Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

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"Stop The War" has long been a joke group tbf.

The last Labour leader was its chairman...

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Yes, it's amazing how everyone thinks that now...


Anyway, sort of related to the topic. More fun and games from Putin;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60113233
Ireland tells Russia live-fire naval exercise is 'not welcome'

...But the timing and location of have raised eyebrows among some defence pundits.

The area - off the west coast of Europe - is far from any of Russia's permanent naval bases, and is also near several critical transatlantic data cables, which defence experts have warned Russia could pose a risk to.

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It's bread, not cake.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bread_and_salt

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This new stuff feels different; this is about solidifying public opinion within Russia to support an incursion, rather than making external threats. I think you'd only do this if you were actually going to pull the trigger and do something, because Putin would look weak otherwise. Either he's going in or at the very least feels close to a major diplomatic concession that could be sold as a victory.

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Er, so, a delegation of British political figures - including Mick Antoniw (AS for Pontypridd and a member of the Welsh Government), Adam Price (leader of Plaid Cymru), Mick Whelan (General Secretary of ASLEF) and the journalist Paul Mason have turned up in Kiev with the aim of showing solidarity with the people of Ukraine against official government travel advice.

I wasn't sure before, but now I know Ukraine is ****ed.

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I honestly don't understand the Ukrainian strategy at all: they're not well-prepared for a war they have a pretty good idea is coming and has been telegraphed for 3 months, they seem to want this war for their nation's defense to be fought by other state's militaries, been given aid by other countries for their own troops to use but been told repeatedly other country's troops will not enter Ukraine to fight the Russians for them, yet want harsh punitive measures on Russia now that would just help the war that has a marginal chance of not occurring to even more certainly take place since the Russians would have less to lose. This is suicide.

What preparations do you want the the Ukrainian military to make? It is completely outclassed by Russia, there really isn't much in the way of effective defence the Ukrainians could muster against Russian air superiority or their copious amounts of short range ballistic missiles and artillery.

I mean you asked about why they aren't fully mobilizing their military. All that does is advertise juicy targets for Russian shock and awe bombardment. They might as well paint massive "bomb me" signs.

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I honestly don't understand the Ukrainian strategy at all: they're not well-prepared for a war they have a pretty good idea is coming and has been telegraphed for 3 months, they seem to want this war for their nation's defense to be fought by other state's militaries, been given aid by other countries for their own troops to use but been told repeatedly other country's troops will not enter Ukraine to fight the Russians for them, yet want harsh punitive measures on Russia now that would just help the war that has a marginal chance of not occurring to even more certainly take place since the Russians would have less to lose. This is suicide.

What preparations do you want the the Ukrainian military to make? It is completely outclassed by Russia, there really isn't much in the way of effective defence the Ukrainians could muster against Russian air superiority or their copious amounts of short range ballistic missiles and artillery.

Is there any analysis out there expecting a meaningful defense by the Ukrainian military?

You mean like concrete bunkers or at least sandbag barriers? Boarded up windows? Explosive load buildings ready to collapse onto an advancing column? Explosive laden bridges to block an advance? Battalion and company fall back positions? Machine gun nests? An HQ?

None exists.

I mean you asked about why they aren't fully mobilizing their military. All that does is advertise juicy targets for Russian shock and awe bombardment. They might as well paint massive "bomb me" signs.

What are their defensive measures for advancing ground forces?

Zelensky is talking a big game, and it's not being matched by anything on the ground reality at all. He is providing nothing that would cause the Russian military pause and generate significant resistance that would force the Russians to bleed, meaning the Russians can just walk in and declare victory. "Forcing the Russians to bleed if they choose to invade" was the only reason a lot of countries gave Ukraine all this military equipment aid to start with. The Ukrainian defensive structure does struggle with I think I read there were 9 possible invasion routes Russia could choose, and the Ukrainians can't cover all 9. But militarily it appears they're not preparing to the point of in the end it might be that Georgia in 2008 put up a better fight.

Where are you getting this idea that Russia's first act would be to engage in a general ground invasion? That isn't how they work. They have vast batteries of SRBMs that are capable of striking Kiev without ever setting foot on Ukrainian territory. Eastern Ukraine would be levelled before any serious movement of armour. It isn't like the Russians are going to engage in massed tank battles; their greatest advantage is the ability to bomb opponents back into the stone age, they would obliterate Ukrainian positions from well beyond the horizon.

Eastern Ukraine is flat, Afghanistan this is not. There is nowhere to hide, a bunker is just an elaborate "bomb me" sign. Sandbags are meaningless. The Russians can quickly assemble pontoon bridges. I don't expect the Russians to leave enough buildings left standing for the Ukrainians to blow up (nor for that matter are the Russians stupid enough to push a tank column through the streets of a bombed-out city anyway). Machine gun nests? What is the point in that when the Russians have such a massive advantage in artillery? The machine guns will never see who is shooting at them.

"Forcing the Russians to bleed if they choose to invade" was the only reason a lot of countries gave Ukraine all this military equipment aid to start with.

This was just a fig leaf. They know very well that by the time this type of guerrilla warfare campaign would come into its own Ukraine would have long become a smouldering ruin anyway.

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https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1495775697121517570

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Is this even Putin? Some time ago I noticed that he wears his watch on the right arm.

No, that is Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu's arm.

It's interesting because if this is recorded it means Putin wanted stuff like Naryshkin's comment and his response to be broadcast.

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If Vaccinated Russian Bear could contain his giddiness about the invasion of a foreign country, this thread would be much more bearable....

Yeah if Trump had successfully stolen the 2020 election I suppose he would have just given Ukraine to Putin without a fight.

Pretty dumb point tbh. Assuming Putin does invade, of the last three presidents Trump will be the only one under whom Ukraine didn't lose any more territory.

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And another case of "the worst person you know just made a great point".

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1497170134095613955?s=20&t=tUbB4EXR7_C...

100%.
NATO should put troops in the West. It’s not too late. Dare the Russians to fight us.

NATO should land a bunch of planes on Ukrainian airfields, and dare Russia to attack them.

Bush sent a US air force plane to the Georgian capitol during the 2008 Russian invasion, and it helped keep Russia out of Tbilisi.

No chance in hell of that happening with this lot. Too frightened.

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News in the past few minutes that the EU is drawing up plans to freeze assets belonging to Putin and Lavrov (Russian Foreign Minister).

Brussels has been trying to hash out a consensus on their sanctions plan. Yesterday afternoon they agreed not to create any carve-outs for specific EU-Russia import/exports. But the big sticking point was whether Putin himself would be targeted, or whether that would be left as a reserve option.

If there’s now a consensus on this, means we could hear an announcement shortly.

https://twitter.com/Barnes_Joe/status/1497194009038626842?s=20&t=OCsNrVlWTDF...

Can't have the WAGs of Putin's buddies going without their Prada bags.

Europe isn't worth saving.

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Apparently China is Ukraine’s largest investor. Second largest export partner. And largest import partner.


China doesn’t care what happens to Russia or Ukraine. Only their bottom line. Their Bottom line will be hurt if Putin continues his schemes.

And if China openly backs Russia, the Western world will cut off acccess For Chinese businessmen.

Russia and China have become important partners. They committed to a "no limits partnership" long ago. They have similar revanchist interests (Ukraine, Taiwan).

While true, it is interesting how tepid Chinese support has been so far.

They saw the same announcements from Putin as we have, they know he's a bit unhinged. China is never keen on loose cannons dictating its foreign policy.

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Also, my suspicions on Modi's allegiances are basically verified. It's not like its without precedent, the Soviet Indian ties were always there, but this should show to Atlas and American foreign policy analysts that there is more to a country's allegiances than whether they support Xi Jinping or not.

You do realise that Indo-Russian weapons cooperation is implicitly directed to striking (among others) China?

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This is rapidly turning into a geopolitical catastrophe for Russia, perhaps the worst in its history. And for what? Even if they bump off Zelenskyy now there's no way they'll keep their puppet in power.

Surely there must be some in the Kremlin getting twitchy fingers seeing Putin dismantling Russian power far more effectively than any opponent.

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I assume this means the Russians have brought out the thermobarics, this is gonna get real nasty.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498037904496418817?s=20&t=06qxSG-uBQZFA...

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I assume this means the Russians have brought out the thermobarics, this is gonna get real nasty.

People in the replies saying that it’s unlikely to be a thermobaric, but rather a more conventional missile perhaps striking an oil pipeline or refinery.

Yeah I saw, but they seem to be basing that off how small MLRS style thermobarics look, there are larger ones that would look similar to what we see.

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Beyond parody:

https://twitter.com/Den_2042/status/1498674777032114184?s=20&t=dkpCwEqOuYSP1...

Showing a planned attack on Moldova.

Moldova right now.

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There is a deep irony in all of this.

When the Russian economy goes down the toilet I wonder how many people in the Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics will be having a rethink about joining Mother Russia...

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Interesting, would fit with the reported rise in the use of airpower. Could be a risk.

https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1499487368411332612?s=20&t=t6uI4nC72pH...

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https://twitter.com/un_hrc/status/1499696876601462789?s=21
Some familiar voting patterns…

…and some familiar @$$holes in the comments.

What is the practical effect of this?

Square root of feck all.

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If the Babushkas wanna fight then Putin should send them in.

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The West is doomed #956743

https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1500190063552077833?s=20&t=NRcEAdSf...

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At this point I reckon the West should demand Russia stops arming Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1500835678229250050?s=20&t=_fHRJFXgpid7...

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It seems significant that the UK MoD is admitting any soldiers have gone AWOL to fight in Ukraine.

They have to. If the Russians found them and discovered they are serving UK military then that is a pretext for war.

The government has to make clear serving military in a combat zone are not there under orders.