Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1633120002780831745?s=20

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1633120002780831745?s=20

History is made each and every day.
Nice to see Ukraine is getting the help it needs.

[lfromnj]

https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2023/03/07/moscow-kyiv-carry-out-prisoner-swap-90-prisoners-of-war-return-to-russia-130-come-back-to-ukraine-en-news

Why is Russia agreeing to unequal trades of prisoners?

[Logical]

https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2023/03/07/moscow-kyiv-carry-out-prisoner-swap-90-prisoners-of-war-return-to-russia-130-come-back-to-ukraine-en-news

Why is Russia agreeing to unequal trades of prisoners?

Usually because the Russian prisoners exchanged are of a higher rank and value than Ukrainian ones. Pilots, Colonels, FSB etc

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

While the pro-Russia clowns like Woodbury and Jaichind and the Not Pro Russia *wink* people like Punxsutawney Phil are moving the goalposts for when a town the size of Utica falls after losing more than the entire pre-war population taking it, the the researchers in Russia are working hard to develop new weapons to fight the evil (((Westerners)))

https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1633073333792129024

[Woody]

Bakhmut at the moment has a lot of spotlight, but another place worth mentioning is Avdiivka. The Russian Army is trying to replicate a cauldron or semi-encirclement of the town, as they are doing in Bakhmut right now.

They made recent progress towards Krasnohorivka's outskirts and north of Vodiane, and have now captured Vesele.

https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1633259477859196930
https://twitter.com/Cyberspec1/status/1633363480618348544

[Woody]

Andrew doesn't think Ukraine is going to do a spring-offensive or an offensive in the near future. Predicts Russia will be weakened in June/July due to to armored vehicles shortages (BTRs and whatnot) and trained infantry (he also thinks more Russian mobilized soldiers will come, but still not as combat ready by then), then Ukraine will go on the attack. Maybe come as late as Autumn.

[jaichind]

Ukraine magazine on the "value" of each Ukraine oblast.  Looking at this map, after Russia clears Donbas, they should target the rest of Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk, and Kharkov from a ROI point of view.

[Woody]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1633233092969103360
https://mobile.twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1633385757544005633
https://mobile.twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1633425492538798082

[Person Man]

https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2023/03/07/moscow-kyiv-carry-out-prisoner-swap-90-prisoners-of-war-return-to-russia-130-come-back-to-ukraine-en-news

Why is Russia agreeing to unequal trades of prisoners?

Don’t think about it too hard.

[jaichind]

https://menafn.com/1105731702/Ukrainian-lawmaker-proposes-legalizing-same-sex-civil-partnerships-to-reward-LGBTQ-soldiers-please-foreign-backers

"Ukrainian lawmaker proposes legalizing same-sex civil partnerships to reward LGBTQ soldiers, please foreign backers"

Sovsun argued that Ukrainian society has matured beyond the “Russian swamp” and Soviet worldview, and that Ukraine values human dignity and freedom, making Ukrainians “simply a different biological species” than Russians

This Ukraine MP does not seem to know that the current Western Left-woke propaganda line is "there is no such thing as race, it is all just a social construct"

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/indias-oil-deals-with-russia-dent-decades-old-dollar-dominance-2023-03-08/

"India's oil deals with Russia dent decades-old dollar dominance"

India-Russia oil trade is the beginning of the long-term trend away from the petrodollar.

[jaichind]

From

https://twitter.com/GarlandNixon/status/1633512573508243457

[Hindsight was 2020]

From

https://twitter.com/GarlandNixon/status/1633512573508243457

And why would anyone want that Putin bootlicker has to say?

[CumbrianLefty]

Seems like an unusually pointless post even for them.

[2952-0-0]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/indias-oil-deals-with-russia-dent-decades-old-dollar-dominance-2023-03-08/

"India's oil deals with Russia dent decades-old dollar dominance"

India-Russia oil trade is the beginning of the long-term trend away from the petrodollar.

Just one problem: the Indian Rupees that the Russians have received can't be converted to any other currency, and the Russians are struggling to find any Indian products to buy. The two are circumventing this issue by trading in UAE Dirhams, which is - you guessed it - pegged to the dollar.

https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2023/03/06/neft-v-obmen-na-fantiki-rossiiskie-kompanii-ne-znayut-kuda-det-poluchennie-iz-indii-rupii-a35903

[jaichind]

https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/07/europe/ukraine-volodymyr-zelensky-cnn-interview-bakhmut-intl/index.html

"Exclusive: Zelensky warns of ‘open road’ through Ukraine’s east if Russia captures Bakhmut, as he resists calls to retreat"

Ukraine's position on how important Bakhmut is seems to keep on changing.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Seems like an unusually pointless post even for them.

Honestly, it's pretty wholesome. Memes are great. We need more memes.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://menafn.com/1105731702/Ukrainian-lawmaker-proposes-legalizing-same-sex-civil-partnerships-to-reward-LGBTQ-soldiers-please-foreign-backers

"Ukrainian lawmaker proposes legalizing same-sex civil partnerships to reward LGBTQ soldiers, please foreign backers"

Sovsun argued that Ukrainian society has matured beyond the “Russian swamp” and Soviet worldview, and that Ukraine values human dignity and freedom, making Ukrainians “simply a different biological species” than Russians

This Ukraine MP does not seem to know that the current Western Left-woke propaganda line is "there is no such thing as race, it is all just a social construct"

The logic of this quote is as bizarre as the "If Russia's leader was a woman, Russia would not have invaded Ukraine" line from Boris last year.

[jaichind]

My understanding is that after Tuesday the mud situation in Bakhmut will get worse since even nighttime temperature will be above freezing which will make any movement outside of roads very difficult, especially when bringing equipment.

https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-a-fight-to-the-death-in-bakhmut-with-both-sides-bogged-in-the-spring-thaw-201251

"Ukraine war: a fight to the death in Bakhmut with both sides bogged in the spring thaw"

It does seem that what I thought would take place after Tuesday did take place.  Everything is turning into mud in Bakhmut.

The good news for Ukraine is that Russia's ability to move to encircle Bakhmut will be slowed down.  The bad news is that this makes any retreat from Bakhmut very difficult for Ukraine.  In many ways, this might by itself justify Ukraine's plan to try to hold on.  Namely, the Russian advance will slow down, and trying to retreat just means you get wiped out on the roads or get stuck in the mud in the open fields outside the roads.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/TruthPuke/status/1633513142507704320

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-says-nord-stream-attacks-may-be-false-flag-smear-ukraine-2023-03-08/

"West cautious on Nord Stream blasts, Germany confirms raiding suspect ship"

... Germany suggesting the attack could also have been a "false flag" operation to blame Ukraine.

Nord Stream 2 sabotage talking points go full circle.  New theory: It was a Russian false flag to frame Ukraine.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/TruthPuke/status/1633513142507704320

Aww, so wholesome!

I bet those men certainly don't work for a genocidal state you have a fetish for.

[Frodo]

Russia is close to the end, sans China:

Russia Cannot Regain Momentum in Ukraine Without Help, U.S. Intel Warns
A new U.S. intelligence assessment comes at a pivotal time for Ukraine as it rushes its most effective resources into the otherwise insignificant town of Bakhmut.

Russia does not have the manpower, the ammunition, the logistics or the will to mount a large-scale offensive in Ukraine – unless a powerful international backer comes to its aid, the top U.S. intelligence officer said Wednesday, identifying perhaps the two most critical realities that will define the war there this year and beyond.

Avril Haines, the director of national intelligence, offered the assessment to the Senate Intelligence Committee on Wednesday morning, testifying alongside the other top U.S. civilian and military intelligence chiefs as part of a hearing to discuss her office’s latest “threat assessment,” the annual document governing America’s national security priorities around the globe.

[jaichind]

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20230309-%F0%9F%94%B4-live-russia-launches-airstrikes-on-cities-across-ukraine

"Russia launches deadly air strikes on multiple cities across Ukraine"

Looks like another round of missile attacks.  This time this includes a bunch of Kinzhal hypersonic missiles which as basically uninterceptable