Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Cassius]

If you want to be critical of Ukrainian military preparedness, here's a Canadian colonel:

AT = anti-tank, KZ = kill zone

https://www.worldaffairsboard.com/forum/international-defense-geopolitics-discussion/europe-and-russia/1578933-2021-2022-russo-ukrainian-crisis/page3#post1580107

I have a very low view of the Ukranian military. Ok, the high tech stuff they have an excuse for but there is absolutely no reason why shovel and concrete have not been used to their fullest extent. The Ukrainians had over 6 years to prepare. There is ONE fortified trench in the south. There should be at least 3. The Soviets built up Kursk against three German armies in 6 months. The UKR had over a year since last uproar and not one single AT minefield had been laid. Not one single KZ has been set out.

There is zero doubt in my mind that the UKR is extremely capable of repelling the Russians. All it takes is a will which they are lacking. The Iraqis did a better job in Kuwait than the Ukrainians are doing now. Why the Iraqis failed is that they did not obey the Soviet tenet that as soon as the Americans hit your lines, rush forward. It's not like the Ukrainians are lacking in military expertise. They have senior leadership that came out of the same Soviet military academies as the Russians.

The Ukrainians should have absolute confidence that they can repel the Russians. The fact that they don't says more of their unwillingness than of their incapabilities.

There is something else being ignored. This is NOT about Moscow against Kiev as much as Kiev supporters like to pretend otherwise. This is about Russian speaking Ukrainians vs Ukraninian speaking Ukrainians. This is brother against brother and it's the damndest ugliest kind of war. It takes a lot to get family to bloodlust for each other and once that hate sets in, pride and ego is the only thing keeping a man from going insane about killing his own brother. Pride and ego is the only thing stopping you from killing your own kids after you killed your brother.

So, to answer your question, how capable are the Ukrainians in conducting a prolonged insurgency. Very capable. Just as capable as the Ukrainians are in suppressing it.

This is nonsense. The vast majority of Russian speakers in Ukraine do not support a Russian invasion.

Correct. On the other hand, they are less likely to put up serious resistance to a Russian invasion and would be the key base of support for a ‘puppet government’ (although I don’t think a puppet government is especially likely).

[Cassius]

I’m surprised that Truss didn’t bring a balalaika and start doing the gopak in Red Square.

[Cassius]

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1494104754137542659

Very British thing to do.

Code name of source: Debussy

[Cassius]

Imposing sanctions simply because Russia chose to recognise Donetsk and Luhansk would be a very odd (and unprecedented?) manouevre.

[Cassius]

People are slagging off Russian Bear but he’s hardly taken a especially pro-Putin position in this thread.

[Cassius]

But by framing this as a "peace-keeping operation" to protect the separatist republics, the farther Russian troops get from those republics, the less justification Putin has for Russians dying on their behalf.

If you watched Putin's speech, he made it pretty clear that all this was about much more than peacekeeping and Donetsk and Luhansk.

He also said much of the same things nearly a year ago https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_the_Historical_Unity_of_Russians_and_Ukrainians


For anyone that wants to understand the background and has not already done so, I would recommend watching Putin's speech from earlier and/or reading his essay from last year.

Ultimately this will be Putin's justification, the peacekeeping etc is just a small peace of the puzzle, one little step in his plan.


It would be a lot better if you are correct, however, so hopefully you are!

Just to be clear, I have no doubt at all Putin wants full Russian control over Ukraine, Belarus, and as much of the former USSR/Russian imperial sphere of influence as he can dream of. I just don't think he's fooling himself into thinking he can achieve full Russian domination of Ukraine under the current circumstances, at least not without a heck of a lot of risk to his personal position that I don't think he's willing to put up. If he gets eastern Ukraine, his popularity remains high, and Russia's military remains strong and motivated, I have no doubt he'll move on to trying to subsume somewhere else, either in Ukraine or elsewhere, just as a subsequent campaign and not a concurrent one.

Mostly agree, but I'm not even sure about it>

If he gets eastern Ukraine, his popularity remains high

A lot of people here/in western press totally misjudge the unpopularity of Donbas war and today's "annexation". Crimea was extremely popular, both among Russians and Crimeans. Donbas never was.

I'm not saying, Putin's #'s will tank, but in longer run it certainly hurt him, even though, perhaps, only by a little. Both War, surroundings actions AND sanctions are unpopular.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1495886501535793155

This, of course, is the reason why the ‘Putin is weak, he’s doing this to gin up domestic popularity’ thesis is nonsense on stilts.

[Cassius]

https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1495896613386133512

Sounds to me like US intel is expecting an all out invasion today/tonight, and that not even Lviv will be safe from that. Or at the very least, they are treating that possibility as credible enough to entirely evacuate all the American diplomats that they previously evacuated to Lviv. I bet that is what those US planes and helicopters that were spotted near the Poland-Ukraine border were doing.

Why is the USA doing this?  Even in an all-out Russian invasion leading to the capture of Kyiv, a Russian assault on the USA embassy is tantamount to a declaration of war.  When the Taliban took over Kabul the USA embassy was not attacked.  If the USA wants to move its embassy to Lviv if Kyiv is captured by the Russians and the Ukrainian government relocates to Lviv that would make sense.  And then if the Russians capture Lviv and the Ukrainian government moves to become a government in exile it makes sense for the USA to move with it.  But it does not make sense to move the USA embassy to Lviv now let alone outside Ukraine.

Presumably in the case of bombing/and/or other accidents caused by artillery/armour.

[Cassius]

author=Cody link=topic=469771.msg8490038#msg8490038 date=1645522330 uid=33856]
If I were Zelensky I'd be doing everything in my power to get my hands on nukes as quickly as possible.

That would be a sure fire way to ensure that the Russian army goes storming into Kiev. Really to me it seems as though Zelensky’s behaviour has been the one of the proximate causes of the present situation, as I think his crackdown on Medvedchuk (as we know, a close friend of Putin) and the other pro Russian forces in the country has been responsible for spurring Putin into action during the last year.

The other proximate cause is presumably Putin’s perception that Biden is in fact all talk and no trousers as regards foreign policy (see Afghanistan) and that he isn’t willing to go further in any circumstance than sanctions (which Russia can survive, although at cost). Put these two factors together and it actually makes sense as to why this conflict has suddenly unfrozen, although my own personal opinion is that a Russian attempt to occupy all of Ukraine, with the view to detaching further territory and installing a pro-Kremlin government would be seriously unwise. But then who knows what Putin’s end game really is. My original assumption was that the plan was to force Zelensky to end the crackdown on the pro-Russian forces and commit once more to multi-vectoral foreign policy (as with Kuchma, Yuschenko and Yanukoych), but now it seems likely that Russia will go well beyond that.

[Cassius]

Regime change in Moscow must now be the end goal. This requires stepping up cyber and information warfare efforts significantly, including the requisition of the services of all major social media companies. Clandestine funding of opposition groups in Russia with siginificant sums has become imperarative. Everything Russia has accused the West of in the past must now be done for real, and multiplied times ten.

Ah, and is there any way to suspend a country from the UN security council? I guess China could veto it, but that doesn't hinder all other countries to boycott Russia's attendence and meet in their absence.

So how are you going to get funds to ‘opposition groups’ if you also support draconian sanctions to cut the Russian economy off from the West? How will you prevent the Kremlin from impounding these funds? Most importantly, what ‘regime’ do you want to bring in in Moscow? Who will it be comprised of? Will the army be on board? The security services? How will you make it legitimate to those Russians who aren’t emigrés or living in the Petersburg/Moscow bubble?

I think this escalation by Putin may well be an overreach that brings harm to the Russian people as well as those of the Ukraine. Nonetheless, talk of the West attempting ‘regime’ change in Russia  is foolish and irresponsible, especially if it percolates up to people holding actual positions on power in western countries.

[Cassius]

https://twitter.com/RichardEngel/status/1496860722059517958

Chernobyl tweets earlier appear to be misinfo, thank God.

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1496862540957114370?s=20&t=EbnxU7MIRU...

I suspect anything to do with Chernobyl is just bs to draw the attention of westerners, given that Chernobyl is one of the few things about Ukraine that most westerners are familiar with.

[Cassius]

How many people calling for Russia to be cut off from SWIFT actually know what SWIFT is? Does Boris Johnson know what SWIFT is?

[Cassius]

How many people calling for Russia to be cut off from SWIFT actually know what SWIFT is? Does Boris Johnson know what SWIFT is?

I know what SWIFT is. Do you know what SWIFT is?

I know that cutting Russia off from SWIFT would cause western institutions harm as well as Russian ones, yes. Not something we want to be doing.

[Cassius]

How many people calling for Russia to be cut off from SWIFT actually know what SWIFT is? Does Boris Johnson know what SWIFT is?

I know what SWIFT is. Do you know what SWIFT is?

I know that cutting Russia off from SWIFT would cause western institutions harm as well as Russian ones, yes. Not something we want to be doing.

I invite you to consider the hit your portfolio might take if this revanchist, protofascist great power isn't halted.

Nothing to do with my ‘portfolio’. Suspending Russia’s access to SWIFT at short notice will cause chaos in a number of sectors (not least energy) both in Russia and the west. Given that this will not halt the Russian invasion of Ukraine, I believe that we should refrain from doing something with tremendous short term downside and no obvious upside.

[Cassius]

S&P 500 now up 0.7 on the day !!!  I guess the fear of something bad is always worse than that bad thing itself.

What does this have to do with the thread?

It matters because economic sanctions are a big part of the current struggle between Russia and collective west.  Financial markets be it equities FX energy etc etc gives you a glance with the likely economic impact of these sanctions are likely to have on the various economic players.

I was chatting with a colleague about the recovery in the market in the afternoon, and there's another possibility for it that this forum is not going to like: Ukraine collapses and surrenders very quickly, there is minimal destruction and bloodshed (because they lost so fast), and we're back to BAU before long.

Reading some market commentary just now I get the same vibe as well.  I am not claiming that the equity traders know more than anyone else but they will put the time into understanding what is going on since they have money in the game.

I mean it’s very difficult to know what the Hell is going on because neither side (obviously) can be trusted to give a fully accurate account of the situation, whilst information from other sources is highly fragmentary and needs to be taken with a tank turret full of salt. It seems at the moment as though Ukraine is doing better than some predicted, but that doesn’t change the massive overall imbalance in forces between the two sides, which should suggest a Russian victory fairly soon. Much seems to be being made of the Russians appearing to make heavy work of it against the Ukrainian forces stationed in the east of the country, but those were the best dug in and best prepared (and presumably have the most combat experience). If the Russians slice the country in two by driving up from Crimea and down from Sumy, then they’re f’d.

As you say, if we do get the quick victory then whatever happens in the market will most likely be a blip (on the western exchanges).

[Cassius]

I’m pretty sure these Russian troops who are currently engaged are the professionals (the Russian army is much less reliant on conscripts than it once was), which makes me highly sceptical of these reports of surrendering and low morale (especially since that’s obviously the kind of impression the Ukrainian government would want to create).

[Cassius]

The purpose of the 'Ukraine is winning' discourse being peddled by various Ukrainian government officials and other outlets is to keep morale as high as possible, perfectly understandably. On the other hand people should really stop sharing these isolated and/or unconfirmed reports of Ukrainian 'fighter aces' and supposedly fleeing Russian troops. It's the hope that gets you.

[Cassius]

The Ukrainian leadership are, broadly speaking, a fair bit younger than their Russian counterparts and count a number of ‘performers’ (not least Zelensky and Klitschko) in their ranks, so between that and the fact they’ve operated in a semi-democratic environment for a number of years it’s not surprising that they’re better at PR than the Russians (also helps that many western outlets are happy to uncritically repeat anything they say).

[Cassius]

Apparently China is Ukraine’s largest investor. Second largest export partner. And largest import partner.


China doesn’t care what happens to Russia or Ukraine. Only their bottom line. Their Bottom line will be hurt if Putin continues his schemes.

And if China openly backs Russia, the Western world will cut off acccess For Chinese businessmen.

Lol.

[Cassius]

What is Putin's long-term plan, right now? Does anyone have anything but a vague idea? He's pointed out what he doesn't like about the status quo, but what does he intend to do with Ukraine? Does Putin himself even know yet?

This is a tough one to answer as the decision making process in the Kremlin is so opaque (and then there’s the impossibility of making a window into Putin’s soul). I’d assume that the ‘ideal’ outcome from Putin’s perspective would be a neutered Ukraine, with the door shut forever on the possibility of EU and NATO membership, alongside incorporation into Russian dominated regional structures (Eurasian Economic Union et al) and recognition of Crimea as part of Russia and of the independence of the Donbas republics. The problem is, in order for such a settlement to stick you’d need a reasonably pro-Russian government in what’s left of Ukraine, which seems very unlikely, so then that gives rise to the scenario of a permanent Russian military occupation in the country in order to prop such a government up, which I don’t think is ideal from Putin’s perspective. I think there’s certainly a big element of ‘making it up as he goes along’ here.

Edit: re the Donbas republics, if the above scenario did pan out it would actually make far more sense for them to be reincorporated into Ukraine in order to increase the size of the Russian speaking population and give more weight to the part of the country with the closest economic ties to Russia. The Donbas republics have realistically been a net negative for Putin’s influence in Ukraine as their detachment from the rest of the country has weakened the pro-Russian side of Ukrainian politics.

[Cassius]

At this rate the Ukrainians are probably going to get boxed in inside Kiev and in the Donbas (with a few other cities possibly holding out too), which will be a serious complication as far as resupply is concerned and will render Western promises of equipment essentially moot. Nonetheless, given the speed at which things are happening in terms of the broader political situation (both in the West and in Russia), if they hold out for long enough Russia may be forced to the negotiating table, particularly if things start getting hairy as far the Russian financial system goes.

[Cassius]

We should sanction the hell out of Belarus too and fund a potential coop there

Well it shouldn’t cost to much to fund a chicken coop.

[Cassius]

While I used to be able to sympathize with some of Putin's views on certain issues, now I just can't. Putin is 100% without a doubt a war criminal now and I do not sympathize with war criminals! I still don't support US troops in Ukraine and hope that both sides can find a solution rather quickly, which sadly looks pretty unlikely at this point.

Just thought I'd give my two cents.

 I am trying to restrain myself from hyperbole in asking this, but on what possible issues could one agree with Vladimir Putin on? Serious question.

Bringing stability to your country and raising it up from being an Oligarch dominated disaster zone like Russia in the 1990s or the United States.

[Cassius]

When was the last time any Russian government extradited somebody for war crimes? Unless the Special Forces are planning to penetrate Russia and extradite the Russian leadership I think the chances of any Russian going to trial for war crimes are about the same as Jack the Ripper facing a trial by jury.

[Cassius]

You guys do realize that many Ukrainians, including women and children, are acting calmer than you are while they are huddled up in their bomb shelters with missiles flying overhead?

The same is true for the demoralized Russian 19-year-olds who are being forced to march in as cannon fodder.

Calm your tits

Things like this are always an opportunity for a certain type of person to show off how much they care about their 'values' by living vicariously through a conflict far, far away. It was exactly the same with the Afghanistan debacle seven months ago.

[Cassius]

https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-raises-equivalent-277-million-154154581.html

"Ukraine Raises Equivalent of $277 Million From Sale of War Bonds"

Not that much but impressive never the less for a government that there is a reasonable chance might not exist or exist in a much more degraded form as to not be able to pay in a few weeks.

What fund buys Ukrainian bonds at this time?!? They probably won’t be honoured even if Ukraine holds on.

Meanwhile, the economic situation is getting pretty hairy in Russia. Sister-in-law spent a long time queuing for cash yesterday. If there isn’t substantive further progress for the Russians in Ukraine in the next few days than I foresee serious problems for Putin.