California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

👀

https://twitter.com/secupp/status/1708464810763919811

Press X to doubt.  Media wishcasting does not make it so.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

👀

https://twitter.com/secupp/status/1708464810763919811

Press X to doubt.  Media wishcasting does not make it so.

Also reminder that this is The Daily Mail.

[Zedonathin2020]

👀

https://twitter.com/secupp/status/1708464810763919811

Press X to doubt.  Media wishcasting does not make it so.

Also reminder that this is The Daily Mail.

What IS the daily mail? Some tabloid piece or the British answer to Fox News?

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/secupp/status/1708464810763919811

Press X to doubt.  Media wishcasting does not make it so.

Also reminder that this is The Daily Mail.

What IS the daily mail? Some tabloid piece or the British answer to Fox News?

A British tabloid with a notorious right-wing bias. I would say it's more equivalent to the New York Post.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

https://twitter.com/secupp/status/1708464810763919811

Press X to doubt.  Media wishcasting does not make it so.

Also reminder that this is The Daily Mail.

What IS the daily mail? Some tabloid piece or the British answer to Fox News?

A British tabloid with a notorious right-wing bias. I would say it's more equivalent to the New York Post.

Really more like the NY Post crossed with the National Enquirer. The Post's journalism is usually biased but less based around blatant speculation and gossip-mongering.

[Burke Bro]

Peak Atlas is that people are unironically speculating about Harris. Also the Vice-President is a member of the Senate as its President, so it would be a clear downgrade and probably leave Biden without the VP and Senate tiebreaker for the rest of his term.

There’s strategic value to Harris filling the vacancy. Newsom gets to keep his promise of appointing a black woman. Biden gets to replace Harris with someone like Whitmer who could be of strategic importance in 2024 and is a far more suitable successor.

[Aurelius2]

https://twitter.com/secupp/status/1708464810763919811

Press X to doubt.  Media wishcasting does not make it so.

Also reminder that this is The Daily Mail.

What IS the daily mail? Some tabloid piece or the British answer to Fox News?

A British tabloid with a notorious right-wing bias. I would say it's more equivalent to the New York Post.

Really more like the NY Post crossed with the National Enquirer. The Post's journalism is usually biased but less based around blatant speculation and gossip-mongering.

Yeah, the Post is definitely a tabloid, with all that entails, but comparing it to the Daily Mail is a grave insult to the Post. The British gutter press is really something else.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

If we’re going for an out of the box zaney pick I vote for Larry Agran. He’s still in Irvine politics.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Also fun fact; Feinstein’s two predecessors are alive, John Seymour and Pete Wilson

[Zedonathin2020]

I guess Lee literally bullied her way into a seat.

https://twitter.com/andrewdesiderio/status/1708600537367621936?s=46&t=XC6qQa...


At least we aren’t getting Senator Schiff

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I guess Lee literally bullied her way into a seat.

https://twitter.com/andrewdesiderio/status/1708600537367621936?s=46&t=XC6qQa...


At least we aren’t getting Senator Schiff

It's Markel

[Sestak]

Slight chance that Weber would have wanted the openness to run but that statement makes it sound like either the appointee is Cohen and she’s running or that it’s Lee. Either way a positive outcome for Newsom, though goes against what he just said a few weeks back.

[Beet]

I think it's awful how the state party basically picks its senators and then tries to force everyone to support them and it basically works because California is such a big state no one can afford to or has the political base to run a statewide election without the support of the head honchos. That is how they foisted Kamala into the state, who clearly had no intention of staying there from day 1. I hope next year has a truly competitive election but I doubt it.

[MargieCat]

If it is Lee, I wonder if Schiff or Porter drop out.

With Dave Min having legal troubles from his DUI, and no real frontrunner down there, maybe Porter suspends her campaign, endorses Lee, and runs for re-election in her swing district.

Schiff could do the same or continue to run against Lee.

It's possible that they turn their attention to 2026 statewide elections, like the open Governors mansion or AG (should Bonta decide to run for Governor).

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I guess Lee literally bullied her way into a seat.

https://twitter.com/andrewdesiderio/status/1708600537367621936?s=46&t=XC6qQa...


At least we aren’t getting Senator Schiff

Wasn’t this always true? Like, there’s nothing legally stopping the appointee from running for the full term regardless of what she tells Newsom.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I guess Lee literally bullied her way into a seat.

https://twitter.com/andrewdesiderio/status/1708600537367621936?s=46&t=XC6qQa...


At least we aren’t getting Senator Schiff

No? If anything this works again Lee. Weber, for instance, had said she doesn’t want a seat with a time limit on it. This could entice some of Lee’s supporters to break ranks and accept an appointment. Before there was no reason for someone to leave their current position and burn their political bridges. Now, you could have, say Bass or Cohen, be appointed and Lee’s supporters would be put in a bind of how to approach this new wrench in the system.

As I said before, a limited appointment, not appointing a candidate, and appointing a black woman was a paradox of Newsom’s own making. He had to break one of his promises, and he chose the smartest one.

[2016]

The Democratic Congressional Black Caucus has already urged Newsom to pick Lee so yes I think it will be her.

[Aurelius2]

I think it's awful how the state party basically picks its senators and then tries to force everyone to support them and it basically works because California is such a big state no one can afford to or has the political base to run a statewide election without the support of the head honchos. That is how they foisted Kamala into the state, who clearly had no intention of staying there from day 1. I hope next year has a truly competitive election but I doubt it.

California is a party-state where Newsom calls the shots. Genuinely competitive elections at the state level simply do not happen. I expect this to continue if Kounalakis succeeds Newsom as Governor.

[Minnesota Mike]

If it is Lee, I wonder if Schiff or Porter drop out.

With Dave Min having legal troubles from his DUI, and no real frontrunner down there, maybe Porter suspends her campaign, endorses Lee, and runs for re-election in her swing district.

Schiff could do the same or continue to run against Lee.

It's possible that they turn their attention to 2026 statewide elections, like the open Governors mansion or AG (should Bonta decide to run for Governor).

Why would they? IMHO Shiff & Porter are still likely to finish 1/2 in the primary even against Senator Lee.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

If it is Lee, I wonder if Schiff or Porter drop out.

With Dave Min having legal troubles from his DUI, and no real frontrunner down there, maybe Porter suspends her campaign, endorses Lee, and runs for re-election in her swing district.

Schiff could do the same or continue to run against Lee.

It's possible that they turn their attention to 2026 statewide elections, like the open Governors mansion or AG (should Bonta decide to run for Governor).

Why would they? IMHO Shiff & Porter are still likely to finish 1/2 in the primary even against Senator Lee.

Yeah, I don't know what Porter's path would be - she has the fewest endorsements and least institutional support of the three - but Lee getting the seat this way would be such an unprecedented tactic that I wouldn't be shocked to see her be greeted by dozens of in-unison endorsements of Schiff for the election.

[Del Tachi]

I've gone ahead and written a rough draft of a statement for Gavin Newsom that he can feel free to use:

"A few years ago, I pledged that, if tasked with the duty to make another appointment to one of California's U.S. Senate seats, I would name an African-American woman to the seat. At the time, it was clear to me that this was an absolute necessity. The ascendence of then-Senator Kamala Harris to the Vice Presidency had left the United States Senate without representation for Black women, something that I and many others found, and still find, unacceptable.

Fortunately, since I made that pledge nearly two and a half years ago, recent developments in U.S. Senate races in states like Delaware, Maryland, and potentially more to come have made it a near certainty that it will be the voters who will rectify this problem. I'm also cognizant of the fact that, for what is now the second time I can remember, a Black woman is a major, viable candidate for the U.S. Senate right here at home in our own upcoming election. I hope all Californians will join me in celebrating this incredible milestone.

I'm also cognizant of the fact that the first round of voting in our upcoming U.S. Senate election is far too close for comfort - less than half a year away - for me to unduly influence the democratic process by giving a candidate in that election an unfair advantage with an appointment to the seat.

That is why I'm incredibly pleased to share that former U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer has agreed to briefly come out of retirement to serve out the remainder of the late, great Senator Feinstein's term. Senator Boxer and Senator Feinstein long enjoyed a strong working relationship and friendship. She will return to the Senate with seniority, and there is nobody better to manage the transition from Senator Feinstein to our new Senator who will be elected next year, while also serving Californians ably and with distinction, than her."

Why would Lee’s supporters care about who gets a senate seat in Maryland or Delaware?  LOL

There is no smart political maneuvering Newsom can do to weasel out of this.   He said he would pick a Black woman, and every qualified Black woman he could appoint has pretty much lined up behind Lee.  If he follows through on his promise and appoints a Black woman only as a caretaker, he will be seen as pandering (which he, of course, was with his hypothetical commitment back in 2021.)

If these are the political instincts of one of the Democrats’ most potent rising stars, then I’m a pretty happy camper.  Why can’t Democrats just be normal and give the usual non-committals to hypotheticals of who gets appointed to a seat that isn’t even vacant?  If Newsom is committed to picking a Black woman, but he isn’t willing to appoint the one Black woman supported by the CBC and the Black CA establishment then who was his commitment even for? 

[Minnesota Mike]

Yeah, I don't know what Porter's path would be - she has the fewest endorsements and least institutional support of the three - but Lee getting the seat this way would be such an unprecedented tactic that I wouldn't be shocked to see her be greeted by dozens of in-unison endorsements of Schiff for the election.

Same path as it has always been. I just don't see an appointed senator consolidating support at this point of the race.

[Minnesota Mike]

Interesting factoid, with there being two elections for all practical purposes fundraising limits will double. A donor can give their preferred candidate the max for both the Special and the General. More money for a campaign that will already be expensive.

[brucejoel99]

I guess Lee literally bullied her way into a seat.

https://twitter.com/andrewdesiderio/status/1708600537367621936

At least we aren’t getting Senator Schiff

No? If anything this works again Lee. Weber, for instance, had said she doesn’t want a seat with a time limit on it. This could entice some of Lee’s supporters to break ranks and accept an appointment. Before there was no reason for someone to leave their current position and burn their political bridges. Now, you could have, say Bass or Cohen, be appointed and Lee’s supporters would be put in a bind of how to approach this new wrench in the system.

As I said before, a limited appointment, not appointing a candidate, and appointing a black woman was a paradox of Newsom’s own making. He had to break one of his promises, and he chose the smartest one.

Weber's one of the potential picks who fielded concerns to Newsom that he should pick Lee per WaPo, & Bass is fully behind Lee, as is Cohen. I honestly think - as DT speculates - that no Black woman public official he offered the appointment to was willing to go against Lee & take it. Now, with the CBC very explicitly behind her too, incl. one Jim Clyburn, & Gavin clearly having his eyes set on '28...

[Sol]

Hopefully Lee is the appointee. Regardless of identity politics finagling, she'd immediately become one of the best members of the upper body upon entering the Senate, and would hopefully give her an advantage in dismissing her crummy challengers next year.