California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[Sestak]

Yeah, Weiner is a much more realistic choice for the San Francisco House seat than the Senate.

[Sestak]

 This is going to be the biggest race in California in decades.

[Sestak]

Katie Porter has released two polls.
One is a primary poll among “non Republicans” which has her at 30, Schiff 29, Lee 9, Khanna 6.

The other is a head-to-head among all voters which has her handily beating Schiff, with the help of large advantage among Republicans, with over a third of voters undecided.

The primary and general are among the same electorate, so the polling is definitely deceptive, though it’s fairly obvious why she chose to do this.

[Sestak]

Somewhat surprised she’s running, but makes things a lot more exciting. She of course has my full support.

[Sestak]

Schiff is probably screwed if it ends up as Dem vs Dem in November right? Seems like Republicans hate him so much they’d hold their nose and vote for Porter. Maybe for Lee too, but keep in mind that she is black.

Dem vs Dem with two Southern California Dems seems highly unlikely to me; seeing as the state establishment will almost certainly oppose both.

[Sestak]

Schiff is probably screwed if it ends up as Dem vs Dem in November right? Seems like Republicans hate him so much they’d hold their nose and vote for Porter. Maybe for Lee too, but keep in mind that she is black.

Dem vs Dem with two Southern California Dems seems highly unlikely to me; seeing as the state establishment will almost certainly oppose both.

I’m not so sure. Four years ago definitely, but the center of power in the Democratic Party is currently an open question. Los Angeles pols have seen a lot of high profile wins, like with Padilla, and Weber

Both of those two were handpicked by Gavin Newsom and are loyal to him. The shift is that Newsom has taken his faction statewide, which allows for politicians from outside the Bay to be elevated but also further cements his own loyalists as the center of the state establishment. This does not bode well for either Porter or Schiff as neither fall in that group. The latter especially has no place in Newsom's California Democratic Party.

[Sestak]

With Lee all but certain to run, Khanna still a real possibility, and even Feinstein potentially not retiring by choice, we really shouldn't dismiss the possibility that two Republicans with non-negligible geographic bases (think McClintock, Garcia, Valadao, Issa, Faulconer, etc) lock Democrats out of the general election.

Newsom & the legislature should strongly consider implementing RCV for the primary.

The chances of them doing that are negligible, I think. For one, it further reduces Newsom’s ability to get someone close to him (or at least someone he approves of) elected to that seat. The fact that this seat is facing a contested election is something he already likely sees as a blunder; in his ideal world Feinstein would have vacated the seat mid-term for him to make an anointment. To throw the election to even further potential chaos and upset with RCV is likely the exact opposite of what he wants.

In terms of preventing a massive split, the state party will probably simply rely on the exorbitant cost of running a statewide campaign; the (small and large) Democratic donor base will likely be unable to sustain more than two competitive ones. For instance, if Schiff and Porter are both to rely on small donors I find it hard to believe both will be able to continue adequate fundraising for the next fifteen months; their likely donor bases overlap heavily.

[Sestak]

Barbara Lee will be younger in 2030 than Joe Biden will be in 2028. I’d better hear all of you who are complaining calling for his replacement on the ticket as well…

[Sestak]

Barbara Lee will be younger in 2030 than Joe Biden will be in 2028. I’d better hear all of you who are complaining calling for his replacement on the ticket as well…

Joe Biden is the *incumbent* President. Barbara Lee is potentially running for an *open* seat. The same logic with Biden opponents in 2020 still stands in 2024 with Lee: Why elect a septuagenarian when we can elect someone younger with pretty much the same views?

Yes, this is the same dumb logic that most Democrats have, thankfully, left in 2019. Joe Biden has proven to be both a far better candidate and, almost certainly, a far better President than nearly all the available “[someones] younger with pretty much the same views”.

[Sestak]

FEINSTEIN OUT

https://twitter.com/SenFeinstein/status/1625568264402132992

It's Barbin Time

[Sestak]

And now the entire California establishment machine comes down for Schiff.

They already did, the House Democratic delegation (including Pelosi now that DiFi’s going bye bye) has already endorsed him.

The House Democratic delegation is not the state level establishment, though.  The list of House Democrats endorsing Schiff doesn't really include many members who are close to Newsom (it also, notably, is missing most of the Hispanic members from LA). The DC establishment clearly has chosen Schiff; the state establishment has thus far not shown its hand.

[Sestak]

I seriously don't care tbh...Newsom surely can find someone that he can appoint temporarily for 1 1/2 year.

Don't know if Newsom would do that, though. Having every major position in the state filled by someone who owes their job to him is his dream outcome. Since he has already said he'd appoint a black woman to this seat, quite possible he'd elevate Lee, who would then be running for reelection.

[Sestak]

My tentative guess is that Cohen or Weber are most likely out of the list posted above.

[Sestak]

Slight chance that Weber would have wanted the openness to run but that statement makes it sound like either the appointee is Cohen and she’s running or that it’s Lee. Either way a positive outcome for Newsom, though goes against what he just said a few weeks back.

[Sestak]

If Newsom is committed to picking a Black woman, but he isn’t willing to appoint the one Black woman supported by the CBC and the Black CA establishment then who was his commitment even for? 

For what it’s worth, I think if this had all happened in April, Newsom would have just appointed Lee without question - it’s perfectly beneficial for him to do so. His more recent statements seem to be a result of being close enough to the election that he thought he would anger people if he didn’t say anything of the sort.

[Sestak]

If he appoints Lee, it'll be the equivalent of urinating on California voters feet with both middle fingers raised high in the air.

Yes, but this is not new for Newsom; the man has spent the last five years ensuring there would never be a real electoral choice between multiple Democrats in any statewide race.

It'll also be an exceptionally pathetic and pointless display of weakness. 

This I have to disagree with. If Lee is appointed and wins it still means Newsom gets a fellow ex-Willie Brown lackey in the seat as opposed to one of two House members from LA who have no reason to be beholden to him. Is it embarrassing after his previous statement? Yeah, of course. Is it a political loss? No.

[Sestak]

Incredible content, thank you Gavin.

[Sestak]

This, by the way, should be a reminder of how quickly Twitter can spiral its reactions to something minor. The statements were never a clear indication of anything until posters (both for and against Lee) decided it meant Lee was being appointed and started to form takes around this supposition.

[Sestak]

This, by the way, should be a reminder of how quickly Twitter can spiral its reactions to something minor. The statements were never a clear indication of anything until posters (both for and against Lee) decided it meant Lee was being appointed and started to form takes around this supposition.

Newsom's comms director did approvingly retweet a Cori Bush thread calling for a Lee appointment, that was pretty bait-&-switchy

He retweeted a later post in a thread that didn’t include a mention of Lee herself.

But in any case, this should reinforce for everyone: tweets aren’t news. Trying to read the tea leaves on the Site Formerly Known as Twitter and jumping to conclusions will get you burned sooner or later.