Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

The cardinal difference is that this is Ukrainian soil, so Ukrainians would be markedly less likely to do something like this.
I'm sure there are dams on Russian soil that they, if they occupied the territory they wanted and sought to take the fight to Russia, could attack.

These words sound too much like Russian propaganda patterns. "Yes, we piled a bunch of sh**t under their door, but they didn't the same only because they don't know where we live."

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The cardinal difference is that this is Ukrainian soil, so Ukrainians would be markedly less likely to do something like this.
I'm sure there are dams on Russian soil that they, if they occupied the territory they wanted and sought to take the fight to Russia, could attack.

These words sound too much like Russian propaganda patterns. "Yes, we piled a bunch of sh**t under their door, but they didn't the same only because they don't know where we live."

I think that this might subconsciously be due to me being an American whose nation bombed Iraq in 2003. I don't want to (correctly) look hypocritical by getting on a soapbox and say "it's only bad when Russia does it". Which is a valid criticism of how many in my country think, all things considered.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/iuliiamendel/status/1665945367618224128?s=12
Further proof of why Ukraine didn’t do this

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is worth a watch.
Presumably it's a tell as to how the American security/military establishment sees Russia, if this is what they are putting in military academies.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/faytuks/status/1665905176140554243?s=12
My god those Russian bastards actually blew the dam

Russians claiming it collapsed due to damage. All I gotta say is the timing of this is incredibly suspicious.

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1665936745152561153?s=20

Edit: Now they're claiming Ukraine hit it with rockets? Sure, Jan.

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1665959293927956483?s=20

[Storr]

Another reason why Ukraine wouldn't do this:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1665959896481685507?s=20

3.4 meters from disaster

https://twitter.com/Wolfe321/status/1665922317053202433?s=20

[rc18]

I'm surprised I've managed to beat Woodbury's take, which will quite obviously be that the heartless Ukrainian monsters blew up the dam to murder Russian civilians as revenge or something. This dam blowing up looks like a big deal and at this moment there are plausible cases for both Ukraine and Russia being the culprit to disrupt the other's plans. Either way, its going to be very bad for civilians on both sides of the river. Even if we don't have official word, I think a good indicator that it was actually Ukraine would be the use the floods and chaos to amphibiously cross the Dnieper.

Why would Ukraine flood Kherson city itself and make any counterattack south of Kherson all the more harder? This has Russian ecoterrorism all over it. Not to mention Russia ridiculous explanation for how Ukraine supposedly blew the dam

Regardless of whoever attacked the dam, fact is that dams can be effectively treated as legitimate war targets by either side. That's neither straightforwardly morally wonderful nor completely fair, but such is war.
If Ukraine blew up one of its own dams to try to stop the Russians I don't think I could indict them for alleged "ecoterrorism" either.

This is incorrect; attacking a dam, if doing so imperils a civilian population, is forbidden and potentially a war crime.

https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/customary-ihl/v2/rule42

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

The cardinal difference is that this is Ukrainian soil, so Ukrainians would be markedly less likely to do something like this.
I'm sure there are dams on Russian soil that they, if they occupied the territory they wanted and sought to take the fight to Russia, could attack.

These words sound too much like Russian propaganda patterns. "Yes, we piled a bunch of sh**t under their door, but they didn't the same only because they don't know where we live."

I think that this might subconsciously be due to me being an American whose nation bombed Iraq in 2003. I don't want to (correctly) look hypocritical by getting on a soapbox and say "it's only bad when Russia does it". Which is a valid criticism of how many in my country think, all things considered.

Russian whataboutism about Iraq is completely discredited by the actions of the Ruscists. It's just ridiculous to say that the coalition punishment for Saddam M. Bison fully justifies the suicidal fascism in Russia and the idiotic war to exterminate Russian speakers in Ukraine under the guise of protecting Russian speakers in Ukraine. The Ruscists also justified this war by the number of children accidentally killed in the bombing of Serbia, now the Russians have exceeded this number many times over through the deliberate killing and also kidnapping of children.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm surprised I've managed to beat Woodbury's take, which will quite obviously be that the heartless Ukrainian monsters blew up the dam to murder Russian civilians as revenge or something. This dam blowing up looks like a big deal and at this moment there are plausible cases for both Ukraine and Russia being the culprit to disrupt the other's plans. Either way, its going to be very bad for civilians on both sides of the river. Even if we don't have official word, I think a good indicator that it was actually Ukraine would be the use the floods and chaos to amphibiously cross the Dnieper.

Why would Ukraine flood Kherson city itself and make any counterattack south of Kherson all the more harder? This has Russian ecoterrorism all over it. Not to mention Russia ridiculous explanation for how Ukraine supposedly blew the dam

Regardless of whoever attacked the dam, fact is that dams can be effectively treated as legitimate war targets by either side. That's neither straightforwardly morally wonderful nor completely fair, but such is war.
If Ukraine blew up one of its own dams to try to stop the Russians I don't think I could indict them for alleged "ecoterrorism" either.

This is incorrect; blowing up a damn, if doing so imperrils a civilian population, is a war crime.

https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/customary-ihl/v2/rule42

I'm not willing to allow the idea of what is and isn't a war crime hamper the effective usage of our military in an intervention we actually would need to do. (Iraq 2003 was plainly unnecessary, but Iraq 1991 was a necessary defense of American interests, if one we should have been far clearer to Saddam about beforehand)
As such, I cannot fault the Russians (or the Ukrainians) acting on the same philosophy or something close enough.

[The Mikado]

I'm not willing to allow the idea of what is and isn't a war crime hamper the effective usage of our military in an intervention we actually would need to do.

War crimes laws exist for a reason, and that reason is life was way way worse when all of this kind of stuff was a common part of warfare.

If a Russian commander ordered the dam blown, he should end the war in a dock in The Hague. If a Ukrainian commander ordered the dam blown, he should end the war in a dock in The Hague.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Another reason why Ukraine wouldn't do this:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1665959896481685507?s=20
3.4 meters from disaster

https://twitter.com/Wolfe321/status/1665922317053202433?s=20

Ruscists are actually not interested in measures to save the Zaporizhzhia NPP. Even if the water level never drops below acceptable levels, they can blow up the NPP from the inside and convince everyone around that it happened because of the falling water level. At the same time, they will claim that this is because of Ukrainian missiles, American drones, meteor showers, the curse of Genghis Khan, Vanga's prediction, reptilian flying saucers from Nibiru, and about a thousand other things.

[Storr]

The only major tributary (as in a river) of the Dnipro downstream from the dam:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1665969202337906690?s=20

[GoTfan]

Waiting for Woodbury to tell us this was a Ukranian false flag and a US black op at the same time because West Bad Russia God

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1665985278878597120?s=20

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1665989510323138561?s=20

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I'm surprised I've managed to beat Woodbury's take, which will quite obviously be that the heartless Ukrainian monsters blew up the dam to murder Russian civilians as revenge or something. This dam blowing up looks like a big deal and at this moment there are plausible cases for both Ukraine and Russia being the culprit to disrupt the other's plans. Either way, its going to be very bad for civilians on both sides of the river. Even if we don't have official word, I think a good indicator that it was actually Ukraine would be the use the floods and chaos to amphibiously cross the Dnieper.

Why would Ukraine flood Kherson city itself and make any counterattack south of Kherson all the more harder? This has Russian ecoterrorism all over it. Not to mention Russia ridiculous explanation for how Ukraine supposedly blew the dam

Regardless of whoever attacked the dam, fact is that dams can be effectively treated as legitimate war targets by either side. That's neither straightforwardly morally wonderful nor completely fair, but such is war.
If Ukraine blew up one of its own dams to try to stop the Russians I don't think I could indict them for alleged "ecoterrorism" either.

Except the Ukrainians are planning a counteroffensive in the coming days and the Russians are not.

[Woody]

I don't know who did it, but I am leaning towards Russia. Seems like a strategic play in their part. This morning (Ukrainian time) the Ukrainian garrisons finally withdrew from the islands located in the Dnieper due to the flooding. Crimea already taps other reservoirs for water and before the invasion they usually just shipped it off from Russia.

[jaichind]

I don't know who did it, but I am leaning towards Russia. Seems like a strategic play in their part. This morning (Ukrainian time) the Ukrainian garrisons finally withdrew from the islands located in the Dnieper due to the flooding. Crimea already taps other reservoirs for water and before the invasion they usually just shipped it off from Russia.

There are a bunch of reasons why it might be Russia from a "benefits" point of view.  There are arguments for Ukraine being behind it as well.  They are

1) Reduces fresh water to Crimea which raises the cost of ownership for Russia (just like the 2014-2022 period)
2) Floods Russian fortified defenses
3) If the Ukraine Summer Offensive is stalling or needs to be delayed/canceled then this is a nice distraction from that fact.

In the meantime, Bild went from

Russia blew up a huge dam in Ukraine

to A huge dam exploded in Ukraine



Swiss Tabloid Blick did the same

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

I don't know who did it, but I am leaning towards Russia. Seems like a strategic play in their part. This morning (Ukrainian time) the Ukrainian garrisons finally withdrew from the islands located in the Dnieper due to the flooding. Crimea already taps other reservoirs for water and before the invasion they usually just shipped it off from Russia.

Seriously, you’re not sure have who blew the damn that Russia rigged to blow?

[EastAnglianLefty]

Regardless of who did it (and all the signs point to Russia), it's an odd move at this point. Ukraine shaping operations have done concentrated in Donetsk region, and whilst that might be a misdirection, we can be reasonably certain that an amphibious assault across the Dnieper was not going to be the next act, because that's almost impossible to disguise and incredibly difficult to carry out if it's competently opposed.

I could see the military value to Russia in doing it to cover a retreat if they were retreating entirely from the Kherson region, but I don't see why that would be necessary unless you thought the Ukrainians would be in Melitopol within a week. Maybe that is the ultimate objective of the coming offensive, but even if it is the operation to accomplish that hasn't even begun yet.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I don't know who did it, but I am leaning towards Russia. Seems like a strategic play in their part. This morning (Ukrainian time) the Ukrainian garrisons finally withdrew from the islands located in the Dnieper due to the flooding. Crimea already taps other reservoirs for water and before the invasion they usually just shipped it off from Russia.

There are a bunch of reasons why it might be Russia from a "benefits" point of view.  There are arguments for Ukraine being behind it as well.  They are

1) Reduces fresh water to Crimea which raises the cost of ownership for Russia (just like the 2014-2022 period)
2) Floods Russian fortified defenses
3) If the Ukraine Summer Offensive is stalling or needs to be delayed/canceled then this is a nice distraction from that fact.

The impact this has on the Zaporizhya nuclear power plant could potentially make it non-operational for years to come. This dramatically hurts Ukraine's power grid.

[Logical]

https://twitter.com/Miyhnea/status/1666017539082657792

[jaichind]

One way or another, had Russian forces stayed in Kherson versus pulling out in Nov 2022 and this dam was blown up, it could have been a military disaster for Russia with their forces being cut off North of the Dnieper River.  So regardless of who did it the timing of it was not as bad for Russia.  So in that sense, this is an argument for Russia being behind it

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How many Russian fortified defenses are getting flooded?

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

One way or another, had Russian forces stayed in Kherson versus pulling out in Nov 2022 and this dam was blown up, it could have been a military disaster for Russia with their forces being cut off North of the Dnieper River.  So regardless of who did it the timing of it was not as bad for Russia.  So in that sense, this is an argument for Russia being behind it

The other argument being that Russia mined the dam 6 months ago. It was discussed at the time.
When something blows up, assume it’s the people that rigged it with explosives until proven otherwise.

[Woody]

I don't know who did it, but I am leaning towards Russia. Seems like a strategic play in their part. This morning (Ukrainian time) the Ukrainian garrisons finally withdrew from the islands located in the Dnieper due to the flooding. Crimea already taps other reservoirs for water and before the invasion they usually just shipped it off from Russia.

Seriously, you’re not sure have who blew the damn that Russia rigged to blow?

How would you know 100%? You're just a guy from Illinois. Do you have the Russian and Ukrainian battle plans?