SCOTUS overturns Roe megathread (pg 53 - confirmed)

[Hope For A New Era]

How much hope do activists have in legalizing abortion through referendum in red states? Can they overturn DeWine's heartbeat law and end the bans in Missouri and Arkansas?

It's possible. Missouri in particular has a history of liberal results in ballot measures - 67% against right-to-work and 62% for $12 minimum wage in 2018.

It would be wise for the activists to not aim for the Michigan measure, though. I think a 15-week ban similar to what was done in Florida would pass at least in Missouri and Ohio. Arkansas might have to be a little stricter. But I'm pretty confident that total bans do not have majority support in any state.


Other states that allow citizen initiatives: Idaho, Utah, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Oklahoma.

[Hope For A New Era]

Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming initiatives are only statutes that can then be repealed/edited by the legislature.  The legislatures are all near unanimous R.

True, but it would be extremely unpopular to do so.

Also, the extreme-R-ness of those legislatures has a lot to do with geography. It doesn't represent the state, and in fact drawing fair state legislative maps is extremely difficult bordering on impossible.

[Hope For A New Era]

What’s the deal in Nebraska? Will the new senate be conservative enough to pass anything?

They're one vote short of being able to break a filibuster, so as long as the Democrats are totally unified, no. There is one Democrat representing a Trump+30something seat, but she's termed out in 2024, so there's no reason for her to cross over for the sake of reelection.

Even if they did have a filibuster-proof majority, there are enough R moderates that a total ban is likely close to impossible. 15 or 12 weeks might be doable, but not anything more.

The question is whether a filibuster-proof majority can be averted in 2024, assuming that seat reverts back to R. It looks like there will be an open seat that includes part of Lincoln, so it should be possible. The seat that includes Bellevue is also competitive, but presumably the incumbent there will be running for reelection.