being commited enough to the project lol

Finally for whatever reason I had a soft-spot for UxGC during the entire campaign. I didn't seriously consider them for any election level, but for some reason I really enjoyed their campaign. Kind of hoping they do well (as in, get representation and possibly some influence wherever there are right-wing governments).

I am all for tenewables and energy transition, but I think the ecológical impact in the Ayagaures badin and the very viabikity of the project ate not minor concerns. Still,  I have not a closed opinion. On the other hand I try to have an informed opinion on issues like this, but I'm lacking the technical knowledge neccessary to say I'm totally in favour or against. The truth is that we have an extreme dependency on fossil fuels and we need to solve this.  The discussion is on the strategies to reach the ultimate goal

As for the UxGC folks, besides they are a PP splinter, I think they the kind of rightwing populists telling the people they're neither right nor left. I "enjoyed" a rally of the local candidate in the park jusy below home and honestly... Anyway they serm to me less toxic than Vox and they will steal some councilors to the PP, so...

[Mike88]

Waiting for the results.............

[Astatine]

spaniards do surely lovely a big pp 🥵🥵

[MRCVzla]

More GAD3/Gizaker (for Euskadi/Navarra) polls for local elections:
Vitoria-Gasteiz
EH Bildu 7
PNV 7
PSE-EE 6-7
PP 5-6
Elkarrekin (UP) 1-2

Bilbao
PNV 13-14
EH Bildu 5
PSE-EE 5
PP 3
Elkarrekin (UP) 2-3

Donostia/San Sebastián
PNV 9-10
EH Bildu 8-9
PSE-EE 5
PP 2
Elkarrekin (UP) 2-3

Pamplona
UPN 7-8
EH Bildu 7-8
PSN 4
PP 3
Geroa Bai 2-3
Contigo/Zurekin (UP) 1-2

Lleida
PSC 8
ERC 6
Junts 5
PP 4
Vox 2
CUP 1
En Comú 1

Girona
Junts 9
PSC 8
ERC 4
Guanyem (CUP) 4
PP 2

Tarragona
PSC 10
ERC 6
PP 5
Vox 3
Junts 2-3
En Comú Podem 0-1

Almería
PP 14
PSOE 7
Vox 4
UP 2

Cadíz (leftist incumbent not standing)
PP 11-12
PSOE 6-7
Adelante 6
Vox 2
Podemos 1

Córdoba
PP 14
PSOE 7
Vox 4
Hacemos Córdoba (UP) 4

Granada
PP 12-13
PSOE 9
Vox 4
Granada Unida (Adelante) 1
UP 0-1

Huelva
PP 12
PSOE 11-12
Vox 2-3
UP 1

Jaén
PP 12
PSOE 10-11
Jaén Merece Más (Adelante) 2-3
Vox 2

Jérez de la Frontera
PP 13-14
PSOE 8-9
Vox 2-3
IU-Ganar Jerez 2
Podemos 0-1

Málaga
PP 16
PSOE 10
UP 3
Vox 2

Alicante
PP 13-14
PSOE 8
Vox 4
Compromís 2-3
UP 1

Castellón
PP 10-11
PSOE 9-10
Vox 4
Compromís 3

Main 7 Galicia cities (GAD3 for Forta/Sondaxe for La Voz de Galicia)
A Coruña
PP 11 / 10
PSOE 10 / 10
BNG 4 / 4
Marea Atlántica 2 / 2
Por Coruña (UP) 0 / 1

Ferrol
PP 13 / 14
PSOE 7 / 7
BNG 3 / 2
Ferrol en Común 2 / 2

Lugo
PP 12-13 / 12
PSOE 7-8 / 7
BNG 5 / 6

Ourense
PP 9-10 / 9
PSOE 7-8 / 8
Democracia Ourensana 6 / 6
BNG 4 / 4

Pontevedra
PP 10-11 / 11
BNG 10-11 / 10
PSOE 4 / 4

Santiago de Compostela
PP 9-10 / 10
BNG 7 / 5
PSOE 6 / 7
Compostela Aberta / 3

Vigo (or better said, Abeland)
PSOE 19-20 / 19
PP 5 / 5
BNG 2-3 / 2
Marea de Vigo 0 / 1

[Mike88]

PP also leads, according to GAD3, in all 8 provincial capitals of Andalusia.

Vigo
PSOE 19-20 / 19
PP 5 / 5
BNG 2-3 / 2
Marea de Vigo 0 / 1

Christmas arrived 2 months early for Caballero. It normally starts in August.

[MRCVzla]

Canary Islands closed the polls just minutes ago, GAD3 poll released with a likely turn:
PSOE 23-25
CC 18-19
PP 15-16
NC 3-4
ASG (Curbelo, La Gomera localist) 3
VOX 2
UP 2
AHI (El Hierro localists) 1

Local elections actual count starts, currently at 13% reported, mostly in rural areas around Galicia, Asturias, Euskadi, Extremadura, Murcia or Andalucia, tiny counts in major cities:
29.3% PSOE
25.9% PP
5.9%   Vox
5.1%   EH Bildu
5.0%   PNV