SCOTUS overturns Roe megathread (pg 53 - confirmed)

[patzer]

My personal opinion is that, while I am on the fence from a personal standpoint, a ban is not the answer for the following reasons:
1. A ban will not stop abortions, only bring them to less safe means
2. When Life Begins is not a settled moral question, and people can be of different belief systems in that regard

A ban won't stop everyone, but it will certainly save some lives; not everyone will go to the effort of lawbreaking in this regard. Even if only 10 percent of babies whose mothers try to kill them are saved by a law like this, that would still be a massive number of lives saved and absolutely worth it.

As for the second point, the science is pretty clear on it. You don't base laws on the fact that some people disagree, else you'd never get anywhere.

[Person Man]

My personal opinion is that, while I am on the fence from a personal standpoint, a ban is not the answer for the following reasons:
1. A ban will not stop abortions, only bring them to less safe means
2. When Life Begins is not a settled moral question, and people can be of different belief systems in that regard

A ban won't stop everyone, but it will certainly save some lives; not everyone will go to the effort of lawbreaking in this regard. Even if only 10 percent of babies whose mothers try to kill them are saved by a law like this, that would still be a massive number of lives saved and absolutely worth it.

As for the second point, the science is pretty clear on it. You don't base laws on the fact that some people disagree, else you'd never get anywhere.

No one disputes the science but science alone doesn’t mean anything. Basing laws 100% on science has historically tragic results. There’s a difference between studying and teaching evolution and trying to derive a system of morals from studying it.

[Hermit For Peace]

So the vote to keep abortion legal was a winner in the elections. Nobody wants to have their freedoms taken away from them, whether it's the right to have an abortion, a right to own a gun or whatever. Any politician who wants to criminalize or restrict access to abortion is an automatic loser in the general scheme of things. The majority of people don't vote for losers.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

How much hope do activists have in legalizing abortion through referendum in red states? Can they overturn DeWine's heartbeat law and end the bans in Missouri and Arkansas?

[Hope For A New Era]

How much hope do activists have in legalizing abortion through referendum in red states? Can they overturn DeWine's heartbeat law and end the bans in Missouri and Arkansas?

It's possible. Missouri in particular has a history of liberal results in ballot measures - 67% against right-to-work and 62% for $12 minimum wage in 2018.

It would be wise for the activists to not aim for the Michigan measure, though. I think a 15-week ban similar to what was done in Florida would pass at least in Missouri and Ohio. Arkansas might have to be a little stricter. But I'm pretty confident that total bans do not have majority support in any state.


Other states that allow citizen initiatives: Idaho, Utah, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Oklahoma.

[Skill and Chance]

How much hope do activists have in legalizing abortion through referendum in red states? Can they overturn DeWine's heartbeat law and end the bans in Missouri and Arkansas?

It's possible. Missouri in particular has a history of liberal results in ballot measures - 67% against right-to-work and 62% for $12 minimum wage in 2018.

It would be wise for the activists to not aim for the Michigan measure, though. I think a 15-week ban similar to what was done in Florida would pass at least in Missouri and Ohio. Arkansas might have to be a little stricter. But I'm pretty confident that total bans do not have majority support in any state.


Other states that allow citizen initiatives: Idaho, Utah, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Oklahoma.

Arizona technically has a total ban from the 19th century that is in legal limbo because it conflicts with a more recent 15 week law.  There's no way the older law would survive an initiative there, and even the Michigan language may very well pass. 

I think the Dakotas would repeal their bans, and Nebraska would block one, but IDK if something as strong as the Michigan measure would pass.  Oklahoma and Arkansas are iffy and I would normally expect significant restrictions to be popular there, but since the status quo in both states is a no-exceptions total ban, it could get interesting.

Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming initiatives are only statutes that can then be repealed/edited by the legislature.  The legislatures are all near unanimous R.

[Hope For A New Era]

Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming initiatives are only statutes that can then be repealed/edited by the legislature.  The legislatures are all near unanimous R.

True, but it would be extremely unpopular to do so.

Also, the extreme-R-ness of those legislatures has a lot to do with geography. It doesn't represent the state, and in fact drawing fair state legislative maps is extremely difficult bordering on impossible.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ribunchreports/status/1592581823837573120

Judge McBurney was appointed by former Gov. Nathan Deal (R).  He's also the judge overseeing the Fulton County special grand jury investigating interference in the 2020 election.

[MarkD]

https://twitter.com/ribunchreports/status/1592581823837573120

Judge McBurney was appointed by former Gov. Nathan Deal (R).  He's also the judge overseeing the Fulton County special grand jury investigating interference in the 2020 election.

So which constitution does the Georgia abortion law violate: the US Constitution or the GA state constitution?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

https://twitter.com/ribunchreports/status/1592581823837573120

Judge McBurney was appointed by former Gov. Nathan Deal (R).  He's also the judge overseeing the Fulton County special grand jury investigating interference in the 2020 election.

So which constitution does the Georgia abortion law violate: the US Constitution or the GA state constitution?

Apparently he struck it down because Roe was still in place when it was signed (in 2019) and they’d have to re-pass a similar law again post-Dobbs.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

https://twitter.com/ribunchreports/status/1592581823837573120

Judge McBurney was appointed by former Gov. Nathan Deal (R).  He's also the judge overseeing the Fulton County special grand jury investigating interference in the 2020 election.

So which constitution does the Georgia abortion law violate: the US Constitution or the GA state constitution?

Apparently he struck it down because Roe was still in place when it was signed (in 2019) and they’d have to re-pass a similar law again post-Dobbs.

Serious question- why does a county judge have the authority to strike down a state law?  If that's the case, couldn't any state law just be referred to a county judge in a county you know is likely to be sympathetic to your cause?

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/ribunchreports/status/1592581823837573120

Judge McBurney was appointed by former Gov. Nathan Deal (R).  He's also the judge overseeing the Fulton County special grand jury investigating interference in the 2020 election.

So which constitution does the Georgia abortion law violate: the US Constitution or the GA state constitution?

Apparently he struck it down because Roe was still in place when it was signed (in 2019) and they’d have to re-pass a similar law again post-Dobbs.

Serious question- why does a county judge have the authority to strike down a state law?  If that's the case, couldn't any state law just be referred to a county judge in a county you know is likely to be sympathetic to your cause?

Likely for whatever the same reason circuit judges have the authority to strike down federal laws

[politicallefty]

I hope no one on the left thinks the abortion debate is close to over. This is only just the beginning. To use a WWII analogy, we're still in 1939.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ribunchreports/status/1592581823837573120
Judge McBurney was appointed by former Gov. Nathan Deal (R).  He's also the judge overseeing the Fulton County special grand jury investigating interference in the 2020 election.

So which constitution does the Georgia abortion law violate: the US Constitution or the GA state constitution?

Apparently he struck it down because Roe was still in place when it was signed (in 2019) and they’d have to re-pass a similar law again post-Dobbs.

Serious question- why does a county judge have the authority to strike down a state law?  If that's the case, couldn't any state law just be referred to a county judge in a county you know is likely to be sympathetic to your cause?

Superior Court Judge *is* a state office; note that he was initially appointed by Governor Deal to fill a vacancy, although he was later reelected in his own right.  They're assigned to different circuits, and he's assigned to the Fulton County Circuit.

[Hermit For Peace]

I hope no one on the left thinks the abortion debate is close to over. This is only just the beginning. To use a WWII analogy, we're still in 1939.

Not only is it not over but it hasn't even really begun. Both sides are talking past each other and never the twain shall meet for years and years to come. For one reason, it's because the church has a big influence on people's lives and it's hard to go against their influence. I've had plenty of arguments and discussions with these types and all they do is get all emotional and talk about "killing babies." They can't get past that point.

So there is no discussion going on, only emotionalism.

[John Dule]

36 down, 14 to go!

[afleitch]

https://mobile.twitter.com/JessicaValenti/status/1592640415374901249

Is it a fertility cult?

https://mobile.twitter.com/JessicaValenti/status/1592641416169422848

Or a death cult?

[Person Man]

What’s the deal in Nebraska? Will the new senate be conservative enough to pass anything?

[politicallefty]

What’s the deal in Nebraska? Will the new senate be conservative enough to pass anything?

Even if something does, it would almost surely be subject to a veto referendum. If something like that was on the ballot in the 2024 general election, NE-02 probably wouldn't be a pretty sight for Republicans.

[Person Man]

What’s the deal in Nebraska? Will the new senate be conservative enough to pass anything?

Even if something does, it would almost surely be subject to a veto referendum. If something like that was on the ballot in the 2024 general election, NE-02 probably wouldn't be a pretty sight for Republicans.

Maybe they could get a relatively moderate quickening law passed that makes abortion a crime after 12/13 weeks with relatively broad exceptions or 15 weeks. That would be a relatively close referendum. It would still probably lose in a GE year, though.

[Hope For A New Era]

What’s the deal in Nebraska? Will the new senate be conservative enough to pass anything?

They're one vote short of being able to break a filibuster, so as long as the Democrats are totally unified, no. There is one Democrat representing a Trump+30something seat, but she's termed out in 2024, so there's no reason for her to cross over for the sake of reelection.

Even if they did have a filibuster-proof majority, there are enough R moderates that a total ban is likely close to impossible. 15 or 12 weeks might be doable, but not anything more.

The question is whether a filibuster-proof majority can be averted in 2024, assuming that seat reverts back to R. It looks like there will be an open seat that includes part of Lincoln, so it should be possible. The seat that includes Bellevue is also competitive, but presumably the incumbent there will be running for reelection.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Republicans, with their supermajorities in the SC legislature, failed to pass any law restricting abortion. There are not enough Republicans who want to ban abortion from conception, but in 2023 the issue will be considered again and these subversive lawmakers posing as doctors will be held accountable and put on record for 2024, which at the moment is looking like a very possible blue wave.

21 weeks is the current cutoff in South Carolina.

[Hermit For Peace]

Whoopi says that it's so hard, so, so hard.

https://twitter.com/TheView/status/1521518187774308352

[ProgressiveModerate]

What’s the deal in Nebraska? Will the new senate be conservative enough to pass anything?

They're one vote short of being able to break a filibuster, so as long as the Democrats are totally unified, no. There is one Democrat representing a Trump+30something seat, but she's termed out in 2024, so there's no reason for her to cross over for the sake of reelection.

Even if they did have a filibuster-proof majority, there are enough R moderates that a total ban is likely close to impossible. 15 or 12 weeks might be doable, but not anything more.

The question is whether a filibuster-proof majority can be averted in 2024, assuming that seat reverts back to R. It looks like there will be an open seat that includes part of Lincoln, so it should be possible. The seat that includes Bellevue is also competitive, but presumably the incumbent there will be running for reelection.

From what I understand, there is one pro-life Dem (prolly the one who represents that Trump + 30 district) who has indicated support for abortion restrictions in the past, though how far they're actually willing to go is rlly up in the air, and you'd need all Rs onboard which isn't a guarentee in NE given the nonpartisan structure and a few more "moderate" ones holding down Biden seats in Omahahaha suburbs.

[Person Man]

What’s the deal in Nebraska? Will the new senate be conservative enough to pass anything?

They're one vote short of being able to break a filibuster, so as long as the Democrats are totally unified, no. There is one Democrat representing a Trump+30something seat, but she's termed out in 2024, so there's no reason for her to cross over for the sake of reelection.

Even if they did have a filibuster-proof majority, there are enough R moderates that a total ban is likely close to impossible. 15 or 12 weeks might be doable, but not anything more.

The question is whether a filibuster-proof majority can be averted in 2024, assuming that seat reverts back to R. It looks like there will be an open seat that includes part of Lincoln, so it should be possible. The seat that includes Bellevue is also competitive, but presumably the incumbent there will be running for reelection.

From what I understand, there is one pro-life Dem (prolly the one who represents that Trump + 30 district) who has indicated support for abortion restrictions in the past, though how far they're actually willing to go is rlly up in the air, and you'd need all Rs onboard which isn't a guarentee in NE given the nonpartisan structure and a few more "moderate" ones holding down Biden seats in Omahahaha suburbs.

There are several lines of defense for abortion rights in Nebraska. A law that at least makes most abortions illegal would probably take Bacon and maybe even the first district as collateral damage.