Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Based:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1664354952960004096?s=20

Klemens von Metternich called.
Other statesmen did as well.
Never were they so happy.
Indeed, they were.
Guess why?
Something to do with Russia, that's why.
Believing that Putin's Russia undermines peace in Europe, they agree.
Even if they find us in the modern day strange.
Really strange.
"Get on with the program" they said, approving of the EU...

[Hindsight was 2020]

Denazification in action:

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1664079800917536776?s=20

Well, Red Velvet wants us to remember that all countries have their differences, and shunning a nation for killing children is wrong because Iraq/Imperialism.

Nations should strive to be more like the true moral compass of Brazil, famous for its lack of income and housing inequality and refusal to elect far-right virulent homophobes to high offices.

Poverty and Inequality have nothing to do with morals and this notion really says more about you and most people in here who agree with this tbh.

If anything, inequality is a consequence of the dynamics from colonial white supremacy. The white elites that benefit from this necessarily come from Europe and every place where white people exist, racism necessarily will too because we’re born into a racist system that inevitably makes us racists just by growing in it. Which makes anti-racism being about learning to grow above the environment we’re in. This is basic stuff people like me learned in school.

The difference between Brazil and the West is that the discussion about racism in Europe is basically non-existent and conveniently put aside under the rug, convincing themselves this isn’t a problem for them because they don’t talk about it. We all saw the treatment Vini Jr. got in Europe while still victim-blamed for the racist attacks on him and it’s not just him, it’s a recurring event.

While USA has the discussions but has too much of its identity stuck in the notions of “free speech” that it allows/validates these white supremacists to get away with everything. On this specific matter, Brazil is indeed way more advanced than most places. Which isn’t to say things are perfect because they never are anywhere.

Mentioning this because you’re bringing up the “Brazil being the moral compass” comment from a different thread, which was about approach to and legislation on racism and homophobia.

Derailing this thread into crass race reductionism is a new low.

You really don’t want to enter a class-based analysis of global divisions because the picture is even less friendly than a racial analysis. The Global South IS the working class of geopolitics.

The only narrative the West has is the one about liberal democracy and that has already been compromised by a wide mix of reasons:

A) Rise of far-right authoritarians compromising the credibility of unquestionable guarantors of democratic global order.

B) Lack of interest about more engagement with democratic South nations while relationship with dictatorship are maintained depending on how strategic they’re perceived.

C) Holding of a fake moral superiority over poorer countries that they don’t even follow themselves or hold for richer countries. Lots of “warnings” on how China is evil and dangerous because ~not democratic~ and yet business between US-China is absurdly high!

What exactly is the “dream” that you offer nowadays? Because in XX century people associated the West with more opportunity but it’s increasingly clear nowadays that “opportunity” depends on who you are and where you come from.

Attempts to be part of the “Western” alliance were made by multiple places with no success, because the exact point of it is to keep the same limited club that concentrates power between only a few.

The growing impression is that it doesn’t really matter what the ideology is, the North will always try to find an excuse to alienate and exclude the South regardless of what their government is. And that happens because it’s precisely the growth of more places to share power with instead that is threatening, NOT the government ideologies themselves. And the skin color of most people on these places are a big part of this instinctive fear, yeah.

It’s just an unwinnable situation for you because of the drawn circumstances. The emergence of the collective South is just inevitable for multiple reasons so it’s pointless to try to hold to past century notions under hopes of a new Cold War that pushes a bipolar logic instead of a multipolar one. At most it can be postponed, but not stopped because it’s billions of people with increasing access to mediums of communication and who want to participate and have a voice.

How much do you think the Russo-Ukrainian War has sped up this process that you speak of?

A lot, because many people see the excessive western concern and pressure about Ukraine related to the fact it’s an European country.

And it triggers anger on a more instinctive level about how others places don’t get this treatment when they aren’t as White European.

It’s like, people know Russia is wrong for invading but they don’t have much sympathy for Ukraine or the West either. It’s like being tired of having to always care about Europe in an one-sided way.

But besides this emotional aspect, there’s also pragmatism in knowing that as non-western places, by endorsing Russian economic punishment they would be validating precedents that could be used against them depending of the mood of western powers.

Which is where the newfound energy about stuff like stimulating South relations and finding a way to neutralize the US dollar comes from. Stuff like BRICS was practically forgotten during Trump but you see it way way more popular like I’ve never seen before these days after the start of Ukraine War.

And it’s not because of Russian articulation at all. I think sending aid to Ukraine would’ve produced much less of a negative backlash from the South than the sanctions tbh. News like freezing Russian reserves and possibly just giving it to Ukraine scared a lot of people about their own money being stolen like that and is IMO what mainly energized the thinking it’s extremely necessary to drop the dollar as a matter of national security.

It’s the bloodiest armed conflict on the European continent since WW2 and an active genocide is involved as well

Edit
Also my god if they set precedent for the sanctions then other countries won’t be able to invade other countries to steal their land! The horror

[Storr]

Alexander Kazakov: "Let's say, what if Washington stops financing Kyiv. That's it, the war is over! Because they're financing everything!" [Blatantly false, but whatever.]

Ivan Trushkin: "Is it within our power?"

Viktor Olevich: "It's within our fantasies."

...

Viktor Olevich: "You'd have to be suicidal to start a full-on confrontation with the West under these conditions."

Alexander Kazakov: "First of all there is more to the world than the West. It's only one fifth of the world and not even half of the global economy!

Viktor Olevich: "Unfortunately, compared to our economy and compared to our military capabilities, they surpass us."

Alexander Kazakov: "Viktor don't lie to the viewers!" [He goes on to give a lame excuse that the way "they" count the Russian economy is why it doesn't match that of the West.]

Viktor Olevich: "We can't even take one Ukrainian town in 15 months."

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1664440784890867713?s=20

[Storr]

Based:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1664354952960004096?s=20

Klemens von Metternich called.
Other statesmen did as well.
Never were they so happy.
Indeed, they were.
Guess why?
Something to do with Russia, that's why.
Believing that Putin's Russia undermines peace in Europe, they agree.
Even if they find us in the modern day strange.
Really strange.
"Get on with the program" they said, approving of the EU...

I find the whole Poland officially renaming Kaliningrad "Królewiec" saga with humor. In the same vein as the Czechs when they held a twitter based parody independence referendum for "Královec" last fall. Though the Poles don't seem to think it's much of a joke...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Based:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1664354952960004096?s=20

Klemens von Metternich called.
Other statesmen did as well.
Never were they so happy.
Indeed, they were.
Guess why?
Something to do with Russia, that's why.
Believing that Putin's Russia undermines peace in Europe, they agree.
Even if they find us in the modern day strange.
Really strange.
"Get on with the program" they said, approving of the EU...

I find the whole Poland officially renaming Kaliningrad "Królewiec" saga with humor. In the same vein as the Czechs when they held a twitter based parody independence referendum for "Královec" last fall. Though the Poles don't seem to think it's much of a joke...

It does help to look at these sorts of events with some humor.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Russians often call Kaliningrad by its old German name Königsberg. They believe that Germany has a right to this city, but it will be very strange for them if Poland claims this right.

[NOVA Green]

I had previously posited as to why both Republicans and Democrats will continue to unite regarding spending $$$ and provisioning military hardware for Ukraine.

Now that the whole bogus "Debt Ceiling Limit" has passed the US Senate, this is even more patently clear...

Looks like Schumer and McConnell have done a deal to allow military expropriations in order to support certain vital national security interests:

None of the amendments were adopted. But in an effort to alleviate concerns from defense hawks that the debt ceiling bill would restrict Pentagon spending too much, Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) issued a joint statement saying the “debt ceiling deal does nothing to limit the Senate’s ability to appropriate emergency supplemental funds to ensure our military capabilities are sufficient to deter China, Russia, and our other adversaries.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/06/01/senate-debt-ceiling-bill/

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Denazification in action:

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1664079800917536776?s=20

Well, Red Velvet wants us to remember that all countries have their differences, and shunning a nation for killing children is wrong because Iraq/Imperialism.

Nations should strive to be more like the true moral compass of Brazil, famous for its lack of income and housing inequality and refusal to elect far-right virulent homophobes to high offices.

Poverty and Inequality have nothing to do with morals and this notion really says more about you and most people in here who agree with this tbh.

If anything, inequality is a consequence of the dynamics from colonial white supremacy. The white elites that benefit from this necessarily come from Europe and every place where white people exist, racism necessarily will too because we’re born into a racist system that inevitably makes us racists just by growing in it. Which makes anti-racism being about learning to grow above the environment we’re in. This is basic stuff people like me learned in school.

The difference between Brazil and the West is that the discussion about racism in Europe is basically non-existent and conveniently put aside under the rug, convincing themselves this isn’t a problem for them because they don’t talk about it. We all saw the treatment Vini Jr. got in Europe while still victim-blamed for the racist attacks on him and it’s not just him, it’s a recurring event.

While USA has the discussions but has too much of its identity stuck in the notions of “free speech” that it allows/validates these white supremacists to get away with everything. On this specific matter, Brazil is indeed way more advanced than most places. Which isn’t to say things are perfect because they never are anywhere.

Mentioning this because you’re bringing up the “Brazil being the moral compass” comment from a different thread, which was about approach to and legislation on racism and homophobia.

Derailing this thread into crass race reductionism is a new low.

You really don’t want to enter a class-based analysis of global divisions because the picture is even less friendly than a racial analysis. The Global South IS the working class of geopolitics.

The only narrative the West has is the one about liberal democracy and that has already been compromised by a wide mix of reasons:

A) Rise of far-right authoritarians compromising the credibility of unquestionable guarantors of democratic global order.

B) Lack of interest about more engagement with democratic South nations while relationship with dictatorship are maintained depending on how strategic they’re perceived.

C) Holding of a fake moral superiority over poorer countries that they don’t even follow themselves or hold for richer countries. Lots of “warnings” on how China is evil and dangerous because ~not democratic~ and yet business between US-China is absurdly high!

What exactly is the “dream” that you offer nowadays? Because in XX century people associated the West with more opportunity but it’s increasingly clear nowadays that “opportunity” depends on who you are and where you come from.

Attempts to be part of the “Western” alliance were made by multiple places with no success, because the exact point of it is to keep the same limited club that concentrates power between only a few.

The growing impression is that it doesn’t really matter what the ideology is, the North will always try to find an excuse to alienate and exclude the South regardless of what their government is. And that happens because it’s precisely the growth of more places to share power with instead that is threatening, NOT the government ideologies themselves. And the skin color of most people on these places are a big part of this instinctive fear, yeah.

It’s just an unwinnable situation for you because of the drawn circumstances. The emergence of the collective South is just inevitable for multiple reasons so it’s pointless to try to hold to past century notions under hopes of a new Cold War that pushes a bipolar logic instead of a multipolar one. At most it can be postponed, but not stopped because it’s billions of people with increasing access to mediums of communication and who want to participate and have a voice.

I Ctrl+F'd "Ukraine" and "Russia" in this post and didn't find anything for either, so I'm just going to respond to the first sentence and think of the rest as an obiter dictum.

My response to the first sentence:

I don't particularly want to enter into either kind of analysis at the moment, but I think you'd be pleasantly surprised by my perspective if you were bringing it up in some other context than making irrelevant excuses for a genocidal war of conquest just because a geopolitical adversary of the United States is doing it.

[Storr]

Alexander Kazakov: "Let's say, what if Washington stops financing Kyiv. That's it, the war is over! Because they're financing everything!" [Blatantly false, but whatever.]

Ivan Trushkin: "Is it within our power?"

Viktor Olevich: "It's within our fantasies."

...

Viktor Olevich: "You'd have to be suicidal to start a full-on confrontation with the West under these conditions."

Alexander Kazakov: "First of all there is more to the world than the West. It's only one fifth of the world and not even half of the global economy!

Viktor Olevich: "Unfortunately, compared to our economy and compared to our military capabilities, they surpass us."

Alexander Kazakov: "Viktor don't lie to the viewers!" [He goes on to give a lame excuse that the way "they" count the Russian economy is why it doesn't match that of the West.]

Viktor Olevich: "We can't even take one Ukrainian town in 15 months."

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1664440784890867713?s=20

I missed what happened after the 15 months quote. If/When the war ends in a complete or major defeat for Russia, "we didn't actually want to take Ukraine" will be one of the prominent Kremlin propaganda messages. Book it:

https://twitter.com/VladaKnowlton/status/1664449117341487104?s=20

[jaichind]

https://www.business-standard.com/politics/our-policy-would-be-similar-rahul-gandhi-on-centre-s-stance-on-ukraine-war-123060200050_1.html

"Our policy would be similar: Rahul Gandhi on Centre's stance on Ukraine war"

Rahul Gandhi is on a USA tour and spent a lot of time attacking Modi and BJP.   But on the Russia-Ukraine war, he did say that the INC position would be the same as BJP and would continue to have close relations with Russia.  It seems in India there is an elite consensus on this topic.

[Lord Halifax]

Russians often call Kaliningrad by its old German name Königsberg. They believe that Germany has a right to this city, but it will be very strange for them if Poland claims this right.

the Germans took the land from the Prussians, a Baltic people who finally disappeared as a separate culture in the early 1700s and more Prussians assimilated into the culturally close Lithuanian people than became German, so the Lithuanians have the best historical claim, but they don't want a big Russian minority. Poland is the best option, a large country where a small Russian minority won't change the demographic balance with a Slavic language where the resident Russians can eventually assimilate.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1664275063103950848?s=12
😗

This story appears to be fake (or, at least, completely unconfirmed) news originating from a private Telegram group. A Moldovan journalist reports:

https://twitter.com/DionisCenusa/status/1664324660392017940

Bear in mind - Ukrainian leadership has little to gain from attacking Transnistria while parts of their own country are occupied. Moldova has plenty of good reasons to avoid reigniting that frozen conflict and little to offer Ukraine to fight on their behalf.

What little they do have, they've seemed reluctant to send anyway (c.f. the MiG-29 saga).

[Pericles]

Russians often call Kaliningrad by its old German name Königsberg. They believe that Germany has a right to this city, but it will be very strange for them if Poland claims this right.

the Germans took the land from the Prussians, a Baltic people who finally disappeared as a separate culture in the early 1700s and more Prussians assimilated into the culturally close Lithuanian people than became German, so the Lithuanians have the best historical claim, but they don't want a big Russian minority. Poland is the best option, a large country where a small Russian minority won't change the demographic balance with a Slavic language where the resident Russians can eventually assimilate.

After a generation or two imo, it becomes more trouble than its worth to put ethnicities into foreign countries. Konigsberg belonged to Germany and it was criminal what was done to it in the 1940s (which in no way excuses the German crimes that provoked it), but it now is Russian and should stay that way.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1664275063103950848?s=12
😗

This story appears to be fake (or, at least, completely unconfirmed) news originating from a private Telegram group. A Moldovan journalist reports:

https://twitter.com/DionisCenusa/status/1664324660392017940

Bear in mind - Ukrainian leadership has little to gain from attacking Transnistria while parts of their own country are occupied. Moldova has plenty of good reasons to avoid reigniting that frozen conflict and little to offer Ukraine to fight on their behalf.

What little they do have, they've seemed reluctant to send anyway (c.f. the MiG-29 saga).

Oh okay then but the journalist in your tweet did get something wrong, Zelensky statement didn’t rule out intervening in Transnistria but they won’t do it without Moldova permission

[Lord Halifax]

Russians often call Kaliningrad by its old German name Königsberg. They believe that Germany has a right to this city, but it will be very strange for them if Poland claims this right.

the Germans took the land from the Prussians, a Baltic people who finally disappeared as a separate culture in the early 1700s and more Prussians assimilated into the culturally close Lithuanian people than became German, so the Lithuanians have the best historical claim, but they don't want a big Russian minority. Poland is the best option, a large country where a small Russian minority won't change the demographic balance with a Slavic language where the resident Russians can eventually assimilate.

After a generation or two imo, it becomes more trouble than its worth to put ethnicities into foreign countries. Konigsberg belonged to Germany and it was criminal what was done to it in the 1940s (which in no way excuses the German crimes that provoked it), but it now is Russian and should stay that way.

having Russian troops and nukes stationed in the Kaliningrad enclave is a security risk for NATO and if there's any chance of getting the territory transferred to Poland it should be welcomed.

it was quit sensible to remove the Germans from Eastern Europe, one of the best results of WW2. Like the Russians the Germans had spread over far too great an area and were blocking legitimate interests of many other nations like Polish access to the Baltic Sea and the Czechs having a natural border with a loyal population. Forcing big and aggressive nations to concentrate their population is different from expelling people from small nations with limited territory, which is why removing the pro-Russian population from Crimea would be a legitimate goal. 

the fewer people identifying as Germans and Russians in this world the better so any assimilation of Germans and Russians into other nations should be welcomed.

[CumbrianLefty]

Russians often call Kaliningrad by its old German name Königsberg. They believe that Germany has a right to this city, but it will be very strange for them if Poland claims this right.

the Germans took the land from the Prussians, a Baltic people who finally disappeared as a separate culture in the early 1700s and more Prussians assimilated into the culturally close Lithuanian people than became German, so the Lithuanians have the best historical claim, but they don't want a big Russian minority. Poland is the best option, a large country where a small Russian minority won't change the demographic balance with a Slavic language where the resident Russians can eventually assimilate.

If this ever happened, quite a few Russians would leave the area voluntarily as well.

[Epaminondas]

I've lived in Lithuania for work. No Lithuanian over the age of 30 wants that land back, and they are very concerned by Russian language dominating everyday life again. Older people remember growing up in the USSR and the tacit ban on using Lithuanian in any official capacity.

The Czechs put up a good prank website: Visit Kralóvec

it was quit sensible to remove the Germans from Eastern Europe, one of the best results of WW2. Like the Russians the Germans had spread over far too great an area and were blocking legitimate interests of many other nations [...]

the fewer people identifying as Germans and Russians in this world the better so any assimilation of Germans and Russians into other nations should be welcomed.

Gross and seriously immature. These were people, not pawns on a Risk board.
Dehumanising is the first step towards fascism. Try replacing German or Russian by Jews, see how it sounds.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There was a Lithuanian population in East Prussia until the end, but they were deported as Germans because they were Lutherans, so any distinction there is very technical. Some of the remaining Old Prussian population will have started to speak German, some will have started to speak Lithuanian, but all ended up as Lutherans and as the ethnic distinction faded there will have been intermarriages upon intermarriages because that's what happens. If you want to find traces of the Old Prussians now, you'll find some in a few unusual German surnames, most of which ends in 'eit' (one that will be familiar to some here will be 'Wowereit'), though the most famous ('Tolkien') ends in 'ien', and that's about it. The main relevance of this to the situation in Ukraine would be that the history of Eastern Europe is very complicated and that ethnic cleansing is very bleak.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

having Russian troops and nukes stationed in the Kaliningrad enclave is a security risk for NATO and if there's any chance of getting the territory transferred to Poland it should be welcomed.

It's not that much more of a risk than having them stationed in mainland Russia, which several NATO states already border, is it? It's certainly not more of a risk than the potential for conflict/insurgency which a Polish-occupied Kaliningrad would generate.

The Czech memes are amusing, but that's the limit for me.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1664322013882728448?s=12
Lol Wagner and the Tiktok army not happy with each other

[Woody]

Russians often call Kaliningrad by its old German name Königsberg. They believe that Germany has a right to this city, but it will be very strange for them if Poland claims this right.

wtf? literally who? I've been there, meet numerous Russians whenever and wherever. Not once have I ever heard someone utter Konigsberg.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1664618004070449152?s=20

https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/1664602995844161536?s=20

https://twitter.com/GlasnostGone/status/1664611698374762500?s=20

[Storr]

An image of a fed up looking cat sheltering from yesterday's missile attack in a Kyiv Metro station has gone viral:

https://twitter.com/Nidi7562/status/1664649981200941056?s=20

https://twitter.com/Churcheebs/status/1664651306835877890?s=20

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1664275063103950848?s=12
😗

Now this is interesting. It would be nice to finally rid the world of the Russian-occupied territory known as Transnistria once and for all.

Tbf, Copesight said just about the same thing half a year ago, look where we are now.

Tbf, you said you'd leave Atlas for a year two and a half years ago, look where we are now.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1664275063103950848?s=12
😗

Now this is interesting. It would be nice to finally rid the world of the Russian-occupied territory known as Transnistria once and for all.

If Moldova removes the Transnistrian cancer, they could join NATO. A country can't join NATO if they any territorial disputes.

The problem is it would be very difficult to resolve that issue without open armed conflict with russia, at which point seeking admission to Nato is too late.