Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

I'm taking all this with a grain of salt.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1665704273064382465?s=20

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1665763143795224577?s=20

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1665774821668528135?s=20

[Badger]

There’s going to be a civil war in russia if they fail to take Kharkov at Minimum in the next two years.

Then there will be a civil war...the odds of them being able to take the rest of Donetsk Oblast are slim but Kharkiv? Lol.

It's not as fantastical as those that say that they will still end up taking Odesa (Ukraine has a better chance of taking Moscow than the Russians have of taking Odesa), but Kharkiv is a fantasy as well. If they couldn't get it in the opening hours of the war when the ZSU was scrambling, they have no chance now. Hell, they couldn't even put it under siege to start the war!

Underestimate the Russians at your own peril

Overestimate them at your own ignorance

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/status/1665454573593538561?s=12

source: my ass

That is the source of most of your posting history, yes.

[Virginiá]

Retired RAAF fighter jets could be sent to Ukraine

https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/retired-raaf-fighter-jets-could-be-sent-to-ukraine-20230605-p5de0h

Australia, the US and Ukraine are discussing sending 41 Royal Australian Air Force F/A-18 Hornets to Kyiv helping fulfil part of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s request for fighter jets, rather than sending them to the scrapheap as planned.

Sources have told The Australian Financial Review that the US, which recently gave permission to other Western allies to supply Ukraine with advanced fighter jets, including US-made F-16s, is favourably disposed to the idea of gifting Ukraine the F/A-18s.

The retired F/A-18s are sitting in a hangar at the Williamtown RAAF base outside Newcastle and unless sent to Ukraine, will either be scrapped or sold to a private sector aviation company, RAVN Aerospace, to use in the US as “enemies” for military aviators to train against

Robert Potter, an Australian security expert advising the Ukrainian government, confirmed negotiations were underway, but a specific deal is yet to be finalised.

A separate source close to the discussions agreed it made no sense to destroy perfectly good aircraft that he said could be operational within four months and used to help repel the Russian invasion.

While a handful of planes would only be good for cannibalising parts, the vast bulk would take little work to be brought up to flying condition and have a couple of years left on their airframes. The Australian Hornets are in good shape because they didn’t operate at sea.

[NOVA Green]

I'm taking all this with a grain of salt.



https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1665763143795224577?s=20

Apparently Russian Mil-Bloggers are also reporting that Leopard tanks were involved in the Battle of Novodonetsk:

Pro-Russian bloggers noted that a strong Ukrainian attack had begun Monday morning near the town of Velyka Novosilka, in Donetsk. Mikhail Zvinchuk, a pro-Russian blogger who writes under the pseudonym Rybar, described intense fighting as Ukrainian soldiers in German-made Leopard tanks seized control of the village of Novodonetske on Monday evening, a possible sign that Kyiv had pushed its NATO-trained forces into the battle.

He said the battles were being contested “under heavy artillery fire.”

Aleksandr Khodakovsky, the commander of a Russian proxy group, also described seeing Leopard tanks during the fighting near Novodonetske, where, he said, Ukrainian forces had “felt out our weak spots.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/05/world/europe/ukraine-war-counteroffensive-russia.html

[Badger]

Ummm..... (The propagandists know what they're saying, this isn't some mistranslation.)

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1665235585324154883?s=20

Every living thing needs to be destroyed in that region she says. I would love for her to stop saying that in the safety of a Moscow TV studio and let a crowd of ukrainians who we're tortured, raped, or had their children kidnapped to Russia lay their hands on her for just 30 seconds.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1665876153838743552?s=12
Não seja um amante russo como Red Velvet. Seja um herói como esse cara. Glória à Ucrânia

[NOVA Green]

Looks like a Dam just blew up in Ukraine, just in time for the 78th Anniversary of D-Day, and Russians are allegedly worried about a potential Ukrainian Offense from across the River...

https://twitter.com/CasualArtyFan/status/1665882882412363777?s=20

[NOVA Green]

I'm taking all this with a grain of salt.



https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1665763143795224577?s=20

Apparently Russian Mil-Bloggers are also reporting that Leopard tanks were involved in the Battle of Novodonetsk:

Pro-Russian bloggers noted that a strong Ukrainian attack had begun Monday morning near the town of Velyka Novosilka, in Donetsk. Mikhail Zvinchuk, a pro-Russian blogger who writes under the pseudonym Rybar, described intense fighting as Ukrainian soldiers in German-made Leopard tanks seized control of the village of Novodonetske on Monday evening, a possible sign that Kyiv had pushed its NATO-trained forces into the battle.

He said the battles were being contested “under heavy artillery fire.”

Aleksandr Khodakovsky, the commander of a Russian proxy group, also described seeing Leopard tanks during the fighting near Novodonetske, where, he said, Ukrainian forces had “felt out our weak spots.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/05/world/europe/ukraine-war-counteroffensive-russia.html

Benjamin and Rob Lee look like there might be reason to doubt Russian Mil-Blogger sources:

https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1665771976189779968?s=20

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Ummm..... (The propagandists know what they're saying, this isn't some mistranslation.)

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1665235585324154883?s=20

She said "Единственное, что приходит в голову, это уничтожить всё живое в Харьковской области к чёртвой матери, чтоб неповадно было". I.e. "The only thing that comes to mind is to destroy all life in the Kharkiv region to hell, just as a lesson". So that translation was correct.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Looks like a Dam just blew up in Ukraine, just in time for the 78th Anniversary of D-Day, and Russians are allegedly worried about a potential Ukrainian Offense from across the River...

https://twitter.com/CasualArtyFan/status/1665882882412363777?s=20

The Russians were going to do this last year to flood Kherson when this city was liberated by the ZSU. The only thing I don't understand about this case is why they took so long. Based on this precedent, it can be assumed that they will also blow up the Zaporizhzhia NPP, but also in a year.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/faytuks/status/1665905176140554243?s=12
My god those Russian bastards actually blew the dam

[NOVA Green]

Take it with a couple shakers of salt considering the source is apparently: "My A$$", according to a certain little Woody Woodpecker who shall remain anonymous to protect the innocent.

Apparently your "Hind-Nass" has retweeted an article from Ukrainian sources regarding estimated Russian casualty counts in Bakhmut:

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1665896876418166784?s=20

Here is a link to the source which Phil referenced:

https://english.nv.ua/nation/russia-lost-over-seven-times-as-many-soldiers-as-ukraine-in-bakhmut-says-nsdc-secretary-danilov-50329446.html

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/faytuks/status/1665905176140554243?s=12
My god those Russian bastards actually blew the dam

Wow, the Russians are just that stupid.

They are flooding the eastern Kherson region that they currently control and cutting off water to Crimea.

[Dereich]

I'm surprised I've managed to beat Woodbury's take, which will quite obviously be that the heartless Ukrainian monsters blew up the dam to murder Russian civilians as revenge or something. This dam blowing up looks like a big deal and at this moment there are plausible cases for both Ukraine and Russia being the culprit to disrupt the other's plans. Either way, its going to be very bad for civilians on both sides of the river. Even if we don't have official word, I think a good indicator that it was actually Ukraine would be the use the floods and chaos to amphibiously cross the Dnieper.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

https://twitter.com/faytuks/status/1665905176140554243?s=12
My god those Russian bastards actually blew the dam

Total humanitarian catastrophe. Absolutely evil act that hurts everyone for no benefit.

https://twitter.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1665913664413528064

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

https://twitter.com/faytuks/status/1665905176140554243?s=12
My god those Russian bastards actually blew the dam

Wow, the Russians are just that stupid.

They are flooding the eastern Kherson region that they currently control and cutting off water to Crimea.

Initially, the plan was to flood the southern regions of Kherson along with the Ukrainian military who had come there, as well as to prevent the pursuit of the Russian military who had retreated across the river. After so much time, this plan lost its meaning, so these Russians are completely non-humanoid for me, I stopped understanding them.

[Dereich]

Hmmm....

https://twitter.com/evanhill/status/1665915785707921408?s=20

[Hindsight was 2020]

I'm surprised I've managed to beat Woodbury's take, which will quite obviously be that the heartless Ukrainian monsters blew up the dam to murder Russian civilians as revenge or something. This dam blowing up looks like a big deal and at this moment there are plausible cases for both Ukraine and Russia being the culprit to disrupt the other's plans. Either way, its going to be very bad for civilians on both sides of the river. Even if we don't have official word, I think a good indicator that it was actually Ukraine would be the use the floods and chaos to amphibiously cross the Dnieper.

Why would Ukraine flood Kherson city itself and make any counterattack south of Kherson all the more harder? This has Russian ecoterrorism all over it. Not to mention Russia ridiculous explanation for how Ukraine supposedly blew the dam

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here is a link to the source which Phil referenced:

I just woke up from a nap and was briefly unsure what you meant by Phil. Lol.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I was thinking a bit about this action and the 1938 Yellow River flood came to mind.
It was deliberately started by the KMT in an effort to slow the Japanese advances in China.

[NOVA Green]

Hmmm....

https://twitter.com/evanhill/status/1665915785707921408?s=20

Well TBF, Russia generally has a pretty poor record of routine facility maintenance and operations let alone Occupational Categories which tend to have higher rates of OTJ injuries and deaths.

The rise of the Russian Oligarchs and Kleptocracy has significantly increased Russian Male mortality rates, not just the obvious ones of death by suicide, alcohol, and auto accidents, but also among industrial workers within the energy production facilities, factories, and even the agricultural sector.

The morally bankrupt and corrupt Russian establishment has also effectively dismantled what were generally solid worker health and safety programs under the Soviet era.

Regardless if the stories are correct that the Dam "Blew Up" or "Overflowed" at peak reservoir levels after all sorts of ice melting off, reality is that this may well impact how both the Russian and Ukrainian forces adjust, in what is rapidly becoming from "shaping" to "probing", to now slicing off a few small cuts of meat, while testing the reaction and probing elsewhere across the giant over-extended, weakly-defended, and overall demoralized Russian front and secondary lines of trenches.

Will Russia's "Maginot Lines" successfully defend against Ukrainian Counter-Offensive?

We shall see, but it is still patently clear with the imminent arrival of Western Fighter Jets to Ukraine, carefully shaped to arrive AFTER the Ukrainian Counter-Offensive, it is obvious that NATO is trying to send a direct message to Russia to negotiate sooner rather than later.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm surprised I've managed to beat Woodbury's take, which will quite obviously be that the heartless Ukrainian monsters blew up the dam to murder Russian civilians as revenge or something. This dam blowing up looks like a big deal and at this moment there are plausible cases for both Ukraine and Russia being the culprit to disrupt the other's plans. Either way, its going to be very bad for civilians on both sides of the river. Even if we don't have official word, I think a good indicator that it was actually Ukraine would be the use the floods and chaos to amphibiously cross the Dnieper.

Why would Ukraine flood Kherson city itself and make any counterattack south of Kherson all the more harder? This has Russian ecoterrorism all over it. Not to mention Russia ridiculous explanation for how Ukraine supposedly blew the dam

Regardless of whoever attacked the dam, fact is that dams can be effectively treated as legitimate war targets by either side. That's neither straightforwardly morally wonderful nor completely fair, but such is war.
If Ukraine blew up one of its own dams to try to stop the Russians I don't think I could indict them for alleged "ecoterrorism" either.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

I'm surprised I've managed to beat Woodbury's take, which will quite obviously be that the heartless Ukrainian monsters blew up the dam to murder Russian civilians as revenge or something. This dam blowing up looks like a big deal and at this moment there are plausible cases for both Ukraine and Russia being the culprit to disrupt the other's plans. Either way, its going to be very bad for civilians on both sides of the river. Even if we don't have official word, I think a good indicator that it was actually Ukraine would be the use the floods and chaos to amphibiously cross the Dnieper.

Why would Ukraine flood Kherson city itself and make any counterattack south of Kherson all the more harder? This has Russian ecoterrorism all over it. Not to mention Russia ridiculous explanation for how Ukraine supposedly blew the dam

Regardless of whoever attacked the dam, fact is that dams can be effectively treated as legitimate war targets by either side. That's neither straightforwardly morally wonderful nor completely fair, but such is war.
If Ukraine blew up one of its own dams to try to stop the Russians I don't think I could indict them for alleged "ecoterrorism" either.

I can't remember exactly where or how, but in 2022 on the Voice of America news, I saw that the Ukrainians opened one dam to conduct a controlled flood to cut off the Russian military from one village. The village was not damaged, except for a little water in the gardens and the destruction of part of the collective farm land.

Obviously, Ukraine allows such tactics, but not at all on such a catastrophic scale a la Death Star as Russia, which is a cardinal difference.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm surprised I've managed to beat Woodbury's take, which will quite obviously be that the heartless Ukrainian monsters blew up the dam to murder Russian civilians as revenge or something. This dam blowing up looks like a big deal and at this moment there are plausible cases for both Ukraine and Russia being the culprit to disrupt the other's plans. Either way, its going to be very bad for civilians on both sides of the river. Even if we don't have official word, I think a good indicator that it was actually Ukraine would be the use the floods and chaos to amphibiously cross the Dnieper.

Why would Ukraine flood Kherson city itself and make any counterattack south of Kherson all the more harder? This has Russian ecoterrorism all over it. Not to mention Russia ridiculous explanation for how Ukraine supposedly blew the dam

Regardless of whoever attacked the dam, fact is that dams can be effectively treated as legitimate war targets by either side. That's neither straightforwardly morally wonderful nor completely fair, but such is war.
If Ukraine blew up one of its own dams to try to stop the Russians I don't think I could indict them for alleged "ecoterrorism" either.

I can't remember exactly where or how, but in 2022 on the Voice of America news, I saw that the Ukrainians opened one dam to conduct a controlled flood to cut off the Russian military from one village. The village was not damaged, except for a little water in the gardens and the destruction of part of the collective farm land.

Obviously, Ukraine allows such tactics, but not at all on such a catastrophic scale a la Death Star as Russia, which is a cardinal difference.

The cardinal difference is that this is Ukrainian soil, so Ukrainians would be markedly less likely to do something like this.
I'm sure there are dams on Russian soil that they, if they occupied the territory they wanted and sought to take the fight to Russia, could attack.