Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[It’s so Joever]

If Ukraine realistically is going to remotely have a  "win" this war, it isn't going to be a couple dozen tanks. Those small brigades they are getting now are laughable and are going to burn out quick and have no effect on the war.

It needs full commitment from the West with establishing more air power, which takes a very long time - several modern western fighter jets, anti-air...

..and most importantly: Long range missiles - and I am talking about those that can go for several thousand kilometers, which is going to have to be used to strike bases, facilities and infrastructure deep into Western Russia (which NATO will never go along with, as that is reaching escalation territory).

All of the above is going to require full NATO/Western initiative burning through their arsenals along with other ground equipment, and complete carte blanche to use their weapons on wherever they please. Even through all this, it's not even sure they would return to pre-2022 borders.

I'm not an IR scholar, but I think there's reason to worry that the West is stuck between a rock and a bad place here.  Too much involvement and Russia will perceive our actions as a more critical threat if not justification to declare war.  Too little and we are ignoring the numerous atrocities occurring in regions occupied by Russia.  A brokered peace convention where both sides concede on some points is probably the quickest way to at least temporarily end the violence - let's say Russia gets to keep Crimea, a demilitarized zone is set up near the border, and Ukraine joins NATO.  But I feel a lot of people really want this war to continue.  This is not only costing billions but also taking 100,000+ lives.  What's the motivation for continuing to prop up this war?  Ukraine is not going to win on its own, like you said, and the last thing we need is a WW3-like conflict where boots are on the ground and Russia, already having gone rogue for the past year, declares war with the NATO alliance.

Well you are right about one thing in your post, I’ll give you that .

The truth is, if we allow Russia to win this war we set such a dangerous precedent and signal to literally every medium sized country they need to build nukes. It is long term more dangerous to humanity to allow Russia to win and trigger multiple nuclear weapon programs in previously compliant countries than to take the small risk increased engagement will “lead to WW3”. Something I think nobody wants to mention is that Russia is devoting a huge amount of their resources to just Ukraine, the west is basically lifting a single finger, I mean you can talk big sums of money all you want but those are still minuscule parts of the US budget. If Russia truly is willing to engage a war with the West over Ukraine, that is their own demise (and yes the world if a nuclear launch genuinely manages to not be put down by someone in chain of command)

[HillGoose]

From Daily Mail

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11827765/Are-sanctions-REALLY-wrecking-life-Russia-British-supermarkets-ration-eggs-vegetables.html

"Are sanctions REALLY wrecking life in Russia? As British supermarkets ration eggs and vegetables - thanks in part to Putin's war in Ukraine - shelves in a provincial Russian city are groaning under piles of fresh food, writes SUE REID"

commie propaganda

[NOVA Green]

70% of this 800-page thread is just the two pro-Russia posters talking to each other via Tweet embeds from pro-Russia accounts.

It does seem that in recent weeks the total number of individual posters posting has decreased significantly as well as the total quantity of posts.

I must confess I have been posting significantly less here over the past month or two, but that is mostly because as the grinding winter war has set in there is simply less news to cite, especially that which adds new or added content.

I suspect that once the much vaunted Ukrainian "Spring Offensive" manifests there will be more to post about.

Although there are also musings about a supposed Russian "Spring Offensive", one must certainly wonder how feasible that is considering they have already shot a chunk of their load in strategically questionable offensives over the past couple months, with no new "general mobilization" in sight, severely depleted in terms of tanks and armored vehicles, etc...

[RFK 2024]

(Snip)

Can you explain to me how a truce would lead to an arms race?  I can see how it would look bad giving Russia any concessions after they blatantly violated international law, but does that outweigh the massive cost of human life or the threat of a global war? 

[Hindsight was 2020]

70% of this 800-page thread is just the two pro-Russia posters talking to each other via Tweet embeds from pro-Russia accounts.

It does seem that in recent weeks the total number of individual posters posting has decreased significantly as well as the total quantity of posts.

I must confess I have been posting significantly less here over the past month or two, but that is mostly because as the grinding winter war has set in there is simply less news to cite, especially that which adds new or added content.

I suspect that once the much vaunted Ukrainian "Spring Offensive" manifests there will be more to post about.

Although there are also musings about a supposed Russian "Spring Offensive", one must certainly wonder how feasible that is considering they have already shot a chunk of their load in strategically questionable offensives over the past couple months, with no new "general mobilization" in sight, severely depleted in terms of tanks and armored vehicles, etc...

Yeah but part of the issue is a lot of battles in Bakmut and Vuhledar but they haven’t had any real development. So until the spring offensives kick in it’s going to probably be dominated by the doofus duo

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile the mystery of the curious explosions of Nord Stream pipelines last year continues:

German authorities investigating blasts that tore through the Nord Stream natural-gas pipelines last year have identified a boat manned by a six-member crew that they say could have been involved in a sabotage operation, according to a senior government official.

A summary report on the probe compiled for senior German officials said the vessel, a sport sailing boat, was rented in northern Germany days before the blasts by the six people, some of whom presented Ukrainian passports as identification, the official said.

The boat docked in the port of Wiek on the German island of Rügen and on the Danish island of Christianso, close to the blast sites, according to the official, who saw the report.

The German report said investigators found no evidence the crew had planted the explosives that severely damaged the pipelines. They said the scale of the operation possibly meant more than six people would have been involved.

According to the report, the blasts were carried out using a total of up to about 500 kilograms of explosives. Investigators initially believed the substance used was TNT because of residues initially found at the explosion site. Some investigators now think these traces may have come from contact with unexploded World War II ordnance that litters the sea bed in the area, the official said.

German federal prosecutors said Wednesday that investigators had searched a vessel in connection with the Nord Stream blasts between Jan. 18 and 20. They said they suspected the boat had been used to transport explosives but said investigators hadn’t identified those involved in the attack.

The German investigators believe that more than one team could have been involved, according to the summary. This is because it would have been difficult for six people on one boat to have planted all the explosives that damaged three Nord Stream pipes. While the rented yacht was capable of carrying the necessary amount of explosives, it would be difficult—though not impossible—for a small crew to place them on all the sites quickly using only basic equipment, the investigators concluded.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/nord-stream-blast-probe-in-germany-centers-on-sail-boat-crew-70380645?mod=hp_lead_pos9

Not sure the provenance of this Twitter source but H I Sutton thought it credible considering what he has been hearing thus far.

https://twitter.com/marcfriedrich7/status/1633695325436223488

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

As with every single day, I look at this thread to see 10 new posts from Woodbury about how Bakhmut will fall any day now, along with another 10 posts from Jaichind about how a 0.1% drop in estimated UK GDP growth will have a worse effect on the Ukrainian economy than Herbert Hoover personally destroying the entire US gold reserve.

[ꙮ]

Bakhmut is probably gone by the end of this month, whether or not Ukraine makes the sensible decision to pull back a bit. After that though, I'm not sure where there's movement next. The fronts outside the immediate area of Bakhmut have been pretty static since the Kharkiv offensive and the retreat from Kherson. Russia's essentially running straight into a brick wall at Vuhledar. If they try to make Vuhledar the "next Bakhmut" maybe Ukraine really will get those 7:1 casualty ratios they were hoping for. If Russia insists on wearing themselves down on pointless assaults, I figure Ukraine's best bet is to try to build up their forces and supplies for an offensive in the summer.

[Storr]

What to do when your BMP lights itself on fire:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1633588890580779021?s=20

[Woody]

Avdiivka. Russians have been using a lot of air power here lately, seemingly unmatched. They have started using glide bombs too. I think they have given up directly assaulting the town, they're doing a siege/cauldron of the city, similar to Bakhmut.

https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1632151563278905344
https://twitter.com/elitaultras/status/1634043881699303424

[Woody]

Bakhmut

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1634105292941152256

[Woody]

..After that though, I'm not sure where there's movement next.

Avdiivka, possibly Siversk, and some small clashes in the Kupyansk area.

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1633563171419217920?cxt=HHwWgIDT6ZTDyqstAAAA

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1633301025896497153?s=20

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1633918998633914370?s=20

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1633301025896497153?s=20

Russian state TV: land of the dumb and home of the crazy
But maybe that's the point. It's so dumb, even to the average Russian, it's entertaining.

[jaichind]

The truth is, if we allow Russia to win this war we set such a dangerous precedent and signal to literally every medium sized country they need to build nukes. It is long term more dangerous to humanity to allow Russia to win and trigger multiple nuclear weapon programs in previously compliant countries than to take the small risk increased engagement will “lead to WW3”. Something I think nobody wants to mention is that Russia is devoting a huge amount of their resources to just Ukraine, the west is basically lifting a single finger, I mean you can talk big sums of money all you want but those are still minuscule parts of the US budget. If Russia truly is willing to engage a war with the West over Ukraine, that is their own demise (and yes the world if a nuclear launch genuinely manages to not be put down by someone in chain of command)

But did that not already happen with the 2003 Iraq War? The main lesson of the Iraq War was that Saddam Hussein's main mistake was that he did NOT manage to get chemical and nuclear weapons.  So any lesson war can teach was already taught back in 2003.

[jaichind]

Leaked photo of Pro-Ukraine group that was behind the Nord Stream II sabotage using a yacht

[Woody]

Estonian former officer and veteran of the EDF was killed in Bakhmut. He is the first Estonian to be killed in this war.

Coincidentally the same day one of the commanders of the Right Sector also died in Bakhmut
(March 7th)
https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1634089327763374081
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1634103581082017792

[Cassius]

The truth is, if we allow Russia to win this war we set such a dangerous precedent and signal to literally every medium sized country they need to build nukes. It is long term more dangerous to humanity to allow Russia to win and trigger multiple nuclear weapon programs in previously compliant countries than to take the small risk increased engagement will “lead to WW3”. Something I think nobody wants to mention is that Russia is devoting a huge amount of their resources to just Ukraine, the west is basically lifting a single finger, I mean you can talk big sums of money all you want but those are still minuscule parts of the US budget. If Russia truly is willing to engage a war with the West over Ukraine, that is their own demise (and yes the world if a nuclear launch genuinely manages to not be put down by someone in chain of command)

But did that not already happen with the 2003 Iraq War? The main lesson of the Iraq War was that Saddam Hussein's main mistake was that he did NOT manage to get chemical and nuclear weapons.  So any lesson war can teach was already taught back in 2003.

Or the big example, Gaddafi’s voluntary abandonment of Libya’s nuclear programme in 2003, which earned praise from the Americans at the time but didn’t stop the NATO bombing campaign against him in 2011. In the case of this war, the fact that Russia’s nuclear deterrent has enabled Putin to largely obviate the risk of direct NATO military intervention already stands as a signal to states outside the American system that to have nuclear weapons is better than not to have them.

[Woody]

From a Ukrainian TV channel "Three days of training in Kharkiv, and then turned into assault groups in Bakhmut, what f--king assault groups can that be?"

Meanwhile some users here from a comfy suburb or whatever will be sitting at their chair, sipping their hot chocolate for the night. Demanding that Bakhmut be held at all costs:

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1633759758783066112

[jaichind]

It seems the monument of MiG-17 in Bakhmut has been destroyed.  I am sure both Russia and Ukraine will accuse the other side of doing it.

[dead0man]

Meanwhile some users here from a comfy suburb or whatever will be sitting at their chair, sipping their hot chocolate for the night. Demanding that Bakhmut be held at all costs:

cite?

[jaichind]

https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/10/politics/russia-iran-ukraine-weapons/index.html#:~:text=Russia%20has%20been%20capturing%20some,with%20the%20matter%20told%20CNN.

"Russia has been sending some US-provided weapons captured in Ukraine to Iran, sources say"

I guess Iran will try to reverse engineer these weapons

[jaichind]

https://variety.com/2023/film/news/volodymyr-zelensky-ukraine-oscars-appearance-russia-1235547499/

"Oscars Reject Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s Bid to Appear on Telecast (EXCLUSIVE)"

Does not Zelensky have a war to run? How come he is constantly trying to show up at these types of events?

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://variety.com/2023/film/news/volodymyr-zelensky-ukraine-oscars-appearance-russia-1235547499/

"Oscars Reject Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s Bid to Appear on Telecast (EXCLUSIVE)"

Does not Zelensky have a war to run? How come he is constantly trying to show up at these types of events?

Because the military runs the war not him. Part of the reason Ukraine has done so well is the Zelensky let’s the military run the war while he goes abroad to build public support as opposition were Putin runs the military operations