California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[Sol]

Honestly, I don't care about Lee's age at all here. Even if she only serves one term, it'd be worth it to see her elected to the Senate. She's been an icon to the left for decades and would be amazing even for just one 6-year Senate run.

I'm 100% in on team Lee at this point. Maybe even considering throwing a job app in.

Gross.  It’s bad enough having that nutcase in the House; hopefully she loses the primary and the country can finally be rid of her.

Imagine thinking the only person who called the Afghanistan War for what it ended up being "a nutcase" FYI Soylent Green is made of people.

This. Plus it’d give the left six years to come up with a good candidate in 2030 (Scott Wiener)?

Thankfully, Scott Wiener is going nowhere. Replacing Lee with him would be a major downgrade. I would bet though that she has something worked out with Khanna, given how he is being deferential af to her. And even if he's in Congress by then, Scott will be a lightweight compared to someone like Khanna. Not sure where this leaves the gov race tho

If California Republicans were smart they would throw their support to a moderate dem although I have no idea who that would be.

But the CA GOP will just run several candidates with no shot of making the top 2

It's Adam Schiff, setting up the CAGOP for a real Sophie's Choice of a general election if its Schiff v Porter or Schiff v Lee, as I expect it will be.

Imagine thinking going to war with Al-Qaeda and its Taliban protectors right after 9/11 was the wrong decision.  With all due respect, it is simply a deranged position that doesn’t come close to passing the laugh test.

It was an utter catastrophe lol

[Sol]

I'm actually really curious to see how Latinos and Asians achieve more political power in NorCal moving forward. A bunch of white, unremarkable Dems are sitting on v diverse seats in the house that will be very competitive when they open up (and tbh would be for a brave progressive of color now): Swalwell, Lofgren, Thompson, Garamendi, and DeSaulnier all come to mind--although the latter two probably have the progressive street cred to quash a challenge. Garamendi has gotta either retire or die soon tho he has been in California politics forever.

In the state legislature, where term limits ensure turnover, you do see this process taking place. Interstate 880, along which the largest part of the Bay Area's Asian population lives, is represented in the Assembly from south to north by Evan Low, Ash Kalra, Alex Lee, Liz Ortega, and Mia Bonta. The Senate delegation is a lot whiter, but it's still a big difference from the way things were when I got into politics fifteen years ago. I think that that'll filter up as people do retire.

As someone who grew up and lives in a mixed Indian/Chinese community, the ethnic breakdown of Asian officeholders is interesting to me. The most nationally prominent Asian politician from the Bay Area is Indian, of course, but aside from Khanna there aren't a lot of notable names that are Indian. (I suppose there's a chance that someday Rishi Kumar's congressional campaigns accomplish something other than providing volunteer experience for local teens looking to burnish their college applications, but I'm not counting on it.) Local government tends to have a lot more Chinese than Indian officeholders. In any case, as of yet neither community of recent immigrants is meaningfully politically organized. (The old Cantonese community of San Francisco is a different story.) If a strong Chinese or Indian political network were to develop, it would have serious consequences in the Bay Area.

Tbh I think this may be why the CA redistricting commission did such odd and ugly lines in the South Bay. When I drew California for my redistricting project (shameless plug for my redistricting project, please tell me how I screwed up), it was really striking the sheer number of districts in the Bay Area which are very diverse and plurality Asian or Latino on total population, but then are plurality white on CVAP, often by a decent amount. If you care about protecting the VRA and expanding minority representation, it begins to feel a little frustrating, but you can't really up those numbers without drawing outright awful districts, as the commission chose to do in the South Bay.

[Sol]

In case DiFi resigns in the coming weeks or months: With the campaign de facto ongoing already and high-profile candidates in, it seems reasonable to assume Newsom would appoint a placeholder who's not running for a full term in 2024? Who could that be?

I don't know, based on what Xahar and other have said this seems unlike Newsom. More likely he picks Lee with the idea of giving her the advantage in the primary so that then he'll be owed something.

[Sol]

It's interesting--I wonder if Porter would be in a much better place in this race if the third candidate was a Bay Area machine candidate without the leftist bonafides which Lee has. If you're a died-in-the-wool progressive or socialist it's hard to beat Lee's record; I suspect Porter would be getting a lot more buzz from the leftwing online.

At the state convention this weekend Porter had almost no support I counted litterally 3 volunteers the entire weekend. Lee and Schiff had several competing events and Lees had more people slightly in each one. This highlights the major problem for Porter. She has no institutional support. All the progressive party officials are behind Lee as well as most of the African American leadership. And Schiff pretty much has all the establishment and moderate support behind him. I talked with one of Porters volunteers at the convention and his argument for Porter was pretty weak and rooted in ageism about Lee, he kept implying she was only capable of serving one term.

Correct me if I'm wrong but does institutional support really matter that much in California? In a state that big wouldn't money/name recognition (often same thing) matter more and doesn't Porter have both?

My understanding is that, at least according to CA people, it cuts the other way--the state is so big and demanding politically that the only people with enough resources are the leaders of political machines.

Of course, there hasn't really been a big and well-funded campaign by a non-establishment statewide Democrat (to my knowledge), so both Schiff and Porter are interesting test cases in this respect.

[Sol]

Hopefully Lee is the appointee. Regardless of identity politics finagling, she'd immediately become one of the best members of the upper body upon entering the Senate, and would hopefully give her an advantage in dismissing her crummy challengers next year.